Opinion Poll by Inizio for Aftonbladet, 25 July–2 August 2018
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti | 31.0% | 24.9% | 23.8–26.1% | 23.5–26.4% | 23.2–26.7% | 22.6–27.3% |
| Moderata samlingspartiet | 23.3% | 20.4% | 19.4–21.6% | 19.1–21.9% | 18.8–22.1% | 18.3–22.7% |
| Sverigedemokraterna | 12.9% | 19.0% | 18.0–20.1% | 17.7–20.4% | 17.4–20.7% | 17.0–21.2% |
| Centerpartiet | 6.1% | 9.5% | 8.7–10.3% | 8.5–10.6% | 8.4–10.8% | 8.0–11.2% |
| Vänsterpartiet | 5.7% | 8.7% | 8.0–9.5% | 7.8–9.8% | 7.6–10.0% | 7.3–10.3% |
| Miljöpartiet de gröna | 6.9% | 4.8% | 4.3–5.4% | 4.1–5.6% | 4.0–5.7% | 3.7–6.1% |
| Kristdemokraterna | 4.6% | 4.8% | 4.3–5.4% | 4.1–5.6% | 4.0–5.7% | 3.7–6.1% |
| Liberalerna | 5.4% | 4.4% | 3.9–5.0% | 3.7–5.2% | 3.6–5.3% | 3.4–5.6% |
| Feministiskt initiativ | 3.1% | 1.5% | 1.2–1.9% | 1.1–2.0% | 1.1–2.1% | 0.9–2.3% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti | 113 | 90 | 86–95 | 85–97 | 84–99 | 82–102 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet | 84 | 74 | 70–79 | 69–80 | 68–81 | 66–84 |
| Sverigedemokraterna | 49 | 69 | 65–73 | 64–74 | 63–77 | 61–79 |
| Centerpartiet | 22 | 35 | 32–38 | 31–39 | 31–39 | 29–41 |
| Vänsterpartiet | 21 | 32 | 29–35 | 28–35 | 28–37 | 27–38 |
| Miljöpartiet de gröna | 25 | 18 | 15–20 | 15–20 | 14–21 | 0–22 |
| Kristdemokraterna | 16 | 18 | 15–20 | 15–20 | 0–21 | 0–22 |
| Liberalerna | 19 | 16 | 0–18 | 0–19 | 0–19 | 0–21 |
| Feministiskt initiativ | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 80 | 0% | 100% | |
| 81 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 82 | 0.9% | 99.7% | |
| 83 | 0.9% | 98.9% | |
| 84 | 2% | 98% | |
| 85 | 4% | 96% | |
| 86 | 3% | 92% | |
| 87 | 15% | 89% | |
| 88 | 12% | 74% | |
| 89 | 5% | 62% | |
| 90 | 8% | 57% | Median |
| 91 | 11% | 49% | |
| 92 | 10% | 38% | |
| 93 | 8% | 29% | |
| 94 | 3% | 21% | |
| 95 | 7% | 17% | |
| 96 | 5% | 10% | |
| 97 | 1.4% | 5% | |
| 98 | 1.3% | 4% | |
| 99 | 1.1% | 3% | |
| 100 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 101 | 0.5% | 1.1% | |
| 102 | 0.1% | 0.6% | |
| 103 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 104 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 105 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 106 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 107 | 0% | 0% | |
| 108 | 0% | 0% | |
| 109 | 0% | 0% | |
| 110 | 0% | 0% | |
| 111 | 0% | 0% | |
| 112 | 0% | 0% | |
| 113 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Moderata samlingspartiet
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Moderata samlingspartiet page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 64 | 0% | 100% | |
| 65 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 66 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 67 | 0.6% | 99.5% | |
| 68 | 3% | 98.9% | |
| 69 | 4% | 96% | |
| 70 | 4% | 91% | |
| 71 | 5% | 87% | |
| 72 | 4% | 82% | |
| 73 | 8% | 78% | |
| 74 | 22% | 70% | Median |
| 75 | 17% | 48% | |
| 76 | 6% | 32% | |
| 77 | 8% | 25% | |
| 78 | 7% | 18% | |
| 79 | 4% | 11% | |
| 80 | 3% | 7% | |
| 81 | 2% | 4% | |
| 82 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 83 | 0.5% | 1.1% | |
| 84 | 0.4% | 0.6% | Last Result |
| 85 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 86 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 87 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 88 | 0% | 0% |
Sverigedemokraterna
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sverigedemokraterna page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 49 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 50 | 0% | 100% | |
| 51 | 0% | 100% | |
| 52 | 0% | 100% | |
| 53 | 0% | 100% | |
| 54 | 0% | 100% | |
| 55 | 0% | 100% | |
| 56 | 0% | 100% | |
| 57 | 0% | 100% | |
| 58 | 0% | 100% | |
| 59 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 60 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 61 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 62 | 0.6% | 99.4% | |
| 63 | 2% | 98.8% | |
| 64 | 3% | 97% | |
| 65 | 6% | 94% | |
| 66 | 14% | 89% | |
| 67 | 6% | 74% | |
| 68 | 14% | 68% | |
| 69 | 6% | 53% | Median |
| 70 | 14% | 47% | |
| 71 | 8% | 33% | |
| 72 | 13% | 26% | |
| 73 | 5% | 12% | |
| 74 | 3% | 7% | |
| 75 | 2% | 5% | |
| 76 | 0.6% | 3% | |
| 77 | 2% | 3% | |
| 78 | 0.4% | 1.0% | |
| 79 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 80 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 81 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 82 | 0% | 0% |
Centerpartiet
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Centerpartiet page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 23 | 0% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0% | 100% | |
| 26 | 0% | 100% | |
| 27 | 0% | 100% | |
| 28 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 29 | 0.5% | 99.7% | |
| 30 | 1.4% | 99.2% | |
| 31 | 7% | 98% | |
| 32 | 5% | 91% | |
| 33 | 18% | 86% | |
| 34 | 15% | 68% | |
| 35 | 18% | 53% | Median |
| 36 | 14% | 34% | |
| 37 | 9% | 21% | |
| 38 | 6% | 11% | |
| 39 | 3% | 6% | |
| 40 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 41 | 0.6% | 1.0% | |
| 42 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 43 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 44 | 0% | 0% |
Vänsterpartiet
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vänsterpartiet page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 22 | 0% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 26 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 27 | 1.2% | 99.5% | |
| 28 | 5% | 98% | |
| 29 | 8% | 93% | |
| 30 | 17% | 84% | |
| 31 | 14% | 67% | |
| 32 | 18% | 53% | Median |
| 33 | 11% | 35% | |
| 34 | 12% | 24% | |
| 35 | 6% | 11% | |
| 36 | 2% | 5% | |
| 37 | 2% | 3% | |
| 38 | 0.7% | 1.0% | |
| 39 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 40 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 41 | 0% | 0% |
Miljöpartiet de gröna
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljöpartiet de gröna page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2% | 100% | |
| 1 | 0% | 98% | |
| 2 | 0% | 98% | |
| 3 | 0% | 98% | |
| 4 | 0% | 98% | |
| 5 | 0% | 98% | |
| 6 | 0% | 98% | |
| 7 | 0% | 98% | |
| 8 | 0% | 98% | |
| 9 | 0% | 98% | |
| 10 | 0% | 98% | |
| 11 | 0% | 98% | |
| 12 | 0% | 98% | |
| 13 | 0% | 98% | |
| 14 | 0.7% | 98% | |
| 15 | 8% | 97% | |
| 16 | 19% | 89% | |
| 17 | 19% | 71% | |
| 18 | 21% | 52% | Median |
| 19 | 12% | 30% | |
| 20 | 14% | 18% | |
| 21 | 3% | 4% | |
| 22 | 0.8% | 1.1% | |
| 23 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 24 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Kristdemokraterna
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristdemokraterna page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4% | 100% | |
| 1 | 0% | 96% | |
| 2 | 0% | 96% | |
| 3 | 0% | 96% | |
| 4 | 0% | 96% | |
| 5 | 0% | 96% | |
| 6 | 0% | 96% | |
| 7 | 0% | 96% | |
| 8 | 0% | 96% | |
| 9 | 0% | 96% | |
| 10 | 0% | 96% | |
| 11 | 0% | 96% | |
| 12 | 0% | 96% | |
| 13 | 0% | 96% | |
| 14 | 0.1% | 96% | |
| 15 | 6% | 96% | |
| 16 | 22% | 90% | Last Result |
| 17 | 17% | 68% | |
| 18 | 24% | 51% | Median |
| 19 | 13% | 27% | |
| 20 | 10% | 14% | |
| 21 | 3% | 4% | |
| 22 | 0.8% | 1.0% | |
| 23 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 24 | 0% | 0% |
Liberalerna
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberalerna page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15% | 100% | |
| 1 | 0% | 85% | |
| 2 | 0% | 85% | |
| 3 | 0% | 85% | |
| 4 | 0% | 85% | |
| 5 | 0% | 85% | |
| 6 | 0% | 85% | |
| 7 | 0% | 85% | |
| 8 | 0% | 85% | |
| 9 | 0% | 85% | |
| 10 | 0% | 85% | |
| 11 | 0% | 85% | |
| 12 | 0% | 85% | |
| 13 | 0% | 85% | |
| 14 | 0.5% | 85% | |
| 15 | 20% | 85% | |
| 16 | 23% | 65% | Median |
| 17 | 23% | 42% | |
| 18 | 12% | 19% | |
| 19 | 5% | 7% | Last Result |
| 20 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 21 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 22 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 23 | 0% | 0% |
Feministiskt initiativ
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Feministiskt initiativ page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet | 197 | 165 | 4% | 159–171 | 158–173 | 157–177 | 154–181 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Sverigedemokraterna | 133 | 143 | 0% | 138–150 | 136–152 | 135–154 | 133–158 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna – Feministiskt initiativ | 159 | 139 | 0% | 133–147 | 132–148 | 131–150 | 125–154 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna | 159 | 139 | 0% | 133–147 | 132–148 | 131–150 | 125–154 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna – Liberalerna | 141 | 142 | 0% | 132–146 | 129–148 | 128–150 | 123–152 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna | 122 | 127 | 0% | 119–131 | 118–134 | 116–135 | 113–139 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna | 125 | 125 | 0% | 115–129 | 110–131 | 109–133 | 107–136 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet | 134 | 122 | 0% | 117–128 | 116–130 | 114–132 | 112–136 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet | 106 | 109 | 0% | 103–114 | 102–116 | 102–118 | 100–121 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Miljöpartiet de gröna | 138 | 108 | 0% | 103–113 | 101–116 | 99–117 | 91–120 |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 152 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 153 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 154 | 0.5% | 99.6% | |
| 155 | 0.5% | 99.2% | |
| 156 | 1.0% | 98.7% | |
| 157 | 1.4% | 98% | |
| 158 | 3% | 96% | |
| 159 | 5% | 93% | |
| 160 | 4% | 88% | |
| 161 | 2% | 84% | |
| 162 | 17% | 82% | |
| 163 | 8% | 65% | |
| 164 | 4% | 57% | Median |
| 165 | 14% | 53% | |
| 166 | 9% | 39% | |
| 167 | 3% | 31% | |
| 168 | 5% | 27% | |
| 169 | 7% | 22% | |
| 170 | 4% | 15% | |
| 171 | 2% | 11% | |
| 172 | 3% | 10% | |
| 173 | 2% | 7% | |
| 174 | 0.9% | 4% | |
| 175 | 0.4% | 4% | Majority |
| 176 | 0.3% | 3% | |
| 177 | 0.7% | 3% | |
| 178 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 179 | 0.3% | 1.3% | |
| 180 | 0.4% | 1.0% | |
| 181 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 182 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 183 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 184 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 185 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 186 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 187 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 188 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 189 | 0% | 0% | |
| 190 | 0% | 0% | |
| 191 | 0% | 0% | |
| 192 | 0% | 0% | |
| 193 | 0% | 0% | |
| 194 | 0% | 0% | |
| 195 | 0% | 0% | |
| 196 | 0% | 0% | |
| 197 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Sverigedemokraterna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 130 | 0% | 100% | |
| 131 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 132 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 133 | 0.6% | 99.7% | Last Result |
| 134 | 0.4% | 99.2% | |
| 135 | 1.4% | 98.7% | |
| 136 | 3% | 97% | |
| 137 | 3% | 94% | |
| 138 | 3% | 92% | |
| 139 | 6% | 89% | |
| 140 | 12% | 83% | |
| 141 | 7% | 71% | |
| 142 | 8% | 64% | |
| 143 | 11% | 55% | Median |
| 144 | 5% | 45% | |
| 145 | 9% | 39% | |
| 146 | 4% | 30% | |
| 147 | 7% | 26% | |
| 148 | 2% | 20% | |
| 149 | 2% | 17% | |
| 150 | 5% | 15% | |
| 151 | 2% | 9% | |
| 152 | 3% | 7% | |
| 153 | 1.0% | 4% | |
| 154 | 2% | 3% | |
| 155 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 156 | 0.3% | 1.2% | |
| 157 | 0.4% | 0.9% | |
| 158 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 159 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 160 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 161 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 162 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 163 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 164 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna – Feministiskt initiativ
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 121 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 122 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 123 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 124 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 125 | 0.4% | 99.7% | |
| 126 | 0.4% | 99.3% | |
| 127 | 0.1% | 99.0% | |
| 128 | 0.1% | 98.9% | |
| 129 | 0.1% | 98.8% | |
| 130 | 0.7% | 98.7% | |
| 131 | 1.5% | 98% | |
| 132 | 3% | 97% | |
| 133 | 6% | 94% | |
| 134 | 4% | 88% | |
| 135 | 3% | 85% | |
| 136 | 4% | 82% | |
| 137 | 11% | 78% | |
| 138 | 11% | 67% | |
| 139 | 6% | 56% | |
| 140 | 12% | 50% | Median |
| 141 | 9% | 38% | |
| 142 | 5% | 29% | |
| 143 | 7% | 24% | |
| 144 | 4% | 17% | |
| 145 | 0.7% | 13% | |
| 146 | 2% | 12% | |
| 147 | 3% | 11% | |
| 148 | 4% | 8% | |
| 149 | 0.8% | 4% | |
| 150 | 1.2% | 3% | |
| 151 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 152 | 0.4% | 1.1% | |
| 153 | 0.2% | 0.8% | |
| 154 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 155 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 156 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 157 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 158 | 0% | 0% | |
| 159 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 121 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 122 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 123 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 124 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 125 | 0.4% | 99.7% | |
| 126 | 0.4% | 99.3% | |
| 127 | 0.1% | 99.0% | |
| 128 | 0.1% | 98.9% | |
| 129 | 0.1% | 98.8% | |
| 130 | 0.7% | 98.7% | |
| 131 | 1.5% | 98% | |
| 132 | 3% | 97% | |
| 133 | 6% | 94% | |
| 134 | 4% | 88% | |
| 135 | 3% | 85% | |
| 136 | 4% | 82% | |
| 137 | 11% | 78% | |
| 138 | 11% | 67% | |
| 139 | 6% | 56% | |
| 140 | 12% | 50% | Median |
| 141 | 9% | 38% | |
| 142 | 5% | 29% | |
| 143 | 7% | 24% | |
| 144 | 4% | 17% | |
| 145 | 0.7% | 13% | |
| 146 | 2% | 12% | |
| 147 | 3% | 11% | |
| 148 | 4% | 8% | |
| 149 | 0.8% | 4% | |
| 150 | 1.2% | 3% | |
| 151 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 152 | 0.4% | 1.1% | |
| 153 | 0.2% | 0.8% | |
| 154 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 155 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 156 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 157 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 158 | 0% | 0% | |
| 159 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna – Liberalerna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 114 | 0% | 100% | |
| 115 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 116 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 117 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 118 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 119 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 120 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 121 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 122 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 123 | 0.3% | 99.6% | |
| 124 | 0.3% | 99.4% | |
| 125 | 0.5% | 99.1% | |
| 126 | 0.6% | 98.6% | |
| 127 | 0.4% | 98% | |
| 128 | 1.4% | 98% | |
| 129 | 5% | 96% | |
| 130 | 0.5% | 92% | |
| 131 | 1.0% | 91% | |
| 132 | 2% | 90% | |
| 133 | 3% | 89% | |
| 134 | 2% | 86% | |
| 135 | 6% | 84% | |
| 136 | 2% | 78% | |
| 137 | 2% | 76% | |
| 138 | 3% | 75% | |
| 139 | 5% | 71% | |
| 140 | 8% | 66% | |
| 141 | 4% | 59% | Last Result |
| 142 | 8% | 55% | |
| 143 | 13% | 47% | Median |
| 144 | 12% | 34% | |
| 145 | 10% | 21% | |
| 146 | 3% | 11% | |
| 147 | 3% | 8% | |
| 148 | 0.9% | 5% | |
| 149 | 2% | 4% | |
| 150 | 1.2% | 3% | |
| 151 | 0.5% | 1.3% | |
| 152 | 0.5% | 0.9% | |
| 153 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 154 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 155 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 156 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 157 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 107 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 108 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 109 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 110 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 111 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 112 | 0.1% | 99.6% | |
| 113 | 0.2% | 99.6% | |
| 114 | 1.2% | 99.4% | |
| 115 | 0.6% | 98% | |
| 116 | 0.5% | 98% | |
| 117 | 0.2% | 97% | |
| 118 | 3% | 97% | |
| 119 | 4% | 94% | |
| 120 | 1.5% | 90% | |
| 121 | 2% | 88% | |
| 122 | 4% | 86% | Last Result |
| 123 | 4% | 82% | |
| 124 | 11% | 78% | |
| 125 | 5% | 67% | |
| 126 | 11% | 62% | |
| 127 | 10% | 52% | Median |
| 128 | 12% | 42% | |
| 129 | 12% | 29% | |
| 130 | 5% | 18% | |
| 131 | 3% | 13% | |
| 132 | 2% | 10% | |
| 133 | 3% | 8% | |
| 134 | 1.1% | 5% | |
| 135 | 2% | 4% | |
| 136 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 137 | 0.4% | 1.4% | |
| 138 | 0.2% | 1.0% | |
| 139 | 0.4% | 0.9% | |
| 140 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 141 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 142 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 143 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 104 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 105 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 106 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 107 | 0.4% | 99.6% | |
| 108 | 1.2% | 99.2% | |
| 109 | 2% | 98% | |
| 110 | 1.2% | 96% | |
| 111 | 0.3% | 94% | |
| 112 | 0.9% | 94% | |
| 113 | 2% | 93% | |
| 114 | 0.8% | 91% | |
| 115 | 1.3% | 90% | |
| 116 | 1.0% | 89% | |
| 117 | 2% | 88% | |
| 118 | 3% | 86% | |
| 119 | 5% | 83% | |
| 120 | 4% | 78% | |
| 121 | 2% | 74% | |
| 122 | 4% | 71% | |
| 123 | 4% | 67% | |
| 124 | 7% | 63% | |
| 125 | 18% | 56% | Last Result, Median |
| 126 | 8% | 38% | |
| 127 | 14% | 30% | |
| 128 | 2% | 16% | |
| 129 | 4% | 13% | |
| 130 | 2% | 9% | |
| 131 | 2% | 7% | |
| 132 | 0.7% | 4% | |
| 133 | 2% | 3% | |
| 134 | 0.3% | 1.3% | |
| 135 | 0.5% | 1.0% | |
| 136 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 137 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 138 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 139 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 140 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 110 | 0% | 100% | |
| 111 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 112 | 0.5% | 99.8% | |
| 113 | 0.6% | 99.3% | |
| 114 | 2% | 98.7% | |
| 115 | 2% | 97% | |
| 116 | 0.9% | 95% | |
| 117 | 9% | 94% | |
| 118 | 12% | 85% | |
| 119 | 7% | 74% | |
| 120 | 5% | 67% | |
| 121 | 7% | 62% | |
| 122 | 8% | 55% | Median |
| 123 | 8% | 46% | |
| 124 | 9% | 39% | |
| 125 | 9% | 30% | |
| 126 | 3% | 21% | |
| 127 | 7% | 18% | |
| 128 | 3% | 11% | |
| 129 | 1.3% | 8% | |
| 130 | 3% | 7% | |
| 131 | 0.8% | 4% | |
| 132 | 0.8% | 3% | |
| 133 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 134 | 0.4% | 2% | Last Result |
| 135 | 0.5% | 1.2% | |
| 136 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 137 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 138 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 139 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 140 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 141 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 97 | 0% | 100% | |
| 98 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 99 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 100 | 0.8% | 99.7% | |
| 101 | 1.3% | 98.8% | |
| 102 | 3% | 98% | |
| 103 | 5% | 94% | |
| 104 | 4% | 90% | |
| 105 | 3% | 86% | |
| 106 | 3% | 82% | Last Result |
| 107 | 5% | 79% | |
| 108 | 17% | 74% | |
| 109 | 13% | 56% | Median |
| 110 | 13% | 44% | |
| 111 | 3% | 31% | |
| 112 | 9% | 27% | |
| 113 | 4% | 19% | |
| 114 | 5% | 15% | |
| 115 | 2% | 9% | |
| 116 | 2% | 7% | |
| 117 | 1.3% | 5% | |
| 118 | 2% | 4% | |
| 119 | 0.2% | 2% | |
| 120 | 0.6% | 1.3% | |
| 121 | 0.3% | 0.7% | |
| 122 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 123 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 124 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 125 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 126 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Miljöpartiet de gröna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 89 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 90 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 91 | 0% | 99.5% | |
| 92 | 0.1% | 99.5% | |
| 93 | 0.1% | 99.3% | |
| 94 | 0.4% | 99.3% | |
| 95 | 0.1% | 98.9% | |
| 96 | 0.3% | 98.8% | |
| 97 | 0.1% | 98.6% | |
| 98 | 0.2% | 98% | |
| 99 | 0.8% | 98% | |
| 100 | 1.0% | 97% | |
| 101 | 2% | 96% | |
| 102 | 1.1% | 94% | |
| 103 | 10% | 93% | |
| 104 | 3% | 83% | |
| 105 | 10% | 80% | |
| 106 | 8% | 69% | |
| 107 | 10% | 61% | |
| 108 | 13% | 51% | Median |
| 109 | 7% | 39% | |
| 110 | 4% | 31% | |
| 111 | 8% | 28% | |
| 112 | 6% | 20% | |
| 113 | 5% | 14% | |
| 114 | 3% | 10% | |
| 115 | 1.2% | 7% | |
| 116 | 3% | 6% | |
| 117 | 0.9% | 3% | |
| 118 | 0.3% | 2% | |
| 119 | 0.8% | 1.5% | |
| 120 | 0.5% | 0.7% | |
| 121 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 122 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 123 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 124 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 125 | 0% | 0% | |
| 126 | 0% | 0% | |
| 127 | 0% | 0% | |
| 128 | 0% | 0% | |
| 129 | 0% | 0% | |
| 130 | 0% | 0% | |
| 131 | 0% | 0% | |
| 132 | 0% | 0% | |
| 133 | 0% | 0% | |
| 134 | 0% | 0% | |
| 135 | 0% | 0% | |
| 136 | 0% | 0% | |
| 137 | 0% | 0% | |
| 138 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Inizio
- Commissioner(s): Aftonbladet
- Fieldwork period: 25 July–2 August 2018
Calculations
- Sample size: 2295
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 1.49%