Opinion Poll by Sifo for Svenska Dagbladet, 6–9 August 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti 31.0% 25.8% 24.7–27.0% 24.3–27.3% 24.1–27.6% 23.5–28.2%
Moderata samlingspartiet 23.3% 20.3% 19.3–21.4% 19.0–21.7% 18.7–22.0% 18.2–22.6%
Sverigedemokraterna 12.9% 16.8% 15.8–17.8% 15.5–18.1% 15.3–18.4% 14.8–18.9%
Centerpartiet 6.1% 10.3% 9.5–11.2% 9.3–11.4% 9.1–11.6% 8.7–12.0%
Vänsterpartiet 5.7% 9.2% 8.5–10.0% 8.2–10.3% 8.1–10.5% 7.7–10.9%
Liberalerna 5.4% 6.0% 5.4–6.7% 5.2–6.9% 5.1–7.1% 4.8–7.4%
Miljöpartiet de gröna 6.9% 5.6% 5.0–6.2% 4.8–6.4% 4.7–6.6% 4.5–6.9%
Kristdemokraterna 4.6% 3.3% 2.9–3.9% 2.8–4.0% 2.7–4.1% 2.5–4.4%
Feministiskt initiativ 3.1% 1.5% 1.2–1.9% 1.1–2.0% 1.1–2.1% 0.9–2.3%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti 113 95 91–99 91–101 89–102 87–104
Moderata samlingspartiet 84 76 71–80 70–80 69–82 67–83
Sverigedemokraterna 49 63 59–65 58–67 57–68 55–70
Centerpartiet 22 38 35–41 35–42 34–43 32–44
Vänsterpartiet 21 34 32–37 31–37 30–39 29–40
Liberalerna 19 22 20–25 20–25 19–26 18–27
Miljöpartiet de gröna 25 21 19–23 18–23 18–24 16–26
Kristdemokraterna 16 0 0 0 0–15 0–16
Feministiskt initiativ 0 0 0 0 0 0

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
84 0% 100%  
85 0.1% 99.9%  
86 0.1% 99.8%  
87 0.4% 99.7%  
88 0.6% 99.3%  
89 2% 98.7%  
90 2% 97%  
91 9% 95%  
92 4% 86%  
93 15% 82%  
94 7% 67%  
95 18% 60% Median
96 10% 42%  
97 10% 33%  
98 8% 23%  
99 5% 14%  
100 3% 9%  
101 2% 6%  
102 2% 3%  
103 0.9% 2%  
104 0.4% 0.9%  
105 0.2% 0.4%  
106 0.2% 0.2%  
107 0.1% 0.1%  
108 0% 0%  
109 0% 0%  
110 0% 0%  
111 0% 0%  
112 0% 0%  
113 0% 0% Last Result

Moderata samlingspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Moderata samlingspartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
65 0.1% 100%  
66 0.1% 99.9%  
67 0.6% 99.8%  
68 0.5% 99.2%  
69 2% 98.7%  
70 2% 97%  
71 5% 95%  
72 3% 89%  
73 13% 86%  
74 5% 73%  
75 14% 68%  
76 9% 54% Median
77 19% 45%  
78 8% 26%  
79 4% 17%  
80 9% 13%  
81 0.8% 4%  
82 2% 3%  
83 0.2% 0.5%  
84 0.2% 0.3% Last Result
85 0.1% 0.1%  
86 0% 0%  

Sverigedemokraterna

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sverigedemokraterna page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0% 100% Last Result
50 0% 100%  
51 0% 100%  
52 0% 100%  
53 0.1% 100%  
54 0.3% 99.9%  
55 0.3% 99.6%  
56 1.1% 99.2%  
57 2% 98%  
58 6% 96%  
59 5% 91%  
60 15% 86%  
61 5% 70%  
62 14% 66%  
63 15% 51% Median
64 12% 36%  
65 15% 24%  
66 2% 10%  
67 4% 7%  
68 2% 4%  
69 0.9% 2%  
70 0.6% 0.9%  
71 0.1% 0.2%  
72 0.1% 0.1%  
73 0% 0%  

Centerpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Centerpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0% 100% Last Result
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0% 100%  
28 0% 100%  
29 0% 100%  
30 0% 100%  
31 0.1% 100%  
32 0.4% 99.9%  
33 2% 99.5%  
34 3% 98%  
35 6% 95%  
36 14% 89%  
37 21% 75%  
38 16% 54% Median
39 11% 38%  
40 8% 27%  
41 9% 19%  
42 7% 10%  
43 1.5% 3%  
44 0.9% 1.2%  
45 0.3% 0.4%  
46 0.1% 0.1%  
47 0% 0%  

Vänsterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vänsterpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0% 100% Last Result
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0.1% 100%  
28 0.4% 99.9%  
29 0.9% 99.5%  
30 3% 98.7%  
31 5% 96%  
32 9% 91%  
33 18% 82%  
34 20% 64% Median
35 24% 44%  
36 8% 19%  
37 6% 11%  
38 2% 5%  
39 2% 3%  
40 0.8% 1.1%  
41 0.1% 0.2%  
42 0.1% 0.1%  
43 0% 0%  

Liberalerna

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberalerna page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0.2% 100%  
18 1.1% 99.7%  
19 2% 98.7% Last Result
20 11% 96%  
21 19% 86%  
22 27% 66% Median
23 11% 39%  
24 14% 29%  
25 10% 14%  
26 4% 5%  
27 0.7% 1.0%  
28 0.2% 0.3%  
29 0.1% 0.1%  
30 0% 0%  

Miljöpartiet de gröna

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljöpartiet de gröna page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0.6% 100%  
17 1.4% 99.4%  
18 6% 98%  
19 14% 92%  
20 28% 78%  
21 17% 50% Median
22 21% 33%  
23 8% 12%  
24 2% 4%  
25 1.0% 2% Last Result
26 0.5% 0.6%  
27 0.1% 0.1%  
28 0% 0%  

Kristdemokraterna

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristdemokraterna page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 97% 100% Median
1 0% 3%  
2 0% 3%  
3 0% 3%  
4 0% 3%  
5 0% 3%  
6 0% 3%  
7 0% 3%  
8 0% 3%  
9 0% 3%  
10 0% 3%  
11 0% 3%  
12 0% 3%  
13 0% 3%  
14 0.2% 3%  
15 2% 3%  
16 0.5% 0.6% Last Result
17 0.1% 0.1%  
18 0% 0%  

Feministiskt initiativ

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Feministiskt initiativ page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet 197 171 15% 166–175 165–177 163–178 158–181
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna – Feministiskt initiativ 159 150 0% 145–155 145–157 143–158 140–160
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna 159 150 0% 145–155 145–157 143–158 140–160
Moderata samlingspartiet – Sverigedemokraterna 133 139 0% 133–142 131–143 130–144 126–146
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna – Kristdemokraterna 141 136 0% 132–141 131–143 129–144 127–148
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna 125 136 0% 132–141 130–142 128–143 126–145
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet 134 129 0% 125–134 125–136 123–137 120–139
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Miljöpartiet de gröna 138 116 0% 111–121 111–122 110–123 107–125
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna 122 114 0% 110–119 108–121 107–122 105–126
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet 106 114 0% 109–118 107–120 106–121 104–122

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
155 0% 100%  
156 0% 99.9%  
157 0.2% 99.9%  
158 0.2% 99.7%  
159 0.2% 99.5%  
160 0.2% 99.3%  
161 0.6% 99.1%  
162 0.5% 98.5%  
163 0.6% 98%  
164 2% 97%  
165 4% 95%  
166 3% 91%  
167 4% 88%  
168 10% 84%  
169 3% 73%  
170 15% 70%  
171 6% 56% Median
172 17% 49%  
173 13% 33%  
174 4% 19%  
175 6% 15% Majority
176 4% 9%  
177 1.4% 6%  
178 3% 4%  
179 0.6% 2%  
180 0.4% 1.0%  
181 0.3% 0.6%  
182 0.1% 0.2%  
183 0.1% 0.1%  
184 0% 0%  
185 0% 0%  
186 0% 0%  
187 0% 0%  
188 0% 0%  
189 0% 0%  
190 0% 0%  
191 0% 0%  
192 0% 0%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0% Last Result

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna – Feministiskt initiativ

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
137 0% 100%  
138 0% 99.9%  
139 0.3% 99.9%  
140 0.3% 99.6%  
141 0.6% 99.4%  
142 0.5% 98.8%  
143 1.1% 98%  
144 1.4% 97%  
145 6% 96%  
146 14% 90%  
147 3% 75%  
148 6% 73%  
149 6% 66%  
150 19% 60% Median
151 8% 41%  
152 9% 33%  
153 6% 24%  
154 7% 18%  
155 3% 11%  
156 2% 8%  
157 4% 6%  
158 0.9% 3%  
159 0.7% 2% Last Result
160 0.5% 1.0%  
161 0.3% 0.5%  
162 0.1% 0.2%  
163 0.1% 0.1%  
164 0% 0%  

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
137 0% 100%  
138 0% 99.9%  
139 0.3% 99.9%  
140 0.3% 99.6%  
141 0.6% 99.4%  
142 0.5% 98.8%  
143 1.1% 98%  
144 1.4% 97%  
145 6% 96%  
146 14% 90%  
147 3% 75%  
148 6% 73%  
149 6% 66%  
150 19% 60% Median
151 8% 41%  
152 9% 33%  
153 6% 24%  
154 7% 18%  
155 3% 11%  
156 2% 8%  
157 4% 6%  
158 0.9% 3%  
159 0.7% 2% Last Result
160 0.5% 1.0%  
161 0.3% 0.5%  
162 0.1% 0.2%  
163 0.1% 0.1%  
164 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet – Sverigedemokraterna

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
124 0% 100%  
125 0.1% 99.9%  
126 0.4% 99.8%  
127 0.4% 99.4%  
128 0.4% 99.0%  
129 0.5% 98.6%  
130 1.1% 98%  
131 3% 97%  
132 4% 94%  
133 4% 90% Last Result
134 4% 86%  
135 5% 82%  
136 12% 77%  
137 6% 65%  
138 9% 59%  
139 9% 50% Median
140 7% 42%  
141 10% 34%  
142 18% 24%  
143 3% 6%  
144 1.3% 4%  
145 1.3% 2%  
146 0.5% 0.9%  
147 0.2% 0.5%  
148 0.1% 0.3%  
149 0.1% 0.2%  
150 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna – Kristdemokraterna

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
124 0.1% 100%  
125 0.1% 99.9%  
126 0.2% 99.8%  
127 1.0% 99.6%  
128 0.5% 98.6%  
129 0.9% 98%  
130 2% 97%  
131 2% 95%  
132 5% 93%  
133 9% 88%  
134 18% 80%  
135 5% 62%  
136 9% 56% Median
137 6% 48%  
138 5% 42%  
139 12% 36%  
140 6% 25%  
141 9% 18% Last Result
142 2% 9%  
143 4% 7%  
144 0.9% 3%  
145 0.7% 2%  
146 0.5% 1.4%  
147 0.3% 0.9%  
148 0.3% 0.7%  
149 0.1% 0.3%  
150 0.1% 0.2%  
151 0% 0.1%  
152 0% 0.1%  
153 0% 0.1%  
154 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
122 0.1% 100%  
123 0.1% 99.9%  
124 0.1% 99.8%  
125 0.2% 99.7% Last Result
126 0.3% 99.5%  
127 1.5% 99.3%  
128 1.1% 98%  
129 1.3% 97%  
130 3% 95%  
131 2% 93%  
132 5% 91%  
133 9% 86%  
134 18% 77%  
135 5% 59%  
136 9% 53% Median
137 6% 45%  
138 5% 39%  
139 12% 33%  
140 6% 22%  
141 9% 15%  
142 2% 6%  
143 3% 5%  
144 0.6% 1.3%  
145 0.4% 0.7%  
146 0.2% 0.4%  
147 0.1% 0.2%  
148 0% 0.1%  
149 0% 0.1%  
150 0% 0%  

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
116 0.1% 100%  
117 0.1% 99.9%  
118 0.1% 99.9%  
119 0.2% 99.8%  
120 0.3% 99.6%  
121 0.5% 99.3%  
122 0.5% 98.8%  
123 1.4% 98%  
124 2% 97%  
125 8% 95%  
126 8% 87%  
127 13% 80%  
128 8% 67%  
129 11% 59% Median
130 15% 48%  
131 12% 33%  
132 6% 22%  
133 4% 15%  
134 4% 12% Last Result
135 2% 8%  
136 4% 6%  
137 2% 3%  
138 0.6% 1.4%  
139 0.3% 0.8%  
140 0.2% 0.5%  
141 0.2% 0.3%  
142 0% 0.1%  
143 0% 0%  

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Miljöpartiet de gröna

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 99.9%  
106 0.1% 99.9%  
107 0.4% 99.7%  
108 0.7% 99.3%  
109 1.0% 98.6%  
110 3% 98%  
111 7% 95%  
112 9% 88%  
113 7% 79%  
114 6% 72%  
115 16% 67%  
116 8% 51% Median
117 11% 43%  
118 7% 32%  
119 9% 25%  
120 4% 16%  
121 6% 12%  
122 2% 6%  
123 2% 4%  
124 2% 2%  
125 0.3% 0.8%  
126 0.3% 0.4%  
127 0.1% 0.2%  
128 0.1% 0.1%  
129 0% 0%  
130 0% 0%  
131 0% 0%  
132 0% 0%  
133 0% 0%  
134 0% 0%  
135 0% 0%  
136 0% 0%  
137 0% 0%  
138 0% 0% Last Result

Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
102 0% 100%  
103 0.1% 99.9%  
104 0.2% 99.9%  
105 0.6% 99.6%  
106 0.7% 99.0%  
107 1.5% 98%  
108 3% 97%  
109 2% 94%  
110 5% 92%  
111 8% 87%  
112 10% 79%  
113 13% 69%  
114 13% 56% Median
115 10% 43%  
116 3% 33%  
117 12% 29%  
118 7% 17%  
119 1.4% 10%  
120 3% 9%  
121 3% 6%  
122 1.0% 3% Last Result
123 0.4% 2%  
124 0.4% 1.3%  
125 0.3% 0.8%  
126 0.2% 0.6%  
127 0.1% 0.4%  
128 0.1% 0.3%  
129 0.1% 0.2%  
130 0% 0.1%  
131 0% 0.1%  
132 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
101 0% 100%  
102 0.1% 99.9%  
103 0.2% 99.8%  
104 0.3% 99.6%  
105 0.8% 99.3%  
106 1.4% 98% Last Result
107 2% 97%  
108 3% 95%  
109 3% 92%  
110 5% 90%  
111 8% 84%  
112 10% 76%  
113 13% 66%  
114 14% 53% Median
115 10% 40%  
116 3% 30%  
117 12% 26%  
118 7% 14%  
119 1.3% 7%  
120 2% 6%  
121 3% 3%  
122 0.4% 0.8%  
123 0.2% 0.3%  
124 0.1% 0.2%  
125 0.1% 0.1%  
126 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations