Opinion Poll by Inizio for Aftonbladet, 1–7 May 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti 31.0% 26.6% 25.4–27.8% 25.1–28.2% 24.8–28.5% 24.2–29.1%
Moderata samlingspartiet 23.3% 22.4% 21.3–23.6% 21.0–23.9% 20.7–24.2% 20.2–24.8%
Sverigedemokraterna 12.9% 16.9% 15.9–18.0% 15.7–18.3% 15.4–18.5% 15.0–19.0%
Centerpartiet 6.1% 9.0% 8.3–9.8% 8.1–10.1% 7.9–10.3% 7.6–10.7%
Vänsterpartiet 5.7% 7.4% 6.7–8.2% 6.6–8.4% 6.4–8.6% 6.1–8.9%
Kristdemokraterna 4.6% 4.8% 4.3–5.4% 4.1–5.6% 4.0–5.8% 3.7–6.1%
Liberalerna 5.4% 4.2% 3.7–4.8% 3.6–5.0% 3.5–5.1% 3.2–5.4%
Miljöpartiet de gröna 6.9% 3.8% 3.3–4.4% 3.2–4.6% 3.1–4.7% 2.9–5.0%
Feministiskt initiativ 3.1% 2.5% 2.1–3.0% 2.0–3.1% 1.9–3.2% 1.8–3.5%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti 113 102 96–107 94–108 92–110 91–114
Moderata samlingspartiet 84 85 80–91 79–93 77–95 74–96
Sverigedemokraterna 49 64 61–70 59–71 58–71 56–74
Centerpartiet 22 35 31–37 30–38 29–39 28–41
Vänsterpartiet 21 29 26–31 25–31 24–32 23–35
Kristdemokraterna 16 18 16–21 16–22 15–22 0–23
Liberalerna 19 16 0–18 0–19 0–19 0–20
Miljöpartiet de gröna 25 0 0–16 0–17 0–18 0–19
Feministiskt initiativ 0 0 0 0 0 0

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
87 0% 100%  
88 0.1% 99.9%  
89 0.1% 99.9%  
90 0.1% 99.8%  
91 1.2% 99.7%  
92 2% 98%  
93 1.5% 97%  
94 2% 95%  
95 2% 93%  
96 3% 91%  
97 5% 88%  
98 7% 83%  
99 6% 76%  
100 9% 70%  
101 6% 61%  
102 14% 55% Median
103 6% 42%  
104 3% 35%  
105 11% 32%  
106 9% 21%  
107 5% 12%  
108 3% 7%  
109 2% 5%  
110 0.7% 3%  
111 0.5% 2%  
112 0.3% 1.4%  
113 0.6% 1.1% Last Result
114 0.3% 0.5%  
115 0.1% 0.2%  
116 0% 0.2%  
117 0.1% 0.1%  
118 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Moderata samlingspartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
73 0.3% 100%  
74 0.2% 99.6%  
75 0.2% 99.4%  
76 0.6% 99.2%  
77 1.3% 98.6%  
78 2% 97%  
79 1.5% 95%  
80 5% 94%  
81 3% 89%  
82 4% 86%  
83 9% 82%  
84 13% 73% Last Result
85 15% 59% Median
86 8% 44%  
87 7% 36%  
88 7% 29%  
89 6% 22%  
90 3% 16%  
91 5% 13%  
92 3% 8%  
93 1.4% 6%  
94 1.0% 4%  
95 2% 3%  
96 0.3% 0.7%  
97 0.2% 0.5%  
98 0.1% 0.2%  
99 0.1% 0.1%  
100 0% 0.1%  
101 0% 0%  

Sverigedemokraterna

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sverigedemokraterna page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0% 100% Last Result
50 0% 100%  
51 0% 100%  
52 0% 100%  
53 0% 100%  
54 0.1% 100%  
55 0.2% 99.9%  
56 0.7% 99.7%  
57 1.4% 99.0%  
58 1.1% 98%  
59 2% 96%  
60 4% 95%  
61 11% 91%  
62 19% 79%  
63 4% 60%  
64 14% 56% Median
65 10% 42%  
66 6% 32%  
67 7% 26%  
68 3% 18%  
69 4% 15%  
70 5% 11%  
71 4% 6%  
72 0.9% 2%  
73 0.7% 1.5%  
74 0.3% 0.8%  
75 0.2% 0.5%  
76 0.1% 0.3%  
77 0% 0.2%  
78 0.2% 0.2%  
79 0% 0%  

Centerpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Centerpartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0% 100% Last Result
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0.2% 100%  
28 0.9% 99.8%  
29 3% 98.9%  
30 2% 96%  
31 4% 94%  
32 8% 90%  
33 9% 82%  
34 22% 72%  
35 20% 51% Median
36 9% 30%  
37 14% 21%  
38 4% 8%  
39 2% 4%  
40 1.3% 2%  
41 0.7% 1.0%  
42 0.2% 0.3%  
43 0.1% 0.1%  
44 0% 0%  

Vänsterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vänsterpartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0% 100% Last Result
22 0.4% 100%  
23 0.8% 99.6%  
24 3% 98.8%  
25 4% 96%  
26 10% 92%  
27 17% 82%  
28 15% 65%  
29 18% 51% Median
30 16% 32%  
31 12% 16%  
32 2% 5%  
33 1.2% 2%  
34 0.5% 1.2%  
35 0.5% 0.7%  
36 0.1% 0.1%  
37 0% 0%  

Kristdemokraterna

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristdemokraterna page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 2% 100%  
1 0% 98%  
2 0% 98%  
3 0% 98%  
4 0% 98%  
5 0% 98%  
6 0% 98%  
7 0% 98%  
8 0% 98%  
9 0% 98%  
10 0% 98%  
11 0% 98%  
12 0% 98%  
13 0% 98%  
14 0% 98%  
15 1.1% 98%  
16 9% 97% Last Result
17 21% 87%  
18 27% 67% Median
19 17% 39%  
20 6% 22%  
21 11% 16%  
22 3% 5%  
23 1.5% 2%  
24 0.3% 0.4%  
25 0.1% 0.1%  
26 0% 0%  

Liberalerna

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberalerna page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 27% 100%  
1 0% 73%  
2 0% 73%  
3 0% 73%  
4 0% 73%  
5 0% 73%  
6 0% 73%  
7 0% 73%  
8 0% 73%  
9 0% 73%  
10 0% 73%  
11 0% 73%  
12 0% 73%  
13 0% 73%  
14 0% 73%  
15 7% 73%  
16 22% 65% Median
17 21% 43%  
18 17% 22%  
19 4% 6% Last Result
20 2% 2%  
21 0.3% 0.4%  
22 0.1% 0.1%  
23 0% 0%  

Miljöpartiet de gröna

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljöpartiet de gröna page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 74% 100% Median
1 0% 26%  
2 0% 26%  
3 0% 26%  
4 0% 26%  
5 0% 26%  
6 0% 26%  
7 0% 26%  
8 0% 26%  
9 0% 26%  
10 0% 26%  
11 0% 26%  
12 0% 26%  
13 0% 26%  
14 0% 26%  
15 11% 26%  
16 9% 15%  
17 4% 6%  
18 2% 3%  
19 0.9% 1.0%  
20 0.1% 0.1%  
21 0% 0%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0% Last Result

Feministiskt initiativ

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Feministiskt initiativ page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna – Liberalerna 141 152 0% 140–159 138–160 133–161 130–164
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna 122 138 0% 131–146 129–148 127–149 121–151
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna – Feministiskt initiativ 159 133 0% 128–143 126–146 123–149 121–154
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna 159 133 0% 128–143 126–146 123–149 121–154
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna 125 134 0% 123–141 119–142 117–143 114–146
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet 134 131 0% 123–137 122–138 119–140 117–143
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet 106 119 0% 114–127 112–129 110–130 108–134
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Miljöpartiet de gröna 138 105 0% 99–115 97–118 96–120 93–124

Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna – Liberalerna

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
123 0% 100%  
124 0% 99.9%  
125 0% 99.9%  
126 0% 99.9%  
127 0.1% 99.9%  
128 0.1% 99.7%  
129 0.1% 99.6%  
130 0.2% 99.6%  
131 0.2% 99.4%  
132 0.3% 99.2%  
133 1.5% 98.8%  
134 0.1% 97%  
135 0.6% 97%  
136 0.6% 97%  
137 0.5% 96%  
138 3% 95%  
139 2% 93%  
140 1.1% 91%  
141 2% 90% Last Result
142 1.1% 88%  
143 2% 87%  
144 5% 85%  
145 3% 80%  
146 4% 78%  
147 5% 73%  
148 4% 69%  
149 3% 64%  
150 7% 62%  
151 2% 54%  
152 14% 52%  
153 2% 38%  
154 4% 36% Median
155 3% 32%  
156 11% 29%  
157 3% 18%  
158 0.8% 15%  
159 8% 14%  
160 2% 6%  
161 1.4% 4%  
162 1.3% 2%  
163 0.6% 1.1%  
164 0.2% 0.5%  
165 0.2% 0.3%  
166 0% 0.1%  
167 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
117 0% 100%  
118 0.1% 99.9%  
119 0% 99.8%  
120 0.1% 99.8%  
121 0.2% 99.7%  
122 0.1% 99.5% Last Result
123 0.2% 99.3%  
124 0.2% 99.1%  
125 0.5% 98.9%  
126 0.6% 98%  
127 1.0% 98%  
128 0.8% 97%  
129 1.4% 96%  
130 3% 95%  
131 2% 91%  
132 3% 89%  
133 7% 87%  
134 2% 79%  
135 12% 77%  
136 8% 66%  
137 4% 58%  
138 12% 54% Median
139 4% 42%  
140 6% 38%  
141 4% 32%  
142 2% 28%  
143 7% 26%  
144 5% 18%  
145 2% 13%  
146 1.0% 11%  
147 4% 10%  
148 3% 5%  
149 0.7% 3%  
150 1.1% 2%  
151 0.3% 0.8%  
152 0.1% 0.4%  
153 0.1% 0.3%  
154 0.1% 0.2%  
155 0% 0.1%  
156 0% 0%  

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna – Feministiskt initiativ

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
119 0.1% 100%  
120 0.1% 99.9%  
121 0.8% 99.8%  
122 0.5% 99.0%  
123 1.1% 98%  
124 0.9% 97%  
125 1.3% 96%  
126 2% 95%  
127 3% 93%  
128 6% 90%  
129 7% 84%  
130 4% 78%  
131 10% 73% Median
132 7% 64%  
133 9% 57%  
134 5% 48%  
135 7% 43%  
136 3% 36%  
137 8% 32%  
138 2% 25%  
139 3% 23%  
140 3% 20%  
141 5% 17%  
142 1.0% 11%  
143 2% 11%  
144 1.1% 9%  
145 2% 8%  
146 0.9% 6%  
147 0.6% 5%  
148 2% 4%  
149 0.3% 3%  
150 1.2% 2%  
151 0.3% 1.3%  
152 0.3% 1.0%  
153 0.1% 0.7%  
154 0.4% 0.6%  
155 0.1% 0.2%  
156 0% 0.1%  
157 0% 0.1%  
158 0% 0.1%  
159 0% 0% Last Result

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
119 0.1% 100%  
120 0.1% 99.9%  
121 0.8% 99.8%  
122 0.5% 99.0%  
123 1.1% 98%  
124 0.9% 97%  
125 1.3% 96%  
126 2% 95%  
127 3% 93%  
128 6% 90%  
129 7% 84%  
130 4% 78%  
131 10% 73% Median
132 7% 64%  
133 9% 57%  
134 5% 48%  
135 7% 43%  
136 3% 36%  
137 8% 32%  
138 2% 25%  
139 3% 23%  
140 3% 20%  
141 5% 17%  
142 1.0% 11%  
143 2% 11%  
144 1.1% 9%  
145 2% 8%  
146 0.9% 6%  
147 0.6% 5%  
148 2% 4%  
149 0.3% 3%  
150 1.2% 2%  
151 0.3% 1.3%  
152 0.3% 1.0%  
153 0.1% 0.7%  
154 0.4% 0.6%  
155 0.1% 0.2%  
156 0% 0.1%  
157 0% 0.1%  
158 0% 0.1%  
159 0% 0% Last Result

Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
111 0% 100%  
112 0% 99.9%  
113 0.1% 99.9%  
114 0.9% 99.8%  
115 0.2% 98.9%  
116 0.5% 98.7%  
117 1.2% 98%  
118 0.6% 97%  
119 2% 96%  
120 0.8% 94%  
121 2% 93%  
122 0.9% 91%  
123 4% 90%  
124 1.2% 86%  
125 2% 85% Last Result
126 2% 83%  
127 3% 81%  
128 5% 78%  
129 5% 73%  
130 4% 68%  
131 4% 63%  
132 3% 59%  
133 3% 56%  
134 8% 53%  
135 12% 45%  
136 4% 33% Median
137 4% 30%  
138 9% 25%  
139 2% 17%  
140 2% 14%  
141 6% 12%  
142 3% 6%  
143 1.4% 3%  
144 0.3% 2%  
145 1.2% 2%  
146 0.1% 0.6%  
147 0.2% 0.4%  
148 0.1% 0.2%  
149 0.1% 0.1%  
150 0% 0.1%  
151 0% 0%  

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
113 0% 100%  
114 0% 99.9%  
115 0.2% 99.9%  
116 0.1% 99.7%  
117 0.7% 99.7%  
118 1.1% 99.0%  
119 0.8% 98%  
120 0.8% 97%  
121 1.2% 96%  
122 4% 95%  
123 3% 91%  
124 3% 88%  
125 3% 85%  
126 6% 82%  
127 4% 76%  
128 7% 72%  
129 8% 65%  
130 6% 57%  
131 10% 51% Median
132 8% 41%  
133 9% 33%  
134 4% 24% Last Result
135 7% 20%  
136 3% 13%  
137 5% 10%  
138 1.0% 6%  
139 2% 5%  
140 2% 3%  
141 0.4% 1.4%  
142 0.3% 1.1%  
143 0.3% 0.7%  
144 0.1% 0.5%  
145 0.1% 0.4%  
146 0.1% 0.3%  
147 0.1% 0.2%  
148 0% 0.1%  
149 0% 0.1%  
150 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
105 0.2% 100%  
106 0.1% 99.8% Last Result
107 0.1% 99.7%  
108 0.4% 99.6%  
109 0.7% 99.1%  
110 1.0% 98%  
111 2% 97%  
112 1.0% 96%  
113 3% 95%  
114 6% 92%  
115 4% 86%  
116 4% 82%  
117 5% 78%  
118 15% 74%  
119 10% 59%  
120 11% 49% Median
121 5% 39%  
122 3% 34%  
123 6% 31%  
124 4% 25%  
125 6% 21%  
126 2% 15%  
127 3% 12%  
128 4% 10%  
129 3% 5%  
130 1.5% 3%  
131 0.6% 1.4%  
132 0.1% 0.8%  
133 0.1% 0.6%  
134 0.2% 0.6%  
135 0.1% 0.4%  
136 0.1% 0.2%  
137 0% 0.2%  
138 0.1% 0.2%  
139 0% 0%  

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Miljöpartiet de gröna

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
92 0.2% 100%  
93 0.6% 99.8%  
94 0.6% 99.2%  
95 0.7% 98.7%  
96 1.1% 98%  
97 2% 97%  
98 4% 95%  
99 4% 91%  
100 5% 87%  
101 5% 82%  
102 12% 76% Median
103 5% 64%  
104 3% 59%  
105 11% 57%  
106 9% 46%  
107 6% 37%  
108 4% 30%  
109 3% 27%  
110 2% 24%  
111 3% 23%  
112 2% 20%  
113 4% 18%  
114 2% 14%  
115 4% 12%  
116 2% 8%  
117 0.6% 6%  
118 1.1% 6%  
119 2% 5%  
120 0.6% 3%  
121 0.4% 2%  
122 0.7% 2%  
123 0.4% 1.1%  
124 0.1% 0.6%  
125 0.1% 0.5%  
126 0% 0.4%  
127 0.2% 0.3%  
128 0.1% 0.1%  
129 0% 0.1%  
130 0% 0%  
131 0% 0%  
132 0% 0%  
133 0% 0%  
134 0% 0%  
135 0% 0%  
136 0% 0%  
137 0% 0%  
138 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations