Opinion Poll by Ipsos for Dagens Nyheter, 12–23 April 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti 31.0% 26.0% 24.6–27.5% 24.2–27.9% 23.9–28.3% 23.2–29.0%
Moderata samlingspartiet 23.3% 21.0% 19.7–22.4% 19.3–22.8% 19.0–23.1% 18.4–23.8%
Sverigedemokraterna 12.9% 17.0% 15.8–18.3% 15.5–18.6% 15.2–18.9% 14.6–19.6%
Centerpartiet 6.1% 12.0% 11.0–13.1% 10.7–13.4% 10.5–13.7% 10.0–14.3%
Vänsterpartiet 5.7% 8.0% 7.2–9.0% 6.9–9.2% 6.7–9.5% 6.4–10.0%
Liberalerna 5.4% 5.0% 4.3–5.8% 4.1–6.0% 4.0–6.2% 3.7–6.6%
Miljöpartiet de gröna 6.9% 4.0% 3.4–4.7% 3.3–4.9% 3.1–5.1% 2.9–5.5%
Kristdemokraterna 4.6% 3.0% 2.5–3.7% 2.4–3.8% 2.3–4.0% 2.0–4.3%
Feministiskt initiativ 3.1% 2.0% 1.6–2.6% 1.5–2.7% 1.4–2.9% 1.3–3.2%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti 113 101 93–106 91–106 90–108 86–112
Moderata samlingspartiet 84 81 75–85 73–87 71–89 69–92
Sverigedemokraterna 49 65 60–70 59–71 57–72 55–75
Centerpartiet 22 46 42–50 41–52 39–53 38–55
Vänsterpartiet 21 31 27–34 26–35 26–36 24–38
Liberalerna 19 19 17–22 16–23 15–24 0–25
Miljöpartiet de gröna 25 0 0–17 0–18 0–19 0–20
Kristdemokraterna 16 0 0 0 0 0–16
Feministiskt initiativ 0 0 0 0 0 0

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
84 0% 100%  
85 0.1% 99.9%  
86 0.4% 99.8%  
87 0.3% 99.4%  
88 0.3% 99.2%  
89 0.9% 98.8%  
90 2% 98%  
91 1.0% 96%  
92 1.2% 95%  
93 5% 94%  
94 3% 89%  
95 3% 86%  
96 7% 83%  
97 4% 76%  
98 10% 72%  
99 4% 62%  
100 7% 58%  
101 6% 51% Median
102 6% 45%  
103 17% 38%  
104 3% 21%  
105 5% 19%  
106 10% 14%  
107 0.9% 4%  
108 0.6% 3%  
109 1.0% 2%  
110 0.4% 1.4%  
111 0.1% 1.0%  
112 0.4% 0.8%  
113 0.1% 0.4% Last Result
114 0.1% 0.3%  
115 0.1% 0.1%  
116 0% 0.1%  
117 0% 0.1%  
118 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Moderata samlingspartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0.1% 100%  
68 0.2% 99.9%  
69 0.6% 99.7%  
70 0.4% 99.1%  
71 1.2% 98.6%  
72 0.7% 97%  
73 4% 97%  
74 2% 93%  
75 7% 91%  
76 5% 84%  
77 4% 79%  
78 9% 74%  
79 7% 65%  
80 6% 59%  
81 8% 53% Median
82 12% 44%  
83 6% 32%  
84 4% 26% Last Result
85 13% 22%  
86 2% 9%  
87 2% 7%  
88 2% 5%  
89 0.9% 3%  
90 1.0% 2%  
91 0.4% 1.0%  
92 0.3% 0.6%  
93 0.1% 0.3%  
94 0.1% 0.2%  
95 0% 0.1%  
96 0% 0.1%  
97 0% 0%  

Sverigedemokraterna

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sverigedemokraterna page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0% 100% Last Result
50 0% 100%  
51 0% 100%  
52 0% 100%  
53 0% 100%  
54 0.2% 99.9%  
55 0.3% 99.8%  
56 0.6% 99.5%  
57 1.5% 98.9%  
58 1.4% 97%  
59 4% 96%  
60 7% 92%  
61 3% 85%  
62 9% 82%  
63 6% 72%  
64 9% 66%  
65 18% 57% Median
66 5% 39%  
67 8% 35%  
68 13% 27%  
69 4% 14%  
70 4% 10%  
71 2% 6%  
72 2% 4%  
73 0.6% 2%  
74 0.9% 2%  
75 0.5% 0.9%  
76 0.2% 0.4%  
77 0.1% 0.2%  
78 0.1% 0.1%  
79 0% 0%  

Centerpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Centerpartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0% 100% Last Result
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0% 100%  
28 0% 100%  
29 0% 100%  
30 0% 100%  
31 0% 100%  
32 0% 100%  
33 0% 100%  
34 0% 100%  
35 0% 100%  
36 0.1% 100%  
37 0.3% 99.9%  
38 0.9% 99.5%  
39 1.3% 98.7%  
40 2% 97%  
41 4% 95%  
42 5% 92%  
43 6% 86%  
44 12% 81%  
45 12% 69%  
46 13% 56% Median
47 16% 43%  
48 9% 27%  
49 7% 19%  
50 3% 11%  
51 3% 8%  
52 2% 5%  
53 1.5% 3%  
54 0.6% 1.3%  
55 0.3% 0.7%  
56 0.3% 0.4%  
57 0.1% 0.1%  
58 0% 0.1%  
59 0% 0%  

Vänsterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vänsterpartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0% 100% Last Result
22 0% 100%  
23 0.2% 99.9%  
24 0.6% 99.8%  
25 1.4% 99.2%  
26 3% 98%  
27 5% 95%  
28 5% 90%  
29 23% 84%  
30 11% 61%  
31 23% 51% Median
32 5% 27%  
33 8% 22%  
34 5% 14%  
35 5% 8%  
36 2% 3%  
37 1.0% 2%  
38 0.3% 0.6%  
39 0.2% 0.3%  
40 0.1% 0.1%  
41 0.1% 0.1%  
42 0% 0%  

Liberalerna

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberalerna page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 2% 100%  
1 0% 98%  
2 0% 98%  
3 0% 98%  
4 0% 98%  
5 0% 98%  
6 0% 98%  
7 0% 98%  
8 0% 98%  
9 0% 98%  
10 0% 98%  
11 0% 98%  
12 0% 98%  
13 0% 98%  
14 0% 98%  
15 0.8% 98%  
16 5% 97%  
17 6% 92%  
18 30% 86%  
19 11% 57% Last Result, Median
20 18% 46%  
21 14% 28%  
22 6% 13%  
23 3% 8%  
24 3% 4%  
25 1.0% 1.2%  
26 0.2% 0.2%  
27 0% 0%  

Miljöpartiet de gröna

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljöpartiet de gröna page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 53% 100% Median
1 0% 47%  
2 0% 47%  
3 0% 47%  
4 0% 47%  
5 0% 47%  
6 0% 47%  
7 0% 47%  
8 0% 47%  
9 0% 47%  
10 0% 47%  
11 0% 47%  
12 0% 47%  
13 0% 47%  
14 0% 47%  
15 7% 47%  
16 10% 40%  
17 21% 30%  
18 4% 9%  
19 3% 5%  
20 1.1% 1.4%  
21 0.3% 0.4%  
22 0.1% 0.1%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0% Last Result

Kristdemokraterna

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristdemokraterna page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 98% 100% Median
1 0% 2%  
2 0% 2%  
3 0% 2%  
4 0% 2%  
5 0% 2%  
6 0% 2%  
7 0% 2%  
8 0% 2%  
9 0% 2%  
10 0% 2%  
11 0% 2%  
12 0% 2%  
13 0% 2%  
14 0% 2%  
15 0.7% 2%  
16 0.6% 0.8% Last Result
17 0.2% 0.3%  
18 0% 0%  

Feministiskt initiativ

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Feministiskt initiativ page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna – Kristdemokraterna 141 146 0% 137–153 135–155 133–158 128–161
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna 125 146 0% 137–153 135–155 133–157 128–160
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna – Feministiskt initiativ 159 136 0% 130–149 129–149 127–150 122–154
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna 159 136 0% 130–149 129–149 127–150 122–154
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet 134 132 0% 123–135 120–137 119–140 116–145
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna 122 127 0% 119–134 117–136 116–138 113–141
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet 106 126 0% 119–132 117–135 116–138 113–141

Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna – Kristdemokraterna

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
123 0% 100%  
124 0% 99.9%  
125 0.1% 99.9%  
126 0% 99.8%  
127 0.1% 99.8%  
128 0.2% 99.7%  
129 0.1% 99.5%  
130 0.2% 99.4%  
131 0.4% 99.2%  
132 0.3% 98.8%  
133 1.1% 98.6%  
134 0.8% 97%  
135 3% 97%  
136 3% 94%  
137 2% 91%  
138 4% 90%  
139 3% 85%  
140 3% 83%  
141 6% 80% Last Result
142 4% 74%  
143 7% 70%  
144 3% 63%  
145 3% 60%  
146 15% 57% Median
147 5% 42%  
148 5% 38%  
149 2% 33%  
150 14% 31%  
151 2% 17%  
152 4% 16%  
153 2% 11%  
154 2% 10%  
155 3% 8%  
156 1.4% 5%  
157 0.8% 3%  
158 1.0% 3%  
159 0.5% 2%  
160 0.5% 1.1%  
161 0.1% 0.6%  
162 0.3% 0.4%  
163 0% 0.1%  
164 0% 0.1%  
165 0% 0.1%  
166 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
122 0% 100%  
123 0% 99.9%  
124 0% 99.9%  
125 0.1% 99.9% Last Result
126 0% 99.8%  
127 0.1% 99.8%  
128 0.2% 99.7%  
129 0.1% 99.4%  
130 0.2% 99.3%  
131 0.4% 99.1%  
132 0.4% 98.7%  
133 1.2% 98%  
134 0.8% 97%  
135 3% 96%  
136 3% 94%  
137 2% 91%  
138 5% 89%  
139 3% 85%  
140 3% 82%  
141 6% 79%  
142 4% 73%  
143 8% 69%  
144 3% 62%  
145 3% 59%  
146 15% 56% Median
147 5% 41%  
148 5% 36%  
149 2% 32%  
150 14% 30%  
151 2% 16%  
152 4% 15%  
153 1.4% 10%  
154 2% 9%  
155 3% 7%  
156 1.3% 4%  
157 0.7% 3%  
158 0.8% 2%  
159 0.3% 1.2%  
160 0.5% 0.9%  
161 0.1% 0.4%  
162 0.2% 0.3%  
163 0% 0.1%  
164 0% 0%  

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna – Feministiskt initiativ

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
119 0.1% 100%  
120 0.1% 99.9%  
121 0.1% 99.8%  
122 0.3% 99.6%  
123 0.4% 99.3%  
124 0.3% 98.9%  
125 0.6% 98.6%  
126 0.4% 98%  
127 0.5% 98%  
128 1.4% 97%  
129 3% 96%  
130 2% 92%  
131 2% 90%  
132 2% 88% Median
133 7% 87%  
134 17% 80%  
135 13% 63%  
136 3% 50%  
137 2% 47%  
138 2% 45%  
139 2% 43%  
140 3% 41%  
141 1.3% 38%  
142 2% 37%  
143 7% 35%  
144 5% 28%  
145 2% 23%  
146 1.1% 21%  
147 2% 20%  
148 8% 18%  
149 7% 10%  
150 2% 4%  
151 0.2% 2%  
152 0.3% 2%  
153 0.6% 1.4%  
154 0.5% 0.8%  
155 0.1% 0.3%  
156 0% 0.2%  
157 0.1% 0.2%  
158 0% 0.1%  
159 0% 0.1% Last Result
160 0% 0.1%  
161 0% 0%  

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
119 0.1% 100%  
120 0.1% 99.9%  
121 0.1% 99.8%  
122 0.3% 99.6%  
123 0.4% 99.3%  
124 0.3% 98.9%  
125 0.6% 98.6%  
126 0.4% 98%  
127 0.5% 98%  
128 1.4% 97%  
129 3% 96%  
130 2% 92%  
131 2% 90%  
132 2% 88% Median
133 7% 87%  
134 17% 80%  
135 13% 63%  
136 3% 50%  
137 2% 47%  
138 2% 45%  
139 2% 43%  
140 3% 41%  
141 1.3% 38%  
142 2% 37%  
143 7% 35%  
144 5% 28%  
145 2% 23%  
146 1.1% 21%  
147 2% 20%  
148 8% 18%  
149 7% 10%  
150 2% 4%  
151 0.2% 2%  
152 0.3% 2%  
153 0.6% 1.4%  
154 0.5% 0.8%  
155 0.1% 0.3%  
156 0% 0.2%  
157 0.1% 0.2%  
158 0% 0.1%  
159 0% 0.1% Last Result
160 0% 0.1%  
161 0% 0%  

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
113 0% 100%  
114 0% 99.9%  
115 0.2% 99.9%  
116 0.3% 99.7%  
117 0.6% 99.4%  
118 0.9% 98.8%  
119 2% 98%  
120 2% 96%  
121 1.3% 94%  
122 2% 93%  
123 2% 91%  
124 2% 88%  
125 3% 87%  
126 5% 84%  
127 5% 79%  
128 4% 74%  
129 5% 70%  
130 5% 65%  
131 6% 60%  
132 8% 53% Median
133 9% 45%  
134 17% 37% Last Result
135 10% 19%  
136 3% 9%  
137 1.1% 6%  
138 0.6% 4%  
139 0.9% 4%  
140 0.8% 3%  
141 0.5% 2%  
142 0.4% 2%  
143 0.3% 1.2%  
144 0.3% 0.9%  
145 0.2% 0.6%  
146 0.2% 0.4%  
147 0.2% 0.3%  
148 0% 0.1%  
149 0% 0.1%  
150 0% 0.1%  
151 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
110 0% 100%  
111 0.1% 99.9%  
112 0.1% 99.8%  
113 0.3% 99.7%  
114 0.4% 99.4%  
115 0.4% 99.0%  
116 2% 98.7%  
117 3% 97%  
118 1.4% 93%  
119 2% 92%  
120 8% 90%  
121 2% 81%  
122 7% 79% Last Result
123 6% 72%  
124 5% 66%  
125 3% 62%  
126 7% 58%  
127 3% 51% Median
128 13% 48%  
129 3% 35%  
130 2% 32%  
131 2% 30%  
132 17% 28%  
133 0.6% 11%  
134 3% 10%  
135 2% 8%  
136 2% 6%  
137 0.6% 4%  
138 2% 3%  
139 0.4% 2%  
140 0.2% 1.2%  
141 0.5% 1.0%  
142 0.2% 0.5%  
143 0% 0.3%  
144 0.1% 0.2%  
145 0.1% 0.2%  
146 0% 0.1%  
147 0% 0.1%  
148 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
106 0% 100% Last Result
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0.1% 100%  
110 0% 99.9%  
111 0.2% 99.9%  
112 0.1% 99.7%  
113 0.4% 99.6%  
114 0.5% 99.2%  
115 0.4% 98.8%  
116 2% 98%  
117 3% 96%  
118 1.5% 93%  
119 2% 91%  
120 8% 89%  
121 2% 81%  
122 7% 78%  
123 6% 71%  
124 5% 65%  
125 3% 60%  
126 7% 57%  
127 3% 50% Median
128 13% 47%  
129 3% 34%  
130 2% 31%  
131 2% 29%  
132 17% 27%  
133 0.5% 10%  
134 3% 9%  
135 2% 7%  
136 2% 5%  
137 0.4% 3%  
138 2% 3%  
139 0.3% 1.1%  
140 0.1% 0.8%  
141 0.4% 0.6%  
142 0.1% 0.2%  
143 0% 0.1%  
144 0% 0.1%  
145 0% 0.1%  
146 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations