Opinion Poll by Ipsos for Dagens Nyheter, 7–18 June 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti 31.0% 24.0% 22.7–25.3% 22.4–25.7% 22.1–26.0% 21.5–26.7%
Sverigedemokraterna 12.9% 20.0% 18.8–21.2% 18.5–21.6% 18.2–21.9% 17.7–22.5%
Moderata samlingspartiet 23.3% 19.0% 17.8–20.2% 17.5–20.6% 17.3–20.9% 16.7–21.5%
Centerpartiet 6.1% 10.0% 9.2–11.0% 8.9–11.3% 8.7–11.5% 8.3–12.0%
Vänsterpartiet 5.7% 9.0% 8.2–9.9% 7.9–10.2% 7.7–10.4% 7.4–10.9%
Liberalerna 5.4% 6.0% 5.3–6.8% 5.1–7.0% 5.0–7.2% 4.7–7.6%
Miljöpartiet de gröna 6.9% 4.0% 3.4–4.6% 3.3–4.8% 3.2–5.0% 2.9–5.3%
Kristdemokraterna 4.6% 3.0% 2.5–3.6% 2.4–3.7% 2.3–3.9% 2.1–4.2%
Feministiskt initiativ 3.1% 2.0% 1.6–2.5% 1.5–2.6% 1.4–2.8% 1.3–3.0%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti 113 92 86–99 84–102 83–103 81–105
Sverigedemokraterna 49 77 72–83 70–84 69–86 66–90
Moderata samlingspartiet 84 74 68–78 67–80 66–82 63–85
Centerpartiet 22 39 34–43 33–44 33–45 31–47
Vänsterpartiet 21 35 31–39 30–40 29–41 28–43
Liberalerna 19 23 20–27 19–28 18–29 17–31
Miljöpartiet de gröna 25 15 0–18 0–18 0–19 0–20
Kristdemokraterna 16 0 0 0 0 0–16
Feministiskt initiativ 0 0 0 0 0 0

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
77 0.1% 100%  
78 0% 99.9%  
79 0.1% 99.9%  
80 0.2% 99.8%  
81 0.2% 99.7%  
82 0.8% 99.4%  
83 2% 98.6%  
84 2% 97%  
85 3% 95%  
86 3% 91%  
87 3% 89%  
88 9% 86%  
89 10% 77%  
90 7% 66%  
91 8% 59%  
92 11% 52% Median
93 6% 41%  
94 10% 36%  
95 4% 26%  
96 3% 22%  
97 2% 19%  
98 4% 17%  
99 4% 14%  
100 3% 9%  
101 1.1% 7%  
102 1.4% 6%  
103 3% 4%  
104 1.1% 2%  
105 0.4% 0.6%  
106 0.1% 0.2%  
107 0% 0%  
108 0% 0%  
109 0% 0%  
110 0% 0%  
111 0% 0%  
112 0% 0%  
113 0% 0% Last Result

Sverigedemokraterna

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sverigedemokraterna page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0% 100% Last Result
50 0% 100%  
51 0% 100%  
52 0% 100%  
53 0% 100%  
54 0% 100%  
55 0% 100%  
56 0% 100%  
57 0% 100%  
58 0% 100%  
59 0% 100%  
60 0% 100%  
61 0% 100%  
62 0% 100%  
63 0% 100%  
64 0.1% 100%  
65 0.3% 99.9%  
66 0.1% 99.6%  
67 0.8% 99.5%  
68 0.8% 98.7%  
69 1.2% 98%  
70 3% 97%  
71 3% 93%  
72 6% 91%  
73 3% 85%  
74 9% 81%  
75 8% 72%  
76 9% 64%  
77 10% 55% Median
78 9% 44%  
79 7% 36%  
80 4% 29%  
81 6% 25%  
82 6% 19%  
83 5% 13%  
84 4% 9%  
85 1.4% 4%  
86 1.1% 3%  
87 0.3% 2%  
88 0.5% 2%  
89 0.5% 1.1%  
90 0.4% 0.6%  
91 0.1% 0.2%  
92 0% 0.1%  
93 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Moderata samlingspartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0% 100%  
61 0.1% 99.9%  
62 0.2% 99.9%  
63 0.3% 99.7%  
64 0.7% 99.4%  
65 1.0% 98.7%  
66 1.3% 98%  
67 2% 96%  
68 7% 94%  
69 9% 87%  
70 5% 79%  
71 10% 73%  
72 6% 64%  
73 7% 57%  
74 12% 50% Median
75 7% 38%  
76 7% 31%  
77 9% 24%  
78 5% 15%  
79 2% 10%  
80 3% 7%  
81 2% 5%  
82 0.9% 3%  
83 0.8% 2%  
84 0.7% 1.3% Last Result
85 0.2% 0.5%  
86 0.2% 0.4%  
87 0.2% 0.2%  
88 0% 0%  

Centerpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Centerpartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0% 100% Last Result
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0% 100%  
28 0% 100%  
29 0% 100%  
30 0.2% 100%  
31 0.4% 99.8%  
32 1.2% 99.4%  
33 4% 98%  
34 8% 94%  
35 7% 86%  
36 7% 79%  
37 12% 72%  
38 9% 60%  
39 7% 51% Median
40 11% 44%  
41 11% 32%  
42 7% 21%  
43 6% 14%  
44 4% 8%  
45 1.3% 4%  
46 1.3% 2%  
47 0.6% 1.0%  
48 0.2% 0.4%  
49 0.1% 0.2%  
50 0% 0%  

Vänsterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vänsterpartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0% 100% Last Result
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0.2% 100%  
27 0.2% 99.8%  
28 1.4% 99.5%  
29 2% 98%  
30 4% 96%  
31 7% 93%  
32 9% 86%  
33 13% 77%  
34 10% 64%  
35 10% 53% Median
36 10% 44%  
37 12% 34%  
38 9% 22%  
39 5% 13%  
40 3% 8%  
41 3% 5%  
42 1.0% 2%  
43 0.8% 1.1%  
44 0.2% 0.3%  
45 0.1% 0.1%  
46 0% 0%  

Liberalerna

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberalerna page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0% 100%  
17 0.5% 99.9%  
18 2% 99.5%  
19 4% 97% Last Result
20 9% 93%  
21 11% 84%  
22 15% 73%  
23 14% 57% Median
24 11% 43%  
25 10% 32%  
26 8% 23%  
27 7% 15%  
28 4% 8%  
29 3% 4%  
30 0.7% 1.2%  
31 0.4% 0.5%  
32 0.1% 0.1%  
33 0% 0%  

Miljöpartiet de gröna

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljöpartiet de gröna page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 50% 100%  
1 0% 50%  
2 0% 50%  
3 0% 50%  
4 0% 50%  
5 0% 50%  
6 0% 50%  
7 0% 50%  
8 0% 50%  
9 0% 50%  
10 0% 50%  
11 0% 50%  
12 0% 50%  
13 0% 50%  
14 0% 50%  
15 8% 50% Median
16 21% 43%  
17 11% 22%  
18 7% 10%  
19 2% 3%  
20 0.8% 1.0%  
21 0.2% 0.2%  
22 0.1% 0.1%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0% Last Result

Kristdemokraterna

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristdemokraterna page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 98% 100% Median
1 0% 2%  
2 0% 2%  
3 0% 2%  
4 0% 2%  
5 0% 2%  
6 0% 2%  
7 0% 2%  
8 0% 2%  
9 0% 2%  
10 0% 2%  
11 0% 2%  
12 0% 2%  
13 0% 2%  
14 0% 2%  
15 0.8% 2%  
16 0.7% 0.9% Last Result
17 0.1% 0.1%  
18 0% 0%  

Feministiskt initiativ

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Feministiskt initiativ page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet 197 165 7% 158–174 156–175 154–177 151–180
Sverigedemokraterna – Moderata samlingspartiet 133 151 0% 143–158 141–161 139–162 136–166
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna – Feministiskt initiativ 159 136 0% 126–144 124–147 123–148 119–151
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna 159 136 0% 126–144 124–147 123–148 119–151
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna – Kristdemokraterna 141 135 0% 128–146 125–146 124–147 122–152
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna 125 135 0% 127–146 125–146 124–146 122–152
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet 134 127 0% 120–135 118–137 116–139 113–142
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna 122 112 0% 106–119 104–121 102–123 100–128
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet 106 112 0% 106–119 103–121 102–122 100–126
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Miljöpartiet de gröna 138 101 0% 90–111 88–113 88–116 86–116

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
145 0% 100%  
146 0% 99.9%  
147 0% 99.9%  
148 0.1% 99.9%  
149 0.1% 99.8%  
150 0.2% 99.7%  
151 0.3% 99.6%  
152 0.5% 99.3%  
153 0.7% 98.8%  
154 0.8% 98%  
155 1.4% 97%  
156 1.4% 96%  
157 2% 94%  
158 3% 92%  
159 3% 89%  
160 6% 86%  
161 6% 80%  
162 7% 74%  
163 7% 67%  
164 5% 60%  
165 6% 55%  
166 7% 49% Median
167 6% 41%  
168 7% 36%  
169 5% 29%  
170 4% 24%  
171 4% 20%  
172 3% 16%  
173 2% 13%  
174 3% 11%  
175 3% 7% Majority
176 0.8% 4%  
177 1.1% 3%  
178 0.5% 2%  
179 0.7% 2%  
180 0.7% 1.2%  
181 0.2% 0.4%  
182 0.1% 0.2%  
183 0.1% 0.1%  
184 0% 0.1%  
185 0% 0%  
186 0% 0%  
187 0% 0%  
188 0% 0%  
189 0% 0%  
190 0% 0%  
191 0% 0%  
192 0% 0%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0% Last Result

Sverigedemokraterna – Moderata samlingspartiet

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
132 0% 100%  
133 0.1% 99.9% Last Result
134 0.1% 99.9%  
135 0.2% 99.8%  
136 0.2% 99.5%  
137 0.6% 99.3%  
138 0.7% 98.7%  
139 0.7% 98%  
140 2% 97%  
141 2% 96%  
142 3% 94%  
143 4% 91%  
144 3% 87%  
145 4% 84%  
146 7% 80%  
147 6% 73%  
148 5% 68%  
149 6% 63%  
150 6% 57%  
151 5% 51% Median
152 7% 46%  
153 5% 39%  
154 9% 34%  
155 6% 25%  
156 5% 19%  
157 3% 14%  
158 2% 11%  
159 1.4% 9%  
160 2% 7%  
161 3% 6%  
162 0.6% 3%  
163 0.8% 2%  
164 0.7% 2%  
165 0.4% 0.9%  
166 0.3% 0.6%  
167 0.1% 0.2%  
168 0.1% 0.1%  
169 0% 0%  

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna – Feministiskt initiativ

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
116 0.1% 100%  
117 0.1% 99.9%  
118 0.2% 99.8%  
119 0.2% 99.6%  
120 0.2% 99.4%  
121 1.1% 99.3%  
122 0.5% 98%  
123 1.2% 98%  
124 3% 96%  
125 2% 94%  
126 5% 92%  
127 5% 87%  
128 3% 82%  
129 4% 79%  
130 2% 74%  
131 5% 72%  
132 4% 68%  
133 4% 63%  
134 4% 59%  
135 3% 56%  
136 6% 53%  
137 5% 47%  
138 5% 42%  
139 6% 37%  
140 5% 31%  
141 2% 27%  
142 6% 25% Median
143 6% 19%  
144 3% 13%  
145 2% 10%  
146 2% 8%  
147 2% 6%  
148 1.1% 3%  
149 1.0% 2%  
150 0.4% 1.2%  
151 0.3% 0.8%  
152 0.2% 0.4%  
153 0.1% 0.2%  
154 0% 0.1%  
155 0% 0.1%  
156 0% 0%  
157 0% 0%  
158 0% 0%  
159 0% 0% Last Result

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
116 0.1% 100%  
117 0.1% 99.9%  
118 0.2% 99.8%  
119 0.2% 99.6%  
120 0.2% 99.4%  
121 1.1% 99.3%  
122 0.5% 98%  
123 1.2% 98%  
124 3% 96%  
125 2% 94%  
126 5% 92%  
127 5% 87%  
128 3% 82%  
129 4% 79%  
130 2% 74%  
131 5% 72%  
132 4% 68%  
133 4% 63%  
134 4% 59%  
135 3% 56%  
136 6% 53%  
137 5% 47%  
138 5% 42%  
139 6% 37%  
140 5% 31%  
141 2% 27%  
142 6% 25% Median
143 6% 19%  
144 3% 13%  
145 2% 10%  
146 2% 8%  
147 2% 6%  
148 1.1% 3%  
149 1.0% 2%  
150 0.4% 1.2%  
151 0.3% 0.8%  
152 0.2% 0.4%  
153 0.1% 0.2%  
154 0% 0.1%  
155 0% 0.1%  
156 0% 0%  
157 0% 0%  
158 0% 0%  
159 0% 0% Last Result

Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna – Kristdemokraterna

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
119 0.1% 100%  
120 0.1% 99.8%  
121 0.1% 99.7%  
122 0.2% 99.6%  
123 0.1% 99.5%  
124 4% 99.3%  
125 1.1% 96%  
126 2% 94%  
127 2% 92%  
128 1.1% 90%  
129 7% 89%  
130 3% 82%  
131 11% 79%  
132 5% 68%  
133 7% 64%  
134 4% 56%  
135 3% 52%  
136 6% 49% Median
137 6% 43%  
138 7% 37%  
139 4% 30%  
140 3% 26%  
141 5% 23% Last Result
142 1.3% 18%  
143 1.1% 17%  
144 2% 16%  
145 2% 13%  
146 8% 11%  
147 0.6% 3%  
148 0.2% 2%  
149 0.4% 2%  
150 0.3% 2%  
151 0.4% 2%  
152 0.9% 1.1%  
153 0.1% 0.2%  
154 0% 0.1%  
155 0% 0.1%  
156 0.1% 0.1%  
157 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
118 0% 100%  
119 0.1% 99.9%  
120 0.2% 99.8%  
121 0.1% 99.7%  
122 0.2% 99.6%  
123 0.2% 99.4%  
124 4% 99.2%  
125 1.2% 95% Last Result
126 2% 94%  
127 2% 92%  
128 1.2% 90%  
129 7% 88%  
130 3% 81%  
131 11% 78%  
132 5% 67%  
133 7% 63%  
134 5% 55%  
135 3% 51%  
136 6% 48% Median
137 6% 41%  
138 7% 35%  
139 4% 28%  
140 3% 25%  
141 5% 22%  
142 1.0% 17%  
143 1.0% 16%  
144 2% 15%  
145 2% 12%  
146 8% 10%  
147 0.6% 2%  
148 0.1% 2%  
149 0.2% 1.4%  
150 0.1% 1.2%  
151 0.3% 1.1%  
152 0.7% 0.7%  
153 0% 0.1%  
154 0% 0%  

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
111 0.1% 100%  
112 0.1% 99.9%  
113 0.3% 99.8%  
114 0.4% 99.5%  
115 0.7% 99.0%  
116 1.1% 98%  
117 2% 97%  
118 1.0% 96%  
119 3% 95%  
120 4% 92%  
121 3% 88%  
122 5% 84%  
123 4% 79%  
124 6% 76%  
125 8% 69%  
126 10% 61%  
127 10% 51% Median
128 5% 42%  
129 7% 37%  
130 4% 30%  
131 5% 26%  
132 5% 21%  
133 3% 16%  
134 3% 13% Last Result
135 2% 10%  
136 2% 9%  
137 2% 6%  
138 1.1% 4%  
139 1.1% 3%  
140 0.8% 2%  
141 0.2% 1.0%  
142 0.6% 0.9%  
143 0.2% 0.2%  
144 0% 0.1%  
145 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 99.9%  
98 0.1% 99.9%  
99 0.1% 99.8%  
100 0.4% 99.7%  
101 0.7% 99.3%  
102 2% 98.6%  
103 2% 97%  
104 1.4% 95%  
105 3% 94%  
106 4% 91%  
107 5% 87%  
108 7% 82%  
109 8% 75%  
110 8% 67%  
111 7% 58%  
112 5% 51%  
113 5% 46% Median
114 6% 41%  
115 8% 35%  
116 5% 27%  
117 5% 22%  
118 3% 17%  
119 4% 14%  
120 3% 9%  
121 2% 6%  
122 1.4% 4% Last Result
123 0.4% 3%  
124 0.5% 2%  
125 0.6% 2%  
126 0.5% 1.3%  
127 0.2% 0.8%  
128 0.3% 0.6%  
129 0.1% 0.2%  
130 0% 0.2%  
131 0% 0.1%  
132 0.1% 0.1%  
133 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
96 0.1% 100%  
97 0.1% 99.9%  
98 0.1% 99.9%  
99 0.2% 99.8%  
100 0.4% 99.6%  
101 0.7% 99.2%  
102 2% 98%  
103 2% 97%  
104 2% 95%  
105 3% 93%  
106 4% 91% Last Result
107 5% 87%  
108 7% 81%  
109 8% 74%  
110 8% 66%  
111 7% 57%  
112 5% 50%  
113 5% 45% Median
114 6% 40%  
115 8% 33%  
116 5% 25%  
117 5% 20%  
118 3% 15%  
119 4% 12%  
120 3% 8%  
121 2% 5%  
122 1.1% 3%  
123 0.4% 2%  
124 0.4% 2%  
125 0.5% 1.1%  
126 0.3% 0.6%  
127 0.2% 0.3%  
128 0.1% 0.1%  
129 0% 0%  

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Miljöpartiet de gröna

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
81 0.1% 100%  
82 0% 99.9%  
83 0% 99.9%  
84 0.1% 99.8%  
85 0.2% 99.7%  
86 0.6% 99.5%  
87 0.7% 98.9%  
88 3% 98%  
89 3% 95%  
90 3% 91%  
91 4% 88%  
92 6% 84%  
93 4% 79%  
94 6% 75%  
95 3% 69%  
96 1.4% 67%  
97 1.1% 65%  
98 3% 64%  
99 4% 61%  
100 3% 57%  
101 5% 54%  
102 3% 49%  
103 7% 47%  
104 4% 39%  
105 8% 35%  
106 3% 27%  
107 7% 24% Median
108 2% 18%  
109 2% 16%  
110 2% 13%  
111 5% 11%  
112 1.1% 7%  
113 2% 6%  
114 0.6% 4%  
115 0.5% 3%  
116 2% 3%  
117 0.3% 0.4%  
118 0.1% 0.2%  
119 0.1% 0.1%  
120 0% 0%  
121 0% 0%  
122 0% 0%  
123 0% 0%  
124 0% 0%  
125 0% 0%  
126 0% 0%  
127 0% 0%  
128 0% 0%  
129 0% 0%  
130 0% 0%  
131 0% 0%  
132 0% 0%  
133 0% 0%  
134 0% 0%  
135 0% 0%  
136 0% 0%  
137 0% 0%  
138 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations