Opinion Poll by Novus for SVT, 13–21 August 2018
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti | 31.0% | 25.1% | 23.8–26.5% | 23.4–26.9% | 23.1–27.2% | 22.4–27.9% |
| Moderata samlingspartiet | 23.3% | 19.3% | 18.1–20.6% | 17.8–21.0% | 17.5–21.3% | 16.9–21.9% |
| Sverigedemokraterna | 12.9% | 19.2% | 18.0–20.5% | 17.6–20.9% | 17.4–21.2% | 16.8–21.8% |
| Centerpartiet | 6.1% | 10.0% | 9.1–11.0% | 8.8–11.3% | 8.6–11.5% | 8.2–12.0% |
| Vänsterpartiet | 5.7% | 8.7% | 7.9–9.7% | 7.7–10.0% | 7.5–10.2% | 7.1–10.7% |
| Miljöpartiet de gröna | 6.9% | 6.2% | 5.5–7.0% | 5.3–7.3% | 5.1–7.5% | 4.8–7.9% |
| Liberalerna | 5.4% | 5.3% | 4.6–6.1% | 4.5–6.3% | 4.3–6.5% | 4.0–6.9% |
| Kristdemokraterna | 4.6% | 3.5% | 3.0–4.1% | 2.8–4.3% | 2.7–4.5% | 2.5–4.8% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti | 113 | 93 | 87–98 | 86–99 | 84–100 | 82–103 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet | 84 | 71 | 66–76 | 65–77 | 64–79 | 62–81 |
| Sverigedemokraterna | 49 | 71 | 66–75 | 65–77 | 64–78 | 61–80 |
| Centerpartiet | 22 | 37 | 34–40 | 32–42 | 32–42 | 30–44 |
| Vänsterpartiet | 21 | 32 | 29–36 | 28–37 | 27–37 | 26–39 |
| Miljöpartiet de gröna | 25 | 23 | 20–26 | 19–27 | 19–27 | 18–29 |
| Liberalerna | 19 | 19 | 17–22 | 16–23 | 16–24 | 0–25 |
| Kristdemokraterna | 16 | 0 | 0–15 | 0–15 | 0–16 | 0–17 |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 79 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 80 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 81 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 82 | 0.3% | 99.5% | |
| 83 | 0.8% | 99.2% | |
| 84 | 0.9% | 98% | |
| 85 | 2% | 97% | |
| 86 | 2% | 96% | |
| 87 | 4% | 93% | |
| 88 | 5% | 89% | |
| 89 | 6% | 85% | |
| 90 | 10% | 79% | |
| 91 | 9% | 69% | |
| 92 | 9% | 60% | |
| 93 | 11% | 51% | Median |
| 94 | 7% | 40% | |
| 95 | 10% | 33% | |
| 96 | 7% | 23% | |
| 97 | 5% | 15% | |
| 98 | 4% | 10% | |
| 99 | 2% | 6% | |
| 100 | 2% | 4% | |
| 101 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 102 | 0.7% | 1.4% | |
| 103 | 0.2% | 0.7% | |
| 104 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 105 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 106 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 107 | 0% | 0% | |
| 108 | 0% | 0% | |
| 109 | 0% | 0% | |
| 110 | 0% | 0% | |
| 111 | 0% | 0% | |
| 112 | 0% | 0% | |
| 113 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Moderata samlingspartiet
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Moderata samlingspartiet page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 59 | 0% | 100% | |
| 60 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 61 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 62 | 0.4% | 99.6% | |
| 63 | 0.8% | 99.2% | |
| 64 | 1.0% | 98% | |
| 65 | 3% | 97% | |
| 66 | 7% | 94% | |
| 67 | 6% | 87% | |
| 68 | 5% | 82% | |
| 69 | 7% | 76% | |
| 70 | 10% | 69% | |
| 71 | 11% | 59% | Median |
| 72 | 9% | 48% | |
| 73 | 7% | 39% | |
| 74 | 11% | 32% | |
| 75 | 7% | 21% | |
| 76 | 8% | 14% | |
| 77 | 2% | 6% | |
| 78 | 1.1% | 4% | |
| 79 | 1.0% | 3% | |
| 80 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 81 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 82 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 83 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 84 | 0% | 0.1% | Last Result |
| 85 | 0% | 0% |
Sverigedemokraterna
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sverigedemokraterna page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 49 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 50 | 0% | 100% | |
| 51 | 0% | 100% | |
| 52 | 0% | 100% | |
| 53 | 0% | 100% | |
| 54 | 0% | 100% | |
| 55 | 0% | 100% | |
| 56 | 0% | 100% | |
| 57 | 0% | 100% | |
| 58 | 0% | 100% | |
| 59 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 60 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 61 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 62 | 0.5% | 99.5% | |
| 63 | 1.1% | 99.0% | |
| 64 | 2% | 98% | |
| 65 | 3% | 96% | |
| 66 | 5% | 93% | |
| 67 | 6% | 88% | |
| 68 | 8% | 82% | |
| 69 | 11% | 74% | |
| 70 | 11% | 63% | |
| 71 | 11% | 51% | Median |
| 72 | 9% | 40% | |
| 73 | 7% | 32% | |
| 74 | 9% | 25% | |
| 75 | 6% | 16% | |
| 76 | 4% | 10% | |
| 77 | 2% | 6% | |
| 78 | 2% | 4% | |
| 79 | 1.5% | 2% | |
| 80 | 0.4% | 0.9% | |
| 81 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 82 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 83 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 84 | 0% | 0% |
Centerpartiet
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Centerpartiet page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 23 | 0% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0% | 100% | |
| 26 | 0% | 100% | |
| 27 | 0% | 100% | |
| 28 | 0% | 100% | |
| 29 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 30 | 0.5% | 99.8% | |
| 31 | 1.3% | 99.3% | |
| 32 | 3% | 98% | |
| 33 | 4% | 95% | |
| 34 | 10% | 91% | |
| 35 | 14% | 81% | |
| 36 | 9% | 67% | |
| 37 | 17% | 58% | Median |
| 38 | 14% | 41% | |
| 39 | 10% | 28% | |
| 40 | 8% | 18% | |
| 41 | 4% | 10% | |
| 42 | 3% | 5% | |
| 43 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 44 | 0.7% | 1.1% | |
| 45 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 46 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% |
Vänsterpartiet
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vänsterpartiet page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 22 | 0% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 26 | 0.7% | 99.7% | |
| 27 | 2% | 99.0% | |
| 28 | 4% | 97% | |
| 29 | 6% | 93% | |
| 30 | 9% | 87% | |
| 31 | 16% | 78% | |
| 32 | 13% | 62% | Median |
| 33 | 18% | 49% | |
| 34 | 11% | 31% | |
| 35 | 10% | 21% | |
| 36 | 4% | 11% | |
| 37 | 5% | 7% | |
| 38 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 39 | 0.8% | 1.3% | |
| 40 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 41 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 42 | 0% | 0% |
Miljöpartiet de gröna
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljöpartiet de gröna page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 18 | 1.2% | 99.6% | |
| 19 | 3% | 98% | |
| 20 | 6% | 95% | |
| 21 | 10% | 89% | |
| 22 | 21% | 79% | |
| 23 | 16% | 58% | Median |
| 24 | 15% | 42% | |
| 25 | 16% | 27% | Last Result |
| 26 | 5% | 10% | |
| 27 | 3% | 6% | |
| 28 | 1.5% | 2% | |
| 29 | 0.5% | 0.8% | |
| 30 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 31 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 32 | 0% | 0% |
Liberalerna
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberalerna page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.5% | 100% | |
| 1 | 0% | 99.5% | |
| 2 | 0% | 99.5% | |
| 3 | 0% | 99.5% | |
| 4 | 0% | 99.5% | |
| 5 | 0% | 99.5% | |
| 6 | 0% | 99.5% | |
| 7 | 0% | 99.5% | |
| 8 | 0% | 99.5% | |
| 9 | 0% | 99.5% | |
| 10 | 0% | 99.5% | |
| 11 | 0% | 99.5% | |
| 12 | 0% | 99.5% | |
| 13 | 0% | 99.5% | |
| 14 | 0% | 99.5% | |
| 15 | 1.3% | 99.5% | |
| 16 | 3% | 98% | |
| 17 | 7% | 95% | |
| 18 | 16% | 88% | |
| 19 | 26% | 72% | Last Result, Median |
| 20 | 16% | 46% | |
| 21 | 12% | 30% | |
| 22 | 9% | 18% | |
| 23 | 5% | 9% | |
| 24 | 2% | 4% | |
| 25 | 0.8% | 1.2% | |
| 26 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 27 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 28 | 0% | 0% |
Kristdemokraterna
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristdemokraterna page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 84% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 0% | 16% | |
| 2 | 0% | 16% | |
| 3 | 0% | 16% | |
| 4 | 0% | 16% | |
| 5 | 0% | 16% | |
| 6 | 0% | 16% | |
| 7 | 0% | 16% | |
| 8 | 0% | 16% | |
| 9 | 0% | 16% | |
| 10 | 0% | 16% | |
| 11 | 0% | 16% | |
| 12 | 0% | 16% | |
| 13 | 0% | 16% | |
| 14 | 5% | 16% | |
| 15 | 8% | 11% | |
| 16 | 3% | 4% | Last Result |
| 17 | 0.8% | 1.1% | |
| 18 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 20 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet | 219 | 201 | 100% | 193–207 | 191–210 | 190–211 | 185–214 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet | 197 | 164 | 1.2% | 157–170 | 155–172 | 154–173 | 150–177 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna | 159 | 148 | 0% | 141–154 | 140–155 | 138–157 | 134–160 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Sverigedemokraterna – Kristdemokraterna | 149 | 144 | 0% | 138–151 | 136–154 | 135–156 | 132–160 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Sverigedemokraterna | 133 | 143 | 0% | 135–148 | 133–150 | 132–151 | 129–155 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna – Kristdemokraterna | 141 | 130 | 0% | 124–137 | 122–140 | 120–143 | 117–146 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna | 125 | 128 | 0% | 122–134 | 120–135 | 118–137 | 115–139 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet | 134 | 125 | 0% | 119–130 | 117–132 | 115–134 | 113–136 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Miljöpartiet de gröna | 138 | 116 | 0% | 110–121 | 108–123 | 107–124 | 103–127 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna | 122 | 110 | 0% | 105–118 | 103–121 | 101–123 | 99–127 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet | 106 | 108 | 0% | 102–114 | 100–115 | 100–117 | 96–119 |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 182 | 0% | 100% | |
| 183 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 184 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 185 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 186 | 0.6% | 99.4% | |
| 187 | 0.4% | 98.8% | |
| 188 | 0.5% | 98% | |
| 189 | 0.3% | 98% | |
| 190 | 0.6% | 98% | |
| 191 | 4% | 97% | |
| 192 | 2% | 93% | |
| 193 | 2% | 91% | |
| 194 | 2% | 89% | |
| 195 | 2% | 87% | |
| 196 | 5% | 85% | |
| 197 | 5% | 80% | |
| 198 | 8% | 75% | |
| 199 | 7% | 67% | |
| 200 | 4% | 60% | |
| 201 | 6% | 56% | Median |
| 202 | 7% | 49% | |
| 203 | 10% | 42% | |
| 204 | 5% | 32% | |
| 205 | 9% | 26% | |
| 206 | 4% | 18% | |
| 207 | 5% | 14% | |
| 208 | 2% | 9% | |
| 209 | 2% | 7% | |
| 210 | 2% | 5% | |
| 211 | 2% | 3% | |
| 212 | 0.6% | 1.5% | |
| 213 | 0.2% | 0.9% | |
| 214 | 0.3% | 0.7% | |
| 215 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 216 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 217 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 218 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 219 | 0% | 0.1% | Last Result |
| 220 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 146 | 0% | 100% | |
| 147 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 148 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 149 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 150 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 151 | 0.4% | 99.4% | |
| 152 | 0.7% | 99.0% | |
| 153 | 0.6% | 98% | |
| 154 | 2% | 98% | |
| 155 | 2% | 96% | |
| 156 | 2% | 94% | |
| 157 | 4% | 92% | |
| 158 | 4% | 88% | |
| 159 | 5% | 84% | |
| 160 | 4% | 79% | |
| 161 | 8% | 75% | |
| 162 | 5% | 67% | |
| 163 | 8% | 62% | |
| 164 | 7% | 54% | Median |
| 165 | 9% | 47% | |
| 166 | 6% | 37% | |
| 167 | 7% | 32% | |
| 168 | 5% | 24% | |
| 169 | 5% | 20% | |
| 170 | 7% | 15% | |
| 171 | 2% | 8% | |
| 172 | 2% | 7% | |
| 173 | 2% | 5% | |
| 174 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 175 | 0.4% | 1.2% | Majority |
| 176 | 0.3% | 0.8% | |
| 177 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 178 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 179 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 180 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 181 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 182 | 0% | 0% | |
| 183 | 0% | 0% | |
| 184 | 0% | 0% | |
| 185 | 0% | 0% | |
| 186 | 0% | 0% | |
| 187 | 0% | 0% | |
| 188 | 0% | 0% | |
| 189 | 0% | 0% | |
| 190 | 0% | 0% | |
| 191 | 0% | 0% | |
| 192 | 0% | 0% | |
| 193 | 0% | 0% | |
| 194 | 0% | 0% | |
| 195 | 0% | 0% | |
| 196 | 0% | 0% | |
| 197 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 131 | 0% | 100% | |
| 132 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 133 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 134 | 0.2% | 99.5% | |
| 135 | 0.3% | 99.3% | |
| 136 | 0.4% | 99.0% | |
| 137 | 0.6% | 98.6% | |
| 138 | 0.9% | 98% | |
| 139 | 2% | 97% | |
| 140 | 3% | 95% | |
| 141 | 3% | 93% | |
| 142 | 3% | 90% | |
| 143 | 3% | 87% | |
| 144 | 3% | 84% | |
| 145 | 7% | 81% | |
| 146 | 9% | 74% | |
| 147 | 9% | 65% | |
| 148 | 11% | 56% | Median |
| 149 | 10% | 46% | |
| 150 | 6% | 36% | |
| 151 | 6% | 30% | |
| 152 | 7% | 24% | |
| 153 | 6% | 16% | |
| 154 | 4% | 11% | |
| 155 | 3% | 7% | |
| 156 | 0.8% | 4% | |
| 157 | 1.3% | 4% | |
| 158 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 159 | 0.6% | 1.3% | Last Result |
| 160 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 161 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 162 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 163 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 164 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 165 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Sverigedemokraterna – Kristdemokraterna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 129 | 0% | 100% | |
| 130 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 131 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 132 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 133 | 0.8% | 99.5% | |
| 134 | 0.7% | 98.7% | |
| 135 | 2% | 98% | |
| 136 | 2% | 96% | |
| 137 | 3% | 94% | |
| 138 | 3% | 92% | |
| 139 | 5% | 89% | |
| 140 | 5% | 84% | |
| 141 | 10% | 79% | |
| 142 | 5% | 69% | Median |
| 143 | 9% | 64% | |
| 144 | 7% | 55% | |
| 145 | 9% | 48% | |
| 146 | 8% | 39% | |
| 147 | 5% | 31% | |
| 148 | 6% | 26% | |
| 149 | 5% | 20% | Last Result |
| 150 | 5% | 16% | |
| 151 | 2% | 11% | |
| 152 | 2% | 9% | |
| 153 | 1.3% | 7% | |
| 154 | 1.2% | 6% | |
| 155 | 1.3% | 4% | |
| 156 | 0.7% | 3% | |
| 157 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 158 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 159 | 0.6% | 1.3% | |
| 160 | 0.3% | 0.7% | |
| 161 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 162 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 163 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 164 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 165 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Sverigedemokraterna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 126 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 127 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 128 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 129 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 130 | 0.5% | 99.4% | |
| 131 | 0.4% | 99.0% | |
| 132 | 2% | 98.5% | |
| 133 | 2% | 96% | Last Result |
| 134 | 1.4% | 94% | |
| 135 | 5% | 93% | |
| 136 | 3% | 88% | |
| 137 | 4% | 85% | |
| 138 | 3% | 81% | |
| 139 | 6% | 78% | |
| 140 | 6% | 72% | |
| 141 | 10% | 66% | |
| 142 | 6% | 56% | Median |
| 143 | 10% | 50% | |
| 144 | 7% | 40% | |
| 145 | 9% | 33% | |
| 146 | 7% | 24% | |
| 147 | 4% | 18% | |
| 148 | 5% | 14% | |
| 149 | 2% | 8% | |
| 150 | 3% | 6% | |
| 151 | 1.0% | 3% | |
| 152 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 153 | 0.5% | 1.4% | |
| 154 | 0.3% | 0.9% | |
| 155 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 156 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 157 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 158 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 159 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna – Kristdemokraterna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 112 | 0% | 100% | |
| 113 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 114 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 115 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 116 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 117 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 118 | 0.4% | 99.4% | |
| 119 | 0.4% | 99.0% | |
| 120 | 1.2% | 98.6% | |
| 121 | 1.0% | 97% | |
| 122 | 2% | 97% | |
| 123 | 3% | 94% | |
| 124 | 3% | 91% | |
| 125 | 4% | 88% | |
| 126 | 8% | 84% | |
| 127 | 10% | 75% | Median |
| 128 | 7% | 66% | |
| 129 | 6% | 59% | |
| 130 | 11% | 54% | |
| 131 | 6% | 42% | |
| 132 | 7% | 37% | |
| 133 | 4% | 29% | |
| 134 | 6% | 25% | |
| 135 | 4% | 20% | |
| 136 | 4% | 15% | |
| 137 | 2% | 11% | |
| 138 | 2% | 9% | |
| 139 | 2% | 7% | |
| 140 | 1.2% | 6% | |
| 141 | 1.3% | 4% | Last Result |
| 142 | 0.6% | 3% | |
| 143 | 0.9% | 3% | |
| 144 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 145 | 0.4% | 1.1% | |
| 146 | 0.2% | 0.7% | |
| 147 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 148 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 149 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 150 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 151 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 109 | 0% | 100% | |
| 110 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 111 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 112 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 113 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 114 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 115 | 0.4% | 99.5% | |
| 116 | 0.2% | 99.1% | |
| 117 | 1.0% | 98.9% | |
| 118 | 0.8% | 98% | |
| 119 | 1.1% | 97% | |
| 120 | 4% | 96% | |
| 121 | 2% | 92% | |
| 122 | 5% | 90% | |
| 123 | 4% | 86% | |
| 124 | 4% | 81% | |
| 125 | 6% | 77% | Last Result |
| 126 | 9% | 72% | |
| 127 | 10% | 62% | Median |
| 128 | 8% | 52% | |
| 129 | 6% | 45% | |
| 130 | 11% | 39% | |
| 131 | 6% | 28% | |
| 132 | 7% | 22% | |
| 133 | 4% | 15% | |
| 134 | 3% | 11% | |
| 135 | 4% | 8% | |
| 136 | 2% | 4% | |
| 137 | 1.0% | 3% | |
| 138 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 139 | 0.3% | 0.8% | |
| 140 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 141 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 142 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 143 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 144 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 109 | 0% | 100% | |
| 110 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 111 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 112 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 113 | 0.4% | 99.5% | |
| 114 | 0.6% | 99.1% | |
| 115 | 1.3% | 98.5% | |
| 116 | 1.2% | 97% | |
| 117 | 2% | 96% | |
| 118 | 3% | 94% | |
| 119 | 4% | 92% | |
| 120 | 4% | 88% | |
| 121 | 5% | 83% | |
| 122 | 5% | 78% | |
| 123 | 11% | 73% | |
| 124 | 7% | 62% | |
| 125 | 9% | 55% | Median |
| 126 | 8% | 46% | |
| 127 | 9% | 38% | |
| 128 | 7% | 29% | |
| 129 | 4% | 21% | |
| 130 | 7% | 17% | |
| 131 | 4% | 10% | |
| 132 | 1.3% | 6% | |
| 133 | 2% | 5% | |
| 134 | 1.1% | 3% | Last Result |
| 135 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 136 | 0.6% | 1.1% | |
| 137 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 138 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 139 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 140 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 141 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Miljöpartiet de gröna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 100 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 101 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 102 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 103 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 104 | 0.2% | 99.5% | |
| 105 | 0.7% | 99.2% | |
| 106 | 0.9% | 98.6% | |
| 107 | 1.5% | 98% | |
| 108 | 2% | 96% | |
| 109 | 3% | 95% | |
| 110 | 3% | 92% | |
| 111 | 3% | 88% | |
| 112 | 7% | 85% | |
| 113 | 5% | 78% | |
| 114 | 11% | 73% | |
| 115 | 9% | 62% | |
| 116 | 12% | 53% | Median |
| 117 | 10% | 41% | |
| 118 | 8% | 31% | |
| 119 | 8% | 23% | |
| 120 | 3% | 15% | |
| 121 | 5% | 13% | |
| 122 | 2% | 7% | |
| 123 | 2% | 6% | |
| 124 | 2% | 3% | |
| 125 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 126 | 0.5% | 1.1% | |
| 127 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 128 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 129 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 130 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 131 | 0% | 0% | |
| 132 | 0% | 0% | |
| 133 | 0% | 0% | |
| 134 | 0% | 0% | |
| 135 | 0% | 0% | |
| 136 | 0% | 0% | |
| 137 | 0% | 0% | |
| 138 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 96 | 0% | 100% | |
| 97 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 98 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 99 | 0.3% | 99.6% | |
| 100 | 0.6% | 99.4% | |
| 101 | 1.3% | 98.8% | |
| 102 | 2% | 97% | |
| 103 | 3% | 95% | |
| 104 | 3% | 93% | |
| 105 | 4% | 90% | |
| 106 | 5% | 86% | |
| 107 | 9% | 81% | |
| 108 | 11% | 72% | Median |
| 109 | 8% | 61% | |
| 110 | 8% | 53% | |
| 111 | 8% | 45% | |
| 112 | 5% | 37% | |
| 113 | 6% | 32% | |
| 114 | 6% | 27% | |
| 115 | 4% | 20% | |
| 116 | 3% | 16% | |
| 117 | 3% | 13% | |
| 118 | 2% | 10% | |
| 119 | 2% | 9% | |
| 120 | 2% | 7% | |
| 121 | 0.7% | 5% | |
| 122 | 1.2% | 4% | Last Result |
| 123 | 0.9% | 3% | |
| 124 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 125 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 126 | 0.5% | 1.1% | |
| 127 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 128 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 129 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 130 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 131 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 132 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 94 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 95 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 96 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 97 | 0.4% | 99.4% | |
| 98 | 0.6% | 99.0% | |
| 99 | 0.6% | 98% | |
| 100 | 3% | 98% | |
| 101 | 3% | 95% | |
| 102 | 3% | 92% | |
| 103 | 5% | 89% | |
| 104 | 4% | 84% | |
| 105 | 5% | 80% | |
| 106 | 6% | 75% | Last Result |
| 107 | 9% | 69% | |
| 108 | 12% | 59% | Median |
| 109 | 8% | 48% | |
| 110 | 8% | 39% | |
| 111 | 8% | 31% | |
| 112 | 5% | 22% | |
| 113 | 5% | 17% | |
| 114 | 4% | 12% | |
| 115 | 4% | 8% | |
| 116 | 2% | 4% | |
| 117 | 1.2% | 3% | |
| 118 | 0.8% | 1.4% | |
| 119 | 0.3% | 0.7% | |
| 120 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 121 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 122 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 123 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 124 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Novus
- Commissioner(s): SVT
- Fieldwork period: 13–21 August 2018
Calculations
- Sample size: 1662
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 1.72%