Opinion Poll by Sifo for Svenska Dagbladet, 2–12 April 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti 31.0% 28.3% 27.7–29.0% 27.6–29.1% 27.4–29.3% 27.1–29.6%
Moderata samlingspartiet 23.3% 23.0% 22.4–23.5% 22.2–23.7% 22.1–23.8% 21.8–24.1%
Sverigedemokraterna 12.9% 14.8% 14.3–15.3% 14.2–15.4% 14.1–15.5% 13.8–15.8%
Centerpartiet 6.1% 9.7% 9.3–10.1% 9.2–10.2% 9.1–10.3% 8.9–10.5%
Vänsterpartiet 5.7% 8.1% 7.7–8.5% 7.6–8.6% 7.5–8.7% 7.4–8.9%
Liberalerna 5.4% 4.4% 4.1–4.7% 4.0–4.8% 4.0–4.8% 3.9–5.0%
Miljöpartiet de gröna 6.9% 4.1% 3.8–4.4% 3.7–4.5% 3.7–4.5% 3.6–4.7%
Kristdemokraterna 4.6% 3.4% 3.2–3.7% 3.1–3.7% 3.0–3.8% 2.9–3.9%
Feministiskt initiativ 3.1% 2.6% 2.4–2.8% 2.3–2.9% 2.3–3.0% 2.2–3.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti 113 108 105–114 104–114 104–114 103–117
Moderata samlingspartiet 84 88 84–92 84–93 84–94 82–96
Sverigedemokraterna 49 56 55–59 54–60 53–61 53–62
Centerpartiet 22 37 35–40 34–40 34–41 33–41
Vänsterpartiet 21 31 29–33 29–34 28–34 28–35
Liberalerna 19 17 16–18 15–18 0–19 0–19
Miljöpartiet de gröna 25 15 0–17 0–17 0–17 0–18
Kristdemokraterna 16 0 0 0 0 0
Feministiskt initiativ 0 0 0 0 0 0

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
101 0.1% 100%  
102 0.2% 99.9%  
103 1.3% 99.7%  
104 5% 98%  
105 11% 93%  
106 9% 83%  
107 18% 73%  
108 9% 55% Median
109 5% 46%  
110 8% 41%  
111 6% 34%  
112 7% 28%  
113 10% 21% Last Result
114 9% 11%  
115 1.4% 2%  
116 0.4% 1.0%  
117 0.3% 0.6%  
118 0% 0.3%  
119 0.1% 0.3%  
120 0% 0.2%  
121 0.1% 0.1%  
122 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Moderata samlingspartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
81 0.1% 100%  
82 0.5% 99.9%  
83 1.2% 99.4%  
84 8% 98% Last Result
85 9% 90%  
86 9% 81%  
87 9% 72%  
88 17% 63% Median
89 12% 46%  
90 10% 34%  
91 11% 24%  
92 6% 13%  
93 3% 7%  
94 3% 4%  
95 0.4% 1.0%  
96 0.4% 0.6%  
97 0.1% 0.2%  
98 0.1% 0.1%  
99 0% 0%  

Sverigedemokraterna

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sverigedemokraterna page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0% 100% Last Result
50 0% 100%  
51 0.1% 100%  
52 0.4% 99.9%  
53 4% 99.6%  
54 5% 96%  
55 15% 91%  
56 30% 76% Median
57 14% 46%  
58 11% 32%  
59 11% 20%  
60 5% 9%  
61 3% 4%  
62 0.4% 0.8%  
63 0.3% 0.4%  
64 0% 0.1%  
65 0% 0.1%  
66 0% 0%  

Centerpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Centerpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0% 100% Last Result
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0% 100%  
28 0% 100%  
29 0% 100%  
30 0% 100%  
31 0% 100%  
32 0% 100%  
33 0.5% 100%  
34 5% 99.5%  
35 16% 95%  
36 14% 78%  
37 26% 64% Median
38 19% 38%  
39 8% 18%  
40 7% 10%  
41 3% 3%  
42 0.2% 0.4%  
43 0.1% 0.1%  
44 0% 0%  

Vänsterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vänsterpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0% 100% Last Result
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0.1% 100%  
28 3% 99.9%  
29 9% 97%  
30 13% 88%  
31 28% 75% Median
32 27% 47%  
33 13% 20%  
34 6% 7%  
35 1.0% 1.0%  
36 0% 0.1%  
37 0% 0%  

Liberalerna

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberalerna page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 3% 100%  
1 0% 97%  
2 0% 97%  
3 0% 97%  
4 0% 97%  
5 0% 97%  
6 0% 97%  
7 0% 97%  
8 0% 97%  
9 0% 97%  
10 0% 97%  
11 0% 97%  
12 0% 97%  
13 0% 97%  
14 0% 97%  
15 3% 97%  
16 33% 94%  
17 36% 61% Median
18 21% 25%  
19 4% 4% Last Result
20 0.2% 0.2%  
21 0% 0%  

Miljöpartiet de gröna

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljöpartiet de gröna page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 35% 100%  
1 0% 65%  
2 0% 65%  
3 0% 65%  
4 0% 65%  
5 0% 65%  
6 0% 65%  
7 0% 65%  
8 0% 65%  
9 0% 65%  
10 0% 65%  
11 0% 65%  
12 0% 65%  
13 0% 65%  
14 0% 65%  
15 18% 65% Median
16 35% 46%  
17 10% 12%  
18 1.2% 1.2%  
19 0% 0%  
20 0% 0%  
21 0% 0%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0% Last Result

Kristdemokraterna

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristdemokraterna page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.9% 100% Median
1 0% 0.1%  
2 0% 0.1%  
3 0% 0.1%  
4 0% 0.1%  
5 0% 0.1%  
6 0% 0.1%  
7 0% 0.1%  
8 0% 0.1%  
9 0% 0.1%  
10 0% 0.1%  
11 0% 0.1%  
12 0% 0.1%  
13 0% 0.1%  
14 0% 0.1%  
15 0.1% 0.1%  
16 0% 0% Last Result

Feministiskt initiativ

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Feministiskt initiativ page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna – Feministiskt initiativ 159 152 0% 144–156 143–157 142–159 140–163
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna 159 152 0% 144–156 143–157 142–159 140–163
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna – Kristdemokraterna 141 141 0% 138–147 136–148 132–149 128–151
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna 125 141 0% 137–147 136–148 131–149 128–151
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet 134 139 0% 135–147 135–147 134–147 133–149
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna 122 125 0% 122–130 121–131 120–132 119–135
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet 106 125 0% 122–130 121–131 120–132 118–134
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Miljöpartiet de gröna 138 121 0% 112–125 110–126 110–127 108–130

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna – Feministiskt initiativ

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
138 0% 100%  
139 0.2% 99.9%  
140 0.8% 99.7%  
141 0.8% 98.9%  
142 3% 98%  
143 3% 95%  
144 8% 92%  
145 6% 84%  
146 3% 78%  
147 8% 74%  
148 1.4% 66%  
149 2% 65%  
150 2% 63%  
151 8% 60%  
152 8% 53%  
153 10% 45%  
154 18% 35% Median
155 6% 17%  
156 4% 11%  
157 3% 7%  
158 1.0% 4%  
159 1.4% 3% Last Result
160 0.4% 2%  
161 0.3% 1.2%  
162 0.2% 0.9%  
163 0.5% 0.6%  
164 0.1% 0.1%  
165 0% 0%  

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
138 0% 100%  
139 0.2% 99.9%  
140 0.8% 99.7%  
141 0.8% 98.9%  
142 3% 98%  
143 3% 95%  
144 8% 92%  
145 6% 84%  
146 3% 78%  
147 8% 74%  
148 1.4% 66%  
149 2% 65%  
150 2% 63%  
151 8% 60%  
152 8% 53%  
153 10% 45%  
154 18% 35% Median
155 6% 17%  
156 4% 11%  
157 3% 7%  
158 1.0% 4%  
159 1.4% 3% Last Result
160 0.4% 2%  
161 0.3% 1.2%  
162 0.2% 0.9%  
163 0.5% 0.6%  
164 0.1% 0.1%  
165 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna – Kristdemokraterna

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
126 0.1% 100%  
127 0.1% 99.9%  
128 0.7% 99.8%  
129 1.0% 99.1%  
130 0.5% 98%  
131 0.2% 98%  
132 0.3% 98%  
133 0.2% 97%  
134 0.4% 97%  
135 0.6% 97%  
136 2% 96%  
137 4% 94%  
138 6% 90%  
139 19% 84%  
140 6% 65%  
141 13% 59% Last Result
142 7% 46% Median
143 5% 39%  
144 3% 34%  
145 7% 31%  
146 8% 24%  
147 9% 15%  
148 3% 6%  
149 2% 4%  
150 0.8% 1.4%  
151 0.4% 0.6%  
152 0.1% 0.2%  
153 0% 0.1%  
154 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
125 0% 100% Last Result
126 0.1% 100%  
127 0.1% 99.9%  
128 0.7% 99.8%  
129 1.0% 99.1%  
130 0.5% 98%  
131 0.2% 98%  
132 0.3% 97%  
133 0.2% 97%  
134 0.5% 97%  
135 0.6% 97%  
136 2% 96%  
137 4% 94%  
138 6% 90%  
139 19% 84%  
140 6% 65%  
141 13% 59%  
142 7% 46% Median
143 5% 39%  
144 3% 34%  
145 7% 30%  
146 8% 23%  
147 9% 15%  
148 3% 6%  
149 2% 4%  
150 0.7% 1.3%  
151 0.4% 0.6%  
152 0.1% 0.1%  
153 0% 0%  

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
131 0.1% 100%  
132 0.2% 99.9%  
133 2% 99.7%  
134 3% 98% Last Result
135 5% 95%  
136 13% 90%  
137 5% 76%  
138 11% 71%  
139 13% 60% Median
140 6% 47%  
141 3% 40%  
142 4% 38%  
143 5% 33%  
144 8% 28%  
145 6% 20%  
146 4% 14%  
147 9% 10%  
148 0.8% 2%  
149 0.5% 0.9%  
150 0.1% 0.4%  
151 0.1% 0.3%  
152 0.1% 0.3%  
153 0.1% 0.1%  
154 0% 0.1%  
155 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
118 0.4% 100%  
119 0.8% 99.5%  
120 3% 98.8%  
121 5% 96%  
122 14% 91% Last Result
123 16% 77%  
124 7% 60%  
125 10% 54% Median
126 7% 44%  
127 5% 37%  
128 10% 32%  
129 8% 22%  
130 6% 14%  
131 5% 9%  
132 2% 3%  
133 0.6% 1.4%  
134 0.3% 0.8%  
135 0.2% 0.5%  
136 0.1% 0.3%  
137 0.1% 0.2%  
138 0% 0.2%  
139 0.1% 0.2%  
140 0% 0.1%  
141 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
106 0% 100% Last Result
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 100%  
112 0% 100%  
113 0% 100%  
114 0% 100%  
115 0% 100%  
116 0% 100%  
117 0% 100%  
118 0.5% 99.9%  
119 0.8% 99.5%  
120 3% 98.7%  
121 5% 96%  
122 14% 91%  
123 16% 77%  
124 7% 60%  
125 10% 54% Median
126 7% 44%  
127 5% 36%  
128 10% 32%  
129 8% 22%  
130 6% 14%  
131 5% 8%  
132 2% 3%  
133 0.6% 1.3%  
134 0.3% 0.7%  
135 0.1% 0.4%  
136 0.1% 0.3%  
137 0.1% 0.2%  
138 0% 0.1%  
139 0.1% 0.1%  
140 0% 0.1%  
141 0% 0%  

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Miljöpartiet de gröna

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
106 0.1% 100%  
107 0.1% 99.9%  
108 0.5% 99.8%  
109 0.6% 99.3%  
110 4% 98.7%  
111 4% 95%  
112 6% 91%  
113 10% 85%  
114 8% 75%  
115 1.3% 67%  
116 0.4% 66%  
117 0.3% 65%  
118 0.5% 65%  
119 3% 64%  
120 5% 62%  
121 7% 57%  
122 19% 50%  
123 11% 31% Median
124 8% 20%  
125 4% 12%  
126 3% 8%  
127 3% 4%  
128 0.3% 2%  
129 0.2% 1.2%  
130 0.8% 1.0%  
131 0.1% 0.2%  
132 0.1% 0.1%  
133 0% 0%  
134 0% 0%  
135 0% 0%  
136 0% 0%  
137 0% 0%  
138 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations