Opinion Poll by Demoskop for Expressen, 25 June–3 July 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti 31.0% 25.9% 24.5–27.3% 24.1–27.7% 23.8–28.1% 23.2–28.8%
Sverigedemokraterna 12.9% 21.0% 19.7–22.3% 19.4–22.7% 19.1–23.1% 18.5–23.7%
Moderata samlingspartiet 23.3% 19.9% 18.6–21.2% 18.3–21.6% 18.0–21.9% 17.4–22.5%
Centerpartiet 6.1% 9.8% 8.9–10.8% 8.6–11.1% 8.4–11.3% 8.0–11.8%
Vänsterpartiet 5.7% 9.1% 8.2–10.1% 8.0–10.4% 7.8–10.6% 7.4–11.1%
Liberalerna 5.4% 4.3% 3.7–5.0% 3.5–5.2% 3.4–5.4% 3.1–5.7%
Miljöpartiet de gröna 6.9% 4.2% 3.6–4.9% 3.5–5.1% 3.3–5.3% 3.1–5.7%
Kristdemokraterna 4.6% 2.5% 2.0–3.0% 1.9–3.2% 1.8–3.4% 1.6–3.7%
Feministiskt initiativ 3.1% 1.9% 1.5–2.4% 1.4–2.6% 1.4–2.7% 1.2–3.0%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti 113 99 92–107 91–109 89–109 86–112
Sverigedemokraterna 49 80 75–88 73–88 71–89 69–92
Moderata samlingspartiet 84 75 69–80 68–83 67–84 65–87
Centerpartiet 22 37 33–41 32–42 32–43 30–45
Vänsterpartiet 21 35 31–39 30–41 29–41 28–44
Liberalerna 19 16 0–19 0–19 0–20 0–22
Miljöpartiet de gröna 25 16 0–18 0–19 0–20 0–21
Kristdemokraterna 16 0 0 0 0 0
Feministiskt initiativ 0 0 0 0 0 0

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
83 0% 100%  
84 0.1% 99.9%  
85 0.1% 99.9%  
86 0.8% 99.8%  
87 0.6% 99.0%  
88 0.3% 98%  
89 1.4% 98%  
90 2% 97%  
91 5% 95%  
92 3% 90%  
93 2% 87%  
94 2% 85%  
95 14% 83%  
96 5% 69%  
97 4% 64%  
98 8% 60%  
99 4% 53% Median
100 10% 48%  
101 8% 39%  
102 4% 31%  
103 8% 27%  
104 6% 19%  
105 1.3% 13%  
106 2% 12%  
107 2% 10%  
108 1.2% 9%  
109 6% 8%  
110 0.6% 2%  
111 0.2% 1.1%  
112 0.6% 0.9%  
113 0.1% 0.3% Last Result
114 0% 0.2%  
115 0.1% 0.2%  
116 0% 0.1%  
117 0% 0.1%  
118 0% 0.1%  
119 0% 0%  

Sverigedemokraterna

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sverigedemokraterna page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0% 100% Last Result
50 0% 100%  
51 0% 100%  
52 0% 100%  
53 0% 100%  
54 0% 100%  
55 0% 100%  
56 0% 100%  
57 0% 100%  
58 0% 100%  
59 0% 100%  
60 0% 100%  
61 0% 100%  
62 0% 100%  
63 0% 100%  
64 0% 100%  
65 0% 100%  
66 0% 100%  
67 0.1% 100%  
68 0.2% 99.9%  
69 0.5% 99.7%  
70 0.8% 99.2%  
71 1.0% 98%  
72 2% 97%  
73 3% 96%  
74 2% 93%  
75 4% 91%  
76 14% 87%  
77 4% 72%  
78 5% 68%  
79 11% 63%  
80 6% 52% Median
81 12% 45%  
82 7% 34%  
83 7% 27%  
84 3% 20%  
85 2% 17%  
86 3% 14%  
87 0.8% 12%  
88 7% 11%  
89 2% 4%  
90 0.7% 2%  
91 0.6% 2%  
92 0.7% 1.1%  
93 0.2% 0.4%  
94 0.1% 0.1%  
95 0% 0.1%  
96 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Moderata samlingspartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
63 0% 100%  
64 0.1% 99.9%  
65 0.4% 99.8%  
66 1.1% 99.4%  
67 1.4% 98%  
68 2% 97%  
69 6% 94%  
70 2% 88%  
71 5% 87%  
72 8% 82%  
73 11% 74%  
74 8% 63%  
75 6% 55% Median
76 6% 49%  
77 10% 43%  
78 4% 33%  
79 15% 28%  
80 4% 13%  
81 1.4% 10%  
82 3% 8%  
83 2% 5%  
84 2% 3% Last Result
85 0.5% 2%  
86 0.5% 1.1%  
87 0.3% 0.5%  
88 0.1% 0.3%  
89 0.1% 0.2%  
90 0% 0.1%  
91 0% 0%  

Centerpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Centerpartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0% 100% Last Result
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0% 100%  
28 0.1% 100%  
29 0.1% 99.9%  
30 0.4% 99.7%  
31 2% 99.3%  
32 3% 98%  
33 4% 94%  
34 6% 90%  
35 11% 84%  
36 7% 73%  
37 19% 67% Median
38 10% 48%  
39 12% 38%  
40 13% 26%  
41 7% 13%  
42 3% 7%  
43 1.4% 4%  
44 1.1% 2%  
45 0.9% 1.3%  
46 0.3% 0.5%  
47 0.1% 0.2%  
48 0% 0.1%  
49 0% 0%  

Vänsterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vänsterpartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0% 100% Last Result
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0.1% 100%  
27 0.2% 99.9%  
28 2% 99.7%  
29 2% 98%  
30 3% 96%  
31 3% 93%  
32 12% 90%  
33 10% 78%  
34 12% 68%  
35 15% 56% Median
36 15% 41%  
37 10% 26%  
38 6% 16%  
39 2% 10%  
40 3% 8%  
41 4% 5%  
42 0.5% 1.4%  
43 0.4% 0.9%  
44 0.4% 0.5%  
45 0.1% 0.1%  
46 0% 0%  

Liberalerna

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberalerna page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 30% 100%  
1 0% 70%  
2 0% 70%  
3 0% 70%  
4 0% 70%  
5 0% 70%  
6 0% 70%  
7 0% 70%  
8 0% 70%  
9 0% 70%  
10 0% 70%  
11 0% 70%  
12 0% 70%  
13 0% 70%  
14 0% 70%  
15 5% 70%  
16 20% 64% Median
17 24% 45%  
18 11% 21%  
19 6% 11% Last Result
20 3% 5%  
21 1.1% 2%  
22 0.6% 0.7%  
23 0.1% 0.1%  
24 0% 0%  

Miljöpartiet de gröna

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljöpartiet de gröna page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 38% 100%  
1 0% 62%  
2 0% 62%  
3 0% 62%  
4 0% 62%  
5 0% 62%  
6 0% 62%  
7 0% 62%  
8 0% 62%  
9 0% 62%  
10 0% 62%  
11 0% 62%  
12 0% 62%  
13 0% 62%  
14 0% 62%  
15 7% 62%  
16 22% 54% Median
17 16% 32%  
18 9% 16%  
19 4% 7%  
20 2% 3%  
21 0.7% 0.9%  
22 0.1% 0.2%  
23 0% 0.1%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0% Last Result

Kristdemokraterna

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristdemokraterna page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Median
1 0% 0%  
2 0% 0%  
3 0% 0%  
4 0% 0%  
5 0% 0%  
6 0% 0%  
7 0% 0%  
8 0% 0%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0%  
13 0% 0%  
14 0% 0%  
15 0% 0%  
16 0% 0% Last Result

Feministiskt initiativ

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Feministiskt initiativ page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet 197 175 50% 164–186 162–188 160–188 158–193
Sverigedemokraterna – Moderata samlingspartiet 133 155 0.4% 147–167 145–167 142–170 140–172
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna – Feministiskt initiativ 159 145 0% 135–155 132–158 131–158 127–162
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna 159 145 0% 135–155 132–158 131–158 127–162
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet 134 135 0% 126–142 124–145 122–145 119–149
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna – Kristdemokraterna 141 126 0% 114–135 110–136 110–137 107–140
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna 125 126 0% 114–135 110–136 110–137 107–140
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna 122 113 0% 106–119 103–121 103–123 101–126
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet 106 113 0% 106–119 103–121 103–123 101–126
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Miljöpartiet de gröna 138 110 0% 100–118 96–121 95–123 92–127

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
155 0% 100%  
156 0.1% 99.9%  
157 0.2% 99.8%  
158 0.4% 99.7%  
159 0.3% 99.2%  
160 2% 98.9%  
161 0.5% 97%  
162 2% 96%  
163 2% 94%  
164 3% 92%  
165 1.3% 89%  
166 3% 88%  
167 3% 84%  
168 8% 81%  
169 6% 74%  
170 2% 67%  
171 5% 65%  
172 4% 61%  
173 3% 57%  
174 4% 54% Median
175 6% 50% Majority
176 4% 45%  
177 5% 40%  
178 2% 35%  
179 6% 33%  
180 8% 27%  
181 3% 20%  
182 2% 17%  
183 2% 15%  
184 1.4% 13%  
185 1.0% 11%  
186 2% 10%  
187 0.2% 8%  
188 6% 8%  
189 0.2% 2%  
190 0.3% 1.4%  
191 0.4% 1.1%  
192 0.2% 0.8%  
193 0.1% 0.6%  
194 0.1% 0.5%  
195 0.1% 0.4%  
196 0.3% 0.3%  
197 0% 0.1% Last Result
198 0% 0.1%  
199 0% 0%  

Sverigedemokraterna – Moderata samlingspartiet

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
133 0% 100% Last Result
134 0% 100%  
135 0% 100%  
136 0% 100%  
137 0% 100%  
138 0.1% 99.9%  
139 0.3% 99.8%  
140 0.3% 99.6%  
141 1.1% 99.3%  
142 0.7% 98%  
143 0.7% 97%  
144 1.3% 97%  
145 3% 96%  
146 1.4% 93%  
147 2% 92%  
148 4% 89%  
149 6% 85%  
150 3% 80%  
151 6% 77%  
152 7% 71%  
153 5% 64%  
154 5% 59%  
155 10% 54% Median
156 4% 44%  
157 3% 40%  
158 9% 37%  
159 6% 28%  
160 2% 23%  
161 2% 20%  
162 3% 19%  
163 2% 15%  
164 0.8% 13%  
165 0.6% 12%  
166 2% 12%  
167 6% 10%  
168 0.6% 4%  
169 0.4% 4%  
170 1.5% 3%  
171 1.0% 2%  
172 0.2% 0.7%  
173 0% 0.5%  
174 0.1% 0.5%  
175 0.1% 0.4% Majority
176 0.2% 0.3%  
177 0% 0.1%  
178 0% 0%  

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna – Feministiskt initiativ

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
124 0.1% 100%  
125 0.1% 99.9%  
126 0.1% 99.7%  
127 0.2% 99.6%  
128 0.3% 99.4%  
129 0.8% 99.1%  
130 0.7% 98%  
131 0.8% 98%  
132 3% 97%  
133 1.2% 94%  
134 1.0% 93%  
135 7% 92%  
136 1.5% 85%  
137 6% 83%  
138 3% 77%  
139 4% 74%  
140 4% 70%  
141 2% 66%  
142 3% 64%  
143 2% 60%  
144 8% 58%  
145 8% 50%  
146 9% 42%  
147 2% 33%  
148 5% 31%  
149 2% 26%  
150 2% 24% Median
151 2% 22%  
152 4% 20%  
153 5% 17%  
154 1.1% 12%  
155 2% 11%  
156 3% 9%  
157 0.9% 6%  
158 3% 6%  
159 0.2% 2% Last Result
160 0.9% 2%  
161 0.1% 1.1%  
162 0.7% 1.0%  
163 0.2% 0.3%  
164 0.1% 0.2%  
165 0% 0.1%  
166 0.1% 0.1%  
167 0% 0%  

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
124 0.1% 100%  
125 0.1% 99.9%  
126 0.1% 99.7%  
127 0.2% 99.6%  
128 0.3% 99.4%  
129 0.8% 99.1%  
130 0.7% 98%  
131 0.8% 98%  
132 3% 97%  
133 1.2% 94%  
134 1.0% 93%  
135 7% 92%  
136 1.5% 85%  
137 6% 83%  
138 3% 77%  
139 4% 74%  
140 4% 70%  
141 2% 66%  
142 3% 64%  
143 2% 60%  
144 8% 58%  
145 8% 50%  
146 9% 42%  
147 2% 33%  
148 5% 31%  
149 2% 26%  
150 2% 24% Median
151 2% 22%  
152 4% 20%  
153 5% 17%  
154 1.1% 12%  
155 2% 11%  
156 3% 9%  
157 0.9% 6%  
158 3% 6%  
159 0.2% 2% Last Result
160 0.9% 2%  
161 0.1% 1.1%  
162 0.7% 1.0%  
163 0.2% 0.3%  
164 0.1% 0.2%  
165 0% 0.1%  
166 0.1% 0.1%  
167 0% 0%  

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
116 0% 100%  
117 0.1% 99.9%  
118 0.1% 99.8%  
119 0.3% 99.7%  
120 0.5% 99.5%  
121 1.2% 99.0%  
122 0.7% 98%  
123 2% 97%  
124 1.3% 95%  
125 3% 94%  
126 5% 91%  
127 2% 86%  
128 7% 84%  
129 7% 77%  
130 5% 70%  
131 3% 65%  
132 5% 62%  
133 4% 57%  
134 3% 53% Last Result, Median
135 11% 50%  
136 4% 40%  
137 8% 36%  
138 4% 28%  
139 4% 24%  
140 6% 20%  
141 1.1% 14%  
142 3% 13%  
143 1.2% 10%  
144 0.8% 9%  
145 6% 8%  
146 0.9% 2%  
147 0.2% 0.9%  
148 0.2% 0.7%  
149 0.2% 0.5%  
150 0.1% 0.3%  
151 0% 0.2%  
152 0.1% 0.2%  
153 0% 0.1%  
154 0% 0.1%  
155 0.1% 0.1%  
156 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna – Kristdemokraterna

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
104 0% 100%  
105 0.1% 99.9%  
106 0.3% 99.9%  
107 0.2% 99.5%  
108 0.4% 99.3%  
109 0.7% 98.9%  
110 3% 98%  
111 1.0% 95%  
112 3% 94%  
113 0.8% 91%  
114 2% 91%  
115 3% 89%  
116 6% 86%  
117 2% 80%  
118 4% 78%  
119 3% 74%  
120 4% 71%  
121 2% 68%  
122 2% 66%  
123 6% 63%  
124 3% 58%  
125 3% 55%  
126 4% 52%  
127 6% 47%  
128 4% 41% Median
129 7% 38%  
130 4% 30%  
131 4% 27%  
132 3% 23%  
133 7% 20%  
134 3% 14%  
135 2% 10%  
136 5% 8%  
137 0.8% 3%  
138 1.3% 2%  
139 0.6% 1.2%  
140 0.2% 0.6%  
141 0.1% 0.4% Last Result
142 0.1% 0.3%  
143 0.1% 0.2%  
144 0.1% 0.1%  
145 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
104 0% 100%  
105 0.1% 99.9%  
106 0.3% 99.9%  
107 0.2% 99.5%  
108 0.4% 99.3%  
109 0.7% 98.9%  
110 3% 98%  
111 1.0% 95%  
112 3% 94%  
113 0.8% 91%  
114 2% 91%  
115 3% 89%  
116 6% 86%  
117 2% 80%  
118 4% 78%  
119 3% 74%  
120 4% 71%  
121 2% 68%  
122 2% 66%  
123 6% 63%  
124 3% 58%  
125 3% 55% Last Result
126 4% 52%  
127 6% 47%  
128 4% 41% Median
129 7% 38%  
130 4% 30%  
131 4% 27%  
132 3% 23%  
133 7% 20%  
134 3% 14%  
135 2% 10%  
136 5% 8%  
137 0.8% 3%  
138 1.3% 2%  
139 0.6% 1.2%  
140 0.2% 0.6%  
141 0.1% 0.4%  
142 0.1% 0.3%  
143 0.1% 0.2%  
144 0.1% 0.1%  
145 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 99.9%  
99 0.1% 99.9%  
100 0.1% 99.8%  
101 0.3% 99.7%  
102 2% 99.4%  
103 4% 98%  
104 1.3% 93%  
105 1.4% 92%  
106 7% 91%  
107 3% 84%  
108 2% 82%  
109 3% 80%  
110 11% 76%  
111 8% 65%  
112 5% 57% Median
113 4% 52%  
114 7% 48%  
115 5% 41%  
116 8% 36%  
117 8% 28%  
118 6% 20%  
119 7% 14%  
120 2% 8%  
121 2% 5%  
122 0.4% 4% Last Result
123 1.4% 3%  
124 0.5% 2%  
125 0.6% 1.3%  
126 0.3% 0.7%  
127 0.1% 0.5%  
128 0.1% 0.4%  
129 0.2% 0.3%  
130 0% 0.1%  
131 0% 0.1%  
132 0% 0.1%  
133 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 99.9%  
99 0.1% 99.9%  
100 0.1% 99.8%  
101 0.3% 99.7%  
102 2% 99.4%  
103 4% 98%  
104 1.3% 93%  
105 1.4% 92%  
106 7% 91% Last Result
107 3% 84%  
108 2% 82%  
109 3% 80%  
110 11% 76%  
111 8% 65%  
112 5% 57% Median
113 4% 52%  
114 7% 48%  
115 5% 41%  
116 8% 36%  
117 8% 28%  
118 6% 20%  
119 7% 14%  
120 2% 8%  
121 2% 5%  
122 0.4% 4%  
123 1.4% 3%  
124 0.5% 2%  
125 0.6% 1.3%  
126 0.3% 0.7%  
127 0.1% 0.5%  
128 0.1% 0.4%  
129 0.2% 0.3%  
130 0% 0.1%  
131 0% 0.1%  
132 0% 0.1%  
133 0% 0%  

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Miljöpartiet de gröna

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 99.9%  
91 0.4% 99.9%  
92 0.4% 99.5%  
93 0.3% 99.2%  
94 0.8% 98.9%  
95 1.1% 98%  
96 2% 97%  
97 0.8% 95%  
98 1.1% 94%  
99 2% 93%  
100 7% 91%  
101 1.1% 84%  
102 3% 83%  
103 7% 80%  
104 3% 73%  
105 1.5% 70%  
106 3% 68%  
107 2% 66%  
108 2% 63%  
109 10% 61%  
110 3% 51%  
111 7% 49%  
112 7% 42%  
113 4% 34%  
114 4% 30%  
115 5% 26% Median
116 3% 22%  
117 6% 19%  
118 3% 13%  
119 1.5% 10%  
120 3% 8%  
121 1.1% 5%  
122 0.6% 4%  
123 1.1% 3%  
124 0.4% 2%  
125 1.0% 2%  
126 0.2% 0.8%  
127 0.3% 0.6%  
128 0.2% 0.3%  
129 0.1% 0.1%  
130 0% 0%  
131 0% 0%  
132 0% 0%  
133 0% 0%  
134 0% 0%  
135 0% 0%  
136 0% 0%  
137 0% 0%  
138 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations