Opinion Poll by Novus for SVT, 7–24 June 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti 31.0% 24.5% 23.4–25.6% 23.1–25.9% 22.9–26.2% 22.4–26.7%
Sverigedemokraterna 12.9% 22.4% 21.4–23.5% 21.1–23.8% 20.8–24.0% 20.3–24.6%
Moderata samlingspartiet 23.3% 19.8% 18.8–20.8% 18.5–21.1% 18.3–21.4% 17.9–21.9%
Vänsterpartiet 5.7% 9.0% 8.3–9.8% 8.1–10.0% 8.0–10.2% 7.7–10.5%
Centerpartiet 6.1% 8.9% 8.2–9.6% 8.0–9.9% 7.8–10.0% 7.5–10.4%
Liberalerna 5.4% 4.8% 4.3–5.4% 4.2–5.6% 4.0–5.7% 3.8–6.0%
Miljöpartiet de gröna 6.9% 4.7% 4.2–5.3% 4.1–5.4% 3.9–5.6% 3.7–5.9%
Kristdemokraterna 4.6% 3.4% 3.0–3.9% 2.9–4.0% 2.8–4.2% 2.6–4.4%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti 113 89 86–96 85–97 84–98 82–100
Sverigedemokraterna 49 83 79–87 78–88 77–89 74–92
Moderata samlingspartiet 84 73 70–77 69–78 68–79 66–82
Vänsterpartiet 21 34 31–36 30–37 30–38 28–39
Centerpartiet 22 33 30–36 30–37 29–38 28–39
Liberalerna 19 18 16–20 16–21 15–21 0–22
Miljöpartiet de gröna 25 17 15–19 15–20 15–20 0–22
Kristdemokraterna 16 0 0 0–15 0–15 0–16

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
81 0.1% 100%  
82 0.4% 99.8%  
83 1.1% 99.4%  
84 2% 98%  
85 3% 96%  
86 9% 93%  
87 9% 84%  
88 14% 75%  
89 15% 61% Median
90 9% 46%  
91 6% 37%  
92 5% 32%  
93 6% 27%  
94 6% 21%  
95 4% 15%  
96 5% 11%  
97 3% 6%  
98 2% 3%  
99 0.7% 1.4%  
100 0.4% 0.7%  
101 0.2% 0.3%  
102 0.1% 0.1%  
103 0% 0.1%  
104 0% 0%  
105 0% 0%  
106 0% 0%  
107 0% 0%  
108 0% 0%  
109 0% 0%  
110 0% 0%  
111 0% 0%  
112 0% 0%  
113 0% 0% Last Result

Sverigedemokraterna

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sverigedemokraterna page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0% 100% Last Result
50 0% 100%  
51 0% 100%  
52 0% 100%  
53 0% 100%  
54 0% 100%  
55 0% 100%  
56 0% 100%  
57 0% 100%  
58 0% 100%  
59 0% 100%  
60 0% 100%  
61 0% 100%  
62 0% 100%  
63 0% 100%  
64 0% 100%  
65 0% 100%  
66 0% 100%  
67 0% 100%  
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0.1% 99.9%  
74 0.4% 99.8%  
75 0.6% 99.5%  
76 0.8% 98.9%  
77 2% 98%  
78 2% 96%  
79 4% 94%  
80 8% 89%  
81 8% 81%  
82 15% 73%  
83 10% 58% Median
84 19% 49%  
85 8% 30%  
86 10% 22%  
87 5% 11%  
88 3% 6%  
89 2% 4%  
90 0.8% 2%  
91 0.4% 1.0%  
92 0.3% 0.6%  
93 0.1% 0.3%  
94 0.1% 0.2%  
95 0.1% 0.1%  
96 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Moderata samlingspartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0.2% 100%  
65 0.3% 99.8%  
66 0.5% 99.5%  
67 1.3% 99.0%  
68 2% 98%  
69 4% 96%  
70 8% 92%  
71 12% 84%  
72 12% 72%  
73 15% 60% Median
74 6% 44%  
75 16% 38%  
76 9% 22%  
77 5% 13%  
78 4% 8%  
79 1.5% 4%  
80 1.2% 2%  
81 0.6% 1.1%  
82 0.2% 0.5%  
83 0.2% 0.3%  
84 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
85 0% 0.1%  
86 0% 0%  

Vänsterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vänsterpartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0% 100% Last Result
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0.1% 100%  
28 0.6% 99.9%  
29 2% 99.3%  
30 5% 98%  
31 10% 92%  
32 13% 83%  
33 19% 70%  
34 23% 51% Median
35 13% 28%  
36 8% 15%  
37 3% 6%  
38 2% 3%  
39 0.5% 0.9%  
40 0.3% 0.3%  
41 0.1% 0.1%  
42 0% 0%  

Centerpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Centerpartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0% 100% Last Result
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0.3% 100%  
28 1.1% 99.6%  
29 3% 98.5%  
30 6% 95%  
31 12% 89%  
32 15% 77%  
33 20% 63% Median
34 17% 43%  
35 12% 26%  
36 6% 13%  
37 4% 7%  
38 2% 3%  
39 0.6% 0.9%  
40 0.3% 0.4%  
41 0% 0.1%  
42 0% 0%  

Liberalerna

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberalerna page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 2% 100%  
1 0% 98%  
2 0% 98%  
3 0% 98%  
4 0% 98%  
5 0% 98%  
6 0% 98%  
7 0% 98%  
8 0% 98%  
9 0% 98%  
10 0% 98%  
11 0% 98%  
12 0% 98%  
13 0% 98%  
14 0% 98%  
15 3% 98%  
16 17% 95%  
17 18% 78%  
18 22% 60% Median
19 21% 38% Last Result
20 11% 17%  
21 5% 6%  
22 1.1% 1.4%  
23 0.2% 0.3%  
24 0% 0%  

Miljöpartiet de gröna

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljöpartiet de gröna page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 2% 100%  
1 0% 98%  
2 0% 98%  
3 0% 98%  
4 0% 98%  
5 0% 98%  
6 0% 98%  
7 0% 98%  
8 0% 98%  
9 0% 98%  
10 0% 98%  
11 0% 98%  
12 0% 98%  
13 0% 98%  
14 0.1% 98%  
15 11% 98%  
16 30% 88%  
17 8% 57% Median
18 24% 49%  
19 20% 25%  
20 3% 6%  
21 1.2% 2%  
22 1.0% 1.1%  
23 0.1% 0.1%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0% Last Result

Kristdemokraterna

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristdemokraterna page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 93% 100% Median
1 0% 7%  
2 0% 7%  
3 0% 7%  
4 0% 7%  
5 0% 7%  
6 0% 7%  
7 0% 7%  
8 0% 7%  
9 0% 7%  
10 0% 7%  
11 0% 7%  
12 0% 7%  
13 0% 7%  
14 2% 7%  
15 4% 5%  
16 0.8% 0.9% Last Result
17 0.1% 0.1%  
18 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet 197 163 1.1% 158–169 157–171 155–173 152–177
Sverigedemokraterna – Moderata samlingspartiet 133 157 0% 152–161 150–163 148–164 145–168
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna 159 140 0% 135–147 134–148 132–149 129–152
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna – Kristdemokraterna 141 125 0% 120–131 119–133 117–136 111–139
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna 125 124 0% 119–129 117–131 116–132 110–134
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet 134 123 0% 119–129 117–130 116–132 114–135
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna 122 107 0% 103–113 101–116 100–119 98–122
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Miljöpartiet de gröna 138 106 0% 103–113 102–114 100–115 94–117
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet 106 107 0% 102–111 100–113 99–114 97–117

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
149 0% 100%  
150 0% 99.9%  
151 0.2% 99.9%  
152 0.4% 99.7%  
153 0.3% 99.3%  
154 1.0% 99.0%  
155 0.8% 98%  
156 1.4% 97%  
157 5% 96%  
158 2% 91%  
159 8% 88%  
160 10% 81%  
161 4% 70%  
162 9% 66% Median
163 10% 57%  
164 4% 47%  
165 14% 43%  
166 6% 29%  
167 5% 22%  
168 5% 17%  
169 3% 12%  
170 3% 9%  
171 2% 6%  
172 2% 4%  
173 0.9% 3%  
174 0.7% 2%  
175 0.4% 1.1% Majority
176 0.2% 0.7%  
177 0.1% 0.5%  
178 0.2% 0.4%  
179 0% 0.2%  
180 0% 0.2%  
181 0.1% 0.1%  
182 0% 0.1%  
183 0% 0%  
184 0% 0%  
185 0% 0%  
186 0% 0%  
187 0% 0%  
188 0% 0%  
189 0% 0%  
190 0% 0%  
191 0% 0%  
192 0% 0%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0% Last Result

Sverigedemokraterna – Moderata samlingspartiet

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
133 0% 100% Last Result
134 0% 100%  
135 0% 100%  
136 0% 100%  
137 0% 100%  
138 0% 100%  
139 0% 100%  
140 0% 100%  
141 0% 100%  
142 0% 99.9%  
143 0.1% 99.9%  
144 0.1% 99.8%  
145 0.3% 99.6%  
146 0.3% 99.4%  
147 0.7% 99.1%  
148 1.1% 98%  
149 1.2% 97%  
150 3% 96%  
151 3% 93%  
152 4% 90%  
153 8% 86%  
154 8% 79%  
155 9% 71%  
156 9% 62% Median
157 9% 53%  
158 16% 43%  
159 11% 27%  
160 5% 16%  
161 3% 12%  
162 3% 9%  
163 2% 6%  
164 1.2% 3%  
165 0.7% 2%  
166 0.5% 1.5%  
167 0.3% 1.0%  
168 0.2% 0.7%  
169 0.1% 0.4%  
170 0.1% 0.3%  
171 0% 0.2%  
172 0.1% 0.1%  
173 0% 0.1%  
174 0% 0%  

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
124 0% 100%  
125 0% 99.9%  
126 0% 99.9%  
127 0.1% 99.8%  
128 0.2% 99.8%  
129 0.3% 99.6%  
130 0.3% 99.3%  
131 0.5% 99.0%  
132 1.1% 98.5%  
133 2% 97%  
134 2% 95%  
135 4% 94%  
136 5% 90%  
137 5% 85%  
138 10% 80%  
139 16% 70%  
140 10% 54% Median
141 9% 44%  
142 5% 35%  
143 5% 31%  
144 4% 26%  
145 4% 21%  
146 6% 17%  
147 5% 11%  
148 3% 6%  
149 1.4% 3%  
150 0.8% 2%  
151 0.5% 1.2%  
152 0.3% 0.7%  
153 0.1% 0.3%  
154 0.1% 0.2%  
155 0.1% 0.1%  
156 0% 0%  
157 0% 0%  
158 0% 0%  
159 0% 0% Last Result

Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna – Kristdemokraterna

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
106 0.1% 100%  
107 0% 99.9%  
108 0.2% 99.9%  
109 0% 99.8%  
110 0.2% 99.7%  
111 0% 99.5%  
112 0.1% 99.5%  
113 0.2% 99.4%  
114 0.2% 99.1%  
115 0.4% 98.9%  
116 0.5% 98%  
117 1.4% 98%  
118 1.0% 97%  
119 4% 96%  
120 4% 91%  
121 8% 88%  
122 4% 79%  
123 9% 75%  
124 10% 66% Median
125 9% 56%  
126 12% 47%  
127 6% 34%  
128 10% 29%  
129 4% 19%  
130 3% 15%  
131 4% 12%  
132 3% 8%  
133 1.3% 6%  
134 0.9% 4%  
135 0.7% 4%  
136 0.6% 3%  
137 0.7% 2%  
138 0.8% 1.4%  
139 0.2% 0.6%  
140 0.1% 0.4%  
141 0.1% 0.2% Last Result
142 0.1% 0.1%  
143 0% 0.1%  
144 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
105 0% 100%  
106 0.1% 99.9%  
107 0% 99.9%  
108 0.2% 99.8%  
109 0% 99.6%  
110 0.2% 99.6%  
111 0.1% 99.4%  
112 0.2% 99.3%  
113 0.3% 99.1%  
114 0.4% 98.8%  
115 0.7% 98%  
116 1.2% 98%  
117 2% 97%  
118 3% 95%  
119 5% 92%  
120 4% 87%  
121 9% 83%  
122 5% 74%  
123 10% 70%  
124 10% 59% Median
125 9% 50% Last Result
126 13% 40%  
127 6% 28%  
128 10% 22%  
129 3% 12%  
130 3% 9%  
131 3% 6%  
132 1.3% 3%  
133 0.7% 1.4%  
134 0.3% 0.8%  
135 0.1% 0.5%  
136 0.2% 0.4%  
137 0% 0.2%  
138 0.1% 0.1%  
139 0.1% 0.1%  
140 0% 0%  

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
112 0.1% 100%  
113 0.3% 99.9%  
114 0.4% 99.6%  
115 0.5% 99.2%  
116 2% 98.7%  
117 4% 97%  
118 3% 93%  
119 5% 91%  
120 6% 85%  
121 10% 79%  
122 10% 69%  
123 13% 59% Median
124 9% 47%  
125 8% 38%  
126 6% 29%  
127 7% 23%  
128 5% 16%  
129 4% 12%  
130 3% 7%  
131 2% 5%  
132 0.9% 3%  
133 1.0% 2%  
134 0.5% 1.0% Last Result
135 0.3% 0.5%  
136 0.1% 0.2%  
137 0% 0.1%  
138 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
96 0.1% 100%  
97 0.2% 99.9%  
98 0.4% 99.7%  
99 0.9% 99.3%  
100 1.5% 98%  
101 2% 97%  
102 3% 95%  
103 8% 91%  
104 6% 83%  
105 8% 77%  
106 10% 69% Median
107 15% 59%  
108 9% 44%  
109 11% 35%  
110 5% 24%  
111 4% 19%  
112 3% 15%  
113 3% 12%  
114 2% 9%  
115 1.5% 8%  
116 2% 6%  
117 0.7% 4%  
118 0.7% 3%  
119 0.9% 3%  
120 0.9% 2%  
121 0.2% 0.8%  
122 0.3% 0.6% Last Result
123 0.1% 0.3%  
124 0.1% 0.2%  
125 0% 0.1%  
126 0% 0.1%  
127 0% 0%  

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Miljöpartiet de gröna

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
91 0.1% 100%  
92 0.1% 99.9%  
93 0.2% 99.8%  
94 0.3% 99.6%  
95 0.5% 99.4%  
96 0.2% 98.9%  
97 0.2% 98.7%  
98 0.2% 98.6%  
99 0.2% 98%  
100 0.7% 98%  
101 2% 97%  
102 4% 96%  
103 6% 91%  
104 13% 85%  
105 16% 72%  
106 15% 56% Median
107 5% 41%  
108 4% 36%  
109 2% 32%  
110 3% 30%  
111 4% 27%  
112 6% 23%  
113 7% 17%  
114 5% 10%  
115 3% 5%  
116 0.9% 2%  
117 0.7% 1.2%  
118 0.3% 0.5%  
119 0.1% 0.2%  
120 0.1% 0.1%  
121 0% 0%  
122 0% 0%  
123 0% 0%  
124 0% 0%  
125 0% 0%  
126 0% 0%  
127 0% 0%  
128 0% 0%  
129 0% 0%  
130 0% 0%  
131 0% 0%  
132 0% 0%  
133 0% 0%  
134 0% 0%  
135 0% 0%  
136 0% 0%  
137 0% 0%  
138 0% 0% Last Result

Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
95 0.1% 100%  
96 0.1% 99.9%  
97 0.4% 99.7%  
98 0.6% 99.4%  
99 2% 98.8%  
100 2% 97%  
101 3% 95%  
102 5% 92%  
103 9% 87%  
104 6% 78%  
105 9% 71%  
106 10% 63% Last Result, Median
107 15% 52%  
108 9% 37%  
109 11% 28%  
110 5% 17%  
111 4% 12%  
112 3% 8%  
113 2% 5%  
114 1.1% 3%  
115 0.7% 2%  
116 0.3% 1.0%  
117 0.3% 0.7%  
118 0.2% 0.4%  
119 0.2% 0.3%  
120 0% 0.1%  
121 0% 0.1%  
122 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations