Opinion Poll by Sifo for Svenska Dagbladet, 20–23 August 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti 31.0% 25.4% 24.5–26.3% 24.3–26.5% 24.1–26.7% 23.7–27.2%
Sverigedemokraterna 12.9% 18.6% 17.8–19.4% 17.6–19.6% 17.4–19.8% 17.1–20.2%
Moderata samlingspartiet 23.3% 17.6% 16.9–18.4% 16.6–18.6% 16.5–18.8% 16.1–19.2%
Centerpartiet 6.1% 10.3% 9.7–10.9% 9.5–11.1% 9.4–11.3% 9.1–11.6%
Vänsterpartiet 5.7% 9.5% 8.9–10.1% 8.8–10.3% 8.6–10.4% 8.4–10.7%
Miljöpartiet de gröna 6.9% 6.1% 5.6–6.6% 5.5–6.8% 5.4–6.9% 5.2–7.1%
Liberalerna 5.4% 5.9% 5.5–6.4% 5.3–6.6% 5.2–6.7% 5.0–6.9%
Kristdemokraterna 4.6% 4.7% 4.3–5.2% 4.2–5.3% 4.1–5.4% 3.9–5.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti 113 91 87–93 86–94 86–95 84–97
Sverigedemokraterna 49 66 63–69 63–70 62–71 61–72
Moderata samlingspartiet 84 63 60–65 59–66 59–67 57–68
Centerpartiet 22 37 34–39 34–39 33–40 32–41
Vänsterpartiet 21 34 32–36 31–36 31–37 30–38
Miljöpartiet de gröna 25 22 20–23 20–24 19–24 19–25
Liberalerna 19 21 19–23 19–23 19–24 18–25
Kristdemokraterna 16 17 15–18 15–19 15–19 0–20

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
83 0.2% 100%  
84 0.6% 99.8%  
85 1.5% 99.2%  
86 3% 98%  
87 7% 94%  
88 13% 88%  
89 11% 74%  
90 13% 63%  
91 19% 50% Median
92 12% 31%  
93 10% 20%  
94 5% 10%  
95 3% 5%  
96 1.4% 2%  
97 0.5% 0.7%  
98 0.2% 0.3%  
99 0.1% 0.1%  
100 0% 0%  
101 0% 0%  
102 0% 0%  
103 0% 0%  
104 0% 0%  
105 0% 0%  
106 0% 0%  
107 0% 0%  
108 0% 0%  
109 0% 0%  
110 0% 0%  
111 0% 0%  
112 0% 0%  
113 0% 0% Last Result

Sverigedemokraterna

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sverigedemokraterna page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0% 100% Last Result
50 0% 100%  
51 0% 100%  
52 0% 100%  
53 0% 100%  
54 0% 100%  
55 0% 100%  
56 0% 100%  
57 0% 100%  
58 0% 100%  
59 0.1% 100%  
60 0.2% 99.9%  
61 0.8% 99.7%  
62 3% 98.9%  
63 9% 96%  
64 15% 88%  
65 17% 73%  
66 15% 56% Median
67 12% 41%  
68 13% 29%  
69 9% 16%  
70 4% 7%  
71 2% 3%  
72 0.5% 0.8%  
73 0.2% 0.3%  
74 0% 0.1%  
75 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Moderata samlingspartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0.1% 100%  
57 0.5% 99.9%  
58 2% 99.3%  
59 6% 98%  
60 10% 91%  
61 12% 81%  
62 15% 69%  
63 21% 54% Median
64 15% 33%  
65 9% 18%  
66 5% 9%  
67 2% 3%  
68 0.9% 1.3%  
69 0.2% 0.4%  
70 0.1% 0.2%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0% Last Result

Centerpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Centerpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0% 100% Last Result
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0% 100%  
28 0% 100%  
29 0% 100%  
30 0% 100%  
31 0.1% 100%  
32 0.5% 99.9%  
33 2% 99.4%  
34 8% 97%  
35 13% 90%  
36 26% 77%  
37 20% 51% Median
38 16% 31%  
39 11% 15%  
40 4% 5%  
41 0.9% 1.2%  
42 0.2% 0.3%  
43 0.1% 0.1%  
44 0% 0%  

Vänsterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vänsterpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0% 100% Last Result
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0% 100%  
28 0% 100%  
29 0.3% 100%  
30 2% 99.7%  
31 4% 98%  
32 12% 94%  
33 22% 81%  
34 28% 59% Median
35 17% 31%  
36 10% 15%  
37 3% 5%  
38 1.2% 2%  
39 0.3% 0.3%  
40 0.1% 0.1%  
41 0% 0%  

Miljöpartiet de gröna

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljöpartiet de gröna page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.4% 100%  
19 4% 99.6%  
20 12% 96%  
21 26% 84%  
22 30% 57% Median
23 19% 27%  
24 6% 8%  
25 2% 2% Last Result
26 0.4% 0.4%  
27 0% 0%  

Liberalerna

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberalerna page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0.2% 100%  
18 2% 99.8%  
19 9% 98% Last Result
20 22% 89%  
21 32% 67% Median
22 22% 35%  
23 11% 14%  
24 3% 3%  
25 0.5% 0.5%  
26 0.1% 0.1%  
27 0% 0%  

Kristdemokraterna

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristdemokraterna page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 1.1% 100%  
1 0% 98.9%  
2 0% 98.9%  
3 0% 98.9%  
4 0% 98.9%  
5 0% 98.9%  
6 0% 98.9%  
7 0% 98.9%  
8 0% 98.9%  
9 0% 98.9%  
10 0% 98.9%  
11 0% 98.9%  
12 0% 98.9%  
13 0% 98.9%  
14 0.9% 98.9%  
15 14% 98%  
16 23% 84% Last Result
17 32% 61% Median
18 21% 29%  
19 7% 8%  
20 1.4% 1.5%  
21 0.1% 0.1%  
22 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet 219 190 100% 186–193 185–194 184–195 182–199
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet 197 153 0% 149–156 148–158 147–159 146–162
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna 159 146 0% 142–149 141–151 141–152 139–154
Sverigedemokraterna – Moderata samlingspartiet – Kristdemokraterna 149 145 0% 142–149 141–150 140–151 136–152
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna – Kristdemokraterna 141 137 0% 133–141 132–142 131–143 126–144
Sverigedemokraterna – Moderata samlingspartiet 133 129 0% 125–132 124–133 124–134 122–137
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet 134 124 0% 121–128 120–129 119–130 117–132
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna 125 120 0% 117–124 116–125 115–126 113–128
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna 122 116 0% 112–120 111–120 110–121 104–123
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Miljöpartiet de gröna 138 112 0% 109–115 108–116 107–117 105–119
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet 106 99 0% 96–103 95–104 94–104 93–106

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
180 0% 100%  
181 0.1% 99.9%  
182 0.4% 99.8%  
183 1.0% 99.4%  
184 2% 98%  
185 5% 96%  
186 5% 91%  
187 8% 86%  
188 13% 78%  
189 15% 65%  
190 16% 50%  
191 9% 34% Median
192 11% 25%  
193 5% 14%  
194 4% 9%  
195 2% 5%  
196 1.0% 2%  
197 0.4% 1.3%  
198 0.3% 0.9%  
199 0.1% 0.6%  
200 0.2% 0.5%  
201 0.1% 0.3%  
202 0.1% 0.2%  
203 0.1% 0.1%  
204 0% 0.1%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0% Last Result

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
144 0.1% 100%  
145 0.2% 99.9%  
146 0.6% 99.6%  
147 2% 99.1%  
148 3% 97%  
149 6% 95%  
150 9% 89%  
151 13% 80%  
152 11% 67%  
153 16% 55%  
154 10% 40% Median
155 10% 30%  
156 10% 20%  
157 5% 10%  
158 2% 5%  
159 1.3% 3%  
160 0.6% 1.4%  
161 0.3% 0.8%  
162 0.3% 0.5%  
163 0.1% 0.3%  
164 0% 0.1%  
165 0% 0.1%  
166 0% 0.1%  
167 0% 0%  
168 0% 0%  
169 0% 0%  
170 0% 0%  
171 0% 0%  
172 0% 0%  
173 0% 0%  
174 0% 0%  
175 0% 0% Majority
176 0% 0%  
177 0% 0%  
178 0% 0%  
179 0% 0%  
180 0% 0%  
181 0% 0%  
182 0% 0%  
183 0% 0%  
184 0% 0%  
185 0% 0%  
186 0% 0%  
187 0% 0%  
188 0% 0%  
189 0% 0%  
190 0% 0%  
191 0% 0%  
192 0% 0%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0% Last Result

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
137 0.1% 100%  
138 0.3% 99.9%  
139 0.4% 99.6%  
140 1.1% 99.2%  
141 5% 98%  
142 4% 93%  
143 5% 88%  
144 14% 83%  
145 15% 69%  
146 10% 54%  
147 14% 44% Median
148 13% 29%  
149 7% 17%  
150 5% 10%  
151 2% 5%  
152 2% 3%  
153 0.6% 1.3%  
154 0.2% 0.7%  
155 0.2% 0.5%  
156 0.2% 0.3%  
157 0.1% 0.1%  
158 0% 0%  
159 0% 0% Last Result

Sverigedemokraterna – Moderata samlingspartiet – Kristdemokraterna

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
131 0.1% 100%  
132 0.1% 99.9%  
133 0% 99.8%  
134 0.1% 99.8%  
135 0.2% 99.7%  
136 0.2% 99.5%  
137 0.2% 99.3%  
138 0.5% 99.1%  
139 0.6% 98.5%  
140 2% 98%  
141 4% 96%  
142 7% 92%  
143 10% 85%  
144 11% 75%  
145 18% 64%  
146 11% 46% Median
147 14% 35%  
148 9% 22%  
149 6% 13% Last Result
150 3% 6%  
151 2% 3%  
152 0.9% 1.4%  
153 0.4% 0.5%  
154 0.1% 0.1%  
155 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna – Kristdemokraterna

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
122 0% 100%  
123 0.1% 99.9%  
124 0.2% 99.8%  
125 0.1% 99.7%  
126 0.2% 99.6%  
127 0.1% 99.3%  
128 0.1% 99.2%  
129 0.4% 99.1%  
130 0.5% 98.7%  
131 1.3% 98%  
132 3% 97%  
133 5% 94%  
134 10% 89%  
135 8% 79%  
136 13% 70%  
137 12% 57%  
138 15% 45% Median
139 9% 30%  
140 10% 21%  
141 4% 11% Last Result
142 4% 7%  
143 2% 3%  
144 0.6% 0.9%  
145 0.2% 0.3%  
146 0.1% 0.1%  
147 0% 0%  

Sverigedemokraterna – Moderata samlingspartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
120 0.1% 100%  
121 0.2% 99.9%  
122 0.7% 99.7%  
123 1.4% 99.0%  
124 3% 98%  
125 7% 95%  
126 10% 88%  
127 13% 78%  
128 15% 65%  
129 13% 50% Median
130 14% 37%  
131 9% 24%  
132 7% 15%  
133 3% 8% Last Result
134 2% 4%  
135 1.2% 2%  
136 0.5% 1.1%  
137 0.3% 0.6%  
138 0.2% 0.3%  
139 0.1% 0.1%  
140 0% 0%  

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
116 0.2% 100%  
117 0.3% 99.8%  
118 1.0% 99.4%  
119 3% 98%  
120 5% 96%  
121 7% 91%  
122 12% 83%  
123 10% 71%  
124 14% 61%  
125 15% 47% Median
126 15% 32%  
127 5% 18%  
128 7% 12%  
129 3% 5%  
130 1.3% 3%  
131 0.8% 1.4%  
132 0.3% 0.6%  
133 0.1% 0.3%  
134 0.1% 0.2% Last Result
135 0% 0.1%  
136 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
112 0.1% 100%  
113 0.4% 99.9%  
114 0.8% 99.4%  
115 3% 98.6%  
116 3% 96%  
117 9% 93%  
118 9% 83%  
119 16% 74%  
120 11% 58%  
121 12% 46% Median
122 10% 34%  
123 13% 24%  
124 5% 11%  
125 3% 7% Last Result
126 2% 3%  
127 0.7% 1.3%  
128 0.2% 0.6%  
129 0.2% 0.3%  
130 0% 0.1%  
131 0% 0.1%  
132 0% 0.1%  
133 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 99.9%  
102 0.2% 99.9%  
103 0.2% 99.7%  
104 0.1% 99.5%  
105 0.2% 99.4%  
106 0.1% 99.3%  
107 0.1% 99.1%  
108 0.2% 99.0%  
109 0.5% 98.9%  
110 1.1% 98%  
111 4% 97%  
112 5% 93%  
113 8% 88%  
114 11% 81%  
115 12% 70%  
116 15% 58%  
117 13% 43% Median
118 10% 30%  
119 10% 20%  
120 6% 10%  
121 2% 4%  
122 1.3% 2% Last Result
123 0.5% 0.7%  
124 0.1% 0.2%  
125 0% 0.1%  
126 0% 0%  

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Miljöpartiet de gröna

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
103 0.1% 100%  
104 0.1% 99.9%  
105 0.4% 99.8%  
106 1.4% 99.4%  
107 2% 98%  
108 5% 96%  
109 8% 91%  
110 10% 82%  
111 11% 73%  
112 20% 62%  
113 16% 43% Median
114 7% 26%  
115 10% 20%  
116 5% 10%  
117 2% 5%  
118 1.2% 2%  
119 0.8% 1.2%  
120 0.2% 0.4%  
121 0.2% 0.2%  
122 0% 0.1%  
123 0% 0%  
124 0% 0%  
125 0% 0%  
126 0% 0%  
127 0% 0%  
128 0% 0%  
129 0% 0%  
130 0% 0%  
131 0% 0%  
132 0% 0%  
133 0% 0%  
134 0% 0%  
135 0% 0%  
136 0% 0%  
137 0% 0%  
138 0% 0% Last Result

Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
91 0% 100%  
92 0.3% 99.9%  
93 0.8% 99.6%  
94 2% 98.8%  
95 4% 97%  
96 9% 92%  
97 10% 84%  
98 12% 73%  
99 14% 61%  
100 17% 47% Median
101 11% 31%  
102 9% 19%  
103 5% 11%  
104 3% 6%  
105 1.3% 2%  
106 0.4% 0.8% Last Result
107 0.2% 0.4%  
108 0.1% 0.2%  
109 0.1% 0.1%  
110 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations