Opinion Poll by Novus for SVT, 25 June–22 July 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti 31.0% 23.7% 22.9–24.5% 22.7–24.7% 22.5–24.9% 22.1–25.3%
Sverigedemokraterna 12.9% 21.6% 20.9–22.4% 20.7–22.6% 20.5–22.8% 20.1–23.2%
Moderata samlingspartiet 23.3% 19.6% 18.9–20.3% 18.7–20.6% 18.5–20.7% 18.2–21.1%
Vänsterpartiet 5.7% 10.1% 9.6–10.7% 9.4–10.9% 9.3–11.0% 9.0–11.3%
Centerpartiet 6.1% 8.4% 7.9–8.9% 7.8–9.1% 7.7–9.2% 7.4–9.5%
Miljöpartiet de gröna 6.9% 5.7% 5.3–6.2% 5.2–6.3% 5.1–6.4% 4.9–6.6%
Liberalerna 5.4% 5.0% 4.6–5.4% 4.5–5.5% 4.4–5.7% 4.2–5.9%
Kristdemokraterna 4.6% 3.2% 2.9–3.6% 2.8–3.7% 2.7–3.7% 2.6–3.9%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti 113 88 85–90 84–91 83–92 82–94
Sverigedemokraterna 49 80 77–83 76–84 76–84 74–86
Moderata samlingspartiet 84 72 70–75 69–76 69–77 67–78
Vänsterpartiet 21 38 35–40 35–40 35–41 34–42
Centerpartiet 22 31 29–33 29–34 28–34 27–35
Miljöpartiet de gröna 25 21 19–23 19–23 19–24 18–24
Liberalerna 19 18 17–20 17–20 16–21 16–22
Kristdemokraterna 16 0 0 0 0 0

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
80 0% 100%  
81 0.2% 99.9%  
82 0.6% 99.8%  
83 2% 99.2%  
84 5% 97%  
85 6% 92%  
86 7% 86%  
87 16% 79%  
88 27% 63% Median
89 17% 36%  
90 10% 19%  
91 5% 9%  
92 2% 4%  
93 2% 2%  
94 0.5% 0.7%  
95 0.2% 0.2%  
96 0% 0%  
97 0% 0%  
98 0% 0%  
99 0% 0%  
100 0% 0%  
101 0% 0%  
102 0% 0%  
103 0% 0%  
104 0% 0%  
105 0% 0%  
106 0% 0%  
107 0% 0%  
108 0% 0%  
109 0% 0%  
110 0% 0%  
111 0% 0%  
112 0% 0%  
113 0% 0% Last Result

Sverigedemokraterna

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sverigedemokraterna page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0% 100% Last Result
50 0% 100%  
51 0% 100%  
52 0% 100%  
53 0% 100%  
54 0% 100%  
55 0% 100%  
56 0% 100%  
57 0% 100%  
58 0% 100%  
59 0% 100%  
60 0% 100%  
61 0% 100%  
62 0% 100%  
63 0% 100%  
64 0% 100%  
65 0% 100%  
66 0% 100%  
67 0% 100%  
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0.1% 100%  
74 0.5% 99.9%  
75 1.2% 99.4%  
76 4% 98%  
77 7% 95%  
78 15% 88%  
79 11% 73%  
80 23% 62% Median
81 12% 38%  
82 12% 26%  
83 5% 14%  
84 6% 8%  
85 1.5% 2%  
86 0.6% 0.9%  
87 0.2% 0.2%  
88 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Moderata samlingspartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
66 0.1% 100%  
67 0.6% 99.9%  
68 2% 99.3%  
69 4% 98%  
70 9% 94%  
71 19% 85%  
72 17% 66% Median
73 17% 49%  
74 15% 32%  
75 9% 17%  
76 5% 8%  
77 2% 3%  
78 0.7% 1.1%  
79 0.3% 0.4%  
80 0.1% 0.1%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0% Last Result

Vänsterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vänsterpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0% 100% Last Result
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0% 100%  
28 0% 100%  
29 0% 100%  
30 0% 100%  
31 0% 100%  
32 0.1% 100%  
33 0.4% 99.9%  
34 2% 99.5%  
35 8% 98%  
36 18% 90%  
37 18% 71%  
38 30% 53% Median
39 12% 23%  
40 7% 11%  
41 3% 3%  
42 0.5% 0.7%  
43 0.1% 0.1%  
44 0% 0%  

Centerpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Centerpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0% 100% Last Result
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0.5% 100%  
28 2% 99.5%  
29 8% 97%  
30 21% 90%  
31 20% 69% Median
32 27% 49%  
33 16% 21%  
34 3% 5%  
35 2% 2%  
36 0.3% 0.3%  
37 0% 0%  

Miljöpartiet de gröna

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljöpartiet de gröna page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0.1% 100%  
18 1.1% 99.9%  
19 11% 98.9%  
20 19% 87%  
21 19% 68% Median
22 32% 49%  
23 14% 17%  
24 3% 3%  
25 0.3% 0.3% Last Result
26 0.1% 0.1%  
27 0% 0%  

Liberalerna

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberalerna page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.2% 100%  
16 4% 99.7%  
17 15% 96%  
18 32% 81% Median
19 31% 49% Last Result
20 14% 18%  
21 4% 4%  
22 0.6% 0.7%  
23 0.1% 0.1%  
24 0% 0%  

Kristdemokraterna

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristdemokraterna page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.8% 100% Median
1 0% 0.2%  
2 0% 0.2%  
3 0% 0.2%  
4 0% 0.2%  
5 0% 0.2%  
6 0% 0.2%  
7 0% 0.2%  
8 0% 0.2%  
9 0% 0.2%  
10 0% 0.2%  
11 0% 0.2%  
12 0% 0.2%  
13 0% 0.2%  
14 0.1% 0.2%  
15 0.1% 0.1%  
16 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet 197 160 0% 157–164 156–165 155–166 154–167
Sverigedemokraterna – Moderata samlingspartiet 133 152 0% 150–156 148–157 147–158 146–160
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna 159 147 0% 143–150 142–151 141–152 140–153
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet 134 126 0% 122–128 121–129 121–131 119–132
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna – Kristdemokraterna 141 122 0% 120–125 118–126 118–128 116–129
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna 125 122 0% 120–125 118–126 117–127 116–129
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Miljöpartiet de gröna 138 110 0% 106–112 105–113 104–114 103–116
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna 122 104 0% 101–107 100–108 99–109 98–110
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet 106 104 0% 101–107 100–108 99–109 98–110

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
151 0% 100%  
152 0.1% 99.9%  
153 0.3% 99.8%  
154 0.7% 99.6%  
155 1.5% 98.9%  
156 4% 97%  
157 6% 94%  
158 9% 88%  
159 15% 79%  
160 16% 63% Median
161 15% 48%  
162 14% 33%  
163 8% 18%  
164 5% 11%  
165 3% 5%  
166 1.3% 3%  
167 0.8% 1.2%  
168 0.3% 0.4%  
169 0.1% 0.1%  
170 0% 0%  
171 0% 0%  
172 0% 0%  
173 0% 0%  
174 0% 0%  
175 0% 0% Majority
176 0% 0%  
177 0% 0%  
178 0% 0%  
179 0% 0%  
180 0% 0%  
181 0% 0%  
182 0% 0%  
183 0% 0%  
184 0% 0%  
185 0% 0%  
186 0% 0%  
187 0% 0%  
188 0% 0%  
189 0% 0%  
190 0% 0%  
191 0% 0%  
192 0% 0%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0% Last Result

Sverigedemokraterna – Moderata samlingspartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
133 0% 100% Last Result
134 0% 100%  
135 0% 100%  
136 0% 100%  
137 0% 100%  
138 0% 100%  
139 0% 100%  
140 0% 100%  
141 0% 100%  
142 0% 100%  
143 0% 100%  
144 0.1% 100%  
145 0.3% 99.9%  
146 0.7% 99.6%  
147 1.4% 98.8%  
148 3% 97%  
149 4% 94%  
150 9% 90%  
151 19% 81%  
152 14% 62% Median
153 13% 48%  
154 12% 35%  
155 8% 22%  
156 7% 14%  
157 4% 8%  
158 3% 4%  
159 0.8% 1.3%  
160 0.3% 0.6%  
161 0.2% 0.2%  
162 0.1% 0.1%  
163 0% 0%  

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
138 0.1% 100%  
139 0.2% 99.8%  
140 1.0% 99.6%  
141 2% 98.6%  
142 4% 97%  
143 5% 93%  
144 8% 88%  
145 15% 80%  
146 14% 66%  
147 14% 52% Median
148 16% 38%  
149 8% 22%  
150 7% 14%  
151 3% 6%  
152 2% 3%  
153 1.2% 2%  
154 0.2% 0.3%  
155 0.1% 0.1%  
156 0% 0%  
157 0% 0%  
158 0% 0%  
159 0% 0% Last Result

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
117 0.1% 100%  
118 0.2% 99.9%  
119 0.7% 99.7%  
120 1.5% 99.0%  
121 3% 98%  
122 5% 94%  
123 10% 89%  
124 16% 78%  
125 12% 63%  
126 21% 51% Median
127 12% 30%  
128 8% 17%  
129 5% 9%  
130 2% 5%  
131 2% 3%  
132 0.7% 0.9%  
133 0.2% 0.2%  
134 0% 0.1% Last Result
135 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna – Kristdemokraterna

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
113 0% 100%  
114 0% 99.9%  
115 0.2% 99.9%  
116 0.9% 99.7%  
117 1.3% 98.8%  
118 3% 98%  
119 4% 95%  
120 14% 90%  
121 17% 76% Median
122 12% 59%  
123 13% 47%  
124 15% 35%  
125 11% 20%  
126 4% 9%  
127 2% 5%  
128 2% 3%  
129 0.8% 1.1%  
130 0.2% 0.4%  
131 0.1% 0.2%  
132 0% 0.1%  
133 0% 0.1%  
134 0% 0%  
135 0% 0%  
136 0% 0%  
137 0% 0%  
138 0% 0%  
139 0% 0%  
140 0% 0%  
141 0% 0% Last Result

Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
113 0% 100%  
114 0.1% 99.9%  
115 0.2% 99.9%  
116 1.0% 99.7%  
117 1.3% 98.7%  
118 3% 97%  
119 4% 94%  
120 14% 90%  
121 17% 76% Median
122 12% 59%  
123 13% 47%  
124 15% 34%  
125 11% 20% Last Result
126 4% 8%  
127 2% 5%  
128 2% 2%  
129 0.8% 1.0%  
130 0.1% 0.2%  
131 0% 0.1%  
132 0% 0%  

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Miljöpartiet de gröna

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
101 0.1% 100%  
102 0.3% 99.9%  
103 0.8% 99.6%  
104 3% 98.8%  
105 3% 96%  
106 7% 93%  
107 10% 86%  
108 11% 75%  
109 13% 64% Median
110 27% 51%  
111 11% 24%  
112 8% 13%  
113 2% 6%  
114 1.4% 3%  
115 1.1% 2%  
116 0.4% 0.5%  
117 0.1% 0.1%  
118 0% 0%  
119 0% 0%  
120 0% 0%  
121 0% 0%  
122 0% 0%  
123 0% 0%  
124 0% 0%  
125 0% 0%  
126 0% 0%  
127 0% 0%  
128 0% 0%  
129 0% 0%  
130 0% 0%  
131 0% 0%  
132 0% 0%  
133 0% 0%  
134 0% 0%  
135 0% 0%  
136 0% 0%  
137 0% 0%  
138 0% 0% Last Result

Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
96 0.1% 100%  
97 0.2% 99.9%  
98 1.3% 99.7%  
99 2% 98%  
100 4% 96%  
101 9% 92%  
102 10% 83%  
103 18% 73% Median
104 16% 55%  
105 12% 39%  
106 16% 27%  
107 5% 11%  
108 4% 7%  
109 2% 3%  
110 0.5% 1.0%  
111 0.2% 0.5%  
112 0.1% 0.3%  
113 0% 0.2%  
114 0.1% 0.1%  
115 0% 0.1%  
116 0% 0%  
117 0% 0%  
118 0% 0%  
119 0% 0%  
120 0% 0%  
121 0% 0%  
122 0% 0% Last Result

Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
96 0.1% 100%  
97 0.2% 99.9%  
98 1.4% 99.7%  
99 2% 98%  
100 4% 96%  
101 9% 92%  
102 10% 83%  
103 18% 73% Median
104 16% 55%  
105 12% 39%  
106 16% 27% Last Result
107 5% 11%  
108 4% 7%  
109 2% 3%  
110 0.5% 0.8%  
111 0.2% 0.3%  
112 0.1% 0.1%  
113 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations