Opinion Poll by Ipsos for Dagens Nyheter, 10–21 May 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti 31.0% 23.8% 22.5–25.1% 22.2–25.5% 21.9–25.8% 21.3–26.4%
Moderata samlingspartiet 23.3% 21.8% 20.6–23.1% 20.2–23.4% 19.9–23.7% 19.4–24.4%
Sverigedemokraterna 12.9% 19.8% 18.6–21.0% 18.3–21.4% 18.0–21.7% 17.5–22.3%
Centerpartiet 6.1% 8.9% 8.1–9.8% 7.9–10.1% 7.7–10.3% 7.3–10.8%
Vänsterpartiet 5.7% 8.9% 8.1–9.8% 7.9–10.1% 7.7–10.3% 7.3–10.8%
Liberalerna 5.4% 5.0% 4.3–5.7% 4.2–5.9% 4.0–6.1% 3.8–6.4%
Miljöpartiet de gröna 6.9% 4.0% 3.4–4.6% 3.3–4.8% 3.2–5.0% 2.9–5.3%
Kristdemokraterna 4.6% 4.0% 3.4–4.6% 3.3–4.8% 3.2–5.0% 2.9–5.3%
Feministiskt initiativ 3.1% 2.0% 1.6–2.5% 1.5–2.6% 1.4–2.7% 1.3–3.0%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti 113 90 84–95 82–97 80–99 78–102
Moderata samlingspartiet 84 82 76–90 75–92 74–92 71–94
Sverigedemokraterna 49 75 69–80 68–82 67–83 64–86
Centerpartiet 22 30 28–34 27–35 27–36 26–42
Vänsterpartiet 21 37 34–40 33–41 31–42 27–43
Liberalerna 19 19 16–21 16–22 15–23 0–24
Miljöpartiet de gröna 25 15 0–17 0–18 0–18 0–20
Kristdemokraterna 16 0 0–17 0–18 0–18 0–20
Feministiskt initiativ 0 0 0 0 0 0

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
75 0% 100%  
76 0.1% 99.9%  
77 0.1% 99.9%  
78 0.6% 99.8%  
79 0.6% 99.2%  
80 2% 98.5%  
81 1.3% 97%  
82 1.2% 96%  
83 3% 94%  
84 5% 92%  
85 3% 87%  
86 3% 84%  
87 6% 81%  
88 8% 76%  
89 11% 68%  
90 11% 57% Median
91 5% 46%  
92 13% 41%  
93 11% 27%  
94 5% 17%  
95 2% 12%  
96 5% 10%  
97 0.8% 5%  
98 2% 5%  
99 0.3% 3%  
100 1.0% 2%  
101 0.6% 1.2%  
102 0.3% 0.6%  
103 0.1% 0.3%  
104 0.1% 0.2%  
105 0% 0.1%  
106 0.1% 0.1%  
107 0% 0%  
108 0% 0%  
109 0% 0%  
110 0% 0%  
111 0% 0%  
112 0% 0%  
113 0% 0% Last Result

Moderata samlingspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Moderata samlingspartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
68 0% 100%  
69 0.1% 99.9%  
70 0.3% 99.9%  
71 0.4% 99.6%  
72 0.3% 99.2%  
73 0.7% 98.9%  
74 2% 98%  
75 4% 96%  
76 3% 92%  
77 4% 89%  
78 6% 85%  
79 9% 79%  
80 13% 70%  
81 7% 57%  
82 6% 51% Median
83 6% 44%  
84 5% 39% Last Result
85 4% 34%  
86 11% 30%  
87 3% 19%  
88 3% 16%  
89 2% 13%  
90 1.3% 10%  
91 3% 9%  
92 5% 6%  
93 0.3% 1.1%  
94 0.5% 0.8%  
95 0.1% 0.3%  
96 0.1% 0.2%  
97 0.1% 0.1%  
98 0% 0.1%  
99 0% 0%  

Sverigedemokraterna

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sverigedemokraterna page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0% 100% Last Result
50 0% 100%  
51 0% 100%  
52 0% 100%  
53 0% 100%  
54 0% 100%  
55 0% 100%  
56 0% 100%  
57 0% 100%  
58 0% 100%  
59 0% 100%  
60 0% 100%  
61 0% 100%  
62 0% 100%  
63 0.3% 99.9%  
64 0.3% 99.7%  
65 0.4% 99.3%  
66 1.3% 98.9%  
67 2% 98%  
68 1.2% 96%  
69 8% 95%  
70 6% 87%  
71 3% 80%  
72 13% 78%  
73 11% 64%  
74 3% 53%  
75 7% 50% Median
76 11% 43%  
77 5% 33%  
78 7% 28%  
79 6% 21%  
80 6% 15%  
81 1.3% 9%  
82 4% 8%  
83 1.1% 3%  
84 0.4% 2%  
85 0.9% 2%  
86 0.4% 0.8%  
87 0.2% 0.4%  
88 0% 0.2%  
89 0.1% 0.2%  
90 0% 0.1%  
91 0% 0%  

Centerpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Centerpartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0% 100% Last Result
23 0% 100%  
24 0.1% 100%  
25 0.3% 99.9%  
26 1.0% 99.6%  
27 5% 98.6%  
28 9% 94%  
29 13% 84%  
30 23% 71% Median
31 18% 49%  
32 14% 31%  
33 6% 17%  
34 5% 10%  
35 2% 6%  
36 1.4% 4%  
37 0.5% 2%  
38 0.5% 2%  
39 0.5% 2%  
40 0.3% 1.1%  
41 0.3% 0.8%  
42 0.2% 0.6%  
43 0.2% 0.3%  
44 0.1% 0.2%  
45 0% 0.1%  
46 0% 0%  

Vänsterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vänsterpartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0% 100% Last Result
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0.1% 100%  
26 0.2% 99.9%  
27 0.3% 99.7%  
28 0.3% 99.4%  
29 0.4% 99.1%  
30 0.5% 98.7%  
31 0.7% 98%  
32 2% 97%  
33 3% 95%  
34 7% 93%  
35 11% 85%  
36 16% 74%  
37 14% 59% Median
38 23% 45%  
39 6% 22%  
40 8% 17%  
41 4% 9%  
42 3% 5%  
43 0.8% 1.3%  
44 0.3% 0.5%  
45 0.1% 0.2%  
46 0.1% 0.1%  
47 0% 0%  

Liberalerna

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberalerna page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 2% 100%  
1 0% 98%  
2 0% 98%  
3 0% 98%  
4 0% 98%  
5 0% 98%  
6 0% 98%  
7 0% 98%  
8 0% 98%  
9 0% 98%  
10 0% 98%  
11 0% 98%  
12 0% 98%  
13 0% 98%  
14 0% 98%  
15 2% 98%  
16 5% 95%  
17 18% 90%  
18 18% 72%  
19 10% 54% Last Result, Median
20 27% 44%  
21 9% 16%  
22 3% 8%  
23 3% 4%  
24 1.3% 2%  
25 0.3% 0.4%  
26 0.1% 0.1%  
27 0% 0%  

Miljöpartiet de gröna

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljöpartiet de gröna page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 48% 100%  
1 0% 52%  
2 0% 52%  
3 0% 52%  
4 0% 52%  
5 0% 52%  
6 0% 52%  
7 0% 52%  
8 0% 52%  
9 0% 52%  
10 0% 52%  
11 0% 52%  
12 0% 52%  
13 0% 52%  
14 0.4% 52%  
15 16% 52% Median
16 21% 36%  
17 9% 15%  
18 4% 6%  
19 2% 2%  
20 0.4% 0.5%  
21 0.1% 0.1%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0% Last Result

Kristdemokraterna

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristdemokraterna page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 55% 100% Median
1 0% 45%  
2 0% 45%  
3 0% 45%  
4 0% 45%  
5 0% 45%  
6 0% 45%  
7 0% 45%  
8 0% 45%  
9 0% 45%  
10 0% 45%  
11 0% 45%  
12 0% 45%  
13 0% 45%  
14 0.8% 45%  
15 14% 45%  
16 16% 30% Last Result
17 8% 15%  
18 4% 6%  
19 2% 2%  
20 0.4% 0.5%  
21 0.1% 0.1%  
22 0% 0%  

Feministiskt initiativ

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Feministiskt initiativ page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna – Kristdemokraterna 141 140 0% 129–147 128–150 127–153 118–157
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna – Feministiskt initiativ 159 135 0% 127–146 124–147 122–148 118–152
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna 159 135 0% 127–146 124–147 122–148 118–152
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna 125 131 0% 124–142 120–142 119–143 114–148
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet 134 127 0% 120–134 117–136 116–138 113–142
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna 122 121 0% 110–129 109–131 109–134 107–138
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet 106 113 0% 106–122 104–124 103–125 100–128
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Miljöpartiet de gröna 138 98 0% 90–109 88–110 86–112 82–114

Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna – Kristdemokraterna

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
115 0% 100%  
116 0% 99.9%  
117 0.1% 99.9%  
118 0.5% 99.9%  
119 0.1% 99.4%  
120 0.1% 99.3%  
121 0.1% 99.2%  
122 0.1% 99.1%  
123 0.2% 99.0%  
124 0.2% 98.8%  
125 0.3% 98.6%  
126 0.5% 98%  
127 2% 98%  
128 3% 96%  
129 6% 93%  
130 0.8% 88%  
131 2% 87% Median
132 2% 85%  
133 5% 82%  
134 5% 77%  
135 3% 72%  
136 7% 69%  
137 5% 62%  
138 2% 57%  
139 3% 55%  
140 10% 52%  
141 4% 42% Last Result
142 10% 38%  
143 5% 29%  
144 2% 23%  
145 2% 21%  
146 4% 19%  
147 6% 15%  
148 2% 9%  
149 2% 8%  
150 1.2% 6%  
151 0.8% 4%  
152 0.5% 4%  
153 1.1% 3%  
154 0.7% 2%  
155 0.5% 1.3%  
156 0.1% 0.8%  
157 0.2% 0.7%  
158 0.3% 0.5%  
159 0.1% 0.2%  
160 0% 0.1%  
161 0% 0.1%  
162 0% 0.1%  
163 0% 0%  

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna – Feministiskt initiativ

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
113 0% 100%  
114 0.1% 99.9%  
115 0.1% 99.9%  
116 0.1% 99.8%  
117 0.1% 99.7%  
118 0.1% 99.6%  
119 0.1% 99.5%  
120 0.9% 99.4%  
121 0.7% 98%  
122 2% 98%  
123 0.9% 96%  
124 0.7% 95%  
125 2% 95%  
126 2% 93%  
127 2% 91%  
128 6% 89%  
129 6% 83%  
130 10% 77%  
131 3% 67%  
132 4% 64%  
133 3% 61%  
134 4% 57%  
135 5% 53%  
136 2% 49%  
137 5% 47%  
138 4% 42%  
139 5% 38%  
140 7% 33%  
141 8% 26%  
142 1.3% 18% Median
143 3% 17%  
144 2% 14%  
145 1.2% 12%  
146 0.9% 11%  
147 6% 10%  
148 2% 4%  
149 0.8% 2%  
150 0.2% 1.2%  
151 0.2% 1.0%  
152 0.6% 0.8%  
153 0% 0.2%  
154 0.1% 0.2%  
155 0% 0.1%  
156 0% 0.1%  
157 0% 0%  
158 0% 0%  
159 0% 0% Last Result

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
113 0% 100%  
114 0.1% 99.9%  
115 0.1% 99.9%  
116 0.1% 99.8%  
117 0.1% 99.7%  
118 0.1% 99.6%  
119 0.1% 99.5%  
120 0.9% 99.4%  
121 0.7% 98%  
122 2% 98%  
123 0.9% 96%  
124 0.7% 95%  
125 2% 95%  
126 2% 93%  
127 2% 91%  
128 6% 89%  
129 6% 83%  
130 10% 77%  
131 3% 67%  
132 4% 64%  
133 3% 61%  
134 4% 57%  
135 5% 53%  
136 2% 49%  
137 5% 47%  
138 4% 42%  
139 5% 38%  
140 7% 33%  
141 8% 26%  
142 1.3% 18% Median
143 3% 17%  
144 2% 14%  
145 1.2% 12%  
146 0.9% 11%  
147 6% 10%  
148 2% 4%  
149 0.8% 2%  
150 0.2% 1.2%  
151 0.2% 1.0%  
152 0.6% 0.8%  
153 0% 0.2%  
154 0.1% 0.2%  
155 0% 0.1%  
156 0% 0.1%  
157 0% 0%  
158 0% 0%  
159 0% 0% Last Result

Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 99.9%  
110 0.2% 99.9%  
111 0.1% 99.7%  
112 0% 99.6%  
113 0.1% 99.6%  
114 0.1% 99.5%  
115 0.2% 99.4%  
116 0.1% 99.2%  
117 0.3% 99.1%  
118 0.8% 98.8%  
119 1.1% 98%  
120 3% 97%  
121 0.7% 94%  
122 0.3% 94%  
123 0.9% 93%  
124 3% 92%  
125 9% 90% Last Result
126 6% 81%  
127 4% 74%  
128 4% 70%  
129 7% 67%  
130 3% 60%  
131 9% 56% Median
132 4% 48%  
133 6% 43%  
134 5% 37%  
135 3% 32%  
136 6% 30%  
137 6% 24%  
138 2% 18%  
139 1.0% 16%  
140 3% 15%  
141 2% 13%  
142 7% 11%  
143 2% 4%  
144 0.4% 2%  
145 0.5% 1.4%  
146 0.2% 0.9%  
147 0.1% 0.7%  
148 0.2% 0.5%  
149 0.1% 0.4%  
150 0.1% 0.2%  
151 0.1% 0.2%  
152 0% 0.1%  
153 0% 0%  

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 99.9%  
110 0.1% 99.9%  
111 0.1% 99.8%  
112 0.1% 99.7%  
113 0.3% 99.6%  
114 0.7% 99.3%  
115 0.4% 98.6%  
116 2% 98%  
117 2% 96%  
118 2% 95%  
119 2% 92%  
120 3% 91%  
121 3% 88%  
122 7% 85%  
123 4% 78%  
124 4% 74%  
125 12% 70%  
126 4% 58%  
127 5% 55% Median
128 7% 49%  
129 6% 42%  
130 12% 36%  
131 8% 24%  
132 3% 16%  
133 2% 13%  
134 2% 11% Last Result
135 3% 9%  
136 1.2% 6%  
137 1.4% 5%  
138 1.4% 3%  
139 0.6% 2%  
140 0.5% 1.2%  
141 0.2% 0.7%  
142 0.3% 0.5%  
143 0% 0.2%  
144 0.1% 0.2%  
145 0% 0.1%  
146 0% 0.1%  
147 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
103 0.1% 100%  
104 0.1% 99.9%  
105 0.1% 99.8%  
106 0.2% 99.7%  
107 0.8% 99.5%  
108 0.6% 98.7%  
109 6% 98%  
110 2% 92%  
111 2% 89%  
112 2% 88% Median
113 2% 86%  
114 4% 83%  
115 3% 79%  
116 7% 76%  
117 7% 70%  
118 5% 63%  
119 4% 57%  
120 3% 54%  
121 2% 50%  
122 8% 49% Last Result
123 7% 41%  
124 5% 34%  
125 4% 29%  
126 3% 25%  
127 8% 22%  
128 2% 14%  
129 3% 12%  
130 2% 9%  
131 3% 7%  
132 1.0% 5%  
133 1.0% 4%  
134 0.8% 3%  
135 0.3% 2%  
136 0.7% 2%  
137 0.2% 1.0%  
138 0.4% 0.9%  
139 0.2% 0.5%  
140 0.1% 0.3%  
141 0% 0.2%  
142 0% 0.2%  
143 0% 0.1%  
144 0% 0.1%  
145 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
98 0.1% 100%  
99 0.2% 99.9%  
100 0.6% 99.7%  
101 0.3% 99.1%  
102 1.1% 98.8%  
103 2% 98%  
104 2% 96%  
105 1.4% 93%  
106 3% 92% Last Result
107 4% 89%  
108 8% 85%  
109 8% 77%  
110 6% 69%  
111 8% 63%  
112 4% 54% Median
113 5% 51%  
114 6% 46%  
115 4% 40%  
116 7% 36%  
117 7% 28%  
118 5% 21%  
119 3% 17%  
120 2% 14%  
121 1.5% 12%  
122 3% 11%  
123 0.9% 8%  
124 4% 7%  
125 2% 3%  
126 0.3% 1.4%  
127 0.4% 1.1%  
128 0.3% 0.7%  
129 0.1% 0.5%  
130 0.1% 0.4%  
131 0.1% 0.2%  
132 0% 0.2%  
133 0.1% 0.1%  
134 0% 0.1%  
135 0% 0%  

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Miljöpartiet de gröna

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
78 0.1% 100%  
79 0% 99.9%  
80 0.1% 99.9%  
81 0.2% 99.8%  
82 0.4% 99.7%  
83 0.5% 99.3%  
84 0.4% 98.8%  
85 0.6% 98%  
86 1.3% 98%  
87 1.1% 97%  
88 3% 95%  
89 2% 92%  
90 7% 91%  
91 3% 84%  
92 12% 81%  
93 4% 69%  
94 3% 64%  
95 2% 62%  
96 5% 60%  
97 1.5% 55%  
98 3% 53%  
99 5% 50%  
100 2% 45%  
101 3% 43%  
102 3% 40%  
103 5% 37%  
104 2% 32%  
105 13% 30% Median
106 2% 17%  
107 1.3% 16%  
108 3% 14%  
109 6% 11%  
110 1.1% 5%  
111 1.2% 4%  
112 1.4% 3%  
113 0.6% 1.5%  
114 0.6% 0.8%  
115 0% 0.2%  
116 0.1% 0.1%  
117 0% 0.1%  
118 0% 0%  
119 0% 0%  
120 0% 0%  
121 0% 0%  
122 0% 0%  
123 0% 0%  
124 0% 0%  
125 0% 0%  
126 0% 0%  
127 0% 0%  
128 0% 0%  
129 0% 0%  
130 0% 0%  
131 0% 0%  
132 0% 0%  
133 0% 0%  
134 0% 0%  
135 0% 0%  
136 0% 0%  
137 0% 0%  
138 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations