Opinion Poll by Inizio for Aftonbladet, 21–30 May 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti 31.0% 24.5% 23.3–25.7% 23.0–26.1% 22.7–26.4% 22.1–27.0%
Moderata samlingspartiet 23.3% 22.0% 20.9–23.2% 20.5–23.5% 20.3–23.8% 19.7–24.4%
Sverigedemokraterna 12.9% 19.5% 18.4–20.6% 18.1–20.9% 17.8–21.2% 17.3–21.8%
Centerpartiet 6.1% 9.5% 8.7–10.4% 8.5–10.6% 8.3–10.8% 8.0–11.3%
Vänsterpartiet 5.7% 8.2% 7.5–9.0% 7.3–9.2% 7.1–9.4% 6.8–9.8%
Kristdemokraterna 4.6% 4.9% 4.4–5.6% 4.2–5.8% 4.1–5.9% 3.8–6.3%
Liberalerna 5.4% 4.3% 3.8–4.9% 3.6–5.1% 3.5–5.3% 3.3–5.6%
Miljöpartiet de gröna 6.9% 3.9% 3.4–4.5% 3.2–4.6% 3.1–4.8% 2.9–5.1%
Feministiskt initiativ 3.1% 1.5% 1.2–1.9% 1.1–2.0% 1.1–2.1% 0.9–2.3%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti 113 91 86–96 84–98 84–99 81–103
Moderata samlingspartiet 84 82 76–87 76–88 74–89 72–93
Sverigedemokraterna 49 72 68–77 67–78 65–80 63–84
Centerpartiet 22 36 33–39 31–40 31–41 29–42
Vänsterpartiet 21 30 28–33 27–34 26–35 25–37
Kristdemokraterna 16 18 16–21 16–22 15–22 0–23
Liberalerna 19 16 0–18 0–19 0–19 0–20
Miljöpartiet de gröna 25 0 0–16 0–17 0–17 0–19
Feministiskt initiativ 0 0 0 0 0 0

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 99.9%  
79 0.1% 99.9%  
80 0.2% 99.8%  
81 0.5% 99.7%  
82 0.5% 99.2%  
83 1.2% 98.7%  
84 3% 98%  
85 3% 95%  
86 4% 92%  
87 5% 88%  
88 5% 83%  
89 16% 77%  
90 6% 62%  
91 21% 56% Median
92 7% 35%  
93 3% 28%  
94 6% 25%  
95 3% 19%  
96 6% 15%  
97 2% 9%  
98 4% 7%  
99 0.9% 3%  
100 0.8% 2%  
101 0.6% 1.5%  
102 0.4% 0.9%  
103 0.1% 0.5%  
104 0.2% 0.5%  
105 0.1% 0.3%  
106 0.1% 0.2%  
107 0% 0%  
108 0% 0%  
109 0% 0%  
110 0% 0%  
111 0% 0%  
112 0% 0%  
113 0% 0% Last Result

Moderata samlingspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Moderata samlingspartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
69 0% 100%  
70 0.1% 99.9%  
71 0.1% 99.8%  
72 0.3% 99.8%  
73 0.4% 99.5%  
74 3% 99.0%  
75 1.1% 96%  
76 8% 95%  
77 4% 87%  
78 14% 83%  
79 7% 69%  
80 7% 62%  
81 5% 55%  
82 7% 50% Median
83 4% 43%  
84 11% 39% Last Result
85 5% 27%  
86 4% 22%  
87 11% 18%  
88 4% 7%  
89 1.3% 4%  
90 0.7% 2%  
91 0.7% 2%  
92 0.3% 1.0%  
93 0.4% 0.7%  
94 0.1% 0.3%  
95 0% 0.2%  
96 0.1% 0.1%  
97 0% 0%  

Sverigedemokraterna

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sverigedemokraterna page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0% 100% Last Result
50 0% 100%  
51 0% 100%  
52 0% 100%  
53 0% 100%  
54 0% 100%  
55 0% 100%  
56 0% 100%  
57 0% 100%  
58 0% 100%  
59 0% 100%  
60 0% 100%  
61 0.1% 100%  
62 0.2% 99.9%  
63 0.3% 99.7%  
64 0.9% 99.3%  
65 2% 98%  
66 1.4% 97%  
67 5% 95%  
68 4% 91%  
69 6% 87%  
70 11% 81%  
71 14% 70%  
72 7% 56% Median
73 14% 50%  
74 11% 36%  
75 8% 25%  
76 8% 18%  
77 4% 10%  
78 1.1% 6%  
79 1.5% 5%  
80 2% 3%  
81 0.6% 2%  
82 0.2% 1.0%  
83 0.3% 0.8%  
84 0.4% 0.5%  
85 0% 0.1%  
86 0% 0.1%  
87 0% 0%  

Centerpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Centerpartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0% 100% Last Result
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0% 100%  
28 0.2% 100%  
29 0.6% 99.8%  
30 1.0% 99.3%  
31 4% 98%  
32 4% 94%  
33 8% 90%  
34 7% 82%  
35 24% 76%  
36 17% 52% Median
37 8% 35%  
38 14% 27%  
39 6% 13%  
40 4% 7%  
41 2% 3%  
42 0.4% 0.8%  
43 0.3% 0.4%  
44 0.1% 0.2%  
45 0.1% 0.1%  
46 0% 0%  

Vänsterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vänsterpartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0% 100% Last Result
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0.3% 99.9%  
25 1.2% 99.6%  
26 2% 98%  
27 4% 97%  
28 6% 93%  
29 22% 87%  
30 18% 64% Median
31 12% 46%  
32 18% 35%  
33 10% 17%  
34 3% 7%  
35 2% 3%  
36 1.0% 2%  
37 0.3% 0.5%  
38 0.1% 0.2%  
39 0.1% 0.1%  
40 0% 0%  

Kristdemokraterna

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristdemokraterna page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 1.2% 100%  
1 0% 98.8%  
2 0% 98.8%  
3 0% 98.8%  
4 0% 98.8%  
5 0% 98.8%  
6 0% 98.8%  
7 0% 98.8%  
8 0% 98.8%  
9 0% 98.8%  
10 0% 98.8%  
11 0% 98.8%  
12 0% 98.8%  
13 0% 98.8%  
14 0% 98.8%  
15 2% 98.7%  
16 10% 97% Last Result
17 10% 87%  
18 30% 77% Median
19 13% 47%  
20 22% 33%  
21 5% 12%  
22 6% 7%  
23 0.5% 1.0%  
24 0.4% 0.5%  
25 0% 0.1%  
26 0% 0%  

Liberalerna

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberalerna page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 19% 100%  
1 0% 81%  
2 0% 81%  
3 0% 81%  
4 0% 81%  
5 0% 81%  
6 0% 81%  
7 0% 81%  
8 0% 81%  
9 0% 81%  
10 0% 81%  
11 0% 81%  
12 0% 81%  
13 0% 81%  
14 0.1% 81%  
15 9% 81%  
16 26% 72% Median
17 24% 46%  
18 16% 22%  
19 5% 6% Last Result
20 1.2% 2%  
21 0.2% 0.3%  
22 0.1% 0.1%  
23 0% 0%  

Miljöpartiet de gröna

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljöpartiet de gröna page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 64% 100% Median
1 0% 36%  
2 0% 36%  
3 0% 36%  
4 0% 36%  
5 0% 36%  
6 0% 36%  
7 0% 36%  
8 0% 36%  
9 0% 36%  
10 0% 36%  
11 0% 36%  
12 0% 36%  
13 0% 36%  
14 1.0% 36%  
15 14% 35%  
16 11% 21%  
17 8% 10%  
18 1.5% 2%  
19 0.6% 0.7%  
20 0.1% 0.1%  
21 0% 0%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0% Last Result

Feministiskt initiativ

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Feministiskt initiativ page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna – Liberalerna 141 150 0% 140–157 134–157 134–157 129–161
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna 122 136 0% 128–141 127–146 126–147 120–151
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna – Feministiskt initiativ 159 126 0% 120–138 118–141 116–143 115–145
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna 159 126 0% 120–138 118–141 116–143 115–145
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna 125 132 0% 122–138 116–139 114–141 112–144
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet 134 121 0% 116–128 114–129 112–131 110–135
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet 106 118 0% 111–124 109–126 109–127 105–132
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Miljöpartiet de gröna 138 95 0% 89–108 88–110 86–112 84–114

Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna – Liberalerna

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
120 0.2% 100%  
121 0% 99.8%  
122 0% 99.8%  
123 0% 99.8%  
124 0% 99.8%  
125 0.1% 99.8%  
126 0% 99.7%  
127 0% 99.7%  
128 0% 99.7%  
129 0.2% 99.6%  
130 0.3% 99.4%  
131 0.1% 99.1%  
132 0.1% 99.0%  
133 0.2% 99.0%  
134 4% 98.8%  
135 0.3% 95%  
136 1.0% 95%  
137 0.4% 94%  
138 0.4% 93%  
139 0.9% 93%  
140 3% 92%  
141 2% 89% Last Result
142 0.8% 87%  
143 4% 86%  
144 6% 82%  
145 2% 76%  
146 9% 74%  
147 2% 65%  
148 1.1% 63%  
149 6% 62%  
150 8% 56%  
151 3% 48%  
152 2% 45% Median
153 11% 43%  
154 1.3% 32%  
155 1.0% 31%  
156 16% 30%  
157 12% 14%  
158 0.4% 2%  
159 0.2% 2%  
160 0.9% 2%  
161 0.2% 0.7%  
162 0.2% 0.5%  
163 0.1% 0.3%  
164 0.1% 0.2%  
165 0% 0.1%  
166 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
115 0% 100%  
116 0% 99.9%  
117 0% 99.9%  
118 0.1% 99.9%  
119 0.1% 99.8%  
120 0.2% 99.7%  
121 0.2% 99.5%  
122 0.4% 99.3% Last Result
123 0.3% 98.9%  
124 0.4% 98.6%  
125 0.2% 98%  
126 0.8% 98%  
127 6% 97%  
128 2% 92%  
129 8% 89%  
130 2% 81%  
131 2% 79%  
132 2% 77%  
133 8% 75%  
134 9% 67%  
135 3% 58%  
136 10% 55% Median
137 2% 45%  
138 8% 43%  
139 8% 36%  
140 8% 27%  
141 9% 19%  
142 0.4% 9%  
143 0.8% 9%  
144 0.6% 8%  
145 0.6% 8%  
146 4% 7%  
147 1.2% 3%  
148 0.7% 2%  
149 0.1% 1.0%  
150 0% 0.9%  
151 0.5% 0.9%  
152 0.3% 0.4%  
153 0% 0.2%  
154 0.1% 0.2%  
155 0.1% 0.1%  
156 0% 0%  

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna – Feministiskt initiativ

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
111 0% 100%  
112 0.1% 99.9%  
113 0.1% 99.8%  
114 0.1% 99.7%  
115 0.5% 99.6%  
116 2% 99.1%  
117 1.5% 97%  
118 2% 95%  
119 3% 94%  
120 9% 90%  
121 16% 82% Median
122 3% 66%  
123 1.3% 63%  
124 5% 62%  
125 3% 56%  
126 5% 53%  
127 2% 48%  
128 4% 46%  
129 7% 43%  
130 2% 36%  
131 2% 33%  
132 7% 31%  
133 3% 24%  
134 5% 21%  
135 3% 16%  
136 2% 13%  
137 0.9% 11%  
138 2% 10%  
139 0.5% 8%  
140 0.8% 8%  
141 3% 7%  
142 0.3% 4%  
143 1.1% 3%  
144 2% 2%  
145 0.3% 0.7%  
146 0.1% 0.5%  
147 0.1% 0.3%  
148 0% 0.2%  
149 0.1% 0.2%  
150 0% 0%  
151 0% 0%  
152 0% 0%  
153 0% 0%  
154 0% 0%  
155 0% 0%  
156 0% 0%  
157 0% 0%  
158 0% 0%  
159 0% 0% Last Result

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
111 0% 100%  
112 0.1% 99.9%  
113 0.1% 99.8%  
114 0.1% 99.7%  
115 0.5% 99.6%  
116 2% 99.1%  
117 1.5% 97%  
118 2% 95%  
119 3% 94%  
120 9% 90%  
121 16% 82% Median
122 3% 66%  
123 1.3% 63%  
124 5% 62%  
125 3% 56%  
126 5% 53%  
127 2% 48%  
128 4% 46%  
129 7% 43%  
130 2% 36%  
131 2% 33%  
132 7% 31%  
133 3% 24%  
134 5% 21%  
135 3% 16%  
136 2% 13%  
137 0.9% 11%  
138 2% 10%  
139 0.5% 8%  
140 0.8% 8%  
141 3% 7%  
142 0.3% 4%  
143 1.1% 3%  
144 2% 2%  
145 0.3% 0.7%  
146 0.1% 0.5%  
147 0.1% 0.3%  
148 0% 0.2%  
149 0.1% 0.2%  
150 0% 0%  
151 0% 0%  
152 0% 0%  
153 0% 0%  
154 0% 0%  
155 0% 0%  
156 0% 0%  
157 0% 0%  
158 0% 0%  
159 0% 0% Last Result

Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
109 0.1% 100%  
110 0% 99.9%  
111 0.1% 99.8%  
112 0.4% 99.8%  
113 0.1% 99.4%  
114 2% 99.3%  
115 0.2% 97%  
116 3% 97%  
117 0.5% 95%  
118 0.4% 94%  
119 1.3% 94%  
120 0.6% 92%  
121 2% 92%  
122 1.4% 90%  
123 0.8% 89%  
124 3% 88%  
125 4% 85% Last Result
126 5% 81%  
127 3% 76%  
128 9% 73%  
129 3% 64%  
130 4% 60%  
131 4% 57%  
132 3% 52%  
133 8% 49%  
134 4% 41% Median
135 6% 37%  
136 3% 31%  
137 4% 27%  
138 16% 24%  
139 3% 8%  
140 1.0% 5%  
141 3% 4%  
142 0.2% 1.0%  
143 0.2% 0.8%  
144 0.2% 0.6%  
145 0.1% 0.4%  
146 0.1% 0.3%  
147 0.1% 0.2%  
148 0% 0.1%  
149 0.1% 0.1%  
150 0% 0%  

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
107 0.1% 100%  
108 0% 99.9%  
109 0.1% 99.9%  
110 0.4% 99.8%  
111 0.3% 99.4%  
112 2% 99.2%  
113 0.8% 97%  
114 2% 96%  
115 4% 95%  
116 4% 91%  
117 6% 87%  
118 10% 81%  
119 4% 72%  
120 12% 67%  
121 17% 56% Median
122 4% 39%  
123 3% 35%  
124 7% 32%  
125 3% 25%  
126 6% 21%  
127 3% 15%  
128 3% 12%  
129 6% 10%  
130 0.5% 4%  
131 1.0% 3%  
132 0.8% 2%  
133 0.2% 1.1%  
134 0.3% 0.9% Last Result
135 0.1% 0.6%  
136 0.2% 0.5%  
137 0.1% 0.3%  
138 0.2% 0.2%  
139 0% 0.1%  
140 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
103 0.1% 100%  
104 0.2% 99.9%  
105 0.3% 99.6%  
106 0.2% 99.4% Last Result
107 0.5% 99.2%  
108 1.0% 98.7%  
109 4% 98%  
110 2% 94%  
111 8% 92%  
112 4% 84%  
113 6% 80%  
114 5% 74%  
115 4% 69%  
116 12% 65%  
117 2% 53%  
118 6% 51% Median
119 7% 45%  
120 11% 38%  
121 2% 27%  
122 10% 25%  
123 4% 14%  
124 3% 10%  
125 0.6% 7%  
126 4% 7%  
127 0.3% 3%  
128 0.6% 2%  
129 0.3% 2%  
130 0.6% 1.5%  
131 0.2% 0.9%  
132 0.4% 0.7%  
133 0.1% 0.2%  
134 0% 0.1%  
135 0% 0.1%  
136 0% 0.1%  
137 0.1% 0.1%  
138 0% 0%  

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Miljöpartiet de gröna

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
82 0.1% 100%  
83 0.1% 99.8%  
84 0.6% 99.8%  
85 0.2% 99.1%  
86 3% 98.9%  
87 0.9% 96%  
88 2% 95%  
89 9% 93%  
90 4% 84%  
91 19% 80% Median
92 3% 60%  
93 2% 57%  
94 4% 55%  
95 2% 51%  
96 5% 49%  
97 3% 44%  
98 4% 42%  
99 3% 37%  
100 2% 35%  
101 3% 33%  
102 3% 31%  
103 4% 28%  
104 5% 24%  
105 5% 19%  
106 2% 14%  
107 2% 12%  
108 2% 10%  
109 3% 8%  
110 1.1% 5%  
111 0.9% 4%  
112 3% 3%  
113 0.4% 1.0%  
114 0.1% 0.6%  
115 0.2% 0.5%  
116 0.1% 0.3%  
117 0.1% 0.2%  
118 0% 0.1%  
119 0.1% 0.1%  
120 0% 0%  
121 0% 0%  
122 0% 0%  
123 0% 0%  
124 0% 0%  
125 0% 0%  
126 0% 0%  
127 0% 0%  
128 0% 0%  
129 0% 0%  
130 0% 0%  
131 0% 0%  
132 0% 0%  
133 0% 0%  
134 0% 0%  
135 0% 0%  
136 0% 0%  
137 0% 0%  
138 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations