Opinion Poll by YouGov for Metro, 11–14 May 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti 31.0% 23.0% 21.7–24.5% 21.3–24.9% 21.0–25.2% 20.4–25.9%
Sverigedemokraterna 12.9% 23.0% 21.7–24.5% 21.3–24.9% 21.0–25.2% 20.4–25.9%
Moderata samlingspartiet 23.3% 18.3% 17.1–19.6% 16.8–20.0% 16.4–20.3% 15.9–21.0%
Centerpartiet 6.1% 10.1% 9.2–11.2% 8.9–11.5% 8.7–11.7% 8.3–12.3%
Vänsterpartiet 5.7% 9.0% 8.1–10.0% 7.9–10.3% 7.7–10.5% 7.3–11.1%
Liberalerna 5.4% 4.2% 3.6–4.9% 3.4–5.2% 3.3–5.3% 3.0–5.7%
Miljöpartiet de gröna 6.9% 3.6% 3.1–4.3% 2.9–4.5% 2.8–4.7% 2.5–5.0%
Kristdemokraterna 4.6% 3.0% 2.5–3.7% 2.4–3.9% 2.3–4.0% 2.1–4.3%
Feministiskt initiativ 3.1% 1.8% 1.4–2.3% 1.3–2.4% 1.2–2.6% 1.1–2.9%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti 113 90 83–97 81–100 80–100 76–104
Sverigedemokraterna 49 89 83–97 81–99 79–100 76–104
Moderata samlingspartiet 84 71 65–77 64–79 63–81 59–83
Centerpartiet 22 39 35–44 34–46 33–48 32–49
Vänsterpartiet 21 35 31–39 30–41 29–42 28–45
Liberalerna 19 16 0–19 0–20 0–20 0–22
Miljöpartiet de gröna 25 0 0–17 0–17 0–18 0–19
Kristdemokraterna 16 0 0 0 0 0–17
Feministiskt initiativ 0 0 0 0 0 0

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
74 0.1% 100%  
75 0.1% 99.9%  
76 0.3% 99.8%  
77 0.3% 99.4%  
78 0.4% 99.1%  
79 0.5% 98.7%  
80 2% 98%  
81 3% 96%  
82 3% 94%  
83 5% 91%  
84 5% 86%  
85 3% 82%  
86 5% 79%  
87 7% 74%  
88 2% 67%  
89 13% 65%  
90 11% 52% Median
91 4% 41%  
92 5% 37%  
93 12% 32%  
94 4% 20%  
95 3% 16%  
96 2% 13%  
97 3% 11%  
98 2% 8%  
99 0.7% 6%  
100 4% 6%  
101 0.9% 2%  
102 0.2% 0.8%  
103 0.1% 0.6%  
104 0.1% 0.5%  
105 0.3% 0.5%  
106 0.1% 0.1%  
107 0% 0.1%  
108 0% 0.1%  
109 0% 0%  
110 0% 0%  
111 0% 0%  
112 0% 0%  
113 0% 0% Last Result

Sverigedemokraterna

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sverigedemokraterna page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0% 100% Last Result
50 0% 100%  
51 0% 100%  
52 0% 100%  
53 0% 100%  
54 0% 100%  
55 0% 100%  
56 0% 100%  
57 0% 100%  
58 0% 100%  
59 0% 100%  
60 0% 100%  
61 0% 100%  
62 0% 100%  
63 0% 100%  
64 0% 100%  
65 0% 100%  
66 0% 100%  
67 0% 100%  
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0.1% 100%  
75 0.2% 99.9%  
76 0.6% 99.7%  
77 0.6% 99.1%  
78 0.6% 98%  
79 2% 98%  
80 0.7% 96%  
81 2% 95%  
82 2% 93%  
83 5% 91%  
84 4% 86%  
85 3% 82%  
86 13% 79%  
87 6% 67%  
88 6% 61%  
89 8% 55% Median
90 3% 47%  
91 11% 44%  
92 7% 33%  
93 3% 26%  
94 7% 23%  
95 3% 16%  
96 2% 13%  
97 3% 11%  
98 2% 8%  
99 3% 7%  
100 2% 4%  
101 0.4% 2%  
102 0.5% 1.4%  
103 0.3% 0.9%  
104 0.4% 0.6%  
105 0.1% 0.2%  
106 0.1% 0.2%  
107 0% 0.1%  
108 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Moderata samlingspartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0.2% 100%  
59 0.4% 99.8%  
60 0.1% 99.4%  
61 0.6% 99.2%  
62 1.1% 98.6%  
63 2% 98%  
64 4% 96%  
65 2% 92%  
66 4% 90%  
67 6% 86%  
68 8% 81%  
69 5% 72%  
70 6% 68%  
71 15% 61% Median
72 5% 46%  
73 7% 41%  
74 4% 34%  
75 10% 30%  
76 10% 21%  
77 2% 11%  
78 1.4% 9%  
79 4% 8%  
80 1.0% 4%  
81 2% 3%  
82 0.4% 1.0%  
83 0.1% 0.6%  
84 0.2% 0.5% Last Result
85 0.2% 0.3%  
86 0.1% 0.1%  
87 0% 0.1%  
88 0% 0%  

Centerpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Centerpartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0% 100% Last Result
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0% 100%  
28 0% 100%  
29 0% 100%  
30 0.1% 99.9%  
31 0.3% 99.9%  
32 0.9% 99.6%  
33 3% 98.7%  
34 2% 96%  
35 5% 94%  
36 14% 88%  
37 5% 74%  
38 17% 69%  
39 12% 52% Median
40 6% 40%  
41 8% 34%  
42 7% 26%  
43 5% 19%  
44 4% 14%  
45 3% 10%  
46 2% 6%  
47 2% 5%  
48 2% 3%  
49 0.3% 0.6%  
50 0.1% 0.3%  
51 0.2% 0.3%  
52 0% 0%  

Vänsterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vänsterpartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0% 100% Last Result
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0.1% 100%  
27 0.3% 99.9%  
28 0.6% 99.6%  
29 2% 99.0%  
30 4% 97%  
31 6% 93%  
32 8% 87%  
33 8% 79%  
34 17% 71%  
35 12% 54% Median
36 15% 42%  
37 7% 28%  
38 5% 21%  
39 8% 16%  
40 3% 8%  
41 2% 5%  
42 2% 4%  
43 1.2% 2%  
44 0.2% 0.7%  
45 0.3% 0.5%  
46 0.1% 0.2%  
47 0% 0.1%  
48 0% 0.1%  
49 0.1% 0.1%  
50 0% 0%  

Liberalerna

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberalerna page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 27% 100%  
1 0% 73%  
2 0% 73%  
3 0% 73%  
4 0% 73%  
5 0% 73%  
6 0% 73%  
7 0% 73%  
8 0% 73%  
9 0% 73%  
10 0% 73%  
11 0% 73%  
12 0% 73%  
13 0% 73%  
14 0% 73%  
15 4% 73%  
16 25% 69% Median
17 17% 44%  
18 14% 27%  
19 6% 13% Last Result
20 5% 7%  
21 0.8% 2%  
22 0.8% 1.1%  
23 0.2% 0.3%  
24 0.1% 0.1%  
25 0% 0%  

Miljöpartiet de gröna

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljöpartiet de gröna page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 73% 100% Median
1 0% 27%  
2 0% 27%  
3 0% 27%  
4 0% 27%  
5 0% 27%  
6 0% 27%  
7 0% 27%  
8 0% 27%  
9 0% 27%  
10 0% 27%  
11 0% 27%  
12 0% 27%  
13 0% 27%  
14 0% 27%  
15 12% 27%  
16 6% 16%  
17 6% 10%  
18 3% 4%  
19 0.5% 0.8%  
20 0.1% 0.4%  
21 0.2% 0.2%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0% Last Result

Kristdemokraterna

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristdemokraterna page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 98% 100% Median
1 0% 2%  
2 0% 2%  
3 0% 2%  
4 0% 2%  
5 0% 2%  
6 0% 2%  
7 0% 2%  
8 0% 2%  
9 0% 2%  
10 0% 2%  
11 0% 2%  
12 0% 2%  
13 0% 2%  
14 0% 2%  
15 0.7% 2%  
16 1.1% 2% Last Result
17 0.4% 0.5%  
18 0.1% 0.2%  
19 0% 0%  

Feministiskt initiativ

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Feministiskt initiativ page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna – Feministiskt initiativ 159 129 0% 120–138 118–142 116–144 112–151
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna 159 129 0% 120–138 118–142 116–144 112–151
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna – Kristdemokraterna 141 125 0% 113–133 110–135 107–139 104–143
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet 134 125 0% 117–133 114–135 111–138 108–142
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna 125 125 0% 113–132 109–135 107–138 103–140
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna 122 111 0% 103–120 101–123 99–125 97–128
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet 106 111 0% 103–119 101–123 99–123 96–126
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Miljöpartiet de gröna 138 93 0% 85–104 83–107 82–109 79–115

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna – Feministiskt initiativ

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
109 0% 100%  
110 0.2% 99.9%  
111 0% 99.7%  
112 0.2% 99.7%  
113 0.6% 99.5%  
114 0.5% 98.9%  
115 0.7% 98%  
116 1.4% 98%  
117 0.6% 96%  
118 1.3% 96%  
119 3% 94%  
120 4% 91%  
121 2% 88%  
122 2% 86%  
123 6% 84%  
124 3% 78%  
125 4% 75% Median
126 7% 70%  
127 8% 64%  
128 4% 56%  
129 10% 53%  
130 3% 42%  
131 1.4% 40%  
132 7% 38%  
133 3% 31%  
134 5% 28%  
135 4% 23%  
136 1.5% 20%  
137 1.0% 18%  
138 9% 17%  
139 0.8% 8%  
140 0.6% 7%  
141 1.0% 6%  
142 0.8% 5%  
143 1.3% 4%  
144 0.9% 3%  
145 0.7% 2%  
146 0.4% 2%  
147 0.1% 1.1%  
148 0.3% 1.0%  
149 0.1% 0.6%  
150 0.1% 0.6%  
151 0.2% 0.5%  
152 0.1% 0.3%  
153 0% 0.2%  
154 0% 0.2%  
155 0.2% 0.2%  
156 0% 0%  
157 0% 0%  
158 0% 0%  
159 0% 0% Last Result

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
109 0% 100%  
110 0.2% 99.9%  
111 0% 99.7%  
112 0.2% 99.7%  
113 0.6% 99.5%  
114 0.5% 98.9%  
115 0.7% 98%  
116 1.4% 98%  
117 0.6% 96%  
118 1.3% 96%  
119 3% 94%  
120 4% 91%  
121 2% 88%  
122 2% 86%  
123 6% 84%  
124 3% 78%  
125 4% 75% Median
126 7% 70%  
127 8% 64%  
128 4% 56%  
129 10% 53%  
130 3% 42%  
131 1.4% 40%  
132 7% 38%  
133 3% 31%  
134 5% 28%  
135 4% 23%  
136 1.5% 20%  
137 1.0% 18%  
138 9% 17%  
139 0.8% 8%  
140 0.6% 7%  
141 1.0% 6%  
142 0.8% 5%  
143 1.3% 4%  
144 0.9% 3%  
145 0.7% 2%  
146 0.4% 2%  
147 0.1% 1.1%  
148 0.3% 1.0%  
149 0.1% 0.6%  
150 0.1% 0.6%  
151 0.2% 0.5%  
152 0.1% 0.3%  
153 0% 0.2%  
154 0% 0.2%  
155 0.2% 0.2%  
156 0% 0%  
157 0% 0%  
158 0% 0%  
159 0% 0% Last Result

Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna – Kristdemokraterna

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 99.9%  
101 0% 99.9%  
102 0.2% 99.9%  
103 0.1% 99.7%  
104 0.4% 99.6%  
105 0.2% 99.2%  
106 1.1% 99.0%  
107 0.9% 98%  
108 0.6% 97%  
109 0.9% 96%  
110 0.7% 95%  
111 1.3% 95%  
112 2% 93%  
113 2% 91%  
114 2% 89%  
115 2% 87%  
116 1.4% 85%  
117 6% 84%  
118 2% 78%  
119 2% 76%  
120 6% 74%  
121 2% 68%  
122 2% 66%  
123 7% 64%  
124 3% 57%  
125 16% 54%  
126 3% 38% Median
127 2% 35%  
128 2% 32%  
129 12% 31%  
130 2% 19%  
131 4% 17%  
132 3% 13%  
133 2% 10%  
134 1.3% 9%  
135 3% 7%  
136 0.7% 5%  
137 0.4% 4%  
138 0.5% 4%  
139 1.0% 3%  
140 1.0% 2%  
141 0.4% 1.2% Last Result
142 0.1% 0.8%  
143 0.4% 0.7%  
144 0.1% 0.3%  
145 0.1% 0.2%  
146 0% 0.1%  
147 0% 0.1%  
148 0% 0.1%  
149 0% 0.1%  
150 0% 0%  

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 99.9%  
107 0.2% 99.9%  
108 0.2% 99.7%  
109 0.1% 99.5%  
110 1.4% 99.4%  
111 0.7% 98%  
112 0.3% 97%  
113 2% 97%  
114 0.9% 95%  
115 1.3% 94%  
116 2% 93%  
117 5% 91%  
118 2% 86%  
119 5% 84%  
120 5% 80%  
121 3% 75%  
122 2% 71%  
123 13% 69%  
124 4% 56%  
125 4% 52% Median
126 7% 48%  
127 8% 41%  
128 4% 33%  
129 10% 29%  
130 2% 19%  
131 1.3% 17%  
132 5% 16%  
133 2% 10%  
134 1.4% 8% Last Result
135 3% 7%  
136 1.0% 4%  
137 0.5% 3%  
138 1.3% 3%  
139 0.4% 1.5%  
140 0.2% 1.1%  
141 0.3% 0.9%  
142 0.4% 0.7%  
143 0% 0.3%  
144 0% 0.3%  
145 0.2% 0.2%  
146 0% 0.1%  
147 0.1% 0.1%  
148 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 99.9%  
101 0.1% 99.9%  
102 0.2% 99.8%  
103 0.2% 99.6%  
104 0.5% 99.4%  
105 0.3% 98.9%  
106 1.1% 98.6%  
107 1.0% 98%  
108 0.7% 97%  
109 1.0% 96%  
110 0.7% 95%  
111 1.4% 94%  
112 2% 93%  
113 2% 90%  
114 2% 88%  
115 2% 86%  
116 1.4% 84%  
117 6% 83%  
118 2% 77%  
119 2% 75%  
120 6% 73%  
121 2% 67%  
122 2% 65%  
123 7% 63%  
124 3% 56%  
125 16% 53% Last Result
126 3% 36% Median
127 2% 33%  
128 2% 31%  
129 12% 29%  
130 2% 17%  
131 4% 16%  
132 3% 11%  
133 1.5% 9%  
134 1.3% 7%  
135 3% 6%  
136 0.5% 4%  
137 0.3% 3%  
138 0.4% 3%  
139 1.0% 2%  
140 1.0% 1.4%  
141 0.2% 0.5%  
142 0.1% 0.3%  
143 0.1% 0.2%  
144 0% 0.1%  
145 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
93 0% 100%  
94 0.2% 99.9%  
95 0% 99.8%  
96 0.2% 99.7%  
97 0.7% 99.5%  
98 0.8% 98.8%  
99 0.7% 98%  
100 1.4% 97%  
101 1.2% 96%  
102 3% 95%  
103 2% 92%  
104 3% 90%  
105 3% 86%  
106 6% 83%  
107 5% 78%  
108 4% 73%  
109 14% 70%  
110 3% 56% Median
111 7% 53%  
112 12% 46%  
113 4% 34%  
114 4% 30%  
115 3% 26%  
116 2% 23%  
117 5% 21%  
118 1.5% 16%  
119 4% 15%  
120 2% 11%  
121 2% 9%  
122 0.8% 7% Last Result
123 3% 6%  
124 0.4% 3%  
125 0.6% 3%  
126 1.2% 2%  
127 0.5% 1.1%  
128 0.1% 0.6%  
129 0.1% 0.5%  
130 0.1% 0.4%  
131 0.2% 0.3%  
132 0.1% 0.2%  
133 0.1% 0.1%  
134 0% 0.1%  
135 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 99.9%  
94 0.2% 99.9%  
95 0.1% 99.7%  
96 0.2% 99.7%  
97 0.7% 99.5%  
98 0.9% 98.7%  
99 0.7% 98%  
100 1.4% 97%  
101 1.3% 96%  
102 3% 94%  
103 2% 91%  
104 4% 89%  
105 3% 85%  
106 6% 82% Last Result
107 5% 77%  
108 4% 72%  
109 14% 68%  
110 3% 54% Median
111 7% 51%  
112 12% 44%  
113 4% 32%  
114 4% 28%  
115 3% 24%  
116 2% 21%  
117 5% 19%  
118 1.3% 14%  
119 3% 13%  
120 2% 9%  
121 1.4% 7%  
122 0.7% 6%  
123 3% 5%  
124 0.3% 2%  
125 0.4% 2%  
126 1.1% 2%  
127 0.2% 0.5%  
128 0% 0.3%  
129 0% 0.2%  
130 0% 0.2%  
131 0.1% 0.2%  
132 0% 0%  

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Miljöpartiet de gröna

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
75 0% 100%  
76 0.1% 99.9%  
77 0.1% 99.8%  
78 0.1% 99.7%  
79 0.4% 99.6%  
80 0.2% 99.2%  
81 1.2% 99.0%  
82 1.5% 98%  
83 1.3% 96%  
84 4% 95%  
85 2% 91%  
86 3% 89%  
87 5% 86%  
88 0.9% 81%  
89 6% 80%  
90 10% 74% Median
91 3% 64%  
92 4% 61%  
93 12% 57%  
94 4% 45%  
95 4% 42%  
96 2% 37%  
97 4% 35%  
98 3% 32%  
99 2% 28%  
100 7% 27%  
101 2% 20%  
102 1.2% 18%  
103 2% 17%  
104 7% 15%  
105 2% 8%  
106 0.4% 5%  
107 0.9% 5%  
108 0.6% 4%  
109 1.4% 3%  
110 0.2% 2%  
111 0.8% 2%  
112 0.2% 1.1%  
113 0.2% 0.8%  
114 0% 0.7%  
115 0.2% 0.6%  
116 0.3% 0.5%  
117 0% 0.1%  
118 0% 0.1%  
119 0% 0.1%  
120 0.1% 0.1%  
121 0% 0%  
122 0% 0%  
123 0% 0%  
124 0% 0%  
125 0% 0%  
126 0% 0%  
127 0% 0%  
128 0% 0%  
129 0% 0%  
130 0% 0%  
131 0% 0%  
132 0% 0%  
133 0% 0%  
134 0% 0%  
135 0% 0%  
136 0% 0%  
137 0% 0%  
138 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations