Opinion Poll by Sentio for Nyheter Idag, 5–10 April 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti 31.0% 25.9% 24.3–27.7% 23.8–28.2% 23.4–28.6% 22.7–29.4%
Sverigedemokraterna 12.9% 21.4% 19.9–23.1% 19.5–23.5% 19.1–23.9% 18.4–24.7%
Moderata samlingspartiet 23.3% 20.1% 18.6–21.7% 18.2–22.1% 17.8–22.5% 17.1–23.3%
Vänsterpartiet 5.7% 8.3% 7.3–9.4% 7.0–9.8% 6.8–10.1% 6.4–10.6%
Centerpartiet 6.1% 6.4% 5.5–7.4% 5.3–7.7% 5.1–8.0% 4.7–8.5%
Miljöpartiet de gröna 6.9% 4.4% 3.7–5.3% 3.5–5.6% 3.4–5.8% 3.0–6.2%
Liberalerna 5.4% 4.4% 3.7–5.3% 3.5–5.6% 3.4–5.8% 3.0–6.2%
Feministiskt initiativ 3.1% 3.1% 2.5–3.8% 2.3–4.1% 2.2–4.3% 2.0–4.6%
Kristdemokraterna 4.6% 2.4% 1.9–3.1% 1.8–3.3% 1.7–3.5% 1.5–3.9%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti 113 100 92–108 90–109 88–112 84–115
Sverigedemokraterna 49 82 75–90 74–92 72–94 69–97
Moderata samlingspartiet 84 77 71–84 68–86 67–88 64–92
Vänsterpartiet 21 32 28–36 27–37 26–39 24–41
Centerpartiet 22 25 21–29 20–30 19–31 18–33
Miljöpartiet de gröna 25 17 0–20 0–21 0–22 0–24
Liberalerna 19 17 0–20 0–21 0–22 0–24
Feministiskt initiativ 0 0 0 0–15 0–16 0–17
Kristdemokraterna 16 0 0 0 0 0

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 99.9%  
83 0.1% 99.9%  
84 0.3% 99.7%  
85 0.4% 99.5%  
86 0.7% 99.1%  
87 0.8% 98%  
88 0.9% 98%  
89 0.9% 97%  
90 1.0% 96%  
91 3% 95%  
92 3% 92%  
93 5% 90%  
94 2% 85%  
95 10% 83%  
96 11% 73%  
97 3% 62%  
98 3% 60%  
99 5% 56%  
100 7% 51% Median
101 9% 44%  
102 3% 35%  
103 4% 32%  
104 8% 29%  
105 4% 21%  
106 3% 17%  
107 3% 14%  
108 2% 11%  
109 4% 9%  
110 0.9% 5%  
111 1.0% 4%  
112 0.9% 3%  
113 0.4% 2% Last Result
114 0.3% 1.4%  
115 0.7% 1.1%  
116 0.1% 0.5%  
117 0.1% 0.4%  
118 0.1% 0.3%  
119 0% 0.1%  
120 0% 0.1%  
121 0% 0.1%  
122 0% 0.1%  
123 0% 0%  

Sverigedemokraterna

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sverigedemokraterna page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0% 100% Last Result
50 0% 100%  
51 0% 100%  
52 0% 100%  
53 0% 100%  
54 0% 100%  
55 0% 100%  
56 0% 100%  
57 0% 100%  
58 0% 100%  
59 0% 100%  
60 0% 100%  
61 0% 100%  
62 0% 100%  
63 0% 100%  
64 0% 100%  
65 0% 100%  
66 0% 100%  
67 0.1% 99.9%  
68 0.1% 99.8%  
69 0.2% 99.6%  
70 0.5% 99.4%  
71 0.7% 98.9%  
72 1.1% 98%  
73 2% 97%  
74 3% 95%  
75 2% 92%  
76 3% 90%  
77 6% 86%  
78 3% 81%  
79 5% 78%  
80 6% 73%  
81 10% 66%  
82 11% 57% Median
83 3% 46%  
84 9% 43%  
85 4% 34%  
86 8% 30%  
87 6% 22%  
88 3% 17%  
89 2% 14%  
90 4% 11%  
91 0.9% 7%  
92 1.3% 6%  
93 2% 5%  
94 0.8% 3%  
95 1.2% 2%  
96 0.3% 1.2%  
97 0.4% 0.9%  
98 0.2% 0.5%  
99 0.2% 0.3%  
100 0% 0.2%  
101 0% 0.1%  
102 0% 0.1%  
103 0% 0.1%  
104 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Moderata samlingspartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0% 100%  
62 0.1% 99.9%  
63 0.1% 99.9%  
64 0.3% 99.8%  
65 0.5% 99.4%  
66 1.3% 99.0%  
67 2% 98%  
68 2% 96%  
69 1.2% 94%  
70 2% 93%  
71 4% 91%  
72 5% 88%  
73 6% 83%  
74 5% 77%  
75 8% 72%  
76 11% 64%  
77 5% 52% Median
78 7% 47%  
79 5% 40%  
80 4% 35%  
81 6% 31%  
82 7% 25%  
83 5% 18%  
84 5% 13% Last Result
85 1.4% 7%  
86 2% 6%  
87 1.1% 4%  
88 0.6% 3%  
89 0.6% 2%  
90 0.6% 2%  
91 0.3% 1.0%  
92 0.3% 0.6%  
93 0.1% 0.3%  
94 0.1% 0.2%  
95 0% 0.1%  
96 0% 0.1%  
97 0% 0%  

Vänsterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vänsterpartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0% 100% Last Result
22 0.1% 100%  
23 0.2% 99.9%  
24 0.4% 99.8%  
25 1.4% 99.3%  
26 1.1% 98%  
27 3% 97%  
28 9% 94%  
29 7% 85%  
30 10% 77%  
31 11% 67%  
32 8% 56% Median
33 8% 48%  
34 16% 39%  
35 8% 23%  
36 8% 15%  
37 3% 8%  
38 2% 5%  
39 0.8% 3%  
40 1.0% 2%  
41 0.4% 0.8%  
42 0.2% 0.5%  
43 0.1% 0.2%  
44 0.1% 0.1%  
45 0% 0%  

Centerpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Centerpartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0.1% 100%  
17 0.2% 99.9%  
18 0.8% 99.7%  
19 2% 98.9%  
20 3% 97%  
21 6% 94%  
22 7% 88% Last Result
23 10% 81%  
24 17% 71%  
25 10% 54% Median
26 16% 44%  
27 10% 28%  
28 8% 18%  
29 5% 10%  
30 2% 6%  
31 2% 3%  
32 0.6% 1.3%  
33 0.4% 0.7%  
34 0.2% 0.4%  
35 0.1% 0.2%  
36 0.1% 0.1%  
37 0% 0%  

Miljöpartiet de gröna

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljöpartiet de gröna page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 24% 100%  
1 0% 76%  
2 0% 76%  
3 0% 76%  
4 0% 76%  
5 0% 76%  
6 0% 76%  
7 0% 76%  
8 0% 76%  
9 0% 76%  
10 0% 76%  
11 0% 76%  
12 0% 76%  
13 0% 76%  
14 0% 76%  
15 2% 76%  
16 18% 74%  
17 15% 56% Median
18 16% 42%  
19 13% 25%  
20 6% 12%  
21 2% 6%  
22 2% 4%  
23 1.1% 2%  
24 0.7% 1.0%  
25 0.2% 0.3% Last Result
26 0% 0.1%  
27 0% 0%  

Liberalerna

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberalerna page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 23% 100%  
1 0% 77%  
2 0% 77%  
3 0% 77%  
4 0% 77%  
5 0% 77%  
6 0% 77%  
7 0% 77%  
8 0% 77%  
9 0% 77%  
10 0% 77%  
11 0% 77%  
12 0% 77%  
13 0% 77%  
14 0% 77%  
15 2% 77%  
16 18% 75%  
17 16% 57% Median
18 14% 41%  
19 13% 26% Last Result
20 5% 13%  
21 4% 8%  
22 2% 4%  
23 0.6% 2%  
24 0.7% 0.9%  
25 0.1% 0.2%  
26 0.1% 0.1%  
27 0% 0%  

Feministiskt initiativ

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Feministiskt initiativ page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 94% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 6%  
2 0% 6%  
3 0% 6%  
4 0% 6%  
5 0% 6%  
6 0% 6%  
7 0% 6%  
8 0% 6%  
9 0% 6%  
10 0% 6%  
11 0% 6%  
12 0% 6%  
13 0% 6%  
14 0.1% 6%  
15 2% 5%  
16 2% 3%  
17 0.8% 1.3%  
18 0.4% 0.5%  
19 0.1% 0.1%  
20 0% 0%  

Kristdemokraterna

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristdemokraterna page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.8% 100% Median
1 0% 0.2%  
2 0% 0.2%  
3 0% 0.2%  
4 0% 0.2%  
5 0% 0.2%  
6 0% 0.2%  
7 0% 0.2%  
8 0% 0.2%  
9 0% 0.2%  
10 0% 0.2%  
11 0% 0.2%  
12 0% 0.2%  
13 0% 0.2%  
14 0% 0.2%  
15 0.1% 0.2%  
16 0.1% 0.2% Last Result
17 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna – Feministiskt initiativ 159 146 0.1% 135–157 132–159 130–162 124–168
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna 159 145 0% 135–156 131–158 128–160 123–165
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet 134 131 0% 123–141 120–143 118–146 114–150
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna – Kristdemokraterna 141 117 0% 106–126 101–127 98–130 94–135
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna 125 117 0% 106–126 101–127 98–130 94–135
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Miljöpartiet de gröna 138 114 0% 104–123 99–125 96–127 92–132
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna 122 102 0% 94–110 92–112 90–115 87–120
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet 106 102 0% 94–110 92–112 90–114 87–119

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna – Feministiskt initiativ

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
119 0.1% 100%  
120 0% 99.9%  
121 0% 99.9%  
122 0.1% 99.8%  
123 0.2% 99.7%  
124 0.2% 99.5%  
125 0.3% 99.3%  
126 0.6% 99.0%  
127 0.5% 98%  
128 0.1% 98%  
129 0.3% 98%  
130 1.5% 98%  
131 0.8% 96%  
132 0.7% 95%  
133 0.4% 95%  
134 2% 94%  
135 4% 92%  
136 3% 88%  
137 2% 86%  
138 1.4% 83%  
139 2% 82%  
140 2% 79%  
141 3% 77%  
142 5% 74%  
143 5% 69%  
144 4% 64%  
145 7% 60%  
146 3% 53%  
147 3% 50%  
148 10% 47%  
149 4% 37% Median
150 2% 33%  
151 2% 31%  
152 4% 30%  
153 5% 25%  
154 2% 21%  
155 5% 18%  
156 2% 13%  
157 2% 11%  
158 2% 9%  
159 2% 6% Last Result
160 1.0% 5%  
161 0.8% 4%  
162 0.5% 3%  
163 0.7% 2%  
164 0.2% 2%  
165 0.4% 1.4%  
166 0.2% 1.0%  
167 0.1% 0.7%  
168 0.1% 0.6%  
169 0.1% 0.5%  
170 0.1% 0.4%  
171 0% 0.4%  
172 0.1% 0.3%  
173 0.1% 0.2%  
174 0% 0.1%  
175 0% 0.1% Majority
176 0.1% 0.1%  
177 0% 0%  

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
117 0.1% 100%  
118 0% 99.9%  
119 0.1% 99.9%  
120 0.1% 99.8%  
121 0% 99.8%  
122 0.1% 99.7%  
123 0.3% 99.6%  
124 0.2% 99.3%  
125 0.3% 99.1%  
126 0.6% 98.8%  
127 0.6% 98%  
128 0.2% 98%  
129 0.4% 97%  
130 2% 97%  
131 0.8% 95%  
132 0.8% 95%  
133 0.5% 94%  
134 2% 93%  
135 4% 91%  
136 3% 87%  
137 2% 84%  
138 2% 82%  
139 3% 80%  
140 2% 77%  
141 4% 75%  
142 6% 71%  
143 5% 65%  
144 4% 60%  
145 7% 57%  
146 4% 49%  
147 3% 45%  
148 10% 43%  
149 4% 33% Median
150 2% 29%  
151 2% 27%  
152 4% 26%  
153 4% 21%  
154 1.3% 17%  
155 5% 15%  
156 2% 10%  
157 2% 8%  
158 2% 7%  
159 2% 5% Last Result
160 1.0% 3%  
161 0.4% 2%  
162 0.3% 2%  
163 0.6% 2%  
164 0.2% 1.0%  
165 0.3% 0.8%  
166 0.2% 0.5%  
167 0.1% 0.3%  
168 0.1% 0.2%  
169 0.1% 0.1%  
170 0% 0.1%  
171 0% 0.1%  
172 0.1% 0.1%  
173 0% 0%  

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 99.9%  
112 0.1% 99.9%  
113 0.2% 99.8%  
114 0.2% 99.6%  
115 0.5% 99.4%  
116 0.3% 98.9%  
117 0.4% 98.6%  
118 0.8% 98%  
119 2% 97%  
120 1.1% 96%  
121 1.1% 95%  
122 2% 94%  
123 4% 91%  
124 3% 87%  
125 3% 85%  
126 4% 82%  
127 4% 78%  
128 3% 74%  
129 8% 71%  
130 13% 63%  
131 3% 50%  
132 2% 47% Median
133 2% 45%  
134 4% 43% Last Result
135 6% 39%  
136 11% 33%  
137 4% 22%  
138 2% 18%  
139 2% 17%  
140 3% 15%  
141 3% 12%  
142 0.8% 8%  
143 3% 8%  
144 0.7% 4%  
145 1.0% 4%  
146 0.5% 3%  
147 1.0% 2%  
148 0.2% 1.1%  
149 0.3% 0.9%  
150 0.1% 0.5%  
151 0.1% 0.4%  
152 0.1% 0.3%  
153 0.1% 0.2%  
154 0.1% 0.2%  
155 0% 0.1%  
156 0% 0.1%  
157 0% 0.1%  
158 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna – Kristdemokraterna

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 99.9%  
91 0% 99.9%  
92 0.1% 99.9%  
93 0.2% 99.8%  
94 0.2% 99.6%  
95 0.4% 99.5%  
96 0.5% 99.1%  
97 0.6% 98.6%  
98 1.0% 98%  
99 0.8% 97%  
100 0.7% 96%  
101 0.7% 96%  
102 0.6% 95%  
103 0.9% 94%  
104 1.3% 93%  
105 0.8% 92%  
106 4% 91%  
107 2% 87%  
108 4% 86%  
109 3% 81%  
110 4% 78%  
111 3% 74%  
112 3% 72%  
113 2% 68%  
114 4% 66%  
115 6% 61%  
116 4% 56%  
117 3% 52%  
118 4% 49%  
119 3% 45% Median
120 11% 42%  
121 4% 31%  
122 5% 28%  
123 4% 23%  
124 5% 18%  
125 2% 13%  
126 3% 11%  
127 3% 8%  
128 0.9% 5%  
129 0.7% 4%  
130 1.1% 3%  
131 0.6% 2%  
132 0.3% 2%  
133 0.5% 1.2%  
134 0.1% 0.7%  
135 0.2% 0.6%  
136 0.1% 0.4%  
137 0.1% 0.3%  
138 0% 0.1%  
139 0% 0.1%  
140 0% 0.1%  
141 0% 0.1% Last Result
142 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 99.9%  
91 0% 99.9%  
92 0.1% 99.9%  
93 0.2% 99.8%  
94 0.2% 99.6%  
95 0.4% 99.4%  
96 0.5% 99.1%  
97 0.6% 98.6%  
98 1.0% 98%  
99 0.8% 97%  
100 0.7% 96%  
101 0.7% 96%  
102 0.6% 95%  
103 0.9% 94%  
104 1.3% 93%  
105 0.8% 92%  
106 4% 91%  
107 2% 87%  
108 4% 86%  
109 3% 81%  
110 4% 78%  
111 3% 74%  
112 3% 71%  
113 2% 68%  
114 4% 66%  
115 6% 61%  
116 4% 56%  
117 3% 52%  
118 4% 49%  
119 3% 45% Median
120 11% 42%  
121 4% 31%  
122 5% 27%  
123 4% 23%  
124 5% 18%  
125 2% 13% Last Result
126 3% 11%  
127 3% 8%  
128 0.9% 5%  
129 0.7% 4%  
130 1.1% 3%  
131 0.6% 2%  
132 0.3% 2%  
133 0.5% 1.2%  
134 0.1% 0.7%  
135 0.1% 0.5%  
136 0.1% 0.4%  
137 0.1% 0.3%  
138 0% 0.1%  
139 0% 0.1%  
140 0% 0.1%  
141 0% 0.1%  
142 0% 0%  

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Miljöpartiet de gröna

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 99.9%  
90 0.1% 99.9%  
91 0.1% 99.7%  
92 0.3% 99.6%  
93 0.2% 99.4%  
94 0.4% 99.2%  
95 0.9% 98.8%  
96 0.6% 98%  
97 1.2% 97%  
98 0.6% 96%  
99 0.7% 96%  
100 1.2% 95%  
101 2% 94%  
102 0.9% 92%  
103 0.9% 91%  
104 3% 90%  
105 3% 87%  
106 3% 84%  
107 2% 81%  
108 3% 78%  
109 5% 75%  
110 3% 70%  
111 5% 67%  
112 6% 62%  
113 3% 56%  
114 11% 53%  
115 2% 42%  
116 2% 40%  
117 8% 38% Median
118 5% 30%  
119 7% 25%  
120 2% 18%  
121 2% 16%  
122 3% 14%  
123 1.2% 11%  
124 3% 9%  
125 2% 7%  
126 1.2% 5%  
127 1.5% 4%  
128 0.9% 2%  
129 0.3% 1.4%  
130 0.3% 1.1%  
131 0.3% 0.9%  
132 0.3% 0.5%  
133 0.1% 0.3%  
134 0.1% 0.2%  
135 0% 0.1%  
136 0% 0.1%  
137 0% 0.1%  
138 0% 0% Last Result

Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 99.9%  
84 0% 99.9%  
85 0.2% 99.9%  
86 0.1% 99.7%  
87 0.1% 99.6%  
88 0.4% 99.4%  
89 0.7% 99.1%  
90 1.2% 98%  
91 1.4% 97%  
92 3% 96%  
93 1.5% 92%  
94 2% 91%  
95 3% 89%  
96 3% 85%  
97 3% 82%  
98 5% 80%  
99 6% 75%  
100 5% 69%  
101 7% 64%  
102 10% 57% Median
103 3% 47%  
104 6% 44%  
105 7% 38%  
106 6% 31%  
107 2% 25%  
108 9% 23%  
109 4% 14%  
110 3% 11%  
111 2% 8%  
112 2% 6%  
113 1.4% 5%  
114 0.7% 3%  
115 1.0% 3%  
116 0.3% 2%  
117 0.3% 1.2%  
118 0.3% 0.9%  
119 0.1% 0.7%  
120 0.1% 0.5%  
121 0.1% 0.4%  
122 0.2% 0.3% Last Result
123 0% 0.2%  
124 0.1% 0.1%  
125 0% 0.1%  
126 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 99.9%  
84 0% 99.9%  
85 0.2% 99.9%  
86 0.1% 99.7%  
87 0.1% 99.6%  
88 0.4% 99.4%  
89 0.7% 99.0%  
90 1.2% 98%  
91 1.4% 97%  
92 3% 96%  
93 1.5% 92%  
94 2% 91%  
95 3% 89%  
96 3% 85%  
97 3% 82%  
98 5% 80%  
99 6% 75%  
100 5% 69%  
101 7% 64%  
102 10% 57% Median
103 3% 47%  
104 6% 44%  
105 7% 37%  
106 6% 31% Last Result
107 2% 25%  
108 9% 23%  
109 4% 14%  
110 3% 11%  
111 2% 8%  
112 2% 6%  
113 1.4% 5%  
114 0.7% 3%  
115 1.0% 2%  
116 0.3% 1.5%  
117 0.3% 1.1%  
118 0.3% 0.9%  
119 0.1% 0.6%  
120 0.1% 0.5%  
121 0% 0.4%  
122 0.2% 0.3%  
123 0% 0.2%  
124 0.1% 0.1%  
125 0% 0.1%  
126 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations