Opinion Poll by Sifo for Svenska Dagbladet, 4–14 June 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti 31.0% 26.2% 25.0–27.4% 24.7–27.8% 24.4–28.1% 23.8–28.7%
Moderata samlingspartiet 23.3% 20.7% 19.6–21.8% 19.3–22.2% 19.0–22.5% 18.5–23.0%
Sverigedemokraterna 12.9% 18.6% 17.5–19.7% 17.3–20.0% 17.0–20.3% 16.5–20.8%
Centerpartiet 6.1% 10.8% 10.0–11.7% 9.8–12.0% 9.6–12.2% 9.2–12.7%
Vänsterpartiet 5.7% 9.8% 9.0–10.7% 8.8–10.9% 8.6–11.1% 8.3–11.6%
Liberalerna 5.4% 4.9% 4.4–5.6% 4.2–5.7% 4.1–5.9% 3.8–6.2%
Miljöpartiet de gröna 6.9% 4.0% 3.5–4.6% 3.4–4.8% 3.3–5.0% 3.1–5.3%
Kristdemokraterna 4.6% 2.4% 2.1–2.9% 2.0–3.0% 1.9–3.2% 1.7–3.4%
Feministiskt initiativ 3.1% 1.5% 1.2–1.9% 1.1–2.0% 1.1–2.1% 0.9–2.3%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti 113 97 92–103 91–105 91–107 88–108
Moderata samlingspartiet 84 77 73–82 72–84 71–85 69–87
Sverigedemokraterna 49 69 65–74 64–75 63–76 61–78
Centerpartiet 22 40 37–44 36–45 36–46 34–48
Vänsterpartiet 21 36 34–41 33–41 32–42 31–44
Liberalerna 19 19 16–21 16–21 15–22 0–23
Miljöpartiet de gröna 25 15 0–17 0–18 0–18 0–19
Kristdemokraterna 16 0 0 0 0 0
Feministiskt initiativ 0 0 0 0 0 0

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
86 0.1% 100%  
87 0.3% 99.9%  
88 0.4% 99.6%  
89 0.9% 99.2%  
90 0.7% 98%  
91 4% 98%  
92 4% 93%  
93 4% 89%  
94 6% 85%  
95 18% 79%  
96 6% 61%  
97 9% 56% Median
98 10% 47%  
99 5% 36%  
100 6% 31%  
101 6% 24%  
102 3% 19%  
103 8% 15%  
104 3% 8%  
105 2% 5%  
106 0.9% 4%  
107 2% 3%  
108 0.3% 0.7%  
109 0.3% 0.5%  
110 0.1% 0.2%  
111 0% 0.1%  
112 0% 0.1%  
113 0% 0.1% Last Result
114 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Moderata samlingspartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
66 0.1% 100%  
67 0.1% 99.9%  
68 0.3% 99.8%  
69 0.7% 99.5%  
70 1.0% 98.8%  
71 2% 98%  
72 4% 96%  
73 4% 92%  
74 10% 87%  
75 9% 78%  
76 16% 69%  
77 11% 52% Median
78 5% 42%  
79 5% 37%  
80 8% 32%  
81 6% 24%  
82 10% 18%  
83 2% 7%  
84 3% 5% Last Result
85 1.3% 3%  
86 0.4% 1.3%  
87 0.4% 0.9%  
88 0.3% 0.5%  
89 0.2% 0.2%  
90 0% 0.1%  
91 0% 0%  

Sverigedemokraterna

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sverigedemokraterna page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0% 100% Last Result
50 0% 100%  
51 0% 100%  
52 0% 100%  
53 0% 100%  
54 0% 100%  
55 0% 100%  
56 0% 100%  
57 0% 100%  
58 0.1% 100%  
59 0.1% 99.9%  
60 0.3% 99.8%  
61 0.3% 99.5%  
62 0.5% 99.2%  
63 2% 98.7%  
64 6% 97%  
65 6% 90%  
66 18% 85%  
67 5% 67%  
68 8% 62%  
69 4% 54% Median
70 13% 49%  
71 8% 36%  
72 9% 28%  
73 4% 19%  
74 9% 15%  
75 2% 6%  
76 2% 4%  
77 1.0% 2%  
78 0.6% 1.1%  
79 0.3% 0.5%  
80 0.1% 0.2%  
81 0% 0.1%  
82 0% 0.1%  
83 0% 0%  

Centerpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Centerpartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0% 100% Last Result
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0% 100%  
28 0% 100%  
29 0% 100%  
30 0% 100%  
31 0% 100%  
32 0% 100%  
33 0.1% 100%  
34 0.7% 99.8%  
35 0.9% 99.1%  
36 4% 98%  
37 5% 95%  
38 11% 89%  
39 10% 78%  
40 28% 68% Median
41 8% 40%  
42 8% 32%  
43 10% 24%  
44 6% 14%  
45 3% 8%  
46 3% 5%  
47 0.9% 2%  
48 0.4% 0.7%  
49 0.2% 0.3%  
50 0% 0.1%  
51 0% 0%  

Vänsterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vänsterpartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0% 100% Last Result
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0% 100%  
28 0% 100%  
29 0.1% 100%  
30 0.3% 99.9%  
31 0.9% 99.6%  
32 3% 98.7%  
33 4% 96%  
34 11% 92%  
35 11% 82%  
36 26% 71% Median
37 10% 45%  
38 16% 35%  
39 4% 19%  
40 5% 15%  
41 7% 11%  
42 2% 4%  
43 1.1% 2%  
44 0.3% 0.8%  
45 0.4% 0.5%  
46 0% 0%  

Liberalerna

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberalerna page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 2% 100%  
1 0% 98%  
2 0% 98%  
3 0% 98%  
4 0% 98%  
5 0% 98%  
6 0% 98%  
7 0% 98%  
8 0% 98%  
9 0% 98%  
10 0% 98%  
11 0% 98%  
12 0% 98%  
13 0% 98%  
14 0% 98%  
15 1.3% 98%  
16 9% 97%  
17 16% 88%  
18 19% 72%  
19 15% 53% Last Result, Median
20 21% 37%  
21 11% 16%  
22 3% 5%  
23 2% 2%  
24 0.3% 0.5%  
25 0.1% 0.1%  
26 0% 0%  

Miljöpartiet de gröna

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljöpartiet de gröna page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 42% 100%  
1 0% 58%  
2 0% 58%  
3 0% 58%  
4 0% 58%  
5 0% 58%  
6 0% 58%  
7 0% 58%  
8 0% 58%  
9 0% 58%  
10 0% 58%  
11 0% 58%  
12 0% 58%  
13 0% 58%  
14 0% 58%  
15 19% 58% Median
16 25% 39%  
17 5% 14%  
18 7% 9%  
19 1.0% 1.4%  
20 0.3% 0.3%  
21 0% 0%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0% Last Result

Kristdemokraterna

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristdemokraterna page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Median
1 0% 0%  
2 0% 0%  
3 0% 0%  
4 0% 0%  
5 0% 0%  
6 0% 0%  
7 0% 0%  
8 0% 0%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0%  
13 0% 0%  
14 0% 0%  
15 0% 0%  
16 0% 0% Last Result

Feministiskt initiativ

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Feministiskt initiativ page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet 197 175 51% 168–181 167–184 165–186 162–190
Moderata samlingspartiet – Sverigedemokraterna 133 146 0% 140–154 138–155 138–156 134–161
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna – Feministiskt initiativ 159 144 0% 135–152 133–153 131–155 130–158
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna 159 144 0% 135–152 133–153 131–155 130–158
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna – Kristdemokraterna 141 136 0% 130–143 128–144 127–147 120–148
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna 125 136 0% 130–143 128–144 127–147 120–148
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet 134 134 0% 128–140 126–143 126–144 123–148
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna 122 117 0% 112–124 111–126 109–127 107–129
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet 106 117 0% 112–124 111–126 109–127 107–129
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Miljöpartiet de gröna 138 108 0% 98–115 96–117 94–119 92–121

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
159 0% 100%  
160 0.1% 99.9%  
161 0.1% 99.8%  
162 0.2% 99.7%  
163 1.0% 99.5%  
164 0.7% 98.5%  
165 1.5% 98%  
166 1.3% 96%  
167 2% 95%  
168 5% 93%  
169 2% 88%  
170 6% 86%  
171 15% 80%  
172 3% 66%  
173 4% 63%  
174 8% 59% Median
175 6% 51% Majority
176 5% 45%  
177 5% 40%  
178 9% 35%  
179 3% 26%  
180 10% 23%  
181 2% 12%  
182 3% 10%  
183 0.6% 7%  
184 2% 6%  
185 1.3% 5%  
186 1.1% 3%  
187 0.9% 2%  
188 0.4% 1.5%  
189 0.3% 1.1%  
190 0.5% 0.8%  
191 0.2% 0.4%  
192 0% 0.2%  
193 0.1% 0.2%  
194 0% 0.1%  
195 0% 0.1%  
196 0% 0.1%  
197 0% 0.1% Last Result
198 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet – Sverigedemokraterna

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
132 0.1% 100%  
133 0.3% 99.9% Last Result
134 0.2% 99.6%  
135 0.1% 99.3%  
136 0.4% 99.2%  
137 1.1% 98.8%  
138 5% 98%  
139 2% 93%  
140 2% 91%  
141 5% 88%  
142 14% 83%  
143 4% 70%  
144 7% 66%  
145 3% 58%  
146 5% 55% Median
147 4% 50%  
148 5% 46%  
149 10% 40%  
150 3% 30%  
151 7% 27%  
152 8% 20%  
153 2% 12%  
154 4% 11%  
155 2% 7%  
156 2% 5%  
157 1.2% 2%  
158 0.2% 1.3%  
159 0.2% 1.0%  
160 0.3% 0.8%  
161 0.1% 0.5%  
162 0.2% 0.4%  
163 0% 0.2%  
164 0.1% 0.2%  
165 0% 0.1%  
166 0% 0%  

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna – Feministiskt initiativ

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
127 0.1% 100%  
128 0% 99.9%  
129 0.1% 99.8%  
130 0.4% 99.7%  
131 2% 99.3%  
132 0.8% 97%  
133 1.3% 96%  
134 1.2% 95%  
135 4% 94%  
136 8% 89%  
137 4% 82%  
138 3% 78%  
139 6% 75%  
140 3% 69%  
141 6% 66%  
142 3% 61%  
143 4% 57%  
144 4% 53%  
145 3% 49%  
146 5% 46%  
147 16% 41%  
148 2% 25% Median
149 5% 23%  
150 3% 18%  
151 4% 15%  
152 3% 10%  
153 4% 8%  
154 0.7% 4%  
155 1.1% 3%  
156 0.6% 2%  
157 0.6% 1.3%  
158 0.2% 0.6%  
159 0.2% 0.4% Last Result
160 0.1% 0.2%  
161 0% 0.1%  
162 0% 0.1%  
163 0% 0%  

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
127 0.1% 100%  
128 0% 99.9%  
129 0.1% 99.8%  
130 0.4% 99.7%  
131 2% 99.3%  
132 0.8% 97%  
133 1.3% 96%  
134 1.2% 95%  
135 4% 94%  
136 8% 89%  
137 4% 82%  
138 3% 78%  
139 6% 75%  
140 3% 69%  
141 6% 66%  
142 3% 61%  
143 4% 57%  
144 4% 53%  
145 3% 49%  
146 5% 46%  
147 16% 41%  
148 2% 25% Median
149 5% 23%  
150 3% 18%  
151 4% 15%  
152 3% 10%  
153 4% 8%  
154 0.7% 4%  
155 1.1% 3%  
156 0.6% 2%  
157 0.6% 1.3%  
158 0.2% 0.6%  
159 0.2% 0.4% Last Result
160 0.1% 0.2%  
161 0% 0.1%  
162 0% 0.1%  
163 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna – Kristdemokraterna

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
116 0% 100%  
117 0.1% 99.9%  
118 0.1% 99.9%  
119 0% 99.8%  
120 0.5% 99.7%  
121 0.2% 99.2%  
122 0.1% 99.0%  
123 0.2% 99.0%  
124 0.3% 98.8%  
125 0.4% 98%  
126 0.2% 98%  
127 2% 98%  
128 2% 96%  
129 2% 95%  
130 5% 92%  
131 5% 87%  
132 4% 82%  
133 3% 78%  
134 10% 75%  
135 4% 66%  
136 24% 62% Median
137 4% 37%  
138 5% 34%  
139 4% 29%  
140 2% 25%  
141 3% 24% Last Result
142 4% 21%  
143 10% 17%  
144 3% 7%  
145 0.8% 5%  
146 1.1% 4%  
147 2% 3%  
148 0.2% 0.6%  
149 0.3% 0.5%  
150 0.2% 0.2%  
151 0% 0.1%  
152 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
116 0% 100%  
117 0.1% 99.9%  
118 0.1% 99.9%  
119 0% 99.8%  
120 0.5% 99.7%  
121 0.2% 99.2%  
122 0.1% 99.0%  
123 0.2% 99.0%  
124 0.3% 98.8%  
125 0.4% 98% Last Result
126 0.2% 98%  
127 2% 98%  
128 2% 96%  
129 2% 95%  
130 5% 92%  
131 5% 87%  
132 4% 82%  
133 3% 78%  
134 10% 75%  
135 4% 66%  
136 24% 62% Median
137 4% 37%  
138 5% 34%  
139 4% 29%  
140 2% 25%  
141 3% 24%  
142 4% 21%  
143 10% 17%  
144 3% 7%  
145 0.8% 5%  
146 1.1% 4%  
147 2% 3%  
148 0.2% 0.6%  
149 0.3% 0.5%  
150 0.2% 0.2%  
151 0% 0.1%  
152 0% 0%  

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
121 0.2% 100%  
122 0.2% 99.8%  
123 0.2% 99.6%  
124 0.3% 99.3%  
125 0.6% 99.0%  
126 4% 98%  
127 4% 95%  
128 2% 90%  
129 2% 88%  
130 4% 86%  
131 17% 82%  
132 6% 65%  
133 6% 59% Median
134 6% 53% Last Result
135 6% 47%  
136 9% 41%  
137 7% 32%  
138 5% 24%  
139 6% 19%  
140 3% 13%  
141 2% 10%  
142 2% 7%  
143 2% 6%  
144 2% 4%  
145 0.9% 2%  
146 0.4% 1.5%  
147 0.2% 1.1%  
148 0.4% 0.8%  
149 0.3% 0.5%  
150 0.1% 0.2%  
151 0.1% 0.1%  
152 0% 0.1%  
153 0% 0.1%  
154 0% 0.1%  
155 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
104 0% 100%  
105 0.1% 99.9%  
106 0.2% 99.9%  
107 0.3% 99.6%  
108 0.8% 99.4%  
109 1.2% 98.6%  
110 1.4% 97%  
111 3% 96%  
112 5% 93%  
113 4% 88%  
114 4% 84%  
115 8% 79%  
116 16% 72%  
117 6% 56% Median
118 7% 49%  
119 8% 42%  
120 4% 33%  
121 4% 29%  
122 9% 25% Last Result
123 1.2% 16%  
124 7% 15%  
125 0.6% 8%  
126 4% 7%  
127 1.1% 3%  
128 1.0% 2%  
129 0.5% 0.9%  
130 0.2% 0.5%  
131 0.1% 0.3%  
132 0.1% 0.2%  
133 0% 0.1%  
134 0.1% 0.1%  
135 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
104 0% 100%  
105 0.1% 99.9%  
106 0.2% 99.9% Last Result
107 0.3% 99.6%  
108 0.8% 99.4%  
109 1.2% 98.6%  
110 1.4% 97%  
111 3% 96%  
112 5% 93%  
113 4% 88%  
114 4% 84%  
115 8% 79%  
116 16% 72%  
117 6% 56% Median
118 7% 49%  
119 8% 42%  
120 4% 33%  
121 4% 29%  
122 9% 25%  
123 1.2% 16%  
124 7% 15%  
125 0.6% 8%  
126 4% 7%  
127 1.1% 3%  
128 1.0% 2%  
129 0.5% 0.9%  
130 0.2% 0.4%  
131 0.1% 0.3%  
132 0.1% 0.2%  
133 0% 0.1%  
134 0.1% 0.1%  
135 0% 0%  

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Miljöpartiet de gröna

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
90 0.1% 100%  
91 0.1% 99.9%  
92 0.3% 99.8%  
93 0.4% 99.5%  
94 2% 99.1%  
95 1.2% 97%  
96 3% 96%  
97 3% 93%  
98 8% 90%  
99 4% 82%  
100 2% 79%  
101 4% 77%  
102 2% 73%  
103 7% 71%  
104 1.2% 63%  
105 2% 62%  
106 4% 60%  
107 4% 56%  
108 3% 52%  
109 4% 49%  
110 5% 44%  
111 15% 39%  
112 3% 25% Median
113 4% 22%  
114 2% 18%  
115 8% 16%  
116 2% 8%  
117 1.2% 6%  
118 0.9% 4%  
119 2% 4%  
120 0.5% 2%  
121 0.8% 1.0%  
122 0.1% 0.2%  
123 0% 0.1%  
124 0% 0.1%  
125 0% 0%  
126 0% 0%  
127 0% 0%  
128 0% 0%  
129 0% 0%  
130 0% 0%  
131 0% 0%  
132 0% 0%  
133 0% 0%  
134 0% 0%  
135 0% 0%  
136 0% 0%  
137 0% 0%  
138 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations