Opinion Poll by Inizio for Aftonbladet, 20–26 June 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti 31.0% 23.9% 22.7–25.1% 22.4–25.5% 22.1–25.8% 21.6–26.4%
Moderata samlingspartiet 23.3% 20.6% 19.5–21.8% 19.2–22.1% 18.9–22.4% 18.4–23.0%
Sverigedemokraterna 12.9% 20.5% 19.4–21.7% 19.1–22.0% 18.8–22.3% 18.3–22.9%
Centerpartiet 6.1% 9.5% 8.7–10.4% 8.5–10.6% 8.3–10.8% 7.9–11.3%
Vänsterpartiet 5.7% 8.9% 8.2–9.8% 7.9–10.0% 7.8–10.2% 7.4–10.6%
Liberalerna 5.4% 5.1% 4.5–5.8% 4.4–6.0% 4.2–6.1% 4.0–6.5%
Kristdemokraterna 4.6% 4.5% 3.9–5.1% 3.8–5.3% 3.7–5.5% 3.4–5.8%
Miljöpartiet de gröna 6.9% 3.9% 3.4–4.5% 3.3–4.7% 3.1–4.8% 2.9–5.1%
Feministiskt initiativ 3.1% 1.4% 1.1–1.8% 1.0–1.9% 1.0–2.0% 0.9–2.2%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti 113 89 82–94 80–95 79–97 79–100
Moderata samlingspartiet 84 76 71–81 70–84 69–86 67–88
Sverigedemokraterna 49 76 71–80 70–82 69–84 66–86
Centerpartiet 22 35 32–38 31–40 31–40 29–42
Vänsterpartiet 21 33 30–36 29–37 28–38 27–40
Liberalerna 19 19 17–22 16–22 16–23 0–24
Kristdemokraterna 16 17 0–19 0–19 0–20 0–21
Miljöpartiet de gröna 25 0 0–16 0–17 0–17 0–19
Feministiskt initiativ 0 0 0 0 0 0

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
76 0.1% 100%  
77 0.1% 99.9%  
78 0.2% 99.8%  
79 4% 99.6%  
80 2% 96%  
81 1.3% 94%  
82 4% 93%  
83 4% 89%  
84 6% 85%  
85 5% 79%  
86 14% 74%  
87 6% 60%  
88 3% 54%  
89 15% 51% Median
90 7% 35%  
91 5% 29%  
92 10% 24%  
93 3% 13%  
94 3% 10%  
95 3% 7%  
96 2% 4%  
97 1.4% 3%  
98 0.2% 1.2%  
99 0.4% 0.9%  
100 0.3% 0.5%  
101 0.1% 0.3%  
102 0.1% 0.2%  
103 0.1% 0.1%  
104 0% 0%  
105 0% 0%  
106 0% 0%  
107 0% 0%  
108 0% 0%  
109 0% 0%  
110 0% 0%  
111 0% 0%  
112 0% 0%  
113 0% 0% Last Result

Moderata samlingspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Moderata samlingspartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
65 0.1% 100%  
66 0.2% 99.9%  
67 0.5% 99.7%  
68 0.6% 99.3%  
69 2% 98.7%  
70 2% 97%  
71 10% 94%  
72 8% 84%  
73 4% 76%  
74 8% 73%  
75 6% 65%  
76 13% 59% Median
77 7% 46%  
78 19% 39%  
79 3% 20%  
80 5% 17%  
81 4% 13%  
82 2% 9%  
83 1.3% 6%  
84 2% 5% Last Result
85 0.5% 3%  
86 1.4% 3%  
87 0.2% 1.2%  
88 0.8% 1.0%  
89 0% 0.2%  
90 0.1% 0.1%  
91 0% 0.1%  
92 0% 0%  

Sverigedemokraterna

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sverigedemokraterna page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0% 100% Last Result
50 0% 100%  
51 0% 100%  
52 0% 100%  
53 0% 100%  
54 0% 100%  
55 0% 100%  
56 0% 100%  
57 0% 100%  
58 0% 100%  
59 0% 100%  
60 0% 100%  
61 0% 100%  
62 0% 100%  
63 0% 100%  
64 0.1% 100%  
65 0.3% 99.9%  
66 0.3% 99.6%  
67 0.7% 99.3%  
68 0.8% 98.6%  
69 3% 98%  
70 3% 95%  
71 8% 92%  
72 8% 84%  
73 4% 75%  
74 6% 71%  
75 8% 65%  
76 18% 58% Median
77 15% 40%  
78 3% 25%  
79 9% 21%  
80 3% 12%  
81 3% 9%  
82 2% 6%  
83 1.2% 4%  
84 1.3% 3%  
85 0.8% 2%  
86 0.5% 0.8%  
87 0.2% 0.3%  
88 0.1% 0.2%  
89 0% 0.1%  
90 0% 0.1%  
91 0% 0%  

Centerpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Centerpartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0% 100% Last Result
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0.1% 100%  
28 0.2% 99.9%  
29 0.8% 99.7%  
30 1.1% 98.9%  
31 4% 98%  
32 7% 93%  
33 9% 87%  
34 9% 77%  
35 25% 68% Median
36 15% 43%  
37 10% 28%  
38 9% 17%  
39 3% 9%  
40 4% 6%  
41 1.3% 2%  
42 0.3% 0.7%  
43 0.3% 0.4%  
44 0.1% 0.1%  
45 0% 0%  

Vänsterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vänsterpartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0% 100% Last Result
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0.2% 100%  
27 0.5% 99.8%  
28 3% 99.3%  
29 5% 96%  
30 5% 91%  
31 13% 85%  
32 10% 72%  
33 19% 62% Median
34 17% 43%  
35 12% 25%  
36 5% 14%  
37 5% 9%  
38 2% 4%  
39 1.3% 2%  
40 0.8% 1.0%  
41 0.1% 0.2%  
42 0.1% 0.1%  
43 0% 0%  

Liberalerna

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberalerna page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.6% 100%  
1 0% 99.4%  
2 0% 99.4%  
3 0% 99.4%  
4 0% 99.4%  
5 0% 99.4%  
6 0% 99.4%  
7 0% 99.4%  
8 0% 99.4%  
9 0% 99.4%  
10 0% 99.4%  
11 0% 99.4%  
12 0% 99.4%  
13 0% 99.4%  
14 0.1% 99.4%  
15 2% 99.4%  
16 4% 98%  
17 12% 93%  
18 26% 81%  
19 17% 56% Last Result, Median
20 18% 38%  
21 10% 21%  
22 7% 11%  
23 4% 4%  
24 0.5% 0.7%  
25 0.2% 0.2%  
26 0% 0.1%  
27 0% 0%  

Kristdemokraterna

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristdemokraterna page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 10% 100%  
1 0% 90%  
2 0% 90%  
3 0% 90%  
4 0% 90%  
5 0% 90%  
6 0% 90%  
7 0% 90%  
8 0% 90%  
9 0% 90%  
10 0% 90%  
11 0% 90%  
12 0% 90%  
13 0% 90%  
14 0.3% 90%  
15 5% 89%  
16 26% 84% Last Result
17 18% 58% Median
18 28% 40%  
19 8% 12%  
20 2% 4%  
21 1.1% 1.5%  
22 0.2% 0.4%  
23 0.1% 0.1%  
24 0% 0%  

Miljöpartiet de gröna

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljöpartiet de gröna page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 58% 100% Median
1 0% 42%  
2 0% 42%  
3 0% 42%  
4 0% 42%  
5 0% 42%  
6 0% 42%  
7 0% 42%  
8 0% 42%  
9 0% 42%  
10 0% 42%  
11 0% 42%  
12 0% 42%  
13 0% 42%  
14 0.5% 42%  
15 21% 41%  
16 15% 21%  
17 4% 6%  
18 2% 2%  
19 0.5% 0.6%  
20 0.1% 0.1%  
21 0% 0%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0% Last Result

Feministiskt initiativ

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Feministiskt initiativ page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet 197 164 5% 156–171 154–174 154–179 152–181
Moderata samlingspartiet – Sverigedemokraterna 133 152 0% 144–159 142–162 142–165 139–168
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna – Kristdemokraterna 141 147 0% 138–152 134–153 131–156 129–159
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna 125 131 0% 122–135 122–140 120–142 117–145
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna – Feministiskt initiativ 159 127 0% 120–135 118–138 117–141 114–145
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna 159 127 0% 120–135 118–138 117–141 114–145
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna 122 128 0% 119–133 117–135 113–136 110–140
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet 134 122 0% 113–128 112–130 111–132 109–135
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet 106 112 0% 105–117 104–119 102–122 100–125
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Miljöpartiet de gröna 138 94 0% 87–103 84–105 84–108 82–112

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
147 0% 100%  
148 0.1% 99.9%  
149 0.1% 99.9%  
150 0.1% 99.8%  
151 0.1% 99.6%  
152 0.1% 99.5%  
153 0.9% 99.4%  
154 4% 98.5%  
155 4% 95%  
156 4% 91%  
157 11% 87%  
158 3% 77%  
159 3% 74%  
160 4% 71%  
161 4% 67%  
162 4% 63%  
163 7% 59%  
164 3% 51%  
165 4% 48% Median
166 2% 45%  
167 11% 43%  
168 2% 32%  
169 4% 30%  
170 12% 26%  
171 6% 14%  
172 1.0% 9%  
173 2% 8%  
174 1.5% 6%  
175 0.4% 5% Majority
176 0.3% 4%  
177 0.1% 4%  
178 1.0% 4%  
179 1.1% 3%  
180 0.5% 2%  
181 1.1% 1.3%  
182 0.1% 0.2%  
183 0% 0.1%  
184 0% 0.1%  
185 0% 0.1%  
186 0% 0.1%  
187 0% 0%  
188 0% 0%  
189 0% 0%  
190 0% 0%  
191 0% 0%  
192 0% 0%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0% Last Result

Moderata samlingspartiet – Sverigedemokraterna

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
133 0% 100% Last Result
134 0% 100%  
135 0% 100%  
136 0.1% 100%  
137 0% 99.9%  
138 0.3% 99.9%  
139 0.5% 99.6%  
140 1.0% 99.2%  
141 0.4% 98%  
142 5% 98%  
143 2% 92%  
144 1.3% 91%  
145 4% 89%  
146 1.3% 85%  
147 8% 84%  
148 6% 76%  
149 7% 70%  
150 4% 63%  
151 8% 59%  
152 4% 51% Median
153 7% 46%  
154 10% 40%  
155 12% 30%  
156 3% 18%  
157 2% 16%  
158 4% 14%  
159 2% 10%  
160 0.6% 8%  
161 2% 8%  
162 1.4% 6%  
163 0.8% 5%  
164 1.1% 4%  
165 1.3% 3%  
166 0.7% 2%  
167 0.2% 0.9%  
168 0.2% 0.6%  
169 0.1% 0.5%  
170 0.1% 0.4%  
171 0.2% 0.3%  
172 0% 0.1%  
173 0% 0.1%  
174 0.1% 0.1%  
175 0% 0% Majority

Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna – Kristdemokraterna

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
123 0% 100%  
124 0% 99.9%  
125 0% 99.9%  
126 0.1% 99.9%  
127 0.1% 99.8%  
128 0.2% 99.7%  
129 0.8% 99.5%  
130 1.0% 98.7%  
131 0.3% 98%  
132 0.9% 97%  
133 0.7% 97%  
134 1.0% 96%  
135 0.4% 95%  
136 2% 95%  
137 2% 93%  
138 4% 91%  
139 3% 87%  
140 3% 84%  
141 2% 80% Last Result
142 2% 79%  
143 6% 77%  
144 3% 71%  
145 8% 68%  
146 6% 60%  
147 10% 54% Median
148 7% 43%  
149 4% 36%  
150 18% 33%  
151 4% 15%  
152 4% 11%  
153 3% 7%  
154 0.9% 4%  
155 0.4% 3%  
156 0.9% 3%  
157 0.8% 2%  
158 0.2% 0.9%  
159 0.4% 0.7%  
160 0.1% 0.3%  
161 0.1% 0.2%  
162 0.1% 0.1%  
163 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
111 0.2% 100%  
112 0% 99.8%  
113 0.1% 99.8%  
114 0% 99.7%  
115 0.1% 99.7%  
116 0.1% 99.6%  
117 0.1% 99.6%  
118 0.8% 99.5%  
119 0.4% 98.7%  
120 0.9% 98%  
121 2% 97%  
122 6% 95%  
123 2% 89%  
124 2% 88%  
125 1.5% 86% Last Result
126 2% 85%  
127 7% 83%  
128 7% 76%  
129 7% 69%  
130 8% 62% Median
131 9% 54%  
132 19% 44%  
133 4% 25%  
134 9% 21%  
135 3% 13%  
136 1.0% 10%  
137 2% 9%  
138 0.8% 7%  
139 0.9% 6%  
140 1.4% 5%  
141 1.0% 4%  
142 0.8% 3%  
143 0.7% 2%  
144 0.6% 2%  
145 0.8% 0.9%  
146 0% 0.1%  
147 0% 0.1%  
148 0% 0.1%  
149 0% 0.1%  
150 0% 0%  

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna – Feministiskt initiativ

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
111 0% 100%  
112 0.1% 99.9%  
113 0.1% 99.9%  
114 0.3% 99.8%  
115 0.8% 99.5%  
116 0.7% 98.7%  
117 1.2% 98%  
118 3% 97%  
119 2% 94%  
120 2% 92%  
121 2% 89%  
122 10% 88% Median
123 10% 78%  
124 6% 67%  
125 6% 61%  
126 3% 55%  
127 6% 52%  
128 3% 46%  
129 5% 43%  
130 4% 38%  
131 3% 34%  
132 5% 31%  
133 5% 26%  
134 2% 21%  
135 9% 19%  
136 1.4% 10%  
137 3% 8%  
138 1.5% 6%  
139 1.2% 4%  
140 0.6% 3%  
141 0.4% 3%  
142 0.9% 2%  
143 0.4% 1.2%  
144 0.2% 0.8%  
145 0.2% 0.6%  
146 0.2% 0.5%  
147 0% 0.2%  
148 0.1% 0.2%  
149 0% 0.1%  
150 0% 0%  
151 0% 0%  
152 0% 0%  
153 0% 0%  
154 0% 0%  
155 0% 0%  
156 0% 0%  
157 0% 0%  
158 0% 0%  
159 0% 0% Last Result

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
111 0% 100%  
112 0.1% 99.9%  
113 0.1% 99.9%  
114 0.3% 99.8%  
115 0.8% 99.5%  
116 0.7% 98.7%  
117 1.2% 98%  
118 3% 97%  
119 2% 94%  
120 2% 92%  
121 2% 89%  
122 10% 88% Median
123 10% 78%  
124 6% 67%  
125 6% 61%  
126 3% 55%  
127 6% 52%  
128 3% 46%  
129 5% 43%  
130 4% 38%  
131 3% 34%  
132 5% 31%  
133 5% 26%  
134 2% 21%  
135 9% 19%  
136 1.4% 10%  
137 3% 8%  
138 1.5% 6%  
139 1.2% 4%  
140 0.6% 3%  
141 0.4% 3%  
142 0.9% 2%  
143 0.4% 1.2%  
144 0.2% 0.8%  
145 0.2% 0.6%  
146 0.2% 0.5%  
147 0% 0.2%  
148 0.1% 0.2%  
149 0% 0.1%  
150 0% 0%  
151 0% 0%  
152 0% 0%  
153 0% 0%  
154 0% 0%  
155 0% 0%  
156 0% 0%  
157 0% 0%  
158 0% 0%  
159 0% 0% Last Result

Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 99.9%  
107 0.1% 99.9%  
108 0.1% 99.8%  
109 0.1% 99.7%  
110 0.5% 99.6%  
111 0.4% 99.2%  
112 1.1% 98.7%  
113 0.5% 98%  
114 0.9% 97%  
115 0.3% 96%  
116 0.8% 96%  
117 2% 95%  
118 2% 93%  
119 2% 92%  
120 4% 89%  
121 2% 85%  
122 8% 84% Last Result
123 2% 76%  
124 4% 74%  
125 8% 70%  
126 6% 62%  
127 3% 56%  
128 8% 52% Median
129 9% 45%  
130 2% 35%  
131 12% 33%  
132 10% 21%  
133 2% 12%  
134 3% 9%  
135 4% 6%  
136 0.4% 3%  
137 0.8% 2%  
138 0.6% 1.5%  
139 0.3% 0.9%  
140 0.3% 0.6%  
141 0.2% 0.3%  
142 0% 0.1%  
143 0.1% 0.1%  
144 0% 0.1%  
145 0% 0%  

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
107 0% 100%  
108 0.1% 99.9%  
109 0.3% 99.8%  
110 1.5% 99.5%  
111 2% 98%  
112 3% 96%  
113 3% 93%  
114 2% 90%  
115 3% 88%  
116 3% 85%  
117 4% 82%  
118 7% 77%  
119 8% 70%  
120 7% 63%  
121 3% 55%  
122 12% 52% Median
123 11% 40%  
124 7% 29%  
125 5% 22%  
126 3% 16%  
127 2% 13%  
128 2% 11%  
129 3% 9%  
130 2% 6%  
131 0.8% 4%  
132 1.2% 3%  
133 0.9% 2%  
134 0.1% 1.1% Last Result
135 0.5% 1.0%  
136 0.2% 0.5%  
137 0.1% 0.3%  
138 0.1% 0.2%  
139 0.1% 0.1%  
140 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
97 0.1% 100%  
98 0% 99.9%  
99 0.3% 99.9%  
100 0.1% 99.5%  
101 1.0% 99.4%  
102 2% 98%  
103 0.6% 96%  
104 5% 96%  
105 3% 91%  
106 6% 88% Last Result
107 3% 82%  
108 7% 79%  
109 7% 72%  
110 5% 64%  
111 8% 60% Median
112 9% 52%  
113 10% 43%  
114 12% 33%  
115 5% 22%  
116 5% 17%  
117 2% 12%  
118 2% 9%  
119 2% 7%  
120 0.9% 5%  
121 0.6% 4%  
122 1.3% 3%  
123 0.2% 2%  
124 0.7% 2%  
125 0.8% 1.1%  
126 0.1% 0.3%  
127 0.1% 0.2%  
128 0% 0.1%  
129 0% 0%  

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Miljöpartiet de gröna

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 99.9%  
81 0.2% 99.9%  
82 1.0% 99.7%  
83 0.5% 98.7%  
84 3% 98%  
85 2% 95%  
86 2% 93%  
87 3% 91%  
88 2% 88%  
89 12% 86% Median
90 6% 73%  
91 4% 67%  
92 10% 63%  
93 3% 53%  
94 6% 51%  
95 4% 45%  
96 3% 41%  
97 2% 38%  
98 4% 36%  
99 3% 32%  
100 4% 29%  
101 9% 25%  
102 5% 16%  
103 2% 12%  
104 3% 9%  
105 2% 6%  
106 1.3% 5%  
107 0.7% 3%  
108 0.4% 3%  
109 0.9% 2%  
110 0.6% 1.3%  
111 0.1% 0.6%  
112 0.3% 0.5%  
113 0.2% 0.3%  
114 0% 0%  
115 0% 0%  
116 0% 0%  
117 0% 0%  
118 0% 0%  
119 0% 0%  
120 0% 0%  
121 0% 0%  
122 0% 0%  
123 0% 0%  
124 0% 0%  
125 0% 0%  
126 0% 0%  
127 0% 0%  
128 0% 0%  
129 0% 0%  
130 0% 0%  
131 0% 0%  
132 0% 0%  
133 0% 0%  
134 0% 0%  
135 0% 0%  
136 0% 0%  
137 0% 0%  
138 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations