Opinion Poll by SKOP, 24–30 August 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti 31.0% 24.7% 23.5–26.0% 23.1–26.4% 22.8–26.7% 22.2–27.3%
Sverigedemokraterna 12.9% 19.5% 18.4–20.7% 18.0–21.0% 17.8–21.3% 17.3–21.9%
Moderata samlingspartiet 23.3% 16.9% 15.8–18.0% 15.5–18.4% 15.3–18.6% 14.8–19.2%
Vänsterpartiet 5.7% 10.3% 9.4–11.2% 9.2–11.5% 9.0–11.7% 8.6–12.2%
Centerpartiet 6.1% 8.2% 7.5–9.1% 7.2–9.3% 7.1–9.5% 6.7–10.0%
Kristdemokraterna 4.6% 6.1% 5.4–6.8% 5.2–7.1% 5.1–7.2% 4.8–7.6%
Miljöpartiet de gröna 6.9% 6.0% 5.3–6.7% 5.2–7.0% 5.0–7.1% 4.7–7.5%
Liberalerna 5.4% 5.8% 5.1–6.5% 5.0–6.7% 4.8–6.9% 4.5–7.3%
Feministiskt initiativ 3.1% 1.0% 0.7–1.4% 0.7–1.4% 0.6–1.5% 0.5–1.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti 113 89 84–93 83–94 82–95 80–97
Sverigedemokraterna 49 70 65–73 64–75 64–77 62–78
Moderata samlingspartiet 84 60 57–64 56–65 55–66 53–68
Vänsterpartiet 21 37 34–40 33–41 32–42 31–43
Centerpartiet 22 29 27–32 26–33 25–34 24–36
Kristdemokraterna 16 22 20–24 19–25 18–26 17–27
Miljöpartiet de gröna 25 21 19–24 18–25 18–26 17–27
Liberalerna 19 21 18–23 18–24 17–24 17–26
Feministiskt initiativ 0 0 0 0 0 0

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
77 0.1% 100%  
78 0.1% 99.9%  
79 0.2% 99.8%  
80 0.6% 99.6%  
81 1.2% 99.0%  
82 2% 98%  
83 3% 96%  
84 3% 93%  
85 13% 89%  
86 5% 77%  
87 7% 71%  
88 12% 65%  
89 20% 52% Median
90 5% 32%  
91 12% 27%  
92 3% 15%  
93 2% 11%  
94 6% 9%  
95 1.3% 3%  
96 1.0% 2%  
97 0.4% 0.8%  
98 0.1% 0.3%  
99 0.1% 0.2%  
100 0% 0.1%  
101 0% 0%  
102 0% 0%  
103 0% 0%  
104 0% 0%  
105 0% 0%  
106 0% 0%  
107 0% 0%  
108 0% 0%  
109 0% 0%  
110 0% 0%  
111 0% 0%  
112 0% 0%  
113 0% 0% Last Result

Sverigedemokraterna

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sverigedemokraterna page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0% 100% Last Result
50 0% 100%  
51 0% 100%  
52 0% 100%  
53 0% 100%  
54 0% 100%  
55 0% 100%  
56 0% 100%  
57 0% 100%  
58 0% 100%  
59 0% 100%  
60 0.1% 99.9%  
61 0.1% 99.9%  
62 0.5% 99.7%  
63 1.4% 99.2%  
64 7% 98%  
65 3% 91%  
66 2% 88%  
67 5% 86%  
68 6% 81%  
69 14% 74%  
70 13% 61% Median
71 17% 48%  
72 18% 31%  
73 4% 13%  
74 2% 9%  
75 2% 7%  
76 2% 4%  
77 2% 3%  
78 0.9% 1.2%  
79 0.2% 0.3%  
80 0.1% 0.1%  
81 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Moderata samlingspartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0.2% 100%  
52 0.1% 99.8%  
53 0.4% 99.7%  
54 1.0% 99.3%  
55 2% 98%  
56 5% 96%  
57 10% 91%  
58 7% 82%  
59 7% 75%  
60 20% 68% Median
61 11% 48%  
62 4% 38%  
63 23% 34%  
64 5% 11%  
65 2% 6%  
66 3% 5%  
67 1.0% 2%  
68 0.3% 0.8%  
69 0.2% 0.5%  
70 0.3% 0.3%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0% Last Result

Vänsterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vänsterpartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0% 100% Last Result
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0% 100%  
28 0% 100%  
29 0.1% 100%  
30 0.2% 99.9%  
31 0.4% 99.7%  
32 2% 99.3%  
33 2% 97%  
34 14% 95%  
35 12% 81%  
36 15% 69%  
37 13% 54% Median
38 14% 41%  
39 15% 27%  
40 5% 11%  
41 4% 7%  
42 1.3% 3%  
43 1.3% 2%  
44 0.2% 0.3%  
45 0.1% 0.1%  
46 0% 0%  

Centerpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Centerpartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0% 100% Last Result
23 0.2% 100%  
24 0.6% 99.8%  
25 2% 99.2%  
26 7% 97%  
27 7% 90%  
28 16% 83%  
29 23% 67% Median
30 16% 44%  
31 14% 28%  
32 7% 14%  
33 3% 7%  
34 2% 4%  
35 1.1% 2%  
36 0.4% 0.5%  
37 0.1% 0.1%  
38 0% 0%  

Kristdemokraterna

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristdemokraterna page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0.1% 100% Last Result
17 0.6% 99.9%  
18 2% 99.3%  
19 7% 97%  
20 20% 90%  
21 16% 71%  
22 25% 54% Median
23 13% 30%  
24 9% 17%  
25 5% 8%  
26 1.1% 3%  
27 1.0% 1.4%  
28 0.3% 0.4%  
29 0.1% 0.1%  
30 0% 0%  

Miljöpartiet de gröna

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljöpartiet de gröna page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0.2% 100%  
17 0.6% 99.8%  
18 5% 99.2%  
19 6% 94%  
20 12% 88%  
21 36% 76% Median
22 12% 40%  
23 14% 28%  
24 7% 14%  
25 5% 8% Last Result
26 2% 3%  
27 0.4% 0.6%  
28 0.1% 0.1%  
29 0% 0%  

Liberalerna

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberalerna page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.1% 100%  
16 0.4% 99.9%  
17 3% 99.5%  
18 8% 97%  
19 10% 89% Last Result
20 26% 79%  
21 24% 53% Median
22 15% 28%  
23 5% 14%  
24 7% 9%  
25 1.3% 2%  
26 0.4% 0.7%  
27 0.2% 0.2%  
28 0% 0%  

Feministiskt initiativ

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Feministiskt initiativ page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet 219 178 86% 174–184 172–186 170–186 168–188
Sverigedemokraterna – Moderata samlingspartiet – Kristdemokraterna 149 152 0% 148–157 146–158 145–160 142–163
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet 197 149 0% 145–154 142–154 141–156 138–158
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna – Feministiskt initiativ 159 147 0% 142–151 140–153 139–154 137–157
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna 159 147 0% 142–151 140–153 139–154 137–157
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna – Liberalerna 141 133 0% 128–137 126–139 125–141 122–143
Sverigedemokraterna – Moderata samlingspartiet 133 130 0% 125–135 124–136 123–138 120–140
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet 134 125 0% 120–130 119–131 118–132 115–135
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna 122 112 0% 107–117 106–118 105–119 102–122
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna 125 110 0% 106–115 104–117 104–119 101–120
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Miljöpartiet de gröna 138 110 0% 106–115 104–115 103–117 101–119
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet 106 90 0% 86–95 84–96 83–97 81–99

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
165 0.1% 100%  
166 0.1% 99.9%  
167 0.2% 99.8%  
168 0.4% 99.7%  
169 0.6% 99.3%  
170 1.3% 98.7%  
171 1.2% 97%  
172 3% 96%  
173 3% 93%  
174 4% 90%  
175 6% 86% Majority
176 17% 80%  
177 5% 64%  
178 16% 59% Median
179 5% 43%  
180 7% 38%  
181 13% 30%  
182 3% 17%  
183 3% 14%  
184 5% 11%  
185 0.6% 6%  
186 3% 5%  
187 0.7% 2%  
188 0.6% 0.9%  
189 0.1% 0.3%  
190 0.1% 0.2%  
191 0% 0.1%  
192 0% 0%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0% Last Result

Sverigedemokraterna – Moderata samlingspartiet – Kristdemokraterna

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
139 0% 100%  
140 0.1% 99.9%  
141 0.2% 99.8%  
142 0.5% 99.7%  
143 0.8% 99.2%  
144 0.7% 98%  
145 2% 98%  
146 4% 96%  
147 1.4% 92%  
148 8% 91%  
149 11% 83% Last Result
150 3% 72%  
151 15% 68%  
152 6% 53% Median
153 8% 48%  
154 15% 40%  
155 3% 25%  
156 3% 21%  
157 11% 18%  
158 2% 7%  
159 1.5% 4%  
160 2% 3%  
161 0.6% 1.5%  
162 0.3% 0.9%  
163 0.3% 0.6%  
164 0.2% 0.3%  
165 0.1% 0.1%  
166 0% 0%  

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
136 0.1% 100%  
137 0.1% 99.9%  
138 0.3% 99.8%  
139 0.5% 99.5%  
140 0.8% 99.0%  
141 1.4% 98%  
142 2% 97%  
143 2% 95%  
144 2% 93%  
145 8% 90%  
146 7% 82%  
147 6% 75%  
148 15% 69%  
149 12% 54% Median
150 7% 42%  
151 6% 35%  
152 14% 29%  
153 2% 15%  
154 8% 13%  
155 2% 5%  
156 0.7% 3%  
157 1.1% 2%  
158 0.4% 0.9%  
159 0.2% 0.4%  
160 0.1% 0.3%  
161 0% 0.1%  
162 0% 0.1%  
163 0% 0%  
164 0% 0%  
165 0% 0%  
166 0% 0%  
167 0% 0%  
168 0% 0%  
169 0% 0%  
170 0% 0%  
171 0% 0%  
172 0% 0%  
173 0% 0%  
174 0% 0%  
175 0% 0% Majority
176 0% 0%  
177 0% 0%  
178 0% 0%  
179 0% 0%  
180 0% 0%  
181 0% 0%  
182 0% 0%  
183 0% 0%  
184 0% 0%  
185 0% 0%  
186 0% 0%  
187 0% 0%  
188 0% 0%  
189 0% 0%  
190 0% 0%  
191 0% 0%  
192 0% 0%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0% Last Result

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna – Feministiskt initiativ

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
133 0% 100%  
134 0.1% 99.9%  
135 0.1% 99.9%  
136 0.1% 99.8%  
137 0.6% 99.7%  
138 0.9% 99.1%  
139 2% 98%  
140 3% 97%  
141 2% 94%  
142 3% 92%  
143 4% 89%  
144 17% 85%  
145 10% 68%  
146 5% 58%  
147 5% 53% Median
148 16% 48%  
149 11% 33%  
150 6% 22%  
151 6% 16%  
152 4% 10%  
153 2% 6%  
154 2% 4%  
155 0.6% 2%  
156 0.6% 1.3%  
157 0.4% 0.7%  
158 0.2% 0.3%  
159 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
160 0% 0.1%  
161 0% 0%  

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
133 0% 100%  
134 0.1% 99.9%  
135 0.1% 99.9%  
136 0.1% 99.8%  
137 0.6% 99.7%  
138 0.9% 99.1%  
139 2% 98%  
140 3% 97%  
141 2% 94%  
142 3% 92%  
143 4% 89%  
144 17% 85%  
145 10% 68%  
146 5% 58%  
147 5% 53% Median
148 16% 48%  
149 11% 33%  
150 6% 22%  
151 6% 16%  
152 4% 10%  
153 2% 6%  
154 2% 4%  
155 0.6% 2%  
156 0.6% 1.3%  
157 0.4% 0.7%  
158 0.2% 0.3%  
159 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
160 0% 0.1%  
161 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna – Liberalerna

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
119 0.1% 100%  
120 0% 99.9%  
121 0.1% 99.9%  
122 0.3% 99.8%  
123 0.6% 99.5%  
124 0.7% 98.9%  
125 0.9% 98%  
126 4% 97%  
127 2% 94%  
128 6% 91%  
129 14% 85%  
130 7% 71%  
131 5% 64%  
132 8% 59% Median
133 14% 51%  
134 6% 37%  
135 14% 31%  
136 3% 17%  
137 6% 14%  
138 2% 8%  
139 2% 6%  
140 0.9% 4%  
141 2% 3% Last Result
142 0.6% 1.2%  
143 0.2% 0.6%  
144 0.3% 0.4%  
145 0% 0.1%  
146 0% 0.1%  
147 0% 0%  

Sverigedemokraterna – Moderata samlingspartiet

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
118 0.1% 100%  
119 0.2% 99.9%  
120 0.3% 99.7%  
121 0.8% 99.4%  
122 0.6% 98.7%  
123 2% 98%  
124 3% 96%  
125 4% 93%  
126 4% 89%  
127 5% 84%  
128 5% 79%  
129 12% 74%  
130 12% 62% Median
131 13% 50%  
132 4% 37%  
133 12% 33% Last Result
134 5% 21%  
135 10% 17%  
136 2% 7%  
137 2% 5%  
138 1.4% 3%  
139 0.7% 2%  
140 0.5% 0.9%  
141 0.2% 0.4%  
142 0.1% 0.2%  
143 0% 0%  

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
113 0.1% 100%  
114 0.1% 99.9%  
115 0.4% 99.8%  
116 0.5% 99.4%  
117 0.6% 98.9%  
118 2% 98%  
119 1.3% 96%  
120 5% 95%  
121 3% 89%  
122 5% 87%  
123 20% 82%  
124 3% 62%  
125 11% 59%  
126 8% 48% Median
127 10% 39%  
128 13% 30%  
129 6% 17%  
130 3% 11%  
131 4% 8%  
132 2% 4%  
133 0.6% 2%  
134 0.7% 1.3% Last Result
135 0.3% 0.7%  
136 0.3% 0.3%  
137 0% 0.1%  
138 0% 0.1%  
139 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
100 0.1% 100%  
101 0.2% 99.9%  
102 0.4% 99.7%  
103 0.4% 99.3%  
104 0.9% 98.9%  
105 2% 98%  
106 2% 96%  
107 4% 93%  
108 8% 90%  
109 16% 82%  
110 4% 66%  
111 11% 62% Median
112 7% 51%  
113 19% 43%  
114 5% 24%  
115 4% 20%  
116 6% 16%  
117 4% 10%  
118 3% 6%  
119 0.7% 3%  
120 0.5% 2%  
121 0.7% 1.3%  
122 0.4% 0.6% Last Result
123 0.1% 0.2%  
124 0.1% 0.1%  
125 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
98 0.1% 100%  
99 0.1% 99.9%  
100 0.1% 99.9%  
101 0.3% 99.8%  
102 0.3% 99.4%  
103 1.4% 99.1%  
104 3% 98%  
105 4% 95%  
106 2% 91%  
107 7% 89%  
108 8% 82%  
109 17% 75%  
110 8% 57% Median
111 14% 49%  
112 5% 35%  
113 5% 30%  
114 10% 25%  
115 6% 15%  
116 3% 9%  
117 2% 6%  
118 0.9% 3%  
119 2% 3%  
120 0.3% 0.8%  
121 0.3% 0.5%  
122 0.1% 0.2%  
123 0.1% 0.1%  
124 0% 0%  
125 0% 0% Last Result

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Miljöpartiet de gröna

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
98 0% 100%  
99 0.1% 99.9%  
100 0.3% 99.8%  
101 0.5% 99.6%  
102 1.1% 99.0%  
103 1.3% 98%  
104 2% 97%  
105 4% 94%  
106 12% 91%  
107 4% 79%  
108 6% 74%  
109 8% 68%  
110 21% 60% Median
111 10% 39%  
112 6% 29%  
113 7% 23%  
114 4% 16%  
115 7% 12%  
116 1.2% 5%  
117 1.4% 4%  
118 2% 2%  
119 0.3% 0.6%  
120 0.2% 0.3%  
121 0.1% 0.2%  
122 0.1% 0.1%  
123 0% 0%  
124 0% 0%  
125 0% 0%  
126 0% 0%  
127 0% 0%  
128 0% 0%  
129 0% 0%  
130 0% 0%  
131 0% 0%  
132 0% 0%  
133 0% 0%  
134 0% 0%  
135 0% 0%  
136 0% 0%  
137 0% 0%  
138 0% 0% Last Result

Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
79 0.1% 100%  
80 0.1% 99.9%  
81 0.4% 99.8%  
82 0.7% 99.4%  
83 2% 98.6%  
84 3% 97%  
85 3% 94%  
86 5% 92%  
87 8% 86%  
88 10% 78%  
89 17% 68% Median
90 9% 51%  
91 14% 42%  
92 10% 29%  
93 5% 19%  
94 2% 14%  
95 6% 11%  
96 3% 6%  
97 1.4% 3%  
98 0.7% 1.5%  
99 0.5% 0.8%  
100 0.2% 0.3%  
101 0.1% 0.1%  
102 0% 0%  
103 0% 0%  
104 0% 0%  
105 0% 0%  
106 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations