Opinion Poll by Sentio for Nyheter Idag, 4–7 May 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti 31.0% 25.3% 23.6–27.2% 23.2–27.7% 22.8–28.1% 22.0–29.0%
Sverigedemokraterna 12.9% 23.1% 21.4–24.8% 21.0–25.3% 20.6–25.8% 19.8–26.6%
Moderata samlingspartiet 23.3% 20.4% 18.8–22.1% 18.4–22.6% 18.0–23.0% 17.3–23.8%
Vänsterpartiet 5.7% 9.2% 8.1–10.5% 7.8–10.8% 7.6–11.2% 7.1–11.8%
Centerpartiet 6.1% 7.6% 6.6–8.8% 6.4–9.1% 6.1–9.4% 5.7–10.0%
Miljöpartiet de gröna 6.9% 4.4% 3.6–5.3% 3.4–5.6% 3.3–5.8% 2.9–6.3%
Liberalerna 5.4% 3.7% 3.0–4.5% 2.8–4.8% 2.7–5.0% 2.4–5.5%
Feministiskt initiativ 3.1% 2.2% 1.7–2.9% 1.6–3.1% 1.4–3.3% 1.2–3.7%
Kristdemokraterna 4.6% 2.1% 1.6–2.8% 1.5–3.0% 1.4–3.2% 1.2–3.5%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti 113 97 90–104 89–106 87–110 84–115
Sverigedemokraterna 49 89 83–96 80–98 79–100 75–104
Moderata samlingspartiet 84 79 72–85 70–89 68–89 65–94
Vänsterpartiet 21 36 32–39 31–40 30–42 27–46
Centerpartiet 22 29 26–34 24–35 24–36 22–38
Miljöpartiet de gröna 25 17 0–20 0–21 0–22 0–24
Liberalerna 19 0 0–17 0–18 0–18 0–20
Feministiskt initiativ 0 0 0 0 0 0
Kristdemokraterna 16 0 0 0 0 0

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
80 0.1% 100%  
81 0.1% 99.9%  
82 0.1% 99.8%  
83 0.2% 99.8%  
84 0.3% 99.6%  
85 0.9% 99.2%  
86 0.5% 98%  
87 0.9% 98%  
88 2% 97%  
89 2% 95%  
90 5% 94%  
91 4% 89%  
92 3% 85%  
93 4% 82%  
94 4% 78%  
95 12% 74%  
96 7% 62%  
97 9% 55% Median
98 14% 46%  
99 3% 32%  
100 4% 29%  
101 8% 25%  
102 3% 18%  
103 2% 14%  
104 5% 12%  
105 1.2% 7%  
106 1.2% 6%  
107 0.9% 5%  
108 0.6% 4%  
109 0.3% 3%  
110 0.5% 3%  
111 0.4% 2%  
112 0.3% 2%  
113 0.9% 2% Last Result
114 0.3% 0.9%  
115 0.1% 0.6%  
116 0.2% 0.5%  
117 0.2% 0.3%  
118 0.1% 0.1%  
119 0% 0%  

Sverigedemokraterna

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sverigedemokraterna page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0% 100% Last Result
50 0% 100%  
51 0% 100%  
52 0% 100%  
53 0% 100%  
54 0% 100%  
55 0% 100%  
56 0% 100%  
57 0% 100%  
58 0% 100%  
59 0% 100%  
60 0% 100%  
61 0% 100%  
62 0% 100%  
63 0% 100%  
64 0% 100%  
65 0% 100%  
66 0% 100%  
67 0% 100%  
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0.1% 99.9%  
74 0.2% 99.9%  
75 0.1% 99.6%  
76 0.3% 99.5%  
77 0.4% 99.2%  
78 0.7% 98.8%  
79 2% 98%  
80 2% 97%  
81 1.4% 94%  
82 1.4% 93%  
83 3% 91%  
84 3% 88%  
85 2% 86%  
86 17% 84%  
87 10% 66%  
88 2% 57%  
89 8% 54% Median
90 6% 46%  
91 3% 41%  
92 9% 38%  
93 3% 28%  
94 1.0% 25%  
95 12% 24%  
96 4% 12%  
97 1.3% 9%  
98 3% 7%  
99 1.1% 4%  
100 0.9% 3%  
101 0.8% 2%  
102 0.3% 1.2%  
103 0.1% 0.9%  
104 0.3% 0.7%  
105 0.3% 0.5%  
106 0% 0.2%  
107 0% 0.1%  
108 0% 0.1%  
109 0% 0.1%  
110 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Moderata samlingspartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0% 100%  
62 0% 99.9%  
63 0.1% 99.9%  
64 0.1% 99.9%  
65 0.6% 99.8%  
66 0.3% 99.2%  
67 0.3% 98.9%  
68 2% 98.6%  
69 1.0% 97%  
70 0.8% 96%  
71 3% 95%  
72 9% 92%  
73 3% 83%  
74 4% 80%  
75 9% 76%  
76 4% 67%  
77 2% 63%  
78 11% 61%  
79 14% 50% Median
80 4% 36%  
81 7% 32%  
82 3% 25%  
83 2% 21%  
84 3% 19% Last Result
85 7% 16%  
86 2% 9%  
87 0.9% 8%  
88 1.2% 7%  
89 3% 5%  
90 0.9% 2%  
91 0.2% 1.0%  
92 0.2% 0.8%  
93 0.1% 0.6%  
94 0.1% 0.5%  
95 0.3% 0.4%  
96 0.1% 0.1%  
97 0% 0.1%  
98 0% 0%  

Vänsterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vänsterpartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0% 100% Last Result
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0.1% 100%  
26 0.1% 99.9%  
27 0.5% 99.8%  
28 0.5% 99.4%  
29 1.0% 98.8%  
30 1.3% 98%  
31 4% 97%  
32 6% 92%  
33 11% 86%  
34 7% 76%  
35 14% 68%  
36 17% 54% Median
37 17% 38%  
38 7% 21%  
39 7% 14%  
40 1.4% 6%  
41 2% 5%  
42 2% 3%  
43 0.3% 2%  
44 0.4% 1.3%  
45 0.4% 0.9%  
46 0.2% 0.5%  
47 0.1% 0.4%  
48 0.1% 0.2%  
49 0.1% 0.1%  
50 0% 0%  

Centerpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Centerpartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.1% 100%  
21 0.3% 99.9%  
22 0.3% 99.6% Last Result
23 1.4% 99.2%  
24 4% 98%  
25 2% 94%  
26 8% 91%  
27 7% 83%  
28 13% 75%  
29 13% 62% Median
30 9% 49%  
31 7% 41%  
32 19% 34%  
33 3% 15%  
34 6% 12%  
35 0.9% 6%  
36 3% 5%  
37 0.3% 2%  
38 1.0% 1.5%  
39 0.1% 0.5%  
40 0.2% 0.4%  
41 0% 0.1%  
42 0.1% 0.1%  
43 0% 0%  

Miljöpartiet de gröna

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljöpartiet de gröna page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 20% 100%  
1 0% 80%  
2 0% 80%  
3 0% 80%  
4 0% 80%  
5 0% 80%  
6 0% 80%  
7 0% 80%  
8 0% 80%  
9 0% 80%  
10 0% 80%  
11 0% 80%  
12 0% 80%  
13 0% 80%  
14 0% 80%  
15 1.0% 80%  
16 22% 79%  
17 17% 57% Median
18 16% 40%  
19 6% 24%  
20 10% 17%  
21 4% 8%  
22 2% 4%  
23 1.1% 2%  
24 0.4% 0.8%  
25 0.3% 0.4% Last Result
26 0.1% 0.1%  
27 0% 0%  

Liberalerna

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberalerna page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 74% 100% Median
1 0% 26%  
2 0% 26%  
3 0% 26%  
4 0% 26%  
5 0% 26%  
6 0% 26%  
7 0% 26%  
8 0% 26%  
9 0% 26%  
10 0% 26%  
11 0% 26%  
12 0% 26%  
13 0% 26%  
14 0% 26%  
15 7% 26%  
16 9% 19%  
17 4% 10%  
18 4% 6%  
19 1.0% 2% Last Result
20 0.5% 0.9%  
21 0.3% 0.4%  
22 0.1% 0.1%  
23 0% 0%  

Feministiskt initiativ

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Feministiskt initiativ page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.9% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 0.1%  
2 0% 0.1%  
3 0% 0.1%  
4 0% 0.1%  
5 0% 0.1%  
6 0% 0.1%  
7 0% 0.1%  
8 0% 0.1%  
9 0% 0.1%  
10 0% 0.1%  
11 0% 0.1%  
12 0% 0.1%  
13 0% 0.1%  
14 0% 0.1%  
15 0% 0.1%  
16 0% 0%  

Kristdemokraterna

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristdemokraterna page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Median
1 0% 0%  
2 0% 0%  
3 0% 0%  
4 0% 0%  
5 0% 0%  
6 0% 0%  
7 0% 0%  
8 0% 0%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0%  
13 0% 0%  
14 0% 0%  
15 0% 0%  
16 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna – Feministiskt initiativ 159 148 0% 137–156 134–158 130–159 126–166
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna 159 148 0% 137–156 134–158 130–159 126–165
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet 134 133 0% 124–141 122–143 121–146 116–152
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna – Kristdemokraterna 141 111 0% 103–122 101–126 100–128 97–133
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna 125 111 0% 103–122 101–126 100–128 97–133
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Miljöpartiet de gröna 138 112 0% 101–120 98–121 95–124 90–128
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna 122 108 0% 101–117 98–119 97–120 93–126
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet 106 108 0% 101–117 98–119 97–120 93–126

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna – Feministiskt initiativ

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
120 0.1% 100%  
121 0% 99.9%  
122 0.1% 99.9%  
123 0% 99.8%  
124 0.1% 99.8%  
125 0% 99.6%  
126 0.5% 99.6%  
127 0.3% 99.1%  
128 0.4% 98.8%  
129 0.4% 98%  
130 0.6% 98%  
131 0.6% 97%  
132 0.5% 97%  
133 0.4% 96%  
134 3% 96%  
135 1.4% 93%  
136 0.9% 91%  
137 2% 90%  
138 2% 88%  
139 2% 86%  
140 5% 85%  
141 2% 79%  
142 3% 77%  
143 2% 74%  
144 6% 72%  
145 2% 65%  
146 9% 63%  
147 2% 54%  
148 6% 52%  
149 5% 47%  
150 2% 41% Median
151 7% 40%  
152 11% 33%  
153 4% 22%  
154 2% 18%  
155 3% 16%  
156 3% 13%  
157 4% 10%  
158 1.1% 5%  
159 2% 4% Last Result
160 0.9% 2%  
161 0.3% 2%  
162 0.3% 1.3%  
163 0.1% 1.0%  
164 0.2% 0.9%  
165 0.2% 0.7%  
166 0.1% 0.5%  
167 0.3% 0.4%  
168 0.1% 0.1%  
169 0% 0.1%  
170 0% 0%  

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
120 0.1% 100%  
121 0% 99.9%  
122 0.1% 99.9%  
123 0% 99.8%  
124 0.1% 99.8%  
125 0% 99.6%  
126 0.5% 99.6%  
127 0.3% 99.1%  
128 0.4% 98.8%  
129 0.4% 98%  
130 0.6% 98%  
131 0.6% 97%  
132 0.5% 97%  
133 0.4% 96%  
134 3% 96%  
135 1.4% 93%  
136 0.9% 91%  
137 2% 90%  
138 2% 88%  
139 2% 86%  
140 5% 85%  
141 2% 79%  
142 3% 77%  
143 2% 74%  
144 6% 72%  
145 2% 65%  
146 9% 63%  
147 2% 54%  
148 6% 52%  
149 5% 47%  
150 2% 41% Median
151 7% 40%  
152 11% 33%  
153 4% 22%  
154 2% 18%  
155 3% 16%  
156 3% 13%  
157 4% 10%  
158 1.1% 5%  
159 2% 4% Last Result
160 0.9% 2%  
161 0.3% 1.5%  
162 0.3% 1.2%  
163 0.1% 1.0%  
164 0.2% 0.8%  
165 0.2% 0.7%  
166 0.1% 0.5%  
167 0.3% 0.4%  
168 0.1% 0.1%  
169 0% 0%  

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
112 0.1% 100%  
113 0% 99.9%  
114 0.2% 99.9%  
115 0.1% 99.7%  
116 0.1% 99.6%  
117 0.2% 99.5%  
118 0.4% 99.3%  
119 0.6% 98.9%  
120 0.8% 98%  
121 1.0% 98%  
122 2% 97%  
123 0.9% 94%  
124 5% 93%  
125 2% 88%  
126 2% 86%  
127 2% 84%  
128 6% 82%  
129 4% 76%  
130 8% 72%  
131 3% 64%  
132 9% 61%  
133 7% 53% Median
134 4% 46% Last Result
135 14% 42%  
136 2% 28%  
137 7% 26%  
138 3% 19%  
139 3% 16%  
140 3% 13%  
141 2% 10%  
142 1.2% 8%  
143 2% 7%  
144 1.0% 5%  
145 0.4% 4%  
146 1.1% 4%  
147 0.4% 2%  
148 0.5% 2%  
149 0.4% 2%  
150 0.2% 1.1%  
151 0.3% 0.9%  
152 0.2% 0.6%  
153 0.2% 0.5%  
154 0.1% 0.3%  
155 0% 0.1%  
156 0.1% 0.1%  
157 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna – Kristdemokraterna

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 99.9%  
94 0.1% 99.9%  
95 0.1% 99.8%  
96 0.1% 99.8%  
97 1.1% 99.6%  
98 0.3% 98.6%  
99 0.5% 98%  
100 2% 98%  
101 4% 96%  
102 0.8% 92%  
103 4% 91%  
104 1.0% 87%  
105 5% 87%  
106 6% 81%  
107 2% 75%  
108 4% 73% Median
109 3% 69%  
110 3% 65%  
111 13% 62%  
112 3% 49%  
113 7% 46%  
114 3% 39%  
115 2% 36%  
116 9% 35%  
117 1.2% 26%  
118 3% 25%  
119 5% 22%  
120 3% 17%  
121 1.2% 14%  
122 3% 13%  
123 2% 10%  
124 1.3% 8%  
125 1.2% 7%  
126 1.1% 6%  
127 1.2% 5%  
128 1.2% 3%  
129 0.7% 2%  
130 0.4% 1.5%  
131 0.2% 1.0%  
132 0.3% 0.9%  
133 0.1% 0.6%  
134 0.1% 0.4%  
135 0.1% 0.3%  
136 0.1% 0.2%  
137 0% 0.1%  
138 0% 0.1%  
139 0% 0.1%  
140 0% 0.1%  
141 0% 0% Last Result

Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 99.9%  
94 0.1% 99.9%  
95 0.1% 99.8%  
96 0.1% 99.8%  
97 1.1% 99.6%  
98 0.3% 98.5%  
99 0.5% 98%  
100 2% 98%  
101 4% 96%  
102 0.8% 92%  
103 4% 91%  
104 1.0% 87%  
105 5% 86%  
106 6% 81%  
107 2% 75%  
108 4% 73% Median
109 3% 69%  
110 3% 65%  
111 13% 62%  
112 3% 49%  
113 7% 46%  
114 3% 39%  
115 2% 36%  
116 9% 34%  
117 1.2% 26%  
118 3% 25%  
119 5% 22%  
120 3% 17%  
121 1.2% 14%  
122 3% 13%  
123 2% 10%  
124 1.3% 8%  
125 1.2% 7% Last Result
126 1.1% 6%  
127 1.2% 5%  
128 1.2% 3%  
129 0.7% 2%  
130 0.4% 1.4%  
131 0.2% 1.0%  
132 0.3% 0.9%  
133 0.1% 0.6%  
134 0.1% 0.4%  
135 0.1% 0.3%  
136 0.1% 0.2%  
137 0% 0.1%  
138 0% 0.1%  
139 0% 0.1%  
140 0% 0.1%  
141 0% 0%  

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Miljöpartiet de gröna

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 99.9%  
87 0.1% 99.9%  
88 0.2% 99.8%  
89 0.1% 99.6%  
90 0.1% 99.6%  
91 0.2% 99.5%  
92 0.5% 99.2%  
93 0.3% 98.8%  
94 0.5% 98%  
95 0.5% 98%  
96 0.4% 97%  
97 2% 97%  
98 3% 95%  
99 0.6% 92%  
100 0.9% 92%  
101 1.2% 91%  
102 2% 90%  
103 2% 88%  
104 4% 86%  
105 2% 82%  
106 3% 81%  
107 2% 78%  
108 4% 76%  
109 3% 72%  
110 3% 69%  
111 11% 66%  
112 8% 56%  
113 3% 48%  
114 7% 45% Median
115 12% 38%  
116 3% 27%  
117 7% 24%  
118 3% 17%  
119 3% 14%  
120 3% 10%  
121 3% 8%  
122 1.4% 5%  
123 0.9% 4%  
124 0.6% 3%  
125 0.8% 2%  
126 0.3% 1.2%  
127 0.3% 0.9%  
128 0.3% 0.6%  
129 0.1% 0.4%  
130 0% 0.3%  
131 0% 0.2%  
132 0.1% 0.2%  
133 0% 0%  
134 0% 0%  
135 0% 0%  
136 0% 0%  
137 0% 0%  
138 0% 0% Last Result

Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
89 0.1% 100%  
90 0.1% 99.9%  
91 0.2% 99.8%  
92 0.1% 99.7%  
93 0.6% 99.6%  
94 0.2% 99.0%  
95 0.3% 98.8%  
96 0.8% 98%  
97 2% 98%  
98 0.9% 96%  
99 0.7% 95%  
100 4% 94%  
101 10% 91%  
102 1.5% 81%  
103 6% 79%  
104 3% 73%  
105 6% 70%  
106 7% 64%  
107 4% 57%  
108 5% 53% Median
109 5% 48%  
110 3% 44%  
111 14% 40%  
112 3% 26%  
113 7% 23%  
114 3% 16%  
115 2% 13%  
116 2% 12%  
117 0.7% 10%  
118 2% 9%  
119 4% 8%  
120 0.8% 3%  
121 0.5% 2%  
122 0.4% 2% Last Result
123 0.2% 2%  
124 0.5% 1.5%  
125 0.5% 1.0%  
126 0.2% 0.5%  
127 0.2% 0.3%  
128 0% 0.1%  
129 0% 0.1%  
130 0% 0.1%  
131 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
89 0.1% 100%  
90 0.1% 99.9%  
91 0.2% 99.8%  
92 0.1% 99.7%  
93 0.6% 99.6%  
94 0.2% 99.0%  
95 0.3% 98.8%  
96 0.8% 98%  
97 2% 98%  
98 0.9% 96%  
99 0.7% 95%  
100 4% 94%  
101 10% 91%  
102 1.5% 80%  
103 6% 79%  
104 3% 73%  
105 6% 70%  
106 7% 64% Last Result
107 4% 56%  
108 5% 53% Median
109 5% 48%  
110 3% 44%  
111 14% 40%  
112 3% 26%  
113 7% 23%  
114 3% 16%  
115 2% 13%  
116 2% 12%  
117 0.7% 10%  
118 2% 9%  
119 4% 8%  
120 0.8% 3%  
121 0.5% 2%  
122 0.4% 2%  
123 0.2% 2%  
124 0.5% 1.5%  
125 0.5% 1.0%  
126 0.2% 0.5%  
127 0.2% 0.3%  
128 0% 0.1%  
129 0% 0.1%  
130 0% 0.1%  
131 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations