Opinion Poll by Novus for SVT, 14 May–6 June 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti 31.0% 23.8% 23.0–24.6% 22.8–24.9% 22.6–25.1% 22.2–25.5%
Sverigedemokraterna 12.9% 21.9% 21.1–22.7% 20.9–22.9% 20.7–23.1% 20.4–23.5%
Moderata samlingspartiet 23.3% 21.1% 20.3–21.9% 20.1–22.1% 20.0–22.3% 19.6–22.7%
Vänsterpartiet 5.7% 9.1% 8.6–9.7% 8.4–9.8% 8.3–10.0% 8.1–10.3%
Centerpartiet 6.1% 8.9% 8.4–9.5% 8.2–9.6% 8.1–9.8% 7.9–10.0%
Liberalerna 5.4% 4.6% 4.2–5.0% 4.1–5.1% 4.0–5.2% 3.9–5.5%
Miljöpartiet de gröna 6.9% 4.5% 4.1–4.9% 4.0–5.0% 3.9–5.1% 3.7–5.3%
Kristdemokraterna 4.6% 2.9% 2.6–3.2% 2.5–3.3% 2.4–3.4% 2.3–3.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti 113 89 85–92 85–93 84–94 82–97
Sverigedemokraterna 49 81 79–85 78–86 77–87 76–89
Moderata samlingspartiet 84 78 76–82 75–83 74–84 73–86
Vänsterpartiet 21 34 32–36 31–37 31–37 30–38
Centerpartiet 22 33 31–35 31–36 30–36 29–38
Liberalerna 19 17 16–19 15–19 15–19 0–20
Miljöpartiet de gröna 25 17 15–18 15–19 0–19 0–20
Kristdemokraterna 16 0 0 0 0 0

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
81 0.1% 100%  
82 0.4% 99.9%  
83 1.0% 99.4%  
84 3% 98%  
85 8% 96%  
86 10% 88%  
87 12% 78%  
88 14% 66%  
89 16% 52% Median
90 14% 36%  
91 9% 22%  
92 6% 13%  
93 5% 7%  
94 0.9% 3%  
95 0.7% 2%  
96 0.5% 1.0%  
97 0.3% 0.5%  
98 0.1% 0.2%  
99 0.1% 0.1%  
100 0% 0%  
101 0% 0%  
102 0% 0%  
103 0% 0%  
104 0% 0%  
105 0% 0%  
106 0% 0%  
107 0% 0%  
108 0% 0%  
109 0% 0%  
110 0% 0%  
111 0% 0%  
112 0% 0%  
113 0% 0% Last Result

Sverigedemokraterna

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sverigedemokraterna page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0% 100% Last Result
50 0% 100%  
51 0% 100%  
52 0% 100%  
53 0% 100%  
54 0% 100%  
55 0% 100%  
56 0% 100%  
57 0% 100%  
58 0% 100%  
59 0% 100%  
60 0% 100%  
61 0% 100%  
62 0% 100%  
63 0% 100%  
64 0% 100%  
65 0% 100%  
66 0% 100%  
67 0% 100%  
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0.1% 100%  
75 0.3% 99.9%  
76 1.0% 99.6%  
77 2% 98.6%  
78 5% 96%  
79 7% 91%  
80 18% 84%  
81 17% 66% Median
82 17% 50%  
83 15% 32%  
84 7% 17%  
85 5% 10%  
86 3% 6%  
87 2% 3%  
88 0.6% 1.1%  
89 0.2% 0.5%  
90 0.2% 0.3%  
91 0.1% 0.1%  
92 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Moderata samlingspartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0.1% 100%  
72 0.2% 99.9%  
73 0.7% 99.7%  
74 3% 99.0%  
75 5% 96%  
76 11% 91%  
77 13% 79%  
78 17% 66% Median
79 16% 49%  
80 13% 33%  
81 9% 20%  
82 6% 11%  
83 3% 6%  
84 2% 3% Last Result
85 0.7% 1.3%  
86 0.3% 0.5%  
87 0.2% 0.2%  
88 0% 0.1%  
89 0% 0%  

Vänsterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vänsterpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0% 100% Last Result
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0% 100%  
28 0% 100%  
29 0.2% 100%  
30 1.1% 99.8%  
31 4% 98.7%  
32 11% 94%  
33 19% 83%  
34 30% 64% Median
35 17% 34%  
36 12% 18%  
37 4% 5%  
38 1.2% 2%  
39 0.3% 0.4%  
40 0.1% 0.1%  
41 0% 0%  

Centerpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Centerpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0% 100% Last Result
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0% 100%  
28 0.1% 100%  
29 0.7% 99.9%  
30 3% 99.2%  
31 8% 96%  
32 26% 88%  
33 29% 62% Median
34 17% 33%  
35 10% 16%  
36 4% 6%  
37 1.4% 2%  
38 0.4% 0.5%  
39 0.1% 0.1%  
40 0% 0%  

Liberalerna

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberalerna page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 2% 100%  
1 0% 98%  
2 0% 98%  
3 0% 98%  
4 0% 98%  
5 0% 98%  
6 0% 98%  
7 0% 98%  
8 0% 98%  
9 0% 98%  
10 0% 98%  
11 0% 98%  
12 0% 98%  
13 0% 98%  
14 0% 98%  
15 4% 98%  
16 17% 94%  
17 38% 77% Median
18 25% 39%  
19 12% 14% Last Result
20 2% 2%  
21 0.2% 0.3%  
22 0% 0%  

Miljöpartiet de gröna

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljöpartiet de gröna page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 3% 100%  
1 0% 97%  
2 0% 97%  
3 0% 97%  
4 0% 97%  
5 0% 97%  
6 0% 97%  
7 0% 97%  
8 0% 97%  
9 0% 97%  
10 0% 97%  
11 0% 97%  
12 0% 97%  
13 0% 97%  
14 0% 97%  
15 10% 97%  
16 30% 87%  
17 35% 57% Median
18 15% 21%  
19 5% 6%  
20 1.0% 1.1%  
21 0.1% 0.1%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0% Last Result

Kristdemokraterna

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristdemokraterna page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Median
1 0% 0%  
2 0% 0%  
3 0% 0%  
4 0% 0%  
5 0% 0%  
6 0% 0%  
7 0% 0%  
8 0% 0%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0%  
13 0% 0%  
14 0% 0%  
15 0% 0%  
16 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna 159 139 0% 135–143 133–144 130–145 125–147
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna – Kristdemokraterna 141 129 0% 125–132 124–134 123–135 115–138
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna 125 129 0% 125–132 124–134 123–135 115–138
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet 134 122 0% 119–126 118–127 117–129 116–133
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna 122 111 0% 108–115 108–117 107–118 105–121
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet 106 111 0% 108–115 108–117 107–118 105–121
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Miljöpartiet de gröna 138 105 0% 101–109 100–110 94–110 91–112

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
123 0.1% 100%  
124 0.1% 99.9%  
125 0.3% 99.8%  
126 0.3% 99.5%  
127 0.6% 99.2%  
128 0.5% 98.6%  
129 0.5% 98%  
130 0.3% 98%  
131 0.5% 97%  
132 0.5% 97%  
133 1.4% 96%  
134 3% 95%  
135 3% 92%  
136 7% 89%  
137 11% 81%  
138 13% 70%  
139 13% 57%  
140 18% 44% Median
141 8% 27%  
142 8% 19%  
143 5% 11%  
144 4% 6%  
145 1.4% 3%  
146 0.6% 1.4%  
147 0.4% 0.8%  
148 0.1% 0.4%  
149 0.1% 0.3%  
150 0.1% 0.2%  
151 0.1% 0.1%  
152 0% 0%  
153 0% 0%  
154 0% 0%  
155 0% 0%  
156 0% 0%  
157 0% 0%  
158 0% 0%  
159 0% 0% Last Result

Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna – Kristdemokraterna

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
112 0% 100%  
113 0.1% 99.9%  
114 0.1% 99.9%  
115 0.3% 99.8%  
116 0.1% 99.5%  
117 0.2% 99.4%  
118 0.2% 99.2%  
119 0.2% 99.0%  
120 0.2% 98.8%  
121 0.3% 98.6%  
122 0.5% 98%  
123 2% 98%  
124 2% 96%  
125 8% 94%  
126 7% 86%  
127 18% 80%  
128 9% 61% Median
129 15% 53%  
130 11% 37%  
131 11% 26%  
132 7% 16%  
133 4% 9%  
134 2% 5%  
135 1.4% 3%  
136 0.8% 2%  
137 0.6% 1.2%  
138 0.3% 0.6%  
139 0.1% 0.3%  
140 0.1% 0.2%  
141 0% 0.1% Last Result
142 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
112 0% 100%  
113 0.1% 99.9%  
114 0.1% 99.9%  
115 0.3% 99.8%  
116 0.1% 99.5%  
117 0.2% 99.4%  
118 0.2% 99.2%  
119 0.2% 99.0%  
120 0.2% 98.8%  
121 0.3% 98.6%  
122 0.5% 98%  
123 2% 98%  
124 2% 96%  
125 8% 94% Last Result
126 7% 86%  
127 18% 80%  
128 9% 61% Median
129 15% 53%  
130 11% 37%  
131 11% 26%  
132 7% 16%  
133 4% 9%  
134 2% 5%  
135 1.4% 3%  
136 0.8% 2%  
137 0.6% 1.2%  
138 0.3% 0.6%  
139 0.1% 0.3%  
140 0.1% 0.2%  
141 0% 0.1%  
142 0% 0%  

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
114 0.1% 100%  
115 0.3% 99.9%  
116 0.9% 99.6%  
117 2% 98.7%  
118 3% 97%  
119 6% 93%  
120 12% 88%  
121 12% 76%  
122 15% 64%  
123 10% 48% Median
124 16% 39%  
125 8% 23%  
126 5% 14%  
127 4% 9%  
128 2% 5%  
129 1.0% 3%  
130 0.5% 2%  
131 0.4% 1.2%  
132 0.3% 0.8%  
133 0.4% 0.6%  
134 0.1% 0.2% Last Result
135 0% 0.1%  
136 0% 0.1%  
137 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
103 0% 100%  
104 0.1% 99.9%  
105 0.4% 99.8%  
106 1.0% 99.4%  
107 2% 98%  
108 8% 96%  
109 9% 88%  
110 16% 79%  
111 19% 62% Median
112 9% 44%  
113 13% 35%  
114 9% 22%  
115 4% 13%  
116 4% 9%  
117 2% 5%  
118 1.1% 3%  
119 0.9% 2%  
120 0.3% 0.9%  
121 0.3% 0.6%  
122 0.2% 0.3% Last Result
123 0.1% 0.1%  
124 0% 0.1%  
125 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
103 0% 100%  
104 0.1% 99.9%  
105 0.4% 99.8%  
106 1.0% 99.4% Last Result
107 2% 98%  
108 8% 96%  
109 9% 88%  
110 16% 79%  
111 19% 62% Median
112 9% 44%  
113 13% 35%  
114 9% 22%  
115 4% 13%  
116 4% 9%  
117 2% 5%  
118 1.1% 3%  
119 0.9% 2%  
120 0.3% 0.9%  
121 0.3% 0.6%  
122 0.2% 0.3%  
123 0.1% 0.1%  
124 0% 0%  

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Miljöpartiet de gröna

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
87 0% 100%  
88 0.1% 99.9%  
89 0.1% 99.9%  
90 0.2% 99.8%  
91 0.8% 99.7%  
92 0.7% 98.9%  
93 0.5% 98%  
94 0.3% 98%  
95 0.2% 97%  
96 0.4% 97%  
97 0.3% 97%  
98 0.3% 97%  
99 1.3% 96%  
100 1.0% 95%  
101 6% 94%  
102 6% 88%  
103 9% 82%  
104 13% 73%  
105 15% 60%  
106 19% 45% Median
107 10% 26%  
108 5% 16%  
109 5% 11%  
110 4% 6%  
111 1.0% 2%  
112 0.7% 1.1%  
113 0.2% 0.4%  
114 0.1% 0.2%  
115 0% 0.1%  
116 0% 0.1%  
117 0% 0%  
118 0% 0%  
119 0% 0%  
120 0% 0%  
121 0% 0%  
122 0% 0%  
123 0% 0%  
124 0% 0%  
125 0% 0%  
126 0% 0%  
127 0% 0%  
128 0% 0%  
129 0% 0%  
130 0% 0%  
131 0% 0%  
132 0% 0%  
133 0% 0%  
134 0% 0%  
135 0% 0%  
136 0% 0%  
137 0% 0%  
138 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations