Opinion Poll by Inizio for Aftonbladet, 10–16 August 2018
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti | 31.0% | 24.6% | 23.4–25.8% | 23.1–26.2% | 22.8–26.5% | 22.2–27.1% |
| Moderata samlingspartiet | 23.3% | 20.9% | 19.8–22.1% | 19.4–22.4% | 19.2–22.7% | 18.7–23.3% |
| Sverigedemokraterna | 12.9% | 18.8% | 17.7–19.9% | 17.4–20.3% | 17.1–20.5% | 16.6–21.1% |
| Vänsterpartiet | 5.7% | 8.7% | 7.9–9.5% | 7.7–9.8% | 7.5–10.0% | 7.2–10.4% |
| Centerpartiet | 6.1% | 8.5% | 7.7–9.3% | 7.5–9.6% | 7.4–9.8% | 7.0–10.2% |
| Miljöpartiet de gröna | 6.9% | 5.3% | 4.7–6.0% | 4.6–6.2% | 4.4–6.4% | 4.2–6.7% |
| Kristdemokraterna | 4.6% | 5.2% | 4.6–5.9% | 4.5–6.1% | 4.3–6.3% | 4.1–6.6% |
| Liberalerna | 5.4% | 4.7% | 4.1–5.3% | 4.0–5.5% | 3.8–5.7% | 3.6–6.0% |
| Feministiskt initiativ | 3.1% | 1.1% | 0.9–1.5% | 0.8–1.6% | 0.7–1.7% | 0.6–1.9% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti | 113 | 88 | 84–93 | 83–95 | 82–96 | 80–99 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet | 84 | 75 | 71–80 | 70–81 | 69–82 | 67–85 |
| Sverigedemokraterna | 49 | 68 | 64–72 | 62–73 | 61–75 | 60–77 |
| Vänsterpartiet | 21 | 31 | 28–35 | 28–36 | 27–37 | 26–38 |
| Centerpartiet | 22 | 31 | 28–34 | 27–35 | 26–35 | 25–37 |
| Miljöpartiet de gröna | 25 | 20 | 17–23 | 16–23 | 16–24 | 15–25 |
| Kristdemokraterna | 16 | 19 | 17–21 | 16–22 | 16–23 | 14–24 |
| Liberalerna | 19 | 17 | 15–19 | 0–20 | 0–20 | 0–22 |
| Feministiskt initiativ | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 77 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 78 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 79 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 80 | 0.8% | 99.5% | |
| 81 | 0.9% | 98.7% | |
| 82 | 2% | 98% | |
| 83 | 5% | 96% | |
| 84 | 2% | 91% | |
| 85 | 5% | 89% | |
| 86 | 15% | 84% | |
| 87 | 8% | 69% | |
| 88 | 12% | 61% | Median |
| 89 | 7% | 48% | |
| 90 | 9% | 42% | |
| 91 | 14% | 33% | |
| 92 | 5% | 18% | |
| 93 | 5% | 13% | |
| 94 | 3% | 9% | |
| 95 | 1.3% | 6% | |
| 96 | 2% | 4% | |
| 97 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 98 | 0.4% | 1.1% | |
| 99 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 100 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 101 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 102 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 103 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 104 | 0% | 0% | |
| 105 | 0% | 0% | |
| 106 | 0% | 0% | |
| 107 | 0% | 0% | |
| 108 | 0% | 0% | |
| 109 | 0% | 0% | |
| 110 | 0% | 0% | |
| 111 | 0% | 0% | |
| 112 | 0% | 0% | |
| 113 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Moderata samlingspartiet
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Moderata samlingspartiet page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 65 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 66 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 67 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 68 | 1.1% | 99.4% | |
| 69 | 1.4% | 98% | |
| 70 | 6% | 97% | |
| 71 | 3% | 91% | |
| 72 | 9% | 88% | |
| 73 | 9% | 79% | |
| 74 | 10% | 70% | |
| 75 | 16% | 60% | Median |
| 76 | 8% | 44% | |
| 77 | 8% | 36% | |
| 78 | 13% | 29% | |
| 79 | 5% | 16% | |
| 80 | 4% | 11% | |
| 81 | 3% | 7% | |
| 82 | 1.5% | 4% | |
| 83 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 84 | 0.4% | 1.0% | Last Result |
| 85 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 86 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 87 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 88 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 89 | 0% | 0% |
Sverigedemokraterna
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sverigedemokraterna page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 49 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 50 | 0% | 100% | |
| 51 | 0% | 100% | |
| 52 | 0% | 100% | |
| 53 | 0% | 100% | |
| 54 | 0% | 100% | |
| 55 | 0% | 100% | |
| 56 | 0% | 100% | |
| 57 | 0% | 100% | |
| 58 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 59 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 60 | 0.6% | 99.7% | |
| 61 | 2% | 99.1% | |
| 62 | 2% | 97% | |
| 63 | 3% | 95% | |
| 64 | 8% | 92% | |
| 65 | 9% | 84% | |
| 66 | 9% | 76% | |
| 67 | 10% | 67% | |
| 68 | 9% | 57% | Median |
| 69 | 14% | 48% | |
| 70 | 12% | 34% | |
| 71 | 6% | 22% | |
| 72 | 9% | 16% | |
| 73 | 3% | 8% | |
| 74 | 2% | 5% | |
| 75 | 2% | 3% | |
| 76 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 77 | 0.4% | 0.8% | |
| 78 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 79 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 80 | 0% | 0% |
Vänsterpartiet
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vänsterpartiet page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 22 | 0% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 26 | 1.3% | 99.7% | |
| 27 | 2% | 98% | |
| 28 | 6% | 96% | |
| 29 | 14% | 90% | |
| 30 | 11% | 76% | |
| 31 | 19% | 65% | Median |
| 32 | 13% | 46% | |
| 33 | 11% | 33% | |
| 34 | 10% | 22% | |
| 35 | 7% | 12% | |
| 36 | 3% | 5% | |
| 37 | 2% | 3% | |
| 38 | 0.6% | 0.9% | |
| 39 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 40 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 41 | 0% | 0% |
Centerpartiet
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Centerpartiet page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 23 | 0% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0.7% | 99.9% | |
| 26 | 2% | 99.2% | |
| 27 | 3% | 97% | |
| 28 | 11% | 94% | |
| 29 | 13% | 83% | |
| 30 | 18% | 70% | |
| 31 | 18% | 52% | Median |
| 32 | 11% | 34% | |
| 33 | 10% | 23% | |
| 34 | 7% | 13% | |
| 35 | 3% | 6% | |
| 36 | 2% | 2% | |
| 37 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 38 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 39 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 40 | 0% | 0% |
Miljöpartiet de gröna
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljöpartiet de gröna page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 1 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 2 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 3 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 4 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 5 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 6 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 7 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 8 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 9 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 10 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 11 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 12 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 13 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 14 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 15 | 1.1% | 99.8% | |
| 16 | 6% | 98.6% | |
| 17 | 11% | 92% | |
| 18 | 15% | 81% | |
| 19 | 15% | 66% | |
| 20 | 25% | 51% | Median |
| 21 | 10% | 26% | |
| 22 | 6% | 16% | |
| 23 | 7% | 10% | |
| 24 | 3% | 3% | |
| 25 | 0.5% | 0.6% | Last Result |
| 26 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 27 | 0% | 0% |
Kristdemokraterna
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristdemokraterna page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 1 | 0% | 99.6% | |
| 2 | 0% | 99.6% | |
| 3 | 0% | 99.6% | |
| 4 | 0% | 99.6% | |
| 5 | 0% | 99.6% | |
| 6 | 0% | 99.6% | |
| 7 | 0% | 99.6% | |
| 8 | 0% | 99.6% | |
| 9 | 0% | 99.6% | |
| 10 | 0% | 99.6% | |
| 11 | 0% | 99.6% | |
| 12 | 0% | 99.6% | |
| 13 | 0% | 99.6% | |
| 14 | 0.3% | 99.6% | |
| 15 | 1.3% | 99.3% | |
| 16 | 5% | 98% | Last Result |
| 17 | 13% | 93% | |
| 18 | 13% | 80% | |
| 19 | 31% | 67% | Median |
| 20 | 15% | 35% | |
| 21 | 13% | 20% | |
| 22 | 4% | 7% | |
| 23 | 2% | 3% | |
| 24 | 0.9% | 1.2% | |
| 25 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 26 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 27 | 0% | 0% |
Liberalerna
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberalerna page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6% | 100% | |
| 1 | 0% | 94% | |
| 2 | 0% | 94% | |
| 3 | 0% | 94% | |
| 4 | 0% | 94% | |
| 5 | 0% | 94% | |
| 6 | 0% | 94% | |
| 7 | 0% | 94% | |
| 8 | 0% | 94% | |
| 9 | 0% | 94% | |
| 10 | 0% | 94% | |
| 11 | 0% | 94% | |
| 12 | 0% | 94% | |
| 13 | 0% | 94% | |
| 14 | 0.3% | 94% | |
| 15 | 11% | 94% | |
| 16 | 14% | 83% | |
| 17 | 26% | 69% | Median |
| 18 | 21% | 43% | |
| 19 | 16% | 22% | Last Result |
| 20 | 5% | 6% | |
| 21 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 22 | 0.5% | 0.7% | |
| 23 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 24 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% |
Feministiskt initiativ
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Feministiskt initiativ page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet | 219 | 194 | 100% | 189–201 | 188–203 | 187–206 | 185–210 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet | 197 | 164 | 2% | 159–170 | 157–171 | 156–174 | 154–178 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Sverigedemokraterna – Kristdemokraterna | 149 | 163 | 1.0% | 156–168 | 156–170 | 154–173 | 150–176 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Sverigedemokraterna | 133 | 143 | 0% | 138–149 | 136–151 | 135–153 | 133–156 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna – Liberalerna | 141 | 142 | 0% | 136–147 | 133–148 | 130–150 | 126–152 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna – Feministiskt initiativ | 159 | 140 | 0% | 134–145 | 133–147 | 132–149 | 128–152 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna | 159 | 140 | 0% | 134–145 | 133–147 | 132–149 | 128–152 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna | 122 | 125 | 0% | 119–131 | 119–132 | 118–134 | 114–137 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna | 125 | 122 | 0% | 117–127 | 115–129 | 111–131 | 107–133 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet | 134 | 120 | 0% | 115–126 | 113–127 | 112–129 | 110–133 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Miljöpartiet de gröna | 138 | 108 | 0% | 103–113 | 102–115 | 101–116 | 98–119 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet | 106 | 106 | 0% | 101–111 | 100–113 | 99–115 | 97–117 |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 181 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 182 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 183 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 184 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 185 | 0.4% | 99.5% | |
| 186 | 1.0% | 99.1% | |
| 187 | 2% | 98% | |
| 188 | 3% | 96% | |
| 189 | 7% | 94% | |
| 190 | 4% | 87% | |
| 191 | 4% | 82% | |
| 192 | 13% | 78% | |
| 193 | 7% | 65% | |
| 194 | 13% | 58% | Median |
| 195 | 7% | 46% | |
| 196 | 7% | 39% | |
| 197 | 7% | 31% | |
| 198 | 6% | 24% | |
| 199 | 2% | 18% | |
| 200 | 5% | 15% | |
| 201 | 3% | 11% | |
| 202 | 2% | 7% | |
| 203 | 1.0% | 5% | |
| 204 | 0.8% | 4% | |
| 205 | 0.4% | 3% | |
| 206 | 1.1% | 3% | |
| 207 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 208 | 0.2% | 1.0% | |
| 209 | 0.2% | 0.8% | |
| 210 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 211 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 212 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 213 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 214 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 215 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 216 | 0% | 0% | |
| 217 | 0% | 0% | |
| 218 | 0% | 0% | |
| 219 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 151 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 152 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 153 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 154 | 0.5% | 99.6% | |
| 155 | 0.6% | 99.1% | |
| 156 | 1.5% | 98.5% | |
| 157 | 3% | 97% | |
| 158 | 3% | 94% | |
| 159 | 2% | 91% | |
| 160 | 10% | 89% | |
| 161 | 12% | 80% | |
| 162 | 7% | 67% | |
| 163 | 10% | 61% | Median |
| 164 | 9% | 51% | |
| 165 | 7% | 41% | |
| 166 | 10% | 35% | |
| 167 | 7% | 25% | |
| 168 | 4% | 18% | |
| 169 | 4% | 15% | |
| 170 | 3% | 11% | |
| 171 | 2% | 7% | |
| 172 | 1.4% | 5% | |
| 173 | 0.9% | 4% | |
| 174 | 0.9% | 3% | |
| 175 | 0.5% | 2% | Majority |
| 176 | 0.4% | 1.2% | |
| 177 | 0.3% | 0.9% | |
| 178 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 179 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 180 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 181 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 182 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 183 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 184 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 185 | 0% | 0% | |
| 186 | 0% | 0% | |
| 187 | 0% | 0% | |
| 188 | 0% | 0% | |
| 189 | 0% | 0% | |
| 190 | 0% | 0% | |
| 191 | 0% | 0% | |
| 192 | 0% | 0% | |
| 193 | 0% | 0% | |
| 194 | 0% | 0% | |
| 195 | 0% | 0% | |
| 196 | 0% | 0% | |
| 197 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Sverigedemokraterna – Kristdemokraterna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 144 | 0% | 100% | |
| 145 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 146 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 147 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 148 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 149 | 0.1% | 99.8% | Last Result |
| 150 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 151 | 0.3% | 99.4% | |
| 152 | 0.6% | 99.1% | |
| 153 | 0.7% | 98.5% | |
| 154 | 0.6% | 98% | |
| 155 | 2% | 97% | |
| 156 | 9% | 96% | |
| 157 | 5% | 87% | |
| 158 | 6% | 82% | |
| 159 | 5% | 76% | |
| 160 | 9% | 71% | |
| 161 | 5% | 62% | |
| 162 | 4% | 57% | Median |
| 163 | 11% | 53% | |
| 164 | 10% | 42% | |
| 165 | 6% | 32% | |
| 166 | 12% | 26% | |
| 167 | 3% | 14% | |
| 168 | 2% | 11% | |
| 169 | 2% | 9% | |
| 170 | 2% | 7% | |
| 171 | 1.3% | 5% | |
| 172 | 0.6% | 4% | |
| 173 | 1.3% | 3% | |
| 174 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 175 | 0.4% | 1.0% | Majority |
| 176 | 0.1% | 0.6% | |
| 177 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 178 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 179 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 180 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 181 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 182 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Sverigedemokraterna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 130 | 0% | 100% | |
| 131 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 132 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 133 | 0.3% | 99.5% | Last Result |
| 134 | 0.9% | 99.2% | |
| 135 | 2% | 98% | |
| 136 | 2% | 97% | |
| 137 | 5% | 95% | |
| 138 | 6% | 90% | |
| 139 | 5% | 84% | |
| 140 | 6% | 79% | |
| 141 | 7% | 74% | |
| 142 | 11% | 67% | |
| 143 | 6% | 56% | Median |
| 144 | 11% | 49% | |
| 145 | 5% | 38% | |
| 146 | 8% | 33% | |
| 147 | 12% | 26% | |
| 148 | 3% | 14% | |
| 149 | 3% | 11% | |
| 150 | 3% | 8% | |
| 151 | 0.8% | 5% | |
| 152 | 1.2% | 4% | |
| 153 | 1.3% | 3% | |
| 154 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 155 | 0.6% | 1.1% | |
| 156 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 157 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 158 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 159 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 160 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 161 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 162 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna – Liberalerna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 122 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 123 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 124 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 125 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 126 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 127 | 0.5% | 99.5% | |
| 128 | 0.2% | 99.0% | |
| 129 | 0.7% | 98.8% | |
| 130 | 0.7% | 98% | |
| 131 | 0.4% | 97% | |
| 132 | 0.8% | 97% | |
| 133 | 1.2% | 96% | |
| 134 | 1.4% | 95% | |
| 135 | 2% | 94% | |
| 136 | 4% | 92% | |
| 137 | 4% | 88% | |
| 138 | 9% | 84% | |
| 139 | 8% | 75% | |
| 140 | 9% | 67% | |
| 141 | 6% | 58% | Last Result |
| 142 | 8% | 53% | Median |
| 143 | 7% | 44% | |
| 144 | 9% | 37% | |
| 145 | 13% | 28% | |
| 146 | 4% | 16% | |
| 147 | 4% | 11% | |
| 148 | 3% | 7% | |
| 149 | 1.2% | 4% | |
| 150 | 0.9% | 3% | |
| 151 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 152 | 0.6% | 0.9% | |
| 153 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 154 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 155 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 156 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna – Feministiskt initiativ
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 124 | 0% | 100% | |
| 125 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 126 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 127 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 128 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 129 | 0.2% | 99.5% | |
| 130 | 0.2% | 99.2% | |
| 131 | 1.2% | 99.0% | |
| 132 | 2% | 98% | |
| 133 | 2% | 96% | |
| 134 | 5% | 93% | |
| 135 | 9% | 88% | |
| 136 | 5% | 79% | |
| 137 | 11% | 74% | |
| 138 | 6% | 63% | |
| 139 | 5% | 57% | Median |
| 140 | 14% | 52% | |
| 141 | 7% | 39% | |
| 142 | 4% | 31% | |
| 143 | 9% | 27% | |
| 144 | 6% | 18% | |
| 145 | 2% | 12% | |
| 146 | 4% | 10% | |
| 147 | 2% | 6% | |
| 148 | 0.9% | 4% | |
| 149 | 1.0% | 3% | |
| 150 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 151 | 0.6% | 1.3% | |
| 152 | 0.3% | 0.7% | |
| 153 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 154 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 155 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 156 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 157 | 0% | 0% | |
| 158 | 0% | 0% | |
| 159 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 124 | 0% | 100% | |
| 125 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 126 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 127 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 128 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 129 | 0.2% | 99.5% | |
| 130 | 0.2% | 99.2% | |
| 131 | 1.2% | 99.0% | |
| 132 | 2% | 98% | |
| 133 | 2% | 96% | |
| 134 | 5% | 93% | |
| 135 | 9% | 88% | |
| 136 | 5% | 79% | |
| 137 | 11% | 74% | |
| 138 | 6% | 63% | |
| 139 | 5% | 57% | Median |
| 140 | 14% | 52% | |
| 141 | 7% | 39% | |
| 142 | 4% | 31% | |
| 143 | 9% | 27% | |
| 144 | 6% | 18% | |
| 145 | 2% | 12% | |
| 146 | 4% | 10% | |
| 147 | 2% | 6% | |
| 148 | 0.9% | 4% | |
| 149 | 1.0% | 3% | |
| 150 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 151 | 0.6% | 1.3% | |
| 152 | 0.3% | 0.7% | |
| 153 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 154 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 155 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 156 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 157 | 0% | 0% | |
| 158 | 0% | 0% | |
| 159 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 107 | 0% | 100% | |
| 108 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 109 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 110 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 111 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 112 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 113 | 0.1% | 99.6% | |
| 114 | 0.3% | 99.5% | |
| 115 | 0.4% | 99.3% | |
| 116 | 0.3% | 98.9% | |
| 117 | 0.5% | 98.6% | |
| 118 | 2% | 98% | |
| 119 | 7% | 96% | |
| 120 | 3% | 89% | |
| 121 | 8% | 87% | |
| 122 | 8% | 79% | Last Result |
| 123 | 6% | 71% | |
| 124 | 10% | 64% | |
| 125 | 8% | 54% | Median |
| 126 | 8% | 46% | |
| 127 | 15% | 38% | |
| 128 | 4% | 23% | |
| 129 | 5% | 19% | |
| 130 | 3% | 14% | |
| 131 | 5% | 11% | |
| 132 | 1.4% | 6% | |
| 133 | 2% | 5% | |
| 134 | 1.2% | 3% | |
| 135 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 136 | 0.2% | 1.1% | |
| 137 | 0.5% | 0.9% | |
| 138 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 139 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 140 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 141 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 102 | 0% | 100% | |
| 103 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 104 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 105 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 106 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 107 | 0.3% | 99.6% | |
| 108 | 0.2% | 99.2% | |
| 109 | 0.5% | 99.0% | |
| 110 | 0.7% | 98% | |
| 111 | 0.6% | 98% | |
| 112 | 0.5% | 97% | |
| 113 | 0.7% | 97% | |
| 114 | 0.5% | 96% | |
| 115 | 2% | 95% | |
| 116 | 2% | 94% | |
| 117 | 3% | 92% | |
| 118 | 5% | 89% | |
| 119 | 4% | 84% | |
| 120 | 10% | 80% | |
| 121 | 14% | 70% | |
| 122 | 7% | 56% | |
| 123 | 7% | 50% | Median |
| 124 | 4% | 43% | |
| 125 | 6% | 39% | Last Result |
| 126 | 18% | 34% | |
| 127 | 9% | 16% | |
| 128 | 1.2% | 7% | |
| 129 | 1.2% | 6% | |
| 130 | 2% | 4% | |
| 131 | 1.5% | 3% | |
| 132 | 0.9% | 1.5% | |
| 133 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 134 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 135 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 136 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 137 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 107 | 0% | 100% | |
| 108 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 109 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 110 | 0.2% | 99.5% | |
| 111 | 0.8% | 99.3% | |
| 112 | 1.4% | 98.5% | |
| 113 | 3% | 97% | |
| 114 | 4% | 94% | |
| 115 | 9% | 90% | |
| 116 | 6% | 82% | |
| 117 | 7% | 76% | |
| 118 | 8% | 69% | |
| 119 | 9% | 61% | Median |
| 120 | 5% | 52% | |
| 121 | 9% | 47% | |
| 122 | 7% | 38% | |
| 123 | 5% | 31% | |
| 124 | 7% | 25% | |
| 125 | 6% | 18% | |
| 126 | 4% | 12% | |
| 127 | 4% | 8% | |
| 128 | 1.2% | 4% | |
| 129 | 1.0% | 3% | |
| 130 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 131 | 0.3% | 1.3% | |
| 132 | 0.3% | 1.0% | |
| 133 | 0.5% | 0.7% | |
| 134 | 0.1% | 0.3% | Last Result |
| 135 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 136 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 137 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 138 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Miljöpartiet de gröna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 90 | 0% | 100% | |
| 91 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 92 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 93 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 94 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 95 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 96 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 97 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 98 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 99 | 0.4% | 99.4% | |
| 100 | 1.0% | 99.0% | |
| 101 | 2% | 98% | |
| 102 | 3% | 96% | |
| 103 | 3% | 93% | |
| 104 | 3% | 89% | |
| 105 | 7% | 86% | |
| 106 | 16% | 79% | |
| 107 | 12% | 63% | |
| 108 | 8% | 51% | Median |
| 109 | 8% | 42% | |
| 110 | 8% | 34% | |
| 111 | 8% | 26% | |
| 112 | 5% | 18% | |
| 113 | 5% | 13% | |
| 114 | 3% | 8% | |
| 115 | 2% | 5% | |
| 116 | 0.9% | 3% | |
| 117 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 118 | 0.5% | 1.2% | |
| 119 | 0.3% | 0.7% | |
| 120 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 121 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 122 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 123 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 124 | 0% | 0% | |
| 125 | 0% | 0% | |
| 126 | 0% | 0% | |
| 127 | 0% | 0% | |
| 128 | 0% | 0% | |
| 129 | 0% | 0% | |
| 130 | 0% | 0% | |
| 131 | 0% | 0% | |
| 132 | 0% | 0% | |
| 133 | 0% | 0% | |
| 134 | 0% | 0% | |
| 135 | 0% | 0% | |
| 136 | 0% | 0% | |
| 137 | 0% | 0% | |
| 138 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 94 | 0% | 100% | |
| 95 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 96 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 97 | 0.4% | 99.6% | |
| 98 | 0.9% | 99.2% | |
| 99 | 1.1% | 98% | |
| 100 | 3% | 97% | |
| 101 | 8% | 94% | |
| 102 | 5% | 87% | |
| 103 | 11% | 82% | |
| 104 | 9% | 71% | |
| 105 | 7% | 62% | |
| 106 | 6% | 54% | Last Result, Median |
| 107 | 11% | 48% | |
| 108 | 13% | 37% | |
| 109 | 7% | 24% | |
| 110 | 5% | 17% | |
| 111 | 5% | 13% | |
| 112 | 1.4% | 8% | |
| 113 | 2% | 6% | |
| 114 | 2% | 4% | |
| 115 | 1.2% | 3% | |
| 116 | 0.8% | 1.3% | |
| 117 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 118 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 119 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 120 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 121 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 122 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Inizio
- Commissioner(s): Aftonbladet
- Fieldwork period: 10–16 August 2018
Calculations
- Sample size: 2049
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 2.04%