Opinion Poll by Demoskop for Expressen, 24 April–2 May 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti 31.0% 26.3% 24.9–27.7% 24.5–28.1% 24.2–28.5% 23.6–29.2%
Moderata samlingspartiet 23.3% 22.3% 21.0–23.7% 20.6–24.1% 20.3–24.4% 19.7–25.1%
Sverigedemokraterna 12.9% 19.4% 18.2–20.7% 17.8–21.1% 17.5–21.4% 17.0–22.0%
Centerpartiet 6.1% 9.1% 8.2–10.1% 8.0–10.4% 7.8–10.6% 7.4–11.1%
Vänsterpartiet 5.7% 7.7% 6.9–8.6% 6.7–8.9% 6.5–9.1% 6.1–9.6%
Liberalerna 5.4% 4.9% 4.3–5.7% 4.1–5.9% 4.0–6.1% 3.7–6.5%
Miljöpartiet de gröna 6.9% 4.4% 3.8–5.1% 3.6–5.3% 3.5–5.5% 3.2–5.9%
Kristdemokraterna 4.6% 2.9% 2.4–3.5% 2.3–3.7% 2.2–3.8% 2.0–4.1%
Feministiskt initiativ 3.1% 1.5% 1.2–2.0% 1.1–2.1% 1.0–2.2% 0.9–2.4%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti 113 98 93–105 92–106 90–108 88–110
Moderata samlingspartiet 84 85 78–88 77–90 75–92 73–95
Sverigedemokraterna 49 73 68–78 67–80 65–80 63–83
Centerpartiet 22 34 31–38 30–38 29–39 28–42
Vänsterpartiet 21 29 26–32 25–33 25–34 23–36
Liberalerna 19 18 16–21 16–22 15–22 0–24
Miljöpartiet de gröna 25 16 0–19 0–19 0–20 0–21
Kristdemokraterna 16 0 0 0 0 0–15
Feministiskt initiativ 0 0 0 0 0 0

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
85 0% 100%  
86 0.1% 99.9%  
87 0.2% 99.8%  
88 0.7% 99.6%  
89 1.0% 98.9%  
90 1.3% 98%  
91 1.1% 97%  
92 4% 95%  
93 5% 91%  
94 15% 86%  
95 3% 71%  
96 3% 68%  
97 10% 65%  
98 7% 55% Median
99 6% 48%  
100 11% 42%  
101 5% 31%  
102 5% 26%  
103 7% 21%  
104 2% 13%  
105 3% 11%  
106 4% 7%  
107 0.8% 3%  
108 2% 3%  
109 0.3% 1.1%  
110 0.3% 0.7%  
111 0.1% 0.4%  
112 0.1% 0.2%  
113 0% 0.2% Last Result
114 0.1% 0.1%  
115 0% 0.1%  
116 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Moderata samlingspartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0% 100%  
72 0.2% 99.9%  
73 0.6% 99.8%  
74 0.4% 99.2%  
75 1.4% 98.8%  
76 0.6% 97%  
77 2% 97%  
78 7% 95%  
79 3% 88%  
80 4% 85%  
81 8% 81%  
82 6% 73%  
83 10% 67%  
84 5% 57% Last Result
85 15% 51% Median
86 10% 36%  
87 11% 26%  
88 7% 15%  
89 4% 9%  
90 2% 5%  
91 1.1% 4%  
92 0.4% 3%  
93 0.8% 2%  
94 0.3% 1.4%  
95 0.8% 1.1%  
96 0.1% 0.2%  
97 0% 0.1%  
98 0.1% 0.1%  
99 0% 0%  

Sverigedemokraterna

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sverigedemokraterna page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0% 100% Last Result
50 0% 100%  
51 0% 100%  
52 0% 100%  
53 0% 100%  
54 0% 100%  
55 0% 100%  
56 0% 100%  
57 0% 100%  
58 0% 100%  
59 0% 100%  
60 0.1% 100%  
61 0.1% 99.9%  
62 0.2% 99.9%  
63 0.4% 99.7%  
64 0.8% 99.3%  
65 2% 98.5%  
66 1.3% 97%  
67 5% 96%  
68 3% 91%  
69 7% 87%  
70 8% 81%  
71 10% 73%  
72 9% 63%  
73 6% 55% Median
74 13% 49%  
75 8% 36%  
76 6% 27%  
77 10% 22%  
78 3% 12%  
79 1.2% 9%  
80 6% 8%  
81 0.6% 2%  
82 0.9% 2%  
83 0.3% 0.7%  
84 0.2% 0.4%  
85 0.1% 0.2%  
86 0% 0.2%  
87 0.1% 0.1%  
88 0% 0.1%  
89 0% 0%  

Centerpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Centerpartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0% 100% Last Result
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0.1% 100%  
27 0.2% 99.9%  
28 0.8% 99.7%  
29 3% 98.9%  
30 4% 96%  
31 4% 92%  
32 6% 88%  
33 16% 82%  
34 26% 66% Median
35 17% 39%  
36 7% 23%  
37 4% 15%  
38 6% 11%  
39 3% 5%  
40 1.0% 2%  
41 0.5% 1.1%  
42 0.3% 0.6%  
43 0.2% 0.3%  
44 0.1% 0.2%  
45 0% 0%  

Vänsterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vänsterpartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0% 100% Last Result
22 0.2% 100%  
23 0.7% 99.8%  
24 1.4% 99.1%  
25 3% 98%  
26 11% 95%  
27 19% 84%  
28 7% 65%  
29 21% 58% Median
30 18% 37%  
31 5% 18%  
32 5% 13%  
33 5% 8%  
34 1.3% 3%  
35 0.9% 1.5%  
36 0.3% 0.5%  
37 0.1% 0.2%  
38 0.1% 0.1%  
39 0% 0%  

Liberalerna

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberalerna page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 2% 100%  
1 0% 98%  
2 0% 98%  
3 0% 98%  
4 0% 98%  
5 0% 98%  
6 0% 98%  
7 0% 98%  
8 0% 98%  
9 0% 98%  
10 0% 98%  
11 0% 98%  
12 0% 98%  
13 0% 98%  
14 0% 98%  
15 2% 98%  
16 7% 96%  
17 14% 89%  
18 26% 75% Median
19 11% 49% Last Result
20 11% 38%  
21 18% 26%  
22 6% 9%  
23 1.5% 2%  
24 0.7% 1.0%  
25 0.2% 0.3%  
26 0.1% 0.1%  
27 0% 0%  

Miljöpartiet de gröna

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljöpartiet de gröna page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 30% 100%  
1 0% 70%  
2 0% 70%  
3 0% 70%  
4 0% 70%  
5 0% 70%  
6 0% 70%  
7 0% 70%  
8 0% 70%  
9 0% 70%  
10 0% 70%  
11 0% 70%  
12 0% 70%  
13 0% 70%  
14 0% 70%  
15 8% 70%  
16 18% 63% Median
17 24% 45%  
18 10% 21%  
19 6% 11%  
20 3% 4%  
21 0.8% 1.1%  
22 0.3% 0.4%  
23 0.1% 0.1%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0% Last Result

Kristdemokraterna

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristdemokraterna page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.4% 100% Median
1 0% 0.6%  
2 0% 0.6%  
3 0% 0.6%  
4 0% 0.6%  
5 0% 0.6%  
6 0% 0.6%  
7 0% 0.6%  
8 0% 0.6%  
9 0% 0.6%  
10 0% 0.6%  
11 0% 0.6%  
12 0% 0.6%  
13 0% 0.6%  
14 0.1% 0.6%  
15 0.3% 0.5%  
16 0.2% 0.2% Last Result
17 0% 0.1%  
18 0% 0%  

Feministiskt initiativ

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Feministiskt initiativ page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna – Feministiskt initiativ 159 139 0% 130–148 130–149 128–152 122–155
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna 159 139 0% 130–148 130–149 128–152 122–155
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna – Kristdemokraterna 141 137 0% 131–142 128–145 126–147 120–151
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna 125 137 0% 130–142 128–145 126–146 119–150
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet 134 127 0% 121–134 119–136 118–138 115–141
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna 122 119 0% 112–124 110–126 109–128 107–132
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet 106 119 0% 112–123 110–126 109–128 107–131
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Miljöpartiet de gröna 138 111 0% 100–119 100–120 97–122 94–126

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna – Feministiskt initiativ

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
120 0.1% 100%  
121 0.1% 99.9%  
122 0.3% 99.8%  
123 0.1% 99.5%  
124 0.3% 99.4%  
125 0.3% 99.1%  
126 0.2% 98.7%  
127 1.0% 98.5%  
128 0.8% 98%  
129 0.7% 97%  
130 12% 96%  
131 2% 84%  
132 1.2% 83%  
133 4% 82%  
134 1.2% 77%  
135 4% 76%  
136 4% 72%  
137 4% 68%  
138 13% 64%  
139 4% 51%  
140 4% 47%  
141 7% 43%  
142 4% 36%  
143 5% 32% Median
144 5% 27%  
145 4% 22%  
146 3% 18%  
147 3% 15%  
148 6% 12%  
149 2% 6%  
150 1.1% 4%  
151 0.4% 3%  
152 1.4% 3%  
153 0.3% 1.2%  
154 0.2% 0.9%  
155 0.2% 0.7%  
156 0.2% 0.5%  
157 0% 0.2%  
158 0.1% 0.2%  
159 0% 0.1% Last Result
160 0% 0.1%  
161 0.1% 0.1%  
162 0% 0%  

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
120 0.1% 100%  
121 0.1% 99.9%  
122 0.3% 99.8%  
123 0.1% 99.5%  
124 0.3% 99.4%  
125 0.3% 99.1%  
126 0.2% 98.7%  
127 1.0% 98.5%  
128 0.8% 98%  
129 0.7% 97%  
130 12% 96%  
131 2% 84%  
132 1.2% 83%  
133 4% 82%  
134 1.2% 77%  
135 4% 76%  
136 4% 72%  
137 4% 68%  
138 13% 64%  
139 4% 51%  
140 4% 47%  
141 7% 43%  
142 4% 36%  
143 5% 32% Median
144 5% 27%  
145 4% 22%  
146 3% 18%  
147 3% 15%  
148 6% 12%  
149 2% 6%  
150 1.1% 4%  
151 0.4% 3%  
152 1.4% 3%  
153 0.3% 1.2%  
154 0.2% 0.9%  
155 0.2% 0.7%  
156 0.2% 0.5%  
157 0% 0.2%  
158 0.1% 0.2%  
159 0% 0.1% Last Result
160 0% 0.1%  
161 0.1% 0.1%  
162 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna – Kristdemokraterna

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
113 0.1% 100%  
114 0% 99.9%  
115 0% 99.9%  
116 0% 99.9%  
117 0.1% 99.8%  
118 0.1% 99.8%  
119 0.1% 99.6%  
120 0.2% 99.5%  
121 0.2% 99.3%  
122 0.2% 99.1%  
123 0.1% 99.0%  
124 0.2% 98.8%  
125 0.7% 98.6%  
126 1.3% 98%  
127 0.7% 97%  
128 2% 96%  
129 2% 94%  
130 2% 92%  
131 6% 90%  
132 5% 84%  
133 3% 79%  
134 6% 76%  
135 4% 70%  
136 6% 66%  
137 18% 60% Median
138 5% 42%  
139 9% 37%  
140 6% 27%  
141 3% 21% Last Result
142 9% 18%  
143 2% 10%  
144 2% 8%  
145 1.5% 6%  
146 2% 4%  
147 0.6% 3%  
148 0.5% 2%  
149 0.7% 2%  
150 0.3% 0.8%  
151 0.3% 0.5%  
152 0.1% 0.3%  
153 0.1% 0.2%  
154 0.1% 0.2%  
155 0% 0.1%  
156 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
113 0.1% 100%  
114 0% 99.9%  
115 0% 99.9%  
116 0% 99.9%  
117 0.1% 99.8%  
118 0.1% 99.8%  
119 0.2% 99.6%  
120 0.2% 99.5%  
121 0.2% 99.3%  
122 0.2% 99.1%  
123 0.1% 98.9%  
124 0.3% 98.8%  
125 0.8% 98.5% Last Result
126 1.3% 98%  
127 0.7% 96%  
128 2% 96%  
129 2% 94%  
130 2% 92%  
131 6% 90%  
132 5% 84%  
133 3% 79%  
134 6% 76%  
135 4% 69%  
136 6% 65%  
137 18% 59% Median
138 5% 42%  
139 9% 36%  
140 6% 27%  
141 3% 21%  
142 9% 18%  
143 2% 9%  
144 2% 8%  
145 1.5% 6%  
146 2% 4%  
147 0.6% 2%  
148 0.5% 2%  
149 0.7% 1.3%  
150 0.3% 0.7%  
151 0.3% 0.4%  
152 0% 0.1%  
153 0% 0.1%  
154 0% 0.1%  
155 0% 0%  

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
112 0% 100%  
113 0.1% 99.9%  
114 0.1% 99.8%  
115 0.8% 99.7%  
116 0.3% 99.0%  
117 0.7% 98.7%  
118 1.3% 98%  
119 3% 97%  
120 1.4% 94%  
121 14% 92%  
122 2% 78%  
123 6% 76%  
124 5% 70%  
125 5% 66%  
126 8% 61%  
127 4% 53% Median
128 5% 48%  
129 2% 43%  
130 18% 41%  
131 2% 22%  
132 5% 21%  
133 5% 16%  
134 2% 11% Last Result
135 3% 9%  
136 3% 6%  
137 0.3% 4%  
138 0.8% 3%  
139 0.7% 2%  
140 0.3% 2%  
141 1.1% 1.5%  
142 0.1% 0.4%  
143 0.1% 0.3%  
144 0.1% 0.2%  
145 0% 0.1%  
146 0% 0.1%  
147 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
104 0% 100%  
105 0.2% 99.9%  
106 0.2% 99.8%  
107 0.7% 99.6%  
108 0.6% 98.9%  
109 3% 98%  
110 0.7% 95%  
111 3% 95%  
112 4% 92%  
113 6% 87%  
114 2% 81%  
115 6% 79%  
116 7% 73%  
117 6% 66%  
118 2% 60%  
119 21% 58% Median
120 7% 37%  
121 13% 30%  
122 3% 17% Last Result
123 4% 14%  
124 1.3% 10%  
125 2% 9%  
126 3% 7%  
127 0.8% 4%  
128 0.7% 3%  
129 0.8% 2%  
130 0.5% 1.3%  
131 0.2% 0.8%  
132 0.2% 0.6%  
133 0.1% 0.4%  
134 0.1% 0.3%  
135 0% 0.2%  
136 0% 0.1%  
137 0% 0.1%  
138 0% 0.1%  
139 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 99.9%  
105 0.2% 99.9%  
106 0.2% 99.7% Last Result
107 0.7% 99.5%  
108 0.6% 98.8%  
109 3% 98%  
110 0.8% 95%  
111 3% 95%  
112 4% 91%  
113 6% 87%  
114 2% 81%  
115 6% 79%  
116 8% 73%  
117 6% 65%  
118 2% 60%  
119 21% 57% Median
120 7% 37%  
121 13% 29%  
122 3% 17%  
123 4% 14%  
124 1.3% 10%  
125 2% 9%  
126 3% 7%  
127 0.8% 3%  
128 0.7% 3%  
129 0.8% 2%  
130 0.5% 1.1%  
131 0.2% 0.6%  
132 0.2% 0.4%  
133 0.1% 0.2%  
134 0.1% 0.2%  
135 0% 0.1%  
136 0% 0%  

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Miljöpartiet de gröna

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
90 0% 100%  
91 0.1% 99.9%  
92 0% 99.8%  
93 0.1% 99.8%  
94 0.6% 99.7%  
95 0.1% 99.1%  
96 0.5% 99.0%  
97 2% 98%  
98 0.5% 97%  
99 0.3% 96%  
100 8% 96%  
101 1.0% 88%  
102 2% 87%  
103 6% 85%  
104 1.2% 79%  
105 3% 78%  
106 4% 75%  
107 2% 71%  
108 5% 70%  
109 4% 64%  
110 5% 61%  
111 12% 56%  
112 7% 44%  
113 3% 38%  
114 5% 35% Median
115 6% 30%  
116 5% 25%  
117 4% 19%  
118 4% 15%  
119 4% 11%  
120 2% 7%  
121 1.1% 5%  
122 1.3% 3%  
123 1.3% 2%  
124 0.2% 0.9%  
125 0.2% 0.7%  
126 0.2% 0.5%  
127 0.1% 0.3%  
128 0.1% 0.2%  
129 0% 0.1%  
130 0% 0%  
131 0% 0%  
132 0% 0%  
133 0% 0%  
134 0% 0%  
135 0% 0%  
136 0% 0%  
137 0% 0%  
138 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations