Opinion Poll by Novus for SVT, 19 March–15 April 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti 31.0% 26.9% 26.1–27.7% 25.9–28.0% 25.7–28.2% 25.3–28.5%
Moderata samlingspartiet 23.3% 22.1% 21.4–22.9% 21.1–23.1% 21.0–23.3% 20.6–23.7%
Sverigedemokraterna 12.9% 18.2% 17.5–18.9% 17.3–19.1% 17.1–19.3% 16.8–19.7%
Centerpartiet 6.1% 9.2% 8.7–9.8% 8.5–9.9% 8.4–10.0% 8.2–10.3%
Vänsterpartiet 5.7% 8.1% 7.6–8.6% 7.5–8.8% 7.4–8.9% 7.1–9.2%
Liberalerna 5.4% 5.0% 4.6–5.4% 4.5–5.5% 4.4–5.6% 4.2–5.9%
Miljöpartiet de gröna 6.9% 4.0% 3.7–4.4% 3.6–4.5% 3.5–4.6% 3.3–4.8%
Kristdemokraterna 4.6% 3.5% 3.2–3.9% 3.1–4.0% 3.0–4.1% 2.9–4.2%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti 113 102 98–107 97–108 96–109 93–111
Moderata samlingspartiet 84 84 80–88 79–89 78–90 77–92
Sverigedemokraterna 49 69 66–72 65–73 64–74 63–76
Centerpartiet 22 35 33–37 32–38 31–38 31–39
Vänsterpartiet 21 30 28–34 28–34 27–35 27–36
Liberalerna 19 19 17–21 17–21 16–22 16–23
Miljöpartiet de gröna 25 15 0–17 0–17 0–17 0–18
Kristdemokraterna 16 0 0 0–15 0–15 0–15

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
91 0.1% 100%  
92 0.2% 99.9%  
93 0.3% 99.7%  
94 0.8% 99.5%  
95 1.1% 98.7%  
96 2% 98%  
97 4% 95%  
98 5% 91%  
99 9% 86%  
100 10% 78%  
101 9% 68%  
102 13% 59% Median
103 10% 46%  
104 9% 36%  
105 9% 27%  
106 6% 18%  
107 5% 12%  
108 2% 7%  
109 3% 5%  
110 1.0% 2%  
111 0.3% 0.5%  
112 0.2% 0.3%  
113 0% 0.1% Last Result
114 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Moderata samlingspartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
75 0.1% 100%  
76 0.3% 99.9%  
77 0.7% 99.6%  
78 1.5% 98.9%  
79 4% 97%  
80 6% 93%  
81 11% 88%  
82 11% 77%  
83 16% 66%  
84 12% 50% Last Result, Median
85 11% 38%  
86 7% 27%  
87 7% 20%  
88 4% 12%  
89 5% 8%  
90 2% 3%  
91 1.3% 2%  
92 0.4% 0.6%  
93 0.1% 0.2%  
94 0.1% 0.1%  
95 0% 0%  

Sverigedemokraterna

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sverigedemokraterna page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0% 100% Last Result
50 0% 100%  
51 0% 100%  
52 0% 100%  
53 0% 100%  
54 0% 100%  
55 0% 100%  
56 0% 100%  
57 0% 100%  
58 0% 100%  
59 0% 100%  
60 0% 100%  
61 0.1% 100%  
62 0.4% 99.9%  
63 1.0% 99.5%  
64 2% 98.5%  
65 5% 97%  
66 7% 91%  
67 9% 84%  
68 13% 75%  
69 17% 61% Median
70 10% 44%  
71 13% 34%  
72 11% 21%  
73 5% 10%  
74 3% 5%  
75 2% 2%  
76 0.6% 0.7%  
77 0.1% 0.1%  
78 0% 0%  

Centerpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Centerpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0% 100% Last Result
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0% 100%  
28 0% 100%  
29 0% 100%  
30 0.4% 100%  
31 2% 99.6%  
32 6% 97%  
33 16% 92%  
34 23% 76%  
35 23% 54% Median
36 16% 31%  
37 9% 15%  
38 4% 6%  
39 2% 2%  
40 0.3% 0.4%  
41 0.1% 0.1%  
42 0% 0%  

Vänsterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vänsterpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0% 100% Last Result
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0.2% 100%  
27 3% 99.8%  
28 12% 97%  
29 23% 85%  
30 20% 62% Median
31 12% 41%  
32 7% 30%  
33 10% 23%  
34 9% 13%  
35 3% 4%  
36 0.8% 0.8%  
37 0% 0%  

Liberalerna

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberalerna page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.2% 100%  
16 4% 99.8%  
17 14% 96%  
18 19% 81%  
19 28% 62% Last Result, Median
20 19% 34%  
21 11% 15%  
22 4% 5%  
23 0.5% 0.6%  
24 0.1% 0.1%  
25 0% 0%  

Miljöpartiet de gröna

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljöpartiet de gröna page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 46% 100%  
1 0% 54%  
2 0% 54%  
3 0% 54%  
4 0% 54%  
5 0% 54%  
6 0% 54%  
7 0% 54%  
8 0% 54%  
9 0% 54%  
10 0% 54%  
11 0% 54%  
12 0% 54%  
13 0% 54%  
14 0.3% 54%  
15 16% 53% Median
16 24% 37%  
17 12% 13%  
18 2% 2%  
19 0.1% 0.1%  
20 0% 0%  
21 0% 0%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0% Last Result

Kristdemokraterna

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristdemokraterna page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 94% 100% Median
1 0% 6%  
2 0% 6%  
3 0% 6%  
4 0% 6%  
5 0% 6%  
6 0% 6%  
7 0% 6%  
8 0% 6%  
9 0% 6%  
10 0% 6%  
11 0% 6%  
12 0% 6%  
13 0% 6%  
14 0.8% 6%  
15 5% 5%  
16 0.4% 0.5% Last Result
17 0.1% 0.1%  
18 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna 159 142 0% 134–148 132–149 131–150 128–152
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna – Kristdemokraterna 141 138 0% 133–145 132–147 131–149 130–151
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna 125 137 0% 133–143 132–145 131–146 128–148
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet 134 132 0% 127–139 126–140 125–140 123–142
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna 122 118 0% 115–126 114–128 113–130 112–133
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet 106 118 0% 114–124 113–126 112–127 110–128
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Miljöpartiet de gröna 138 112 0% 102–119 101–120 99–121 97–122

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
126 0.1% 100%  
127 0.1% 99.9%  
128 0.6% 99.7%  
129 0.5% 99.1%  
130 1.0% 98.6%  
131 1.5% 98%  
132 2% 96%  
133 4% 95%  
134 4% 91%  
135 6% 87%  
136 6% 82%  
137 5% 76%  
138 7% 71%  
139 6% 64%  
140 4% 58%  
141 3% 54%  
142 3% 51%  
143 5% 48%  
144 6% 43%  
145 5% 37%  
146 9% 32%  
147 7% 23% Median
148 8% 16%  
149 3% 8%  
150 3% 5%  
151 1.3% 2%  
152 0.5% 0.8%  
153 0.2% 0.3%  
154 0.1% 0.1%  
155 0% 0%  
156 0% 0%  
157 0% 0%  
158 0% 0%  
159 0% 0% Last Result

Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna – Kristdemokraterna

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
127 0% 100%  
128 0.1% 99.9%  
129 0.2% 99.9%  
130 0.6% 99.7%  
131 2% 99.1%  
132 4% 97%  
133 7% 94%  
134 9% 87%  
135 10% 78%  
136 11% 68%  
137 7% 57%  
138 5% 51% Median
139 9% 45%  
140 6% 37%  
141 6% 31% Last Result
142 6% 25%  
143 4% 19%  
144 3% 15%  
145 4% 13%  
146 2% 8%  
147 2% 6%  
148 0.9% 4%  
149 2% 3%  
150 0.6% 2%  
151 0.6% 1.0%  
152 0.2% 0.4%  
153 0.1% 0.3%  
154 0.1% 0.1%  
155 0% 0.1%  
156 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
125 0% 100% Last Result
126 0.1% 99.9%  
127 0.1% 99.9%  
128 0.5% 99.7%  
129 0.4% 99.3%  
130 1.1% 98.8%  
131 2% 98%  
132 4% 95%  
133 8% 91%  
134 10% 83%  
135 11% 73%  
136 11% 63%  
137 7% 52%  
138 5% 45% Median
139 9% 39%  
140 6% 31%  
141 6% 25%  
142 5% 18%  
143 3% 13%  
144 2% 10%  
145 4% 7%  
146 2% 4%  
147 1.1% 2%  
148 0.5% 0.8%  
149 0.2% 0.3%  
150 0% 0.1%  
151 0% 0%  

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
121 0.1% 100%  
122 0.2% 99.9%  
123 0.4% 99.7%  
124 0.6% 99.3%  
125 2% 98.8%  
126 3% 97%  
127 4% 94%  
128 7% 90%  
129 5% 83%  
130 12% 77%  
131 7% 66%  
132 9% 59% Median
133 8% 50%  
134 7% 42% Last Result
135 6% 35%  
136 7% 29%  
137 5% 22%  
138 7% 18%  
139 5% 11%  
140 3% 5%  
141 1.5% 2%  
142 0.6% 1.0%  
143 0.2% 0.4%  
144 0.1% 0.2%  
145 0% 0.1%  
146 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
109 0% 100%  
110 0.1% 99.9%  
111 0.3% 99.8%  
112 0.7% 99.6%  
113 2% 98.9%  
114 4% 97%  
115 8% 93%  
116 10% 84%  
117 9% 74%  
118 16% 65%  
119 10% 49% Median
120 8% 40%  
121 6% 32%  
122 5% 26% Last Result
123 3% 21%  
124 4% 18%  
125 3% 14%  
126 3% 11%  
127 2% 8%  
128 2% 6%  
129 1.4% 4%  
130 1.3% 3%  
131 0.7% 1.4%  
132 0.2% 0.7%  
133 0.3% 0.5%  
134 0.1% 0.2%  
135 0.1% 0.1%  
136 0% 0.1%  
137 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
106 0% 100% Last Result
107 0% 100%  
108 0.1% 99.9%  
109 0.1% 99.9%  
110 0.5% 99.7%  
111 0.8% 99.3%  
112 1.1% 98%  
113 3% 97%  
114 5% 94%  
115 9% 89%  
116 11% 79%  
117 9% 69%  
118 16% 59%  
119 10% 43% Median
120 8% 34%  
121 6% 25%  
122 5% 20%  
123 3% 15%  
124 4% 12%  
125 3% 9%  
126 3% 6%  
127 2% 3%  
128 0.8% 1.3%  
129 0.3% 0.5%  
130 0.1% 0.2%  
131 0% 0%  

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Miljöpartiet de gröna

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
95 0.1% 100%  
96 0.2% 99.9%  
97 0.6% 99.7%  
98 0.8% 99.1%  
99 1.2% 98%  
100 2% 97%  
101 2% 95%  
102 5% 93%  
103 5% 88%  
104 5% 83%  
105 7% 78%  
106 5% 71%  
107 5% 65%  
108 3% 60%  
109 4% 58%  
110 1.4% 54%  
111 2% 53%  
112 2% 51%  
113 4% 49%  
114 4% 45%  
115 7% 41%  
116 8% 35%  
117 6% 26% Median
118 9% 20%  
119 5% 11%  
120 4% 6%  
121 2% 3%  
122 0.6% 0.9%  
123 0.3% 0.4%  
124 0% 0.1%  
125 0% 0%  
126 0% 0%  
127 0% 0%  
128 0% 0%  
129 0% 0%  
130 0% 0%  
131 0% 0%  
132 0% 0%  
133 0% 0%  
134 0% 0%  
135 0% 0%  
136 0% 0%  
137 0% 0%  
138 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations