Opinion Poll by Novus for SVT, 16 April–13 May 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti 31.0% 26.9% 26.1–27.7% 25.9–27.9% 25.7–28.1% 25.3–28.5%
Moderata samlingspartiet 23.3% 20.6% 19.9–21.3% 19.7–21.5% 19.5–21.7% 19.2–22.1%
Sverigedemokraterna 12.9% 19.2% 18.5–19.9% 18.3–20.1% 18.2–20.3% 17.8–20.6%
Centerpartiet 6.1% 9.4% 8.9–9.9% 8.8–10.1% 8.6–10.2% 8.4–10.5%
Vänsterpartiet 5.7% 8.4% 7.9–8.9% 7.8–9.1% 7.7–9.2% 7.5–9.4%
Liberalerna 5.4% 4.4% 4.0–4.8% 3.9–4.9% 3.9–5.0% 3.7–5.2%
Miljöpartiet de gröna 6.9% 4.3% 3.9–4.7% 3.9–4.8% 3.8–4.9% 3.6–5.1%
Kristdemokraterna 4.6% 3.5% 3.2–3.9% 3.1–4.0% 3.0–4.0% 2.9–4.2%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti 113 101 98–105 97–107 96–108 94–111
Moderata samlingspartiet 84 78 75–81 74–82 73–83 71–86
Sverigedemokraterna 49 72 70–75 69–77 68–78 67–80
Centerpartiet 22 36 33–38 33–38 32–39 32–40
Vänsterpartiet 21 32 30–33 30–34 29–35 28–36
Liberalerna 19 16 15–18 0–18 0–19 0–20
Miljöpartiet de gröna 25 16 14–18 0–18 0–18 0–19
Kristdemokraterna 16 0 0 0 0–14 0–15

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
92 0.1% 100%  
93 0.2% 99.9%  
94 0.4% 99.7%  
95 1.1% 99.3%  
96 2% 98%  
97 5% 96%  
98 8% 91%  
99 14% 84%  
100 15% 70%  
101 15% 56% Median
102 15% 41%  
103 7% 26%  
104 4% 19%  
105 6% 15%  
106 3% 9%  
107 3% 6%  
108 1.2% 3%  
109 0.6% 2%  
110 0.7% 2%  
111 0.6% 0.9%  
112 0.1% 0.3%  
113 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
114 0% 0.1%  
115 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Moderata samlingspartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
69 0% 100%  
70 0.2% 99.9%  
71 0.3% 99.7%  
72 0.8% 99.5%  
73 2% 98.7%  
74 7% 97%  
75 8% 90%  
76 15% 82%  
77 16% 67%  
78 16% 50% Median
79 9% 35%  
80 14% 25%  
81 4% 11%  
82 4% 7%  
83 2% 4%  
84 0.6% 2% Last Result
85 0.8% 1.4%  
86 0.3% 0.6%  
87 0.2% 0.3%  
88 0.1% 0.1%  
89 0% 0%  

Sverigedemokraterna

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sverigedemokraterna page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0% 100% Last Result
50 0% 100%  
51 0% 100%  
52 0% 100%  
53 0% 100%  
54 0% 100%  
55 0% 100%  
56 0% 100%  
57 0% 100%  
58 0% 100%  
59 0% 100%  
60 0% 100%  
61 0% 100%  
62 0% 100%  
63 0% 100%  
64 0% 100%  
65 0.1% 100%  
66 0.3% 99.8%  
67 1.0% 99.6%  
68 2% 98.6%  
69 4% 97%  
70 11% 92%  
71 16% 81%  
72 20% 65% Median
73 21% 45%  
74 10% 24%  
75 6% 15%  
76 3% 9%  
77 2% 5%  
78 1.0% 3%  
79 0.9% 2%  
80 0.4% 0.7%  
81 0.2% 0.3%  
82 0.1% 0.1%  
83 0% 0.1%  
84 0% 0%  

Centerpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Centerpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0% 100% Last Result
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0% 100%  
28 0% 100%  
29 0% 100%  
30 0% 100%  
31 0.3% 100%  
32 2% 99.6%  
33 9% 97%  
34 15% 88%  
35 21% 73%  
36 27% 52% Median
37 14% 24%  
38 6% 11%  
39 4% 5%  
40 1.1% 1.3%  
41 0.1% 0.2%  
42 0.1% 0.1%  
43 0% 0%  

Vänsterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vänsterpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0% 100% Last Result
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0.1% 100%  
28 0.5% 99.9%  
29 3% 99.4%  
30 19% 96%  
31 25% 77%  
32 25% 53% Median
33 20% 27%  
34 5% 8%  
35 2% 3%  
36 0.5% 0.7%  
37 0.1% 0.2%  
38 0% 0%  

Liberalerna

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberalerna page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 8% 100%  
1 0% 92%  
2 0% 92%  
3 0% 92%  
4 0% 92%  
5 0% 92%  
6 0% 92%  
7 0% 92%  
8 0% 92%  
9 0% 92%  
10 0% 92%  
11 0% 92%  
12 0% 92%  
13 0% 92%  
14 0.1% 92%  
15 11% 92%  
16 32% 82% Median
17 32% 49%  
18 14% 18%  
19 4% 4% Last Result
20 0.6% 0.6%  
21 0% 0%  

Miljöpartiet de gröna

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljöpartiet de gröna page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 10% 100%  
1 0% 90%  
2 0% 90%  
3 0% 90%  
4 0% 90%  
5 0% 90%  
6 0% 90%  
7 0% 90%  
8 0% 90%  
9 0% 90%  
10 0% 90%  
11 0% 90%  
12 0% 90%  
13 0% 90%  
14 0.1% 90%  
15 16% 90%  
16 36% 74% Median
17 25% 37%  
18 10% 12%  
19 2% 2%  
20 0.1% 0.1%  
21 0% 0%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0% Last Result

Kristdemokraterna

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristdemokraterna page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 97% 100% Median
1 0% 3%  
2 0% 3%  
3 0% 3%  
4 0% 3%  
5 0% 3%  
6 0% 3%  
7 0% 3%  
8 0% 3%  
9 0% 3%  
10 0% 3%  
11 0% 3%  
12 0% 3%  
13 0% 3%  
14 0.2% 3%  
15 2% 2%  
16 0.4% 0.5% Last Result
17 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna 159 148 0% 142–152 138–155 136–157 133–159
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet 134 132 0% 129–138 128–139 127–141 124–145
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna – Kristdemokraterna 141 129 0% 124–134 119–137 118–138 115–143
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna 125 129 0% 124–133 119–135 118–138 114–139
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Miljöpartiet de gröna 138 117 0% 111–121 105–122 103–124 101–126
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna 122 113 0% 110–118 109–121 108–123 107–127
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet 106 113 0% 109–118 108–119 107–121 105–123

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
130 0% 100%  
131 0.1% 99.9%  
132 0.2% 99.8%  
133 0.3% 99.7%  
134 0.5% 99.3%  
135 1.1% 98.9%  
136 1.0% 98%  
137 0.6% 97%  
138 2% 96%  
139 2% 95%  
140 0.9% 92%  
141 1.0% 91%  
142 0.9% 90%  
143 1.3% 90%  
144 3% 88%  
145 6% 85%  
146 7% 79%  
147 16% 72%  
148 14% 56%  
149 15% 42% Median
150 9% 27%  
151 6% 18%  
152 4% 13%  
153 2% 8%  
154 0.9% 7%  
155 2% 6%  
156 0.9% 4%  
157 1.1% 3%  
158 1.1% 2%  
159 0.4% 0.7% Last Result
160 0.2% 0.2%  
161 0.1% 0.1%  
162 0% 0%  

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
122 0.1% 100%  
123 0.2% 99.9%  
124 0.3% 99.7%  
125 0.5% 99.4%  
126 0.5% 98.9%  
127 1.3% 98%  
128 3% 97%  
129 9% 94%  
130 11% 86%  
131 11% 75%  
132 17% 64%  
133 15% 47% Median
134 8% 32% Last Result
135 6% 24%  
136 4% 17%  
137 2% 13%  
138 3% 12%  
139 4% 9%  
140 2% 5%  
141 1.1% 3%  
142 0.6% 2%  
143 0.3% 1.4%  
144 0.5% 1.1%  
145 0.1% 0.6%  
146 0.3% 0.4%  
147 0% 0.1%  
148 0% 0.1%  
149 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna – Kristdemokraterna

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
113 0.3% 100%  
114 0.1% 99.7%  
115 0.6% 99.6%  
116 0.5% 98.9%  
117 0.2% 98%  
118 2% 98%  
119 2% 96%  
120 0.2% 95%  
121 0.8% 94%  
122 0.2% 94%  
123 2% 93%  
124 2% 92%  
125 3% 90%  
126 6% 87%  
127 7% 81%  
128 18% 75%  
129 17% 57%  
130 6% 40% Median
131 10% 34%  
132 8% 23%  
133 5% 15%  
134 3% 10%  
135 1.0% 8%  
136 1.5% 7%  
137 1.0% 5%  
138 2% 4%  
139 0.7% 2%  
140 0.3% 2%  
141 0.6% 1.3% Last Result
142 0.2% 0.7%  
143 0.3% 0.5%  
144 0.1% 0.3%  
145 0.1% 0.2%  
146 0% 0.1%  
147 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
110 0% 100%  
111 0.1% 99.9%  
112 0% 99.9%  
113 0.3% 99.8%  
114 0.1% 99.5%  
115 0.7% 99.4%  
116 0.5% 98.7%  
117 0.3% 98%  
118 2% 98%  
119 2% 96%  
120 0.3% 94%  
121 1.1% 94%  
122 0.4% 93%  
123 2% 92%  
124 2% 90%  
125 3% 89% Last Result
126 6% 86%  
127 7% 80%  
128 18% 73%  
129 17% 54%  
130 6% 37% Median
131 10% 31%  
132 8% 21%  
133 5% 13%  
134 3% 8%  
135 0.9% 6%  
136 1.2% 5%  
137 0.8% 3%  
138 2% 3%  
139 0.6% 0.9%  
140 0.1% 0.3%  
141 0.1% 0.2%  
142 0.1% 0.1%  
143 0% 0%  

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Miljöpartiet de gröna

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
98 0% 100%  
99 0.1% 99.9%  
100 0.2% 99.9%  
101 0.2% 99.6%  
102 1.0% 99.4%  
103 1.4% 98%  
104 1.0% 97%  
105 2% 96%  
106 0.8% 94%  
107 1.1% 93%  
108 0.8% 92%  
109 0.7% 91%  
110 0.7% 91%  
111 2% 90%  
112 2% 89%  
113 3% 86%  
114 8% 83%  
115 11% 75%  
116 13% 65%  
117 17% 52% Median
118 11% 34%  
119 7% 23%  
120 6% 16%  
121 3% 11%  
122 3% 7%  
123 2% 5%  
124 1.1% 3%  
125 1.1% 2%  
126 0.4% 0.7%  
127 0.2% 0.3%  
128 0.1% 0.1%  
129 0% 0%  
130 0% 0%  
131 0% 0%  
132 0% 0%  
133 0% 0%  
134 0% 0%  
135 0% 0%  
136 0% 0%  
137 0% 0%  
138 0% 0% Last Result

Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
105 0.1% 100%  
106 0.3% 99.8%  
107 2% 99.6%  
108 2% 98%  
109 5% 96%  
110 7% 91%  
111 10% 84%  
112 20% 74%  
113 8% 53%  
114 12% 46% Median
115 12% 34%  
116 3% 21%  
117 4% 18%  
118 5% 14%  
119 3% 9%  
120 1.1% 6%  
121 2% 5%  
122 0.8% 4% Last Result
123 0.8% 3%  
124 0.4% 2%  
125 0.3% 2%  
126 0.6% 1.3%  
127 0.3% 0.7%  
128 0.1% 0.4%  
129 0.1% 0.3%  
130 0% 0.2%  
131 0% 0.2%  
132 0% 0.1%  
133 0% 0.1%  
134 0.1% 0.1%  
135 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
103 0.2% 100%  
104 0.1% 99.8%  
105 0.2% 99.7%  
106 0.6% 99.4% Last Result
107 2% 98.9%  
108 2% 97%  
109 5% 95%  
110 7% 89%  
111 10% 82%  
112 21% 72%  
113 8% 51%  
114 12% 43% Median
115 12% 31%  
116 3% 19%  
117 4% 16%  
118 5% 11%  
119 3% 7%  
120 1.0% 4%  
121 1.4% 3%  
122 0.7% 2%  
123 0.6% 1.1%  
124 0.2% 0.5%  
125 0.1% 0.2%  
126 0.1% 0.2%  
127 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations