Opinion Poll by Novus for SVT, 23 July–12 August 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti 31.0% 24.0% 23.2–24.9% 23.0–25.1% 22.8–25.3% 22.4–25.8%
Sverigedemokraterna 12.9% 21.4% 20.6–22.2% 20.3–22.4% 20.2–22.6% 19.8–23.0%
Moderata samlingspartiet 23.3% 17.9% 17.2–18.7% 17.0–18.9% 16.8–19.1% 16.4–19.5%
Centerpartiet 6.1% 9.5% 8.9–10.1% 8.8–10.3% 8.7–10.4% 8.4–10.7%
Vänsterpartiet 5.7% 9.5% 8.9–10.1% 8.8–10.3% 8.7–10.4% 8.4–10.7%
Liberalerna 5.4% 5.8% 5.4–6.3% 5.3–6.5% 5.2–6.6% 5.0–6.8%
Miljöpartiet de gröna 6.9% 5.1% 4.7–5.6% 4.6–5.7% 4.5–5.9% 4.3–6.1%
Kristdemokraterna 4.6% 3.0% 2.7–3.3% 2.6–3.4% 2.5–3.5% 2.3–3.7%
Feministiskt initiativ 3.1% 1.2% 1.0–1.4% 0.9–1.5% 0.9–1.6% 0.8–1.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti 113 89 87–93 86–93 85–94 84–96
Sverigedemokraterna 49 80 77–83 76–83 75–84 74–86
Moderata samlingspartiet 84 67 65–69 63–70 63–71 62–73
Centerpartiet 22 35 35–38 33–38 32–38 32–40
Vänsterpartiet 21 36 33–37 33–38 32–39 32–40
Liberalerna 19 22 20–24 20–24 19–24 19–25
Miljöpartiet de gröna 25 19 18–21 17–21 17–22 16–23
Kristdemokraterna 16 0 0 0 0 0
Feministiskt initiativ 0 0 0 0 0 0

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
82 0.1% 100%  
83 0.2% 99.9%  
84 1.0% 99.7%  
85 2% 98.7%  
86 2% 97%  
87 10% 94%  
88 7% 84%  
89 30% 78% Median
90 8% 48%  
91 21% 40%  
92 7% 18%  
93 7% 11%  
94 3% 4%  
95 0.8% 1.5%  
96 0.5% 0.7%  
97 0.1% 0.2%  
98 0.1% 0.1%  
99 0% 0%  
100 0% 0%  
101 0% 0%  
102 0% 0%  
103 0% 0%  
104 0% 0%  
105 0% 0%  
106 0% 0%  
107 0% 0%  
108 0% 0%  
109 0% 0%  
110 0% 0%  
111 0% 0%  
112 0% 0%  
113 0% 0% Last Result

Sverigedemokraterna

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sverigedemokraterna page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0% 100% Last Result
50 0% 100%  
51 0% 100%  
52 0% 100%  
53 0% 100%  
54 0% 100%  
55 0% 100%  
56 0% 100%  
57 0% 100%  
58 0% 100%  
59 0% 100%  
60 0% 100%  
61 0% 100%  
62 0% 100%  
63 0% 100%  
64 0% 100%  
65 0% 100%  
66 0% 100%  
67 0% 100%  
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0.1% 100%  
73 0.1% 99.9%  
74 0.9% 99.8%  
75 2% 98.9%  
76 6% 97%  
77 4% 91%  
78 10% 87%  
79 18% 76%  
80 16% 59% Median
81 23% 43%  
82 6% 20%  
83 10% 14%  
84 2% 5%  
85 1.4% 2%  
86 0.6% 0.8%  
87 0.1% 0.2%  
88 0.1% 0.1%  
89 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Moderata samlingspartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0.1% 100%  
61 0.4% 99.9%  
62 0.9% 99.5%  
63 4% 98.6%  
64 4% 95%  
65 17% 91%  
66 12% 74%  
67 35% 62% Median
68 8% 27%  
69 11% 20%  
70 4% 8%  
71 2% 4%  
72 0.9% 2%  
73 0.6% 0.8%  
74 0.1% 0.2%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0% Last Result

Centerpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Centerpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0% 100% Last Result
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0% 100%  
28 0% 100%  
29 0% 100%  
30 0% 100%  
31 0.1% 100%  
32 5% 99.9%  
33 0.9% 95%  
34 3% 94%  
35 65% 91% Median
36 2% 26%  
37 11% 24%  
38 12% 13%  
39 0.1% 0.9%  
40 0.4% 0.8%  
41 0.4% 0.4%  
42 0% 0%  

Vänsterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vänsterpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0% 100% Last Result
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0% 100%  
28 0% 100%  
29 0% 100%  
30 0% 100%  
31 0.4% 99.9%  
32 2% 99.6%  
33 9% 97%  
34 11% 89%  
35 23% 78%  
36 26% 55% Median
37 21% 29%  
38 5% 7%  
39 2% 3%  
40 0.7% 0.8%  
41 0.1% 0.1%  
42 0% 0%  

Liberalerna

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberalerna page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.2% 100%  
19 4% 99.7% Last Result
20 16% 96%  
21 16% 80%  
22 16% 64% Median
23 22% 48%  
24 24% 26%  
25 2% 2%  
26 0.2% 0.3%  
27 0.1% 0.1%  
28 0% 0%  

Miljöpartiet de gröna

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljöpartiet de gröna page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0.6% 100%  
17 6% 99.3%  
18 19% 93%  
19 29% 74% Median
20 29% 46%  
21 13% 17%  
22 3% 4%  
23 0.5% 0.6%  
24 0.1% 0.1%  
25 0% 0% Last Result

Kristdemokraterna

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristdemokraterna page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Median
1 0% 0%  
2 0% 0%  
3 0% 0%  
4 0% 0%  
5 0% 0%  
6 0% 0%  
7 0% 0%  
8 0% 0%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0%  
13 0% 0%  
14 0% 0%  
15 0% 0%  
16 0% 0% Last Result

Feministiskt initiativ

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Feministiskt initiativ page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet 197 156 0% 154–160 153–161 152–162 150–164
Sverigedemokraterna – Moderata samlingspartiet 133 147 0% 143–150 143–152 141–152 140–154
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna – Feministiskt initiativ 159 144 0% 141–148 140–149 140–150 138–152
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna 159 144 0% 141–148 140–149 140–150 138–152
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet 134 125 0% 123–128 122–130 121–131 119–132
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna – Kristdemokraterna 141 125 0% 121–128 120–128 119–130 118–131
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna 125 125 0% 121–128 120–128 119–130 118–131
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Miljöpartiet de gröna 138 109 0% 106–112 105–113 104–114 103–115
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna 122 102 0% 100–105 98–106 98–107 96–109
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet 106 102 0% 100–105 98–106 98–107 96–109

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
148 0.1% 100%  
149 0.3% 99.9%  
150 0.2% 99.6%  
151 1.1% 99.4%  
152 1.4% 98%  
153 4% 97%  
154 20% 93%  
155 5% 73%  
156 21% 68% Median
157 11% 48%  
158 18% 36%  
159 8% 19%  
160 4% 11%  
161 4% 7%  
162 2% 3%  
163 0.9% 2%  
164 0.6% 0.8%  
165 0.1% 0.2%  
166 0.1% 0.1%  
167 0% 0%  
168 0% 0%  
169 0% 0%  
170 0% 0%  
171 0% 0%  
172 0% 0%  
173 0% 0%  
174 0% 0%  
175 0% 0% Majority
176 0% 0%  
177 0% 0%  
178 0% 0%  
179 0% 0%  
180 0% 0%  
181 0% 0%  
182 0% 0%  
183 0% 0%  
184 0% 0%  
185 0% 0%  
186 0% 0%  
187 0% 0%  
188 0% 0%  
189 0% 0%  
190 0% 0%  
191 0% 0%  
192 0% 0%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0% Last Result

Sverigedemokraterna – Moderata samlingspartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
133 0% 100% Last Result
134 0% 100%  
135 0% 100%  
136 0% 100%  
137 0% 100%  
138 0.1% 100%  
139 0.3% 99.9%  
140 0.4% 99.6%  
141 2% 99.2%  
142 2% 97%  
143 10% 96%  
144 6% 86%  
145 13% 80%  
146 15% 67%  
147 13% 52% Median
148 17% 39%  
149 4% 22%  
150 9% 18%  
151 3% 9%  
152 4% 6%  
153 1.0% 2%  
154 0.7% 1.0%  
155 0.2% 0.3%  
156 0% 0.1%  
157 0% 0%  

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna – Feministiskt initiativ

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
135 0% 100%  
136 0.1% 99.9%  
137 0.2% 99.9%  
138 0.4% 99.6%  
139 1.5% 99.3%  
140 3% 98%  
141 6% 94%  
142 10% 88%  
143 9% 78%  
144 22% 69% Median
145 6% 47%  
146 18% 41%  
147 8% 23%  
148 8% 15%  
149 3% 7%  
150 3% 4%  
151 0.7% 1.2%  
152 0.4% 0.6%  
153 0.1% 0.2%  
154 0% 0.1%  
155 0% 0%  
156 0% 0%  
157 0% 0%  
158 0% 0%  
159 0% 0% Last Result

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
135 0% 100%  
136 0.1% 99.9%  
137 0.2% 99.9%  
138 0.4% 99.6%  
139 1.5% 99.3%  
140 3% 98%  
141 6% 94%  
142 10% 88%  
143 9% 78%  
144 22% 69% Median
145 6% 47%  
146 18% 41%  
147 8% 23%  
148 8% 15%  
149 3% 7%  
150 3% 4%  
151 0.7% 1.2%  
152 0.4% 0.6%  
153 0.1% 0.2%  
154 0% 0.1%  
155 0% 0%  
156 0% 0%  
157 0% 0%  
158 0% 0%  
159 0% 0% Last Result

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
117 0.1% 100%  
118 0.1% 99.9%  
119 0.9% 99.8%  
120 1.1% 98.9%  
121 2% 98%  
122 5% 96%  
123 15% 91%  
124 14% 77%  
125 19% 62% Median
126 14% 43%  
127 10% 29%  
128 11% 19%  
129 2% 8%  
130 3% 6%  
131 2% 3%  
132 0.4% 0.8%  
133 0.3% 0.4%  
134 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
135 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna – Kristdemokraterna

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
115 0.1% 100%  
116 0.1% 99.9%  
117 0.2% 99.9%  
118 1.0% 99.7%  
119 2% 98.7%  
120 4% 97%  
121 3% 92%  
122 13% 89%  
123 16% 76%  
124 7% 60% Median
125 11% 52%  
126 25% 41%  
127 4% 16%  
128 8% 12%  
129 2% 5%  
130 2% 3%  
131 0.5% 0.9%  
132 0.2% 0.4%  
133 0.1% 0.1%  
134 0% 0%  
135 0% 0%  
136 0% 0%  
137 0% 0%  
138 0% 0%  
139 0% 0%  
140 0% 0%  
141 0% 0% Last Result

Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
115 0.1% 100%  
116 0.1% 99.9%  
117 0.2% 99.9%  
118 1.0% 99.7%  
119 2% 98.7%  
120 4% 96%  
121 3% 92%  
122 13% 89%  
123 16% 76%  
124 7% 60% Median
125 11% 52% Last Result
126 25% 41%  
127 4% 16%  
128 8% 12%  
129 2% 5%  
130 2% 3%  
131 0.5% 0.9%  
132 0.2% 0.3%  
133 0.1% 0.1%  
134 0% 0%  

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Miljöpartiet de gröna

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
100 0% 100%  
101 0.1% 99.9%  
102 0.3% 99.8%  
103 0.9% 99.6%  
104 2% 98.7%  
105 3% 97%  
106 11% 94%  
107 8% 83%  
108 11% 75% Median
109 25% 64%  
110 11% 38%  
111 10% 27%  
112 10% 17%  
113 3% 7%  
114 2% 4%  
115 2% 2%  
116 0.2% 0.4%  
117 0.1% 0.2%  
118 0% 0%  
119 0% 0%  
120 0% 0%  
121 0% 0%  
122 0% 0%  
123 0% 0%  
124 0% 0%  
125 0% 0%  
126 0% 0%  
127 0% 0%  
128 0% 0%  
129 0% 0%  
130 0% 0%  
131 0% 0%  
132 0% 0%  
133 0% 0%  
134 0% 0%  
135 0% 0%  
136 0% 0%  
137 0% 0%  
138 0% 0% Last Result

Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
94 0.1% 100%  
95 0.2% 99.9%  
96 0.3% 99.7%  
97 1.3% 99.5%  
98 3% 98%  
99 2% 95%  
100 16% 93%  
101 8% 76%  
102 34% 69% Median
103 6% 35%  
104 14% 29%  
105 6% 15%  
106 4% 9%  
107 3% 5%  
108 1.0% 2%  
109 0.4% 0.7%  
110 0.1% 0.3%  
111 0.1% 0.1%  
112 0% 0%  
113 0% 0%  
114 0% 0%  
115 0% 0%  
116 0% 0%  
117 0% 0%  
118 0% 0%  
119 0% 0%  
120 0% 0%  
121 0% 0%  
122 0% 0% Last Result

Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
94 0.1% 100%  
95 0.2% 99.9%  
96 0.3% 99.7%  
97 1.3% 99.4%  
98 3% 98%  
99 2% 95%  
100 16% 93%  
101 8% 76%  
102 34% 69% Median
103 6% 35%  
104 14% 29%  
105 6% 15%  
106 4% 9% Last Result
107 3% 5%  
108 1.0% 2%  
109 0.4% 0.7%  
110 0.1% 0.2%  
111 0.1% 0.1%  
112 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations