Opinion Poll by SKOP, 16 March–13 April 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti 31.0% 26.7% 25.2–28.3% 24.7–28.7% 24.4–29.1% 23.7–29.9%
Moderata samlingspartiet 23.3% 25.1% 23.6–26.7% 23.2–27.1% 22.9–27.5% 22.2–28.3%
Sverigedemokraterna 12.9% 16.7% 15.4–18.0% 15.1–18.4% 14.8–18.8% 14.2–19.4%
Centerpartiet 6.1% 9.0% 8.1–10.1% 7.8–10.4% 7.6–10.7% 7.2–11.2%
Vänsterpartiet 5.7% 7.0% 6.2–8.0% 6.0–8.3% 5.8–8.5% 5.4–9.0%
Liberalerna 5.4% 5.1% 4.4–6.0% 4.2–6.2% 4.1–6.4% 3.7–6.9%
Kristdemokraterna 4.6% 4.3% 3.7–5.1% 3.5–5.3% 3.3–5.5% 3.0–5.9%
Miljöpartiet de gröna 6.9% 3.5% 2.9–4.2% 2.8–4.4% 2.6–4.6% 2.4–5.0%
Feministiskt initiativ 3.1% 2.3% 1.8–2.9% 1.7–3.1% 1.6–3.2% 1.4–3.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti 113 101 93–105 91–107 90–109 87–117
Moderata samlingspartiet 84 96 88–99 86–102 84–104 81–107
Sverigedemokraterna 49 65 57–68 57–69 55–70 52–74
Centerpartiet 22 35 31–37 29–38 28–40 27–42
Vänsterpartiet 21 26 23–30 22–31 21–32 20–34
Liberalerna 19 19 17–22 16–23 15–24 0–25
Kristdemokraterna 16 0 0–18 0–19 0–20 0–21
Miljöpartiet de gröna 25 0 0–15 0–16 0–16 0–18
Feministiskt initiativ 0 0 0 0 0 0

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
84 0.1% 100%  
85 0.1% 99.9%  
86 0.2% 99.8%  
87 0.6% 99.7%  
88 0.4% 99.1%  
89 0.9% 98.7%  
90 2% 98%  
91 3% 96%  
92 3% 93%  
93 2% 91%  
94 1.4% 89%  
95 1.2% 88%  
96 2% 87%  
97 3% 85%  
98 6% 82%  
99 6% 76%  
100 10% 71%  
101 14% 61% Median
102 9% 47%  
103 4% 38%  
104 2% 34%  
105 24% 32%  
106 2% 8%  
107 3% 7%  
108 0.9% 4%  
109 0.7% 3%  
110 0.5% 2%  
111 0.4% 2%  
112 0.3% 1.4%  
113 0.1% 1.1% Last Result
114 0.1% 1.0%  
115 0.1% 0.9%  
116 0.2% 0.8%  
117 0.6% 0.7%  
118 0% 0.1%  
119 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Moderata samlingspartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
78 0% 100%  
79 0.1% 99.9%  
80 0% 99.8%  
81 0.5% 99.8%  
82 0.4% 99.3%  
83 0.9% 98.9%  
84 0.6% 98% Last Result
85 1.3% 97%  
86 1.2% 96%  
87 4% 95%  
88 3% 91%  
89 3% 88%  
90 7% 85%  
91 2% 79%  
92 7% 76%  
93 7% 69%  
94 4% 62%  
95 5% 58%  
96 5% 53% Median
97 8% 48%  
98 4% 40%  
99 28% 36%  
100 2% 8%  
101 0.8% 6%  
102 2% 6%  
103 0.8% 3%  
104 0.5% 3%  
105 1.3% 2%  
106 0.1% 0.8%  
107 0.2% 0.7%  
108 0% 0.5%  
109 0.3% 0.4%  
110 0% 0.2%  
111 0% 0.1%  
112 0.1% 0.1%  
113 0% 0%  

Sverigedemokraterna

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sverigedemokraterna page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0% 100% Last Result
50 0.1% 100%  
51 0.1% 99.9%  
52 0.3% 99.8%  
53 0.4% 99.5%  
54 1.1% 99.0%  
55 1.0% 98%  
56 1.2% 97%  
57 6% 96%  
58 6% 90%  
59 4% 84%  
60 7% 80%  
61 9% 74%  
62 5% 65%  
63 5% 59%  
64 4% 54%  
65 29% 50% Median
66 2% 21%  
67 7% 19%  
68 6% 12%  
69 2% 6%  
70 2% 4%  
71 0.4% 2%  
72 0.7% 2%  
73 0.7% 1.4%  
74 0.4% 0.6%  
75 0% 0.2%  
76 0.1% 0.2%  
77 0% 0%  

Centerpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Centerpartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0% 100% Last Result
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0.1% 100%  
26 0.3% 99.9%  
27 0.7% 99.5%  
28 2% 98.8%  
29 3% 97%  
30 3% 95%  
31 15% 92%  
32 4% 77%  
33 15% 73%  
34 6% 59%  
35 7% 53% Median
36 28% 46%  
37 9% 17%  
38 4% 8%  
39 0.7% 4%  
40 0.8% 3%  
41 0.7% 2%  
42 1.1% 2%  
43 0.3% 0.4%  
44 0% 0.1%  
45 0% 0%  

Vänsterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vänsterpartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.1% 100%  
20 2% 99.9%  
21 1.1% 98% Last Result
22 2% 97%  
23 16% 95%  
24 7% 78%  
25 10% 71%  
26 29% 61% Median
27 10% 32%  
28 6% 22%  
29 4% 16%  
30 4% 12%  
31 4% 8%  
32 2% 3%  
33 0.9% 2%  
34 0.4% 0.7%  
35 0.2% 0.3%  
36 0.1% 0.1%  
37 0% 0%  

Liberalerna

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberalerna page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 2% 100%  
1 0% 98%  
2 0% 98%  
3 0% 98%  
4 0% 98%  
5 0% 98%  
6 0% 98%  
7 0% 98%  
8 0% 98%  
9 0% 98%  
10 0% 98%  
11 0% 98%  
12 0% 98%  
13 0% 98%  
14 0.2% 98%  
15 1.0% 98%  
16 5% 97%  
17 10% 92%  
18 30% 82%  
19 19% 52% Last Result, Median
20 10% 33%  
21 12% 23%  
22 5% 11%  
23 3% 6%  
24 2% 3%  
25 0.7% 1.0%  
26 0.2% 0.3%  
27 0.1% 0.1%  
28 0% 0%  

Kristdemokraterna

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristdemokraterna page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 55% 100% Median
1 0% 45%  
2 0% 45%  
3 0% 45%  
4 0% 45%  
5 0% 45%  
6 0% 45%  
7 0% 45%  
8 0% 45%  
9 0% 45%  
10 0% 45%  
11 0% 45%  
12 0% 45%  
13 0% 45%  
14 0% 45%  
15 4% 45%  
16 11% 41% Last Result
17 17% 30%  
18 6% 13%  
19 4% 7%  
20 2% 3%  
21 1.2% 2%  
22 0.3% 0.4%  
23 0.1% 0.2%  
24 0% 0%  

Miljöpartiet de gröna

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljöpartiet de gröna page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 79% 100% Median
1 0% 21%  
2 0% 21%  
3 0% 21%  
4 0% 21%  
5 0% 21%  
6 0% 21%  
7 0% 21%  
8 0% 21%  
9 0% 21%  
10 0% 21%  
11 0% 21%  
12 0% 21%  
13 0% 21%  
14 0.8% 21%  
15 13% 20%  
16 5% 7%  
17 1.3% 2%  
18 0.4% 0.6%  
19 0.1% 0.2%  
20 0% 0.1%  
21 0% 0%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0% Last Result

Feministiskt initiativ

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Feministiskt initiativ page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna – Kristdemokraterna 141 153 0.3% 148–167 145–168 143–171 138–174
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna 125 149 0% 140–153 136–155 133–158 129–162
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna 122 135 0% 128–146 126–149 124–152 118–155
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna – Feministiskt initiativ 159 131 0% 122–139 119–144 118–144 114–146
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna 159 131 0% 122–139 119–144 118–144 114–146
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet 106 130 0% 121–135 118–137 116–138 113–142
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet 134 128 0% 120–131 117–133 115–137 112–143
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Miljöpartiet de gröna 138 105 0% 97–116 92–118 91–118 89–120

Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna – Kristdemokraterna

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
135 0% 100%  
136 0.1% 99.9%  
137 0.1% 99.8%  
138 0.9% 99.8%  
139 0% 98.9%  
140 0.2% 98.8%  
141 0.1% 98.7% Last Result
142 0.9% 98.6%  
143 0.7% 98%  
144 0.9% 97%  
145 1.1% 96%  
146 1.1% 95%  
147 3% 94%  
148 2% 90%  
149 9% 89%  
150 2% 80% Median
151 2% 78%  
152 3% 76%  
153 26% 72%  
154 3% 47%  
155 0.9% 44%  
156 3% 43%  
157 3% 40%  
158 6% 37%  
159 1.4% 30%  
160 3% 29%  
161 3% 26%  
162 3% 23%  
163 4% 20%  
164 1.4% 16%  
165 2% 15%  
166 2% 14%  
167 5% 11%  
168 3% 7%  
169 1.0% 4%  
170 0.5% 3%  
171 0.7% 3%  
172 0.6% 2%  
173 0.7% 1.3%  
174 0.3% 0.6%  
175 0.2% 0.3% Majority
176 0.1% 0.2%  
177 0.1% 0.1%  
178 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
123 0% 100%  
124 0% 99.9%  
125 0% 99.9% Last Result
126 0.2% 99.9%  
127 0% 99.7%  
128 0.1% 99.7%  
129 0.3% 99.6%  
130 0.3% 99.3%  
131 0.5% 99.0%  
132 0.6% 98.5%  
133 0.5% 98%  
134 0.6% 97%  
135 1.0% 97%  
136 1.1% 96%  
137 1.3% 95%  
138 2% 93%  
139 1.4% 92%  
140 4% 90%  
141 5% 87%  
142 3% 81%  
143 2% 79%  
144 4% 77%  
145 3% 73%  
146 5% 70%  
147 5% 65%  
148 4% 61%  
149 9% 57%  
150 2% 48% Median
151 6% 45%  
152 4% 39%  
153 25% 35%  
154 4% 10%  
155 1.1% 6%  
156 0.9% 5%  
157 1.0% 4%  
158 0.5% 3%  
159 0.6% 2%  
160 1.0% 2%  
161 0.3% 0.8%  
162 0.3% 0.5%  
163 0.1% 0.2%  
164 0.1% 0.1%  
165 0% 0.1%  
166 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
118 0.8% 100%  
119 0.4% 99.1%  
120 0.1% 98.7%  
121 0.1% 98.6%  
122 0.1% 98.5% Last Result
123 0.2% 98%  
124 1.0% 98%  
125 1.0% 97%  
126 4% 96%  
127 0.8% 92%  
128 2% 92%  
129 2% 90%  
130 8% 88%  
131 0.8% 80% Median
132 2% 79%  
133 5% 77%  
134 2% 73%  
135 25% 71%  
136 3% 46%  
137 2% 43%  
138 7% 40%  
139 2% 33%  
140 2% 32%  
141 3% 29%  
142 2% 27%  
143 3% 25%  
144 2% 22%  
145 3% 20%  
146 7% 17%  
147 3% 10%  
148 1.0% 7%  
149 2% 6%  
150 0.6% 4%  
151 0.8% 3%  
152 0.8% 3%  
153 0.7% 2%  
154 0.5% 1.1%  
155 0.1% 0.6%  
156 0.2% 0.5%  
157 0% 0.3%  
158 0.1% 0.2%  
159 0.1% 0.1%  
160 0% 0.1%  
161 0% 0.1%  
162 0% 0%  

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna – Feministiskt initiativ

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
110 0.1% 100%  
111 0% 99.9%  
112 0% 99.9%  
113 0.3% 99.9%  
114 0.5% 99.6%  
115 0.1% 99.1%  
116 0.6% 98.9%  
117 0.6% 98%  
118 2% 98%  
119 1.4% 96%  
120 2% 94%  
121 2% 93%  
122 3% 91%  
123 4% 88%  
124 6% 83%  
125 4% 77%  
126 1.2% 73%  
127 5% 72% Median
128 6% 67%  
129 1.4% 61%  
130 6% 60%  
131 26% 54%  
132 4% 28%  
133 1.4% 24%  
134 1.4% 23%  
135 2% 21%  
136 1.2% 20%  
137 0.4% 18%  
138 0.8% 18%  
139 8% 17%  
140 0.7% 9%  
141 1.4% 9%  
142 0.5% 7%  
143 1.2% 7%  
144 5% 6%  
145 0.3% 0.9%  
146 0.1% 0.6%  
147 0.2% 0.5%  
148 0.1% 0.2%  
149 0% 0.2%  
150 0% 0.1%  
151 0.1% 0.1%  
152 0% 0%  
153 0% 0%  
154 0% 0%  
155 0% 0%  
156 0% 0%  
157 0% 0%  
158 0% 0%  
159 0% 0% Last Result

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
110 0.1% 100%  
111 0% 99.9%  
112 0% 99.9%  
113 0.3% 99.9%  
114 0.6% 99.6%  
115 0.1% 99.1%  
116 0.6% 98.9%  
117 0.6% 98%  
118 2% 98%  
119 1.4% 96%  
120 2% 94%  
121 2% 93%  
122 3% 91%  
123 4% 88%  
124 6% 83%  
125 4% 77%  
126 1.2% 73%  
127 5% 72% Median
128 6% 67%  
129 1.4% 61%  
130 6% 60%  
131 26% 54%  
132 4% 28%  
133 1.4% 24%  
134 1.4% 23%  
135 2% 21%  
136 1.2% 20%  
137 0.4% 18%  
138 0.8% 18%  
139 8% 17%  
140 0.7% 9%  
141 1.4% 9%  
142 0.5% 7%  
143 1.2% 7%  
144 5% 6%  
145 0.3% 0.9%  
146 0.1% 0.6%  
147 0.2% 0.5%  
148 0.1% 0.2%  
149 0% 0.2%  
150 0% 0.1%  
151 0.1% 0.1%  
152 0% 0%  
153 0% 0%  
154 0% 0%  
155 0% 0%  
156 0% 0%  
157 0% 0%  
158 0% 0%  
159 0% 0% Last Result

Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
106 0% 100% Last Result
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 99.9%  
111 0.1% 99.9%  
112 0.1% 99.8%  
113 0.2% 99.7%  
114 0.7% 99.4%  
115 0.2% 98.7%  
116 2% 98.6%  
117 0.3% 97%  
118 3% 97%  
119 2% 93%  
120 1.3% 92%  
121 6% 90%  
122 2% 85%  
123 1.1% 83%  
124 4% 82%  
125 3% 78%  
126 6% 75%  
127 4% 69%  
128 5% 65%  
129 6% 60%  
130 11% 54%  
131 1.0% 43% Median
132 3% 42%  
133 6% 38%  
134 0.6% 33%  
135 23% 32%  
136 4% 9%  
137 1.2% 5%  
138 2% 4%  
139 0.2% 2%  
140 0.4% 2%  
141 0.5% 1.1%  
142 0.1% 0.6%  
143 0.1% 0.4%  
144 0.1% 0.4%  
145 0.1% 0.2%  
146 0.1% 0.2%  
147 0% 0.1%  
148 0% 0.1%  
149 0.1% 0.1%  
150 0% 0%  

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 99.9%  
109 0% 99.9%  
110 0.2% 99.9%  
111 0.1% 99.7%  
112 0.3% 99.6%  
113 0.6% 99.3%  
114 1.0% 98.7%  
115 0.5% 98%  
116 1.2% 97%  
117 1.2% 96%  
118 2% 95%  
119 2% 93%  
120 3% 91%  
121 3% 88%  
122 3% 86%  
123 5% 82%  
124 13% 77%  
125 4% 64%  
126 2% 60%  
127 5% 58% Median
128 9% 52%  
129 3% 43%  
130 5% 40%  
131 26% 35%  
132 3% 9%  
133 1.1% 6%  
134 0.7% 5% Last Result
135 1.2% 4%  
136 0.5% 3%  
137 0.2% 3%  
138 0.3% 2%  
139 0.5% 2%  
140 0.4% 1.5%  
141 0.1% 1.1%  
142 0.1% 0.9%  
143 0.5% 0.9%  
144 0.2% 0.4%  
145 0% 0.1%  
146 0.1% 0.1%  
147 0% 0%  

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Miljöpartiet de gröna

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
86 0.1% 100%  
87 0.1% 99.9%  
88 0.1% 99.8%  
89 0.3% 99.6%  
90 1.3% 99.3%  
91 2% 98%  
92 2% 96%  
93 1.0% 94%  
94 0.6% 93%  
95 0.7% 92%  
96 0.9% 91%  
97 2% 90%  
98 5% 88%  
99 5% 83%  
100 9% 78%  
101 7% 69% Median
102 5% 62%  
103 3% 56%  
104 2% 53%  
105 24% 51%  
106 2% 27%  
107 4% 25%  
108 1.2% 22%  
109 2% 21%  
110 0.8% 19%  
111 1.5% 18%  
112 0.9% 17%  
113 0.5% 16%  
114 0.9% 15%  
115 0.4% 15%  
116 7% 14%  
117 2% 7%  
118 4% 5%  
119 0.8% 1.4%  
120 0.3% 0.6%  
121 0.1% 0.3%  
122 0.1% 0.2%  
123 0% 0.1%  
124 0% 0.1%  
125 0% 0.1%  
126 0% 0%  
127 0% 0%  
128 0% 0%  
129 0% 0%  
130 0% 0%  
131 0% 0%  
132 0% 0%  
133 0% 0%  
134 0% 0%  
135 0% 0%  
136 0% 0%  
137 0% 0%  
138 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations