Opinion Poll by Sifo for Svenska Dagbladet, 21–26 August 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti 31.0% 26.2% 25.1–27.3% 24.8–27.6% 24.6–27.9% 24.1–28.4%
Sverigedemokraterna 12.9% 18.5% 17.6–19.5% 17.3–19.8% 17.1–20.0% 16.6–20.5%
Moderata samlingspartiet 23.3% 17.9% 17.0–18.9% 16.7–19.2% 16.5–19.4% 16.0–19.9%
Centerpartiet 6.1% 9.3% 8.6–10.1% 8.4–10.3% 8.3–10.5% 7.9–10.8%
Vänsterpartiet 5.7% 9.1% 8.4–9.9% 8.2–10.1% 8.1–10.3% 7.8–10.6%
Miljöpartiet de gröna 6.9% 5.8% 5.3–6.4% 5.1–6.6% 5.0–6.8% 4.7–7.1%
Liberalerna 5.4% 5.8% 5.3–6.4% 5.1–6.6% 5.0–6.8% 4.7–7.1%
Kristdemokraterna 4.6% 5.5% 5.0–6.1% 4.8–6.3% 4.7–6.4% 4.4–6.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti 113 91 88–97 87–99 87–100 86–102
Sverigedemokraterna 49 66 63–70 62–70 61–71 59–73
Moderata samlingspartiet 84 64 60–67 59–68 59–69 57–71
Centerpartiet 22 33 31–36 30–37 29–37 28–39
Vänsterpartiet 21 32 30–35 30–36 29–37 28–38
Miljöpartiet de gröna 25 21 19–23 18–24 18–24 17–25
Liberalerna 19 21 19–23 18–24 18–24 17–25
Kristdemokraterna 16 20 18–22 17–23 17–23 16–24

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
85 0.3% 100%  
86 0.9% 99.7%  
87 4% 98.8%  
88 9% 95%  
89 11% 86%  
90 11% 75%  
91 18% 64% Median
92 18% 46%  
93 7% 27%  
94 3% 20%  
95 2% 17%  
96 3% 15%  
97 3% 12%  
98 3% 9%  
99 2% 6%  
100 2% 4%  
101 1.0% 2%  
102 0.6% 0.7%  
103 0.1% 0.1%  
104 0% 0%  
105 0% 0%  
106 0% 0%  
107 0% 0%  
108 0% 0%  
109 0% 0%  
110 0% 0%  
111 0% 0%  
112 0% 0%  
113 0% 0% Last Result

Sverigedemokraterna

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sverigedemokraterna page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0% 100% Last Result
50 0% 100%  
51 0% 100%  
52 0% 100%  
53 0% 100%  
54 0% 100%  
55 0% 100%  
56 0% 100%  
57 0.1% 100%  
58 0.1% 99.9%  
59 0.4% 99.8%  
60 1.2% 99.4%  
61 3% 98%  
62 5% 95%  
63 8% 90%  
64 11% 83%  
65 14% 72%  
66 18% 58% Median
67 11% 40%  
68 11% 29%  
69 7% 17%  
70 6% 10%  
71 3% 5%  
72 1.1% 2%  
73 0.4% 0.8%  
74 0.2% 0.3%  
75 0.1% 0.1%  
76 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Moderata samlingspartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 0% 100%  
56 0.1% 99.9%  
57 0.4% 99.8%  
58 1.3% 99.4%  
59 3% 98%  
60 6% 95%  
61 7% 89%  
62 9% 82%  
63 15% 72%  
64 17% 58% Median
65 14% 40%  
66 11% 26%  
67 7% 15%  
68 4% 8%  
69 2% 4%  
70 1.0% 2%  
71 0.6% 0.9%  
72 0.2% 0.3%  
73 0.1% 0.1%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0% Last Result

Centerpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Centerpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0% 100% Last Result
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0.1% 100%  
28 0.5% 99.9%  
29 2% 99.4%  
30 5% 97%  
31 8% 92%  
32 18% 84%  
33 17% 65% Median
34 15% 48%  
35 22% 33%  
36 5% 11%  
37 4% 6%  
38 2% 2%  
39 0.4% 0.5%  
40 0.1% 0.2%  
41 0% 0%  

Vänsterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vänsterpartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0% 100% Last Result
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0.1% 100%  
27 0.4% 99.9%  
28 1.3% 99.6%  
29 3% 98%  
30 9% 95%  
31 12% 86%  
32 25% 74% Median
33 19% 49%  
34 14% 30%  
35 9% 16%  
36 4% 7%  
37 3% 4%  
38 0.5% 0.8%  
39 0.2% 0.3%  
40 0% 0.1%  
41 0% 0%  

Miljöpartiet de gröna

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljöpartiet de gröna page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0.2% 100%  
17 2% 99.8%  
18 5% 98%  
19 17% 93%  
20 20% 76%  
21 27% 56% Median
22 16% 29%  
23 8% 13%  
24 4% 5%  
25 1.0% 1.2% Last Result
26 0.1% 0.2%  
27 0% 0%  

Liberalerna

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberalerna page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0.2% 100%  
17 1.4% 99.8%  
18 5% 98%  
19 15% 93% Last Result
20 23% 78%  
21 23% 55% Median
22 20% 31%  
23 6% 12%  
24 4% 5%  
25 0.9% 1.2%  
26 0.3% 0.3%  
27 0% 0%  

Kristdemokraterna

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristdemokraterna page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.2% 100%  
16 2% 99.8% Last Result
17 3% 98%  
18 18% 95%  
19 16% 77%  
20 30% 61% Median
21 10% 30%  
22 15% 21%  
23 4% 5%  
24 0.7% 1.0%  
25 0.3% 0.3%  
26 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet 219 189 100% 185–193 184–195 182–196 180–199
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet 197 156 0% 152–160 150–162 149–163 147–166
Sverigedemokraterna – Moderata samlingspartiet – Kristdemokraterna 149 150 0% 144–154 143–155 142–156 140–158
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna 159 145 0% 141–150 140–152 139–153 137–156
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna – Kristdemokraterna 141 138 0% 133–142 132–143 131–144 128–146
Sverigedemokraterna – Moderata samlingspartiet 133 130 0% 126–134 124–135 123–136 121–138
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet 134 124 0% 120–129 119–131 119–132 117–135
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna 125 118 0% 114–122 112–123 112–125 110–126
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna 122 117 0% 113–121 111–122 110–123 108–125
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Miljöpartiet de gröna 138 112 0% 109–118 108–120 107–121 106–123
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet 106 98 0% 93–100 92–102 91–104 89–105

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
178 0.1% 100%  
179 0.1% 99.9%  
180 0.5% 99.8%  
181 0.6% 99.3%  
182 1.4% 98.7%  
183 2% 97%  
184 4% 95%  
185 5% 91%  
186 8% 86%  
187 11% 78%  
188 10% 67% Median
189 11% 57%  
190 11% 47%  
191 17% 35%  
192 5% 19%  
193 5% 14%  
194 3% 9%  
195 2% 6%  
196 2% 4%  
197 1.1% 2%  
198 0.5% 1.1%  
199 0.4% 0.6%  
200 0.1% 0.2%  
201 0% 0.1%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0% Last Result

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
145 0% 100%  
146 0.1% 99.9%  
147 0.3% 99.8%  
148 0.9% 99.5%  
149 1.3% 98.6%  
150 3% 97%  
151 3% 94%  
152 10% 91%  
153 8% 81%  
154 12% 73%  
155 8% 61% Median
156 17% 53%  
157 10% 36%  
158 7% 26%  
159 5% 19%  
160 5% 14%  
161 4% 9%  
162 2% 5%  
163 1.3% 4%  
164 1.1% 2%  
165 0.7% 1.2%  
166 0.2% 0.5%  
167 0.2% 0.3%  
168 0.1% 0.1%  
169 0% 0%  
170 0% 0%  
171 0% 0%  
172 0% 0%  
173 0% 0%  
174 0% 0%  
175 0% 0% Majority
176 0% 0%  
177 0% 0%  
178 0% 0%  
179 0% 0%  
180 0% 0%  
181 0% 0%  
182 0% 0%  
183 0% 0%  
184 0% 0%  
185 0% 0%  
186 0% 0%  
187 0% 0%  
188 0% 0%  
189 0% 0%  
190 0% 0%  
191 0% 0%  
192 0% 0%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0% Last Result

Sverigedemokraterna – Moderata samlingspartiet – Kristdemokraterna

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
137 0% 100%  
138 0.1% 99.9%  
139 0.2% 99.8%  
140 0.2% 99.6%  
141 0.5% 99.3%  
142 2% 98.9%  
143 3% 97%  
144 5% 95%  
145 2% 89%  
146 2% 87%  
147 4% 85%  
148 19% 81%  
149 11% 62% Last Result
150 10% 50% Median
151 7% 40%  
152 7% 33%  
153 8% 27%  
154 10% 19%  
155 5% 9%  
156 3% 4%  
157 0.4% 1.1%  
158 0.3% 0.6%  
159 0.2% 0.3%  
160 0.1% 0.2%  
161 0% 0%  

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
135 0% 100%  
136 0.2% 99.9%  
137 0.3% 99.7%  
138 0.8% 99.4%  
139 2% 98.6%  
140 5% 97%  
141 6% 92%  
142 11% 87%  
143 12% 75%  
144 10% 64% Median
145 17% 54%  
146 8% 37%  
147 5% 29%  
148 6% 24%  
149 4% 18%  
150 4% 13%  
151 3% 9%  
152 2% 6%  
153 1.3% 4%  
154 1.2% 2%  
155 0.6% 1.1%  
156 0.3% 0.5%  
157 0.1% 0.2%  
158 0% 0.1%  
159 0% 0% Last Result

Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna – Kristdemokraterna

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
126 0% 100%  
127 0.1% 99.9%  
128 0.4% 99.8%  
129 0.5% 99.4%  
130 0.9% 98.9%  
131 2% 98%  
132 3% 96%  
133 4% 93%  
134 7% 89%  
135 5% 83%  
136 8% 78%  
137 11% 70%  
138 14% 59% Median
139 11% 44%  
140 12% 33%  
141 8% 21% Last Result
142 4% 12%  
143 4% 8%  
144 2% 5%  
145 1.3% 2%  
146 0.6% 1.0%  
147 0.2% 0.4%  
148 0.1% 0.2%  
149 0% 0%  

Sverigedemokraterna – Moderata samlingspartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
118 0% 100%  
119 0.1% 99.9%  
120 0.2% 99.8%  
121 0.3% 99.6%  
122 0.6% 99.3%  
123 1.4% 98.7%  
124 4% 97%  
125 4% 94%  
126 5% 90%  
127 9% 85%  
128 13% 77%  
129 11% 64%  
130 13% 53% Median
131 8% 40%  
132 6% 32%  
133 9% 26% Last Result
134 7% 17%  
135 6% 10%  
136 3% 4%  
137 0.7% 1.5%  
138 0.3% 0.7%  
139 0.2% 0.4%  
140 0.2% 0.2%  
141 0% 0.1%  
142 0% 0%  

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
115 0.1% 100%  
116 0.2% 99.9%  
117 0.9% 99.7%  
118 1.0% 98.8%  
119 3% 98%  
120 6% 95%  
121 8% 89%  
122 14% 81%  
123 10% 68% Median
124 15% 58%  
125 12% 43%  
126 8% 31%  
127 7% 24%  
128 4% 17%  
129 4% 13%  
130 3% 9%  
131 2% 6%  
132 1.5% 4%  
133 1.2% 2%  
134 0.7% 1.3% Last Result
135 0.4% 0.6%  
136 0.1% 0.2%  
137 0.1% 0.1%  
138 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
107 0% 100%  
108 0.1% 99.9%  
109 0.2% 99.8%  
110 0.8% 99.6%  
111 1.2% 98.7%  
112 3% 98%  
113 4% 95%  
114 4% 90%  
115 6% 86%  
116 10% 80%  
117 10% 69%  
118 13% 60% Median
119 14% 47%  
120 13% 33%  
121 8% 20%  
122 5% 12%  
123 4% 8%  
124 1.4% 4%  
125 1.3% 3% Last Result
126 0.8% 1.3%  
127 0.2% 0.4%  
128 0.1% 0.2%  
129 0.1% 0.1%  
130 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
106 0.1% 100%  
107 0.3% 99.9%  
108 0.6% 99.6%  
109 1.2% 99.0%  
110 1.4% 98%  
111 3% 96%  
112 2% 94%  
113 6% 92%  
114 7% 86%  
115 7% 79%  
116 8% 72%  
117 15% 64% Median
118 13% 49%  
119 13% 36%  
120 9% 23%  
121 7% 15%  
122 3% 8% Last Result
123 2% 4%  
124 1.2% 2%  
125 0.7% 1.0%  
126 0.2% 0.4%  
127 0.1% 0.1%  
128 0% 0%  

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Miljöpartiet de gröna

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
104 0% 100%  
105 0.2% 99.9%  
106 1.1% 99.7%  
107 1.5% 98.6%  
108 5% 97%  
109 9% 92%  
110 12% 83%  
111 17% 70%  
112 13% 53% Median
113 14% 40%  
114 5% 26%  
115 3% 21%  
116 3% 18%  
117 2% 15%  
118 3% 13%  
119 3% 9%  
120 3% 6%  
121 2% 4%  
122 0.7% 2%  
123 0.6% 0.9%  
124 0.2% 0.2%  
125 0% 0.1%  
126 0% 0%  
127 0% 0%  
128 0% 0%  
129 0% 0%  
130 0% 0%  
131 0% 0%  
132 0% 0%  
133 0% 0%  
134 0% 0%  
135 0% 0%  
136 0% 0%  
137 0% 0%  
138 0% 0% Last Result

Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
87 0% 100%  
88 0.2% 99.9%  
89 0.4% 99.8%  
90 1.2% 99.4%  
91 3% 98%  
92 3% 95%  
93 5% 93%  
94 8% 88%  
95 7% 80%  
96 8% 72%  
97 9% 65% Median
98 16% 56%  
99 20% 39%  
100 10% 19%  
101 3% 9%  
102 2% 6%  
103 2% 5%  
104 2% 3%  
105 0.8% 1.2%  
106 0.3% 0.4% Last Result
107 0.1% 0.1%  
108 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations