Opinion Poll by Ipsos for Dagens Nyheter, 16–24 August 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti 31.0% 26.3% 25.0–27.6% 24.7–28.0% 24.3–28.3% 23.7–29.0%
Sverigedemokraterna 12.9% 19.4% 18.3–20.6% 18.0–21.0% 17.7–21.3% 17.1–21.9%
Moderata samlingspartiet 23.3% 17.1% 16.0–18.3% 15.7–18.6% 15.5–18.9% 15.0–19.5%
Vänsterpartiet 5.7% 9.8% 9.0–10.8% 8.7–11.0% 8.5–11.2% 8.2–11.7%
Centerpartiet 6.1% 8.8% 8.0–9.7% 7.8–10.0% 7.6–10.2% 7.2–10.6%
Miljöpartiet de gröna 6.9% 6.0% 5.4–6.8% 5.2–7.0% 5.0–7.2% 4.7–7.6%
Liberalerna 5.4% 5.4% 4.8–6.1% 4.6–6.3% 4.5–6.5% 4.2–6.9%
Kristdemokraterna 4.6% 4.6% 4.0–5.3% 3.9–5.5% 3.7–5.6% 3.5–6.0%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti 113 94 89–99 88–101 87–102 85–106
Sverigedemokraterna 49 70 65–74 64–76 63–77 61–79
Moderata samlingspartiet 84 62 57–66 56–67 55–68 53–70
Vänsterpartiet 21 35 32–38 31–40 31–40 29–42
Centerpartiet 22 32 29–35 28–36 27–37 26–39
Miljöpartiet de gröna 25 22 19–24 19–25 18–26 17–27
Liberalerna 19 20 17–22 16–22 15–23 15–24
Kristdemokraterna 16 16 0–19 0–20 0–20 0–21

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
82 0% 100%  
83 0.1% 99.9%  
84 0.3% 99.8%  
85 0.5% 99.5%  
86 0.6% 99.0%  
87 1.0% 98%  
88 3% 97%  
89 6% 95%  
90 9% 89%  
91 7% 80%  
92 6% 73%  
93 5% 67%  
94 13% 61% Median
95 13% 48%  
96 9% 35%  
97 7% 25%  
98 4% 18%  
99 4% 14%  
100 4% 10%  
101 2% 6%  
102 1.3% 4%  
103 0.8% 2%  
104 0.5% 2%  
105 0.5% 1.1%  
106 0.3% 0.5%  
107 0.1% 0.2%  
108 0.1% 0.1%  
109 0% 0%  
110 0% 0%  
111 0% 0%  
112 0% 0%  
113 0% 0% Last Result

Sverigedemokraterna

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sverigedemokraterna page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0% 100% Last Result
50 0% 100%  
51 0% 100%  
52 0% 100%  
53 0% 100%  
54 0% 100%  
55 0% 100%  
56 0% 100%  
57 0% 100%  
58 0% 100%  
59 0.1% 100%  
60 0.1% 99.9%  
61 0.3% 99.8%  
62 0.8% 99.4%  
63 2% 98.6%  
64 3% 97%  
65 4% 94%  
66 9% 90%  
67 9% 81%  
68 13% 72%  
69 9% 59%  
70 14% 51% Median
71 10% 37%  
72 7% 26%  
73 7% 19%  
74 3% 12%  
75 3% 8%  
76 2% 5%  
77 2% 4%  
78 1.2% 2%  
79 0.5% 0.9%  
80 0.3% 0.5%  
81 0.1% 0.2%  
82 0.1% 0.1%  
83 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Moderata samlingspartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0% 100%  
52 0.1% 99.9%  
53 0.3% 99.8%  
54 0.8% 99.5%  
55 1.5% 98.7%  
56 4% 97%  
57 4% 94%  
58 5% 89%  
59 9% 84%  
60 14% 76%  
61 12% 62%  
62 11% 50% Median
63 13% 39%  
64 9% 27%  
65 5% 17%  
66 5% 12%  
67 3% 7%  
68 2% 5%  
69 1.0% 2%  
70 0.8% 1.3%  
71 0.3% 0.5%  
72 0.1% 0.2%  
73 0% 0.1%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0% Last Result

Vänsterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vänsterpartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0% 100% Last Result
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0% 100%  
28 0.1% 100%  
29 0.6% 99.8%  
30 1.5% 99.2%  
31 4% 98%  
32 8% 94%  
33 10% 86%  
34 15% 76%  
35 12% 61% Median
36 16% 49%  
37 11% 32%  
38 12% 22%  
39 4% 10%  
40 3% 5%  
41 1.3% 2%  
42 0.7% 1.1%  
43 0.2% 0.4%  
44 0.1% 0.1%  
45 0% 0%  

Centerpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Centerpartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0% 100% Last Result
23 0% 100%  
24 0.1% 100%  
25 0.2% 99.9%  
26 0.8% 99.7%  
27 3% 99.0%  
28 5% 96%  
29 9% 91%  
30 12% 82%  
31 17% 70%  
32 20% 53% Median
33 10% 34%  
34 10% 23%  
35 7% 14%  
36 4% 6%  
37 1.5% 3%  
38 0.5% 1.1%  
39 0.4% 0.6%  
40 0.1% 0.2%  
41 0% 0%  

Miljöpartiet de gröna

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljöpartiet de gröna page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0.2% 100%  
17 1.0% 99.8%  
18 3% 98.9%  
19 6% 95%  
20 14% 90%  
21 22% 75%  
22 21% 53% Median
23 15% 32%  
24 8% 17%  
25 5% 9% Last Result
26 2% 3%  
27 0.9% 1.3%  
28 0.3% 0.4%  
29 0.1% 0.1%  
30 0% 0%  

Liberalerna

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberalerna page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.2% 100%  
1 0% 99.8%  
2 0% 99.8%  
3 0% 99.8%  
4 0% 99.8%  
5 0% 99.8%  
6 0% 99.8%  
7 0% 99.8%  
8 0% 99.8%  
9 0% 99.8%  
10 0% 99.8%  
11 0% 99.8%  
12 0% 99.8%  
13 0% 99.8%  
14 0% 99.8%  
15 2% 99.8%  
16 5% 97%  
17 7% 93%  
18 16% 86%  
19 14% 70% Last Result
20 18% 56% Median
21 20% 38%  
22 14% 19%  
23 3% 4%  
24 0.9% 1.4%  
25 0.3% 0.5%  
26 0.1% 0.1%  
27 0% 0.1%  
28 0% 0%  

Kristdemokraterna

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristdemokraterna page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 10% 100%  
1 0% 90%  
2 0% 90%  
3 0% 90%  
4 0% 90%  
5 0% 90%  
6 0% 90%  
7 0% 90%  
8 0% 90%  
9 0% 90%  
10 0% 90%  
11 0% 90%  
12 0% 90%  
13 0% 90%  
14 2% 90%  
15 19% 87%  
16 21% 69% Last Result, Median
17 22% 48%  
18 12% 26%  
19 8% 15%  
20 5% 7%  
21 2% 2%  
22 0.3% 0.4%  
23 0.1% 0.1%  
24 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet 219 187 99.9% 182–194 180–198 179–201 176–202
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet 197 156 0% 150–162 149–165 147–167 145–171
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna 159 151 0% 145–157 144–159 143–161 141–165
Sverigedemokraterna – Moderata samlingspartiet – Kristdemokraterna 149 147 0% 140–152 137–154 134–155 130–158
Sverigedemokraterna – Moderata samlingspartiet 133 131 0% 126–137 124–139 123–141 121–145
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet 134 129 0% 124–135 123–137 121–139 119–142
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna – Kristdemokraterna 141 129 0% 121–133 118–136 115–137 112–140
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Miljöpartiet de gröna 138 116 0% 111–122 109–123 108–125 106–128
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna 125 113 0% 107–118 106–120 104–122 102–124
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna 122 109 0% 102–114 97–116 94–117 92–119
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet 106 93 0% 89–98 87–101 86–102 84–104

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
174 0.1% 100%  
175 0.2% 99.9% Majority
176 0.3% 99.7%  
177 0.4% 99.4%  
178 1.2% 99.0%  
179 1.3% 98%  
180 2% 96%  
181 2% 94%  
182 5% 92%  
183 7% 87%  
184 6% 79%  
185 9% 73%  
186 7% 64%  
187 13% 57%  
188 10% 44% Median
189 6% 35%  
190 3% 29%  
191 6% 26%  
192 5% 20%  
193 4% 15%  
194 1.3% 11%  
195 2% 9%  
196 2% 8%  
197 0.9% 6%  
198 0.6% 5%  
199 0.5% 4%  
200 1.2% 4%  
201 2% 3%  
202 0.6% 1.1%  
203 0.1% 0.5%  
204 0.1% 0.4%  
205 0.2% 0.3%  
206 0% 0.1%  
207 0% 0.1%  
208 0% 0.1%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0% Last Result

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
142 0.1% 100%  
143 0.1% 99.9%  
144 0.1% 99.8%  
145 0.5% 99.7%  
146 0.8% 99.2%  
147 1.0% 98%  
148 2% 97%  
149 2% 95%  
150 5% 93%  
151 5% 88%  
152 6% 83%  
153 7% 77%  
154 12% 70%  
155 7% 58%  
156 13% 52% Median
157 9% 39%  
158 5% 30%  
159 5% 25%  
160 5% 20%  
161 2% 15%  
162 3% 13%  
163 3% 10%  
164 2% 7%  
165 1.4% 5%  
166 1.1% 4%  
167 0.9% 3%  
168 0.4% 2%  
169 0.6% 1.3%  
170 0.1% 0.7%  
171 0.2% 0.6%  
172 0.2% 0.4%  
173 0.1% 0.1%  
174 0% 0.1%  
175 0% 0% Majority
176 0% 0%  
177 0% 0%  
178 0% 0%  
179 0% 0%  
180 0% 0%  
181 0% 0%  
182 0% 0%  
183 0% 0%  
184 0% 0%  
185 0% 0%  
186 0% 0%  
187 0% 0%  
188 0% 0%  
189 0% 0%  
190 0% 0%  
191 0% 0%  
192 0% 0%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0% Last Result

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
137 0% 100%  
138 0.1% 99.9%  
139 0.1% 99.9%  
140 0.2% 99.7%  
141 0.6% 99.5%  
142 0.8% 98.9%  
143 2% 98%  
144 2% 96%  
145 5% 95%  
146 3% 89%  
147 5% 86%  
148 9% 81%  
149 8% 72%  
150 8% 64%  
151 12% 56% Median
152 7% 44%  
153 6% 37%  
154 7% 31%  
155 6% 25%  
156 5% 19%  
157 4% 14%  
158 2% 9%  
159 3% 7% Last Result
160 1.3% 5%  
161 1.2% 4%  
162 0.7% 2%  
163 0.7% 2%  
164 0.2% 1.0%  
165 0.4% 0.7%  
166 0.1% 0.3%  
167 0.1% 0.2%  
168 0% 0.1%  
169 0% 0.1%  
170 0% 0%  

Sverigedemokraterna – Moderata samlingspartiet – Kristdemokraterna

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
127 0.1% 100%  
128 0.1% 99.9%  
129 0.1% 99.8%  
130 0.4% 99.7%  
131 0.4% 99.4%  
132 0.4% 99.0%  
133 0.6% 98.6%  
134 0.5% 98%  
135 1.1% 97%  
136 1.0% 96%  
137 1.2% 95%  
138 1.5% 94%  
139 2% 93%  
140 2% 91%  
141 5% 89%  
142 4% 84%  
143 5% 80%  
144 8% 75%  
145 6% 66%  
146 6% 60%  
147 9% 53%  
148 10% 44% Median
149 11% 35% Last Result
150 6% 24%  
151 4% 18%  
152 6% 14%  
153 2% 8%  
154 1.4% 6%  
155 2% 4%  
156 0.9% 2%  
157 0.4% 1.0%  
158 0.3% 0.7%  
159 0.2% 0.4%  
160 0.1% 0.1%  
161 0% 0.1%  
162 0% 0%  

Sverigedemokraterna – Moderata samlingspartiet

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
118 0% 100%  
119 0.2% 99.9%  
120 0.2% 99.8%  
121 0.6% 99.6%  
122 0.6% 99.0%  
123 2% 98%  
124 2% 97%  
125 4% 95%  
126 6% 91%  
127 6% 85%  
128 9% 79%  
129 8% 70%  
130 8% 62%  
131 8% 54%  
132 7% 46% Median
133 11% 39% Last Result
134 6% 28%  
135 6% 22%  
136 5% 16%  
137 2% 11%  
138 2% 9%  
139 3% 7%  
140 0.8% 4%  
141 1.3% 3%  
142 0.8% 2%  
143 0.3% 1.2%  
144 0.2% 0.9%  
145 0.4% 0.6%  
146 0.1% 0.2%  
147 0.1% 0.2%  
148 0% 0.1%  
149 0% 0%  

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
116 0% 100%  
117 0.1% 99.9%  
118 0.2% 99.8%  
119 0.3% 99.6%  
120 0.6% 99.3%  
121 1.2% 98.7%  
122 2% 97%  
123 4% 96%  
124 4% 92%  
125 7% 88%  
126 6% 81%  
127 6% 75%  
128 12% 69%  
129 8% 56% Median
130 9% 48%  
131 6% 39%  
132 6% 33%  
133 8% 27%  
134 5% 19% Last Result
135 4% 14%  
136 3% 10%  
137 2% 7%  
138 2% 5%  
139 1.0% 3%  
140 0.7% 2%  
141 0.5% 1.3%  
142 0.3% 0.8%  
143 0.2% 0.4%  
144 0.1% 0.2%  
145 0.1% 0.1%  
146 0% 0.1%  
147 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna – Kristdemokraterna

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
108 0.1% 100%  
109 0% 99.9%  
110 0.1% 99.9%  
111 0.1% 99.8%  
112 0.4% 99.7%  
113 0.7% 99.2%  
114 0.9% 98.5%  
115 0.8% 98%  
116 0.8% 97%  
117 0.8% 96%  
118 2% 95%  
119 2% 94%  
120 2% 92%  
121 2% 90%  
122 2% 89%  
123 4% 87%  
124 3% 83%  
125 3% 80%  
126 5% 78%  
127 9% 73%  
128 13% 63%  
129 6% 50%  
130 8% 44% Median
131 13% 36%  
132 10% 24%  
133 4% 13%  
134 3% 10%  
135 1.4% 7%  
136 3% 6%  
137 1.2% 3%  
138 0.6% 1.5%  
139 0.3% 0.9%  
140 0.5% 0.6%  
141 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
142 0% 0%  

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Miljöpartiet de gröna

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
103 0% 100%  
104 0.1% 99.9%  
105 0.2% 99.8%  
106 0.4% 99.6%  
107 1.0% 99.2%  
108 1.2% 98%  
109 2% 97%  
110 3% 95%  
111 5% 92%  
112 6% 87%  
113 8% 81%  
114 11% 73%  
115 8% 62%  
116 10% 54% Median
117 11% 44%  
118 6% 33%  
119 7% 26%  
120 5% 19%  
121 4% 14%  
122 3% 10%  
123 3% 7%  
124 1.5% 4%  
125 1.0% 3%  
126 0.6% 2%  
127 0.5% 1.3%  
128 0.3% 0.8%  
129 0.2% 0.4%  
130 0.2% 0.3%  
131 0% 0.1%  
132 0% 0.1%  
133 0% 0.1%  
134 0% 0%  
135 0% 0%  
136 0% 0%  
137 0% 0%  
138 0% 0% Last Result

Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 99.9%  
100 0.1% 99.9%  
101 0.2% 99.8%  
102 0.4% 99.6%  
103 0.9% 99.2%  
104 1.1% 98%  
105 2% 97%  
106 2% 95%  
107 4% 93%  
108 5% 90%  
109 7% 85%  
110 7% 78%  
111 8% 71%  
112 6% 63%  
113 10% 57%  
114 10% 47% Median
115 10% 38%  
116 8% 27%  
117 6% 19%  
118 3% 13%  
119 3% 10%  
120 2% 7%  
121 2% 5%  
122 1.0% 3%  
123 1.3% 2%  
124 0.4% 0.6%  
125 0.1% 0.3% Last Result
126 0.1% 0.2%  
127 0% 0.1%  
128 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
88 0% 100%  
89 0.1% 99.9%  
90 0.1% 99.9%  
91 0.2% 99.8%  
92 0.6% 99.6%  
93 1.0% 98.9%  
94 0.9% 98%  
95 0.4% 97%  
96 0.7% 97%  
97 1.0% 96%  
98 0.6% 95%  
99 1.0% 94%  
100 1.4% 93%  
101 1.0% 92%  
102 4% 91%  
103 2% 87%  
104 2% 85%  
105 4% 83%  
106 2% 79%  
107 6% 76%  
108 9% 70%  
109 14% 62%  
110 16% 47% Median
111 7% 31%  
112 8% 24%  
113 4% 15%  
114 3% 12%  
115 3% 8%  
116 2% 5%  
117 2% 4%  
118 0.8% 2%  
119 0.7% 1.1%  
120 0.4% 0.5%  
121 0% 0.1%  
122 0% 0.1% Last Result
123 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
81 0% 100%  
82 0.2% 99.9%  
83 0.2% 99.7%  
84 0.5% 99.6%  
85 1.1% 99.0%  
86 2% 98%  
87 3% 96%  
88 2% 93%  
89 5% 90%  
90 6% 85%  
91 9% 79%  
92 11% 71%  
93 17% 60%  
94 9% 43% Median
95 8% 35%  
96 6% 26%  
97 8% 20%  
98 3% 13%  
99 3% 10%  
100 2% 7%  
101 1.3% 5%  
102 2% 4%  
103 0.8% 1.4%  
104 0.3% 0.6%  
105 0.2% 0.3%  
106 0% 0.2% Last Result
107 0.1% 0.1%  
108 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations