Opinion Poll by Sifo for Svenska Dagbladet, 7–17 May 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti 31.0% 25.2% 24.6–25.8% 24.4–26.0% 24.2–26.1% 24.0–26.4%
Moderata samlingspartiet 23.3% 23.6% 23.0–24.2% 22.8–24.4% 22.7–24.5% 22.4–24.8%
Sverigedemokraterna 12.9% 18.7% 18.1–19.3% 18.0–19.4% 17.8–19.5% 17.6–19.8%
Vänsterpartiet 5.7% 9.3% 8.9–9.7% 8.8–9.8% 8.7–9.9% 8.5–10.2%
Centerpartiet 6.1% 8.1% 7.7–8.5% 7.6–8.6% 7.5–8.7% 7.3–8.9%
Liberalerna 5.4% 4.8% 4.5–5.1% 4.4–5.2% 4.3–5.3% 4.2–5.4%
Miljöpartiet de gröna 6.9% 4.0% 3.7–4.3% 3.7–4.4% 3.6–4.5% 3.5–4.6%
Kristdemokraterna 4.6% 3.5% 3.2–3.8% 3.2–3.9% 3.1–3.9% 3.0–4.1%
Feministiskt initiativ 3.1% 1.6% 1.4–1.8% 1.4–1.8% 1.3–1.9% 1.3–2.0%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti 113 95 92–100 91–101 90–102 89–102
Moderata samlingspartiet 84 89 86–94 85–95 85–96 83–96
Sverigedemokraterna 49 71 67–73 67–74 67–76 66–76
Vänsterpartiet 21 35 33–37 33–37 33–38 32–39
Centerpartiet 22 31 29–32 29–33 28–34 27–34
Liberalerna 19 18 17–20 17–20 17–20 16–21
Miljöpartiet de gröna 25 15 0–16 0–16 0–17 0–17
Kristdemokraterna 16 0 0 0 0–14 0–15
Feministiskt initiativ 0 0 0 0 0 0

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
87 0.1% 100%  
88 0.1% 99.9%  
89 0.8% 99.8%  
90 3% 99.0%  
91 6% 96%  
92 4% 90%  
93 12% 86%  
94 9% 75%  
95 19% 65% Median
96 18% 46%  
97 5% 28%  
98 7% 23%  
99 4% 16%  
100 6% 12%  
101 3% 6%  
102 2% 3%  
103 0.2% 0.2%  
104 0% 0%  
105 0% 0%  
106 0% 0%  
107 0% 0%  
108 0% 0%  
109 0% 0%  
110 0% 0%  
111 0% 0%  
112 0% 0%  
113 0% 0% Last Result

Moderata samlingspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Moderata samlingspartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
81 0.1% 100%  
82 0.2% 99.9%  
83 0.6% 99.8%  
84 2% 99.2% Last Result
85 4% 98%  
86 6% 94%  
87 15% 88%  
88 10% 73%  
89 14% 63% Median
90 19% 50%  
91 7% 31%  
92 7% 23%  
93 3% 17%  
94 8% 13%  
95 3% 5%  
96 2% 3%  
97 0.2% 0.3%  
98 0.1% 0.1%  
99 0% 0%  

Sverigedemokraterna

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sverigedemokraterna page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0% 100% Last Result
50 0% 100%  
51 0% 100%  
52 0% 100%  
53 0% 100%  
54 0% 100%  
55 0% 100%  
56 0% 100%  
57 0% 100%  
58 0% 100%  
59 0% 100%  
60 0% 100%  
61 0% 100%  
62 0% 100%  
63 0% 100%  
64 0.1% 100%  
65 0.3% 99.9%  
66 2% 99.6%  
67 10% 98%  
68 10% 88%  
69 11% 78%  
70 15% 67%  
71 18% 52% Median
72 16% 35%  
73 9% 18%  
74 5% 9%  
75 2% 4%  
76 2% 3%  
77 0.4% 0.5%  
78 0.1% 0.1%  
79 0% 0%  

Vänsterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vänsterpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0% 100% Last Result
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0% 100%  
28 0% 100%  
29 0% 100%  
30 0% 100%  
31 0.2% 100%  
32 1.3% 99.8%  
33 18% 98.5%  
34 14% 81%  
35 32% 67% Median
36 16% 35%  
37 15% 19%  
38 3% 4%  
39 1.0% 1.2%  
40 0.2% 0.2%  
41 0% 0%  

Centerpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Centerpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0% 100% Last Result
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0.5% 100%  
28 4% 99.5%  
29 14% 95%  
30 22% 81%  
31 34% 59% Median
32 17% 25%  
33 6% 8%  
34 2% 3%  
35 0.4% 0.4%  
36 0% 0%  

Liberalerna

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberalerna page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.1% 100%  
16 2% 99.9%  
17 29% 98%  
18 32% 69% Median
19 26% 38% Last Result
20 10% 12%  
21 2% 2%  
22 0.1% 0.1%  
23 0% 0%  

Miljöpartiet de gröna

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljöpartiet de gröna page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 40% 100%  
1 0% 60%  
2 0% 60%  
3 0% 60%  
4 0% 60%  
5 0% 60%  
6 0% 60%  
7 0% 60%  
8 0% 60%  
9 0% 60%  
10 0% 60%  
11 0% 60%  
12 0% 60%  
13 0% 60%  
14 0.2% 60%  
15 45% 59% Median
16 11% 14%  
17 3% 3%  
18 0.2% 0.2%  
19 0% 0%  
20 0% 0%  
21 0% 0%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0% Last Result

Kristdemokraterna

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristdemokraterna page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 97% 100% Median
1 0% 3%  
2 0% 3%  
3 0% 3%  
4 0% 3%  
5 0% 3%  
6 0% 3%  
7 0% 3%  
8 0% 3%  
9 0% 3%  
10 0% 3%  
11 0% 3%  
12 0% 3%  
13 0% 3%  
14 0.7% 3%  
15 2% 2%  
16 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
17 0% 0%  

Feministiskt initiativ

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Feministiskt initiativ page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna – Kristdemokraterna 141 137 0% 134–144 133–146 132–147 131–152
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna – Feministiskt initiativ 159 141 0% 133–145 131–146 130–147 127–149
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna 159 141 0% 133–145 131–146 130–147 127–149
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna 125 137 0% 134–144 133–145 131–146 129–147
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet 134 130 0% 126–136 125–137 124–137 121–139
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna 122 120 0% 117–125 115–127 114–128 113–133
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet 106 120 0% 116–125 115–126 114–127 112–128
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Miljöpartiet de gröna 138 107 0% 96–111 96–111 95–112 92–114

Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna – Kristdemokraterna

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
129 0% 100%  
130 0.1% 99.9%  
131 2% 99.8%  
132 1.5% 98%  
133 2% 97%  
134 5% 94%  
135 8% 89%  
136 17% 82%  
137 15% 65%  
138 2% 50% Median
139 9% 48%  
140 4% 39%  
141 7% 34% Last Result
142 4% 28%  
143 8% 24%  
144 8% 16%  
145 3% 8%  
146 3% 5%  
147 0.9% 3%  
148 0.2% 2%  
149 0.1% 2%  
150 0.6% 1.5%  
151 0.1% 0.9%  
152 0.6% 0.8%  
153 0.1% 0.2%  
154 0% 0.1%  
155 0% 0%  

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna – Feministiskt initiativ

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
124 0.1% 100%  
125 0% 99.9%  
126 0.1% 99.9%  
127 0.5% 99.8%  
128 0.3% 99.3%  
129 0.3% 99.0%  
130 2% 98.7%  
131 2% 97%  
132 4% 95%  
133 12% 91%  
134 4% 79%  
135 5% 75%  
136 6% 70%  
137 4% 65%  
138 1.3% 61%  
139 1.0% 59%  
140 4% 58%  
141 6% 54%  
142 5% 48%  
143 13% 43%  
144 5% 30%  
145 17% 25% Median
146 4% 8%  
147 2% 4%  
148 1.1% 2%  
149 0.5% 0.6%  
150 0.1% 0.1%  
151 0% 0%  
152 0% 0%  
153 0% 0%  
154 0% 0%  
155 0% 0%  
156 0% 0%  
157 0% 0%  
158 0% 0%  
159 0% 0% Last Result

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
124 0.1% 100%  
125 0% 99.9%  
126 0.1% 99.9%  
127 0.5% 99.8%  
128 0.3% 99.3%  
129 0.3% 99.0%  
130 2% 98.7%  
131 2% 97%  
132 4% 95%  
133 12% 91%  
134 4% 79%  
135 5% 75%  
136 6% 70%  
137 4% 65%  
138 1.3% 61%  
139 1.0% 59%  
140 4% 58%  
141 6% 54%  
142 5% 48%  
143 13% 43%  
144 5% 30%  
145 17% 25% Median
146 4% 8%  
147 2% 4%  
148 1.1% 2%  
149 0.5% 0.6%  
150 0.1% 0.1%  
151 0% 0%  
152 0% 0%  
153 0% 0%  
154 0% 0%  
155 0% 0%  
156 0% 0%  
157 0% 0%  
158 0% 0%  
159 0% 0% Last Result

Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
125 0% 100% Last Result
126 0% 100%  
127 0% 100%  
128 0.2% 99.9%  
129 0.3% 99.7%  
130 0.2% 99.5%  
131 2% 99.3%  
132 2% 97%  
133 2% 96%  
134 5% 93%  
135 8% 88%  
136 17% 80%  
137 16% 63%  
138 2% 47% Median
139 9% 45%  
140 5% 36%  
141 7% 31%  
142 3% 25%  
143 8% 21%  
144 8% 14%  
145 2% 6%  
146 3% 4%  
147 0.8% 0.9%  
148 0.1% 0.2%  
149 0% 0.1%  
150 0% 0%  

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
120 0.1% 100%  
121 0.4% 99.9%  
122 0.1% 99.5%  
123 0.5% 99.4%  
124 3% 98.9%  
125 3% 96%  
126 8% 94%  
127 6% 86%  
128 12% 80%  
129 7% 68%  
130 17% 61% Median
131 7% 44%  
132 5% 38%  
133 12% 32%  
134 4% 20% Last Result
135 5% 16%  
136 5% 11%  
137 4% 6%  
138 1.1% 2%  
139 0.3% 0.6%  
140 0.2% 0.3%  
141 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
112 0.1% 100%  
113 1.0% 99.8%  
114 2% 98.9%  
115 2% 97%  
116 4% 95%  
117 7% 91%  
118 10% 84%  
119 22% 75%  
120 6% 52% Median
121 14% 46%  
122 4% 33% Last Result
123 6% 28%  
124 5% 22%  
125 9% 18%  
126 3% 8%  
127 1.2% 5%  
128 2% 4%  
129 0.4% 2%  
130 0.2% 2%  
131 0.1% 2%  
132 0.7% 2%  
133 0.3% 0.8%  
134 0% 0.5%  
135 0.4% 0.5%  
136 0% 0.1%  
137 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
106 0% 100% Last Result
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0.1% 100%  
111 0.2% 99.9%  
112 0.2% 99.7%  
113 1.2% 99.4%  
114 2% 98%  
115 3% 96%  
116 4% 94%  
117 7% 90%  
118 10% 83%  
119 22% 72%  
120 7% 50% Median
121 14% 44%  
122 4% 30%  
123 6% 26%  
124 5% 20%  
125 9% 15%  
126 3% 6%  
127 1.1% 3%  
128 2% 2%  
129 0.3% 0.4%  
130 0% 0.1%  
131 0% 0%  

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Miljöpartiet de gröna

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
91 0.1% 100%  
92 0.5% 99.9%  
93 0.2% 99.4%  
94 1.3% 99.1%  
95 0.9% 98%  
96 11% 97%  
97 4% 86%  
98 6% 81%  
99 4% 75%  
100 6% 72%  
101 3% 66%  
102 3% 62%  
103 0.3% 60%  
104 0.8% 59%  
105 2% 59%  
106 4% 56%  
107 3% 53%  
108 12% 49%  
109 7% 38%  
110 20% 30% Median
111 6% 10%  
112 2% 4%  
113 1.2% 2%  
114 0.4% 0.6%  
115 0.2% 0.2%  
116 0% 0%  
117 0% 0%  
118 0% 0%  
119 0% 0%  
120 0% 0%  
121 0% 0%  
122 0% 0%  
123 0% 0%  
124 0% 0%  
125 0% 0%  
126 0% 0%  
127 0% 0%  
128 0% 0%  
129 0% 0%  
130 0% 0%  
131 0% 0%  
132 0% 0%  
133 0% 0%  
134 0% 0%  
135 0% 0%  
136 0% 0%  
137 0% 0%  
138 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations