Opinion Poll by Sifo for Svenska Dagbladet, 13–16 August 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti 31.0% 25.2% 24.2–26.2% 24.0–26.4% 23.8–26.7% 23.3–27.1%
Moderata samlingspartiet 23.3% 19.4% 18.5–20.3% 18.3–20.5% 18.1–20.7% 17.7–21.2%
Sverigedemokraterna 12.9% 18.7% 17.9–19.6% 17.6–19.8% 17.4–20.0% 17.0–20.5%
Centerpartiet 6.1% 9.5% 8.9–10.2% 8.7–10.3% 8.6–10.5% 8.3–10.9%
Vänsterpartiet 5.7% 9.3% 8.7–10.0% 8.5–10.2% 8.4–10.3% 8.1–10.6%
Miljöpartiet de gröna 6.9% 6.5% 6.0–7.1% 5.9–7.2% 5.7–7.4% 5.5–7.7%
Liberalerna 5.4% 5.1% 4.6–5.6% 4.5–5.8% 4.4–5.9% 4.2–6.1%
Kristdemokraterna 4.6% 4.2% 3.8–4.7% 3.7–4.8% 3.6–4.9% 3.4–5.2%
Feministiskt initiativ 3.1% 1.0% 0.8–1.3% 0.8–1.3% 0.7–1.4% 0.6–1.5%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti 113 91 86–94 85–96 85–97 83–100
Moderata samlingspartiet 84 70 66–73 65–74 65–76 63–77
Sverigedemokraterna 49 68 64–71 63–72 62–73 60–75
Centerpartiet 22 34 32–37 31–37 31–38 29–39
Vänsterpartiet 21 33 31–36 30–37 30–37 29–39
Miljöpartiet de gröna 25 24 22–26 21–26 21–27 20–28
Liberalerna 19 19 17–20 16–21 16–21 15–22
Kristdemokraterna 16 15 0–17 0–17 0–17 0–19
Feministiskt initiativ 0 0 0 0 0 0

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
81 0% 100%  
82 0.1% 99.9%  
83 0.6% 99.9%  
84 0.7% 99.2%  
85 8% 98.6%  
86 13% 91%  
87 4% 78%  
88 4% 73%  
89 4% 69%  
90 10% 65%  
91 18% 55% Median
92 6% 38%  
93 14% 31%  
94 9% 17%  
95 3% 8%  
96 2% 5%  
97 2% 3%  
98 0.4% 1.4%  
99 0.2% 1.0%  
100 0.4% 0.8%  
101 0.2% 0.4%  
102 0.2% 0.2%  
103 0% 0%  
104 0% 0%  
105 0% 0%  
106 0% 0%  
107 0% 0%  
108 0% 0%  
109 0% 0%  
110 0% 0%  
111 0% 0%  
112 0% 0%  
113 0% 0% Last Result

Moderata samlingspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Moderata samlingspartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0.3% 100%  
63 0.4% 99.7%  
64 2% 99.3%  
65 4% 98%  
66 4% 93%  
67 9% 89%  
68 14% 80%  
69 16% 66%  
70 16% 51% Median
71 9% 35%  
72 10% 26%  
73 7% 16%  
74 4% 9%  
75 1.2% 5%  
76 3% 4%  
77 0.4% 0.8%  
78 0.2% 0.4%  
79 0.2% 0.2%  
80 0% 0.1%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0% Last Result

Sverigedemokraterna

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sverigedemokraterna page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0% 100% Last Result
50 0% 100%  
51 0% 100%  
52 0% 100%  
53 0% 100%  
54 0% 100%  
55 0% 100%  
56 0% 100%  
57 0% 100%  
58 0% 100%  
59 0.1% 100%  
60 0.6% 99.9%  
61 0.4% 99.3%  
62 3% 98.9%  
63 5% 96%  
64 5% 90%  
65 6% 85%  
66 17% 79%  
67 12% 63%  
68 9% 50% Median
69 25% 41%  
70 5% 17%  
71 3% 11%  
72 6% 9%  
73 2% 3%  
74 0.3% 1.2%  
75 0.8% 0.9%  
76 0.1% 0.2%  
77 0% 0.1%  
78 0.1% 0.1%  
79 0% 0%  

Centerpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Centerpartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0% 100% Last Result
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0% 100%  
28 0% 100%  
29 0.5% 100%  
30 2% 99.5%  
31 6% 98%  
32 14% 91%  
33 10% 78%  
34 29% 68% Median
35 14% 39%  
36 13% 26%  
37 8% 12%  
38 3% 4%  
39 0.7% 1.1%  
40 0.3% 0.4%  
41 0% 0.1%  
42 0% 0%  

Vänsterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vänsterpartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0% 100% Last Result
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0% 100%  
28 0.2% 100%  
29 1.3% 99.7%  
30 4% 98%  
31 13% 95%  
32 19% 81%  
33 18% 62% Median
34 17% 44%  
35 10% 27%  
36 9% 18%  
37 6% 8%  
38 1.2% 2%  
39 0.3% 0.7%  
40 0.4% 0.4%  
41 0% 0%  

Miljöpartiet de gröna

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljöpartiet de gröna page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.3% 100%  
20 1.3% 99.7%  
21 5% 98%  
22 20% 93%  
23 21% 74%  
24 24% 52% Median
25 17% 28% Last Result
26 8% 11%  
27 2% 3%  
28 0.9% 1.0%  
29 0.1% 0.1%  
30 0% 0%  

Liberalerna

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberalerna page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100%  
1 0% 99.9%  
2 0% 99.9%  
3 0% 99.9%  
4 0% 99.9%  
5 0% 99.9%  
6 0% 99.9%  
7 0% 99.9%  
8 0% 99.9%  
9 0% 99.9%  
10 0% 99.9%  
11 0% 99.9%  
12 0% 99.9%  
13 0% 99.9%  
14 0% 99.9%  
15 1.3% 99.9%  
16 4% 98.6%  
17 16% 95%  
18 29% 79%  
19 28% 51% Last Result, Median
20 16% 23%  
21 5% 7%  
22 2% 2%  
23 0.3% 0.3%  
24 0% 0.1%  
25 0% 0%  

Kristdemokraterna

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristdemokraterna page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 24% 100%  
1 0% 76%  
2 0% 76%  
3 0% 76%  
4 0% 76%  
5 0% 76%  
6 0% 76%  
7 0% 76%  
8 0% 76%  
9 0% 76%  
10 0% 76%  
11 0% 76%  
12 0% 76%  
13 0% 76%  
14 8% 76%  
15 42% 69% Median
16 16% 27% Last Result
17 8% 10%  
18 2% 2%  
19 0.5% 0.5%  
20 0% 0%  

Feministiskt initiativ

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Feministiskt initiativ page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet 197 159 0.1% 155–166 154–169 153–171 151–173
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna – Feministiskt initiativ 159 147 0% 141–153 141–154 140–157 139–159
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna 159 147 0% 141–153 141–154 140–157 139–159
Moderata samlingspartiet – Sverigedemokraterna 133 136 0% 132–143 131–144 131–146 128–148
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna – Kristdemokraterna 141 135 0% 125–141 124–142 123–143 121–144
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet 134 123 0% 118–130 118–131 117–132 116–135
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna 125 122 0% 118–127 117–129 116–129 114–133
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna 122 116 0% 106–122 105–123 103–124 102–126
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Miljöpartiet de gröna 138 115 0% 109–118 108–119 108–120 107–125
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet 106 104 0% 100–108 99–110 97–111 96–114

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
150 0.1% 100%  
151 0.6% 99.8%  
152 0.4% 99.2%  
153 3% 98.9%  
154 2% 96%  
155 11% 94%  
156 9% 84%  
157 5% 75%  
158 13% 70%  
159 15% 57%  
160 3% 43%  
161 5% 40% Median
162 7% 35%  
163 4% 27%  
164 3% 23%  
165 5% 20%  
166 8% 15%  
167 2% 8%  
168 0.7% 6%  
169 2% 5%  
170 0.6% 3%  
171 0.2% 3%  
172 0.2% 2%  
173 2% 2%  
174 0.1% 0.2%  
175 0.1% 0.1% Majority
176 0% 0.1%  
177 0% 0%  
178 0% 0%  
179 0% 0%  
180 0% 0%  
181 0% 0%  
182 0% 0%  
183 0% 0%  
184 0% 0%  
185 0% 0%  
186 0% 0%  
187 0% 0%  
188 0% 0%  
189 0% 0%  
190 0% 0%  
191 0% 0%  
192 0% 0%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0% Last Result

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna – Feministiskt initiativ

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
137 0% 100%  
138 0.1% 99.9%  
139 1.1% 99.8%  
140 2% 98.7%  
141 9% 97%  
142 9% 89%  
143 6% 79%  
144 3% 74%  
145 4% 71%  
146 8% 67%  
147 9% 59%  
148 12% 50% Median
149 7% 38%  
150 4% 31%  
151 8% 26%  
152 5% 19%  
153 3% 13%  
154 6% 10%  
155 0.7% 4%  
156 1.1% 4%  
157 1.4% 3%  
158 0.5% 1.2%  
159 0.3% 0.7% Last Result
160 0.2% 0.4%  
161 0.1% 0.2%  
162 0% 0.1%  
163 0% 0%  

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
137 0% 100%  
138 0.1% 99.9%  
139 1.1% 99.8%  
140 2% 98.7%  
141 9% 97%  
142 9% 89%  
143 6% 79%  
144 3% 74%  
145 4% 71%  
146 8% 67%  
147 9% 59%  
148 12% 50% Median
149 7% 38%  
150 4% 31%  
151 8% 26%  
152 5% 19%  
153 3% 13%  
154 6% 10%  
155 0.7% 4%  
156 1.1% 4%  
157 1.4% 3%  
158 0.5% 1.2%  
159 0.3% 0.7% Last Result
160 0.2% 0.4%  
161 0.1% 0.2%  
162 0% 0.1%  
163 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet – Sverigedemokraterna

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
126 0.1% 100%  
127 0.2% 99.9%  
128 0.5% 99.7%  
129 0.5% 99.2%  
130 1.0% 98.7%  
131 3% 98%  
132 8% 94%  
133 4% 86% Last Result
134 10% 82%  
135 4% 73%  
136 19% 69%  
137 6% 50%  
138 10% 43% Median
139 8% 33%  
140 4% 25%  
141 6% 21%  
142 3% 15%  
143 4% 12%  
144 3% 8%  
145 2% 5%  
146 1.3% 3%  
147 1.3% 2%  
148 0.3% 0.5%  
149 0.1% 0.2%  
150 0% 0.1%  
151 0% 0.1%  
152 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna – Kristdemokraterna

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
118 0.1% 100%  
119 0.1% 99.9%  
120 0.2% 99.8%  
121 0.5% 99.6%  
122 0.6% 99.0%  
123 2% 98%  
124 2% 97%  
125 6% 95%  
126 1.1% 89%  
127 3% 88%  
128 3% 85%  
129 3% 82%  
130 1.5% 78%  
131 1.2% 77%  
132 3% 76%  
133 8% 72%  
134 14% 65%  
135 9% 51%  
136 3% 41%  
137 4% 38%  
138 9% 34% Median
139 11% 25%  
140 3% 14%  
141 6% 11% Last Result
142 2% 5%  
143 2% 3%  
144 0.5% 0.7%  
145 0.2% 0.2%  
146 0% 0%  

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
114 0.2% 100%  
115 0.2% 99.8%  
116 2% 99.6%  
117 0.6% 98%  
118 8% 97%  
119 11% 90%  
120 6% 79%  
121 3% 73%  
122 15% 70%  
123 10% 55%  
124 6% 46% Median
125 7% 40%  
126 5% 33%  
127 9% 28%  
128 3% 19%  
129 3% 16%  
130 6% 13%  
131 3% 7%  
132 2% 4%  
133 0.4% 2%  
134 0.7% 1.4% Last Result
135 0.5% 0.7%  
136 0.1% 0.2%  
137 0.1% 0.1%  
138 0% 0.1%  
139 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 99.9%  
110 0% 99.9%  
111 0% 99.9%  
112 0% 99.9%  
113 0.2% 99.8%  
114 0.4% 99.7%  
115 1.2% 99.3%  
116 2% 98%  
117 3% 96%  
118 7% 93%  
119 14% 86%  
120 7% 72%  
121 8% 65%  
122 9% 57%  
123 5% 48% Median
124 13% 43%  
125 9% 30% Last Result
126 6% 21%  
127 6% 15%  
128 4% 9%  
129 3% 6%  
130 0.9% 2%  
131 0.4% 1.4%  
132 0.3% 1.0%  
133 0.4% 0.7%  
134 0.3% 0.3%  
135 0% 0.1%  
136 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
100 0.1% 100%  
101 0.2% 99.9%  
102 0.6% 99.6%  
103 2% 99.0%  
104 1.0% 97%  
105 1.4% 96%  
106 5% 95%  
107 4% 90%  
108 1.3% 86%  
109 2% 85%  
110 3% 82%  
111 2% 80%  
112 2% 78%  
113 2% 75%  
114 2% 73%  
115 8% 71%  
116 14% 64%  
117 8% 49%  
118 4% 41%  
119 10% 37% Median
120 8% 27%  
121 7% 19%  
122 6% 12% Last Result
123 3% 6%  
124 2% 4%  
125 0.7% 1.4%  
126 0.5% 0.6%  
127 0.1% 0.1%  
128 0% 0%  

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Miljöpartiet de gröna

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 99.9%  
105 0% 99.9%  
106 0.2% 99.9%  
107 0.6% 99.7%  
108 8% 99.2%  
109 12% 91%  
110 9% 79%  
111 3% 70%  
112 1.4% 67%  
113 3% 66%  
114 5% 63%  
115 13% 58% Median
116 20% 45%  
117 11% 25%  
118 6% 14%  
119 4% 8%  
120 3% 5%  
121 0.3% 2%  
122 0.2% 2%  
123 0.2% 1.3%  
124 0.5% 1.1%  
125 0.4% 0.6%  
126 0.2% 0.2%  
127 0% 0.1%  
128 0% 0%  
129 0% 0%  
130 0% 0%  
131 0% 0%  
132 0% 0%  
133 0% 0%  
134 0% 0%  
135 0% 0%  
136 0% 0%  
137 0% 0%  
138 0% 0% Last Result

Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
94 0.1% 100%  
95 0.1% 99.9%  
96 0.5% 99.8%  
97 2% 99.3%  
98 2% 97%  
99 4% 95%  
100 7% 91%  
101 16% 85%  
102 4% 69%  
103 11% 65%  
104 12% 54% Median
105 11% 42%  
106 8% 31% Last Result
107 9% 23%  
108 4% 14%  
109 3% 10%  
110 3% 7%  
111 2% 3%  
112 0.8% 2%  
113 0.3% 0.8%  
114 0.3% 0.5%  
115 0.1% 0.2%  
116 0.1% 0.1%  
117 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations