Opinion Poll by Sifo for Svenska Dagbladet, 28–30 August 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti 31.0% 25.5% 24.5–26.6% 24.3–26.9% 24.0–27.1% 23.5–27.6%
Sverigedemokraterna 12.9% 16.8% 15.9–17.7% 15.7–18.0% 15.5–18.2% 15.1–18.6%
Moderata samlingspartiet 23.3% 16.7% 15.8–17.6% 15.6–17.8% 15.4–18.1% 15.0–18.5%
Vänsterpartiet 5.7% 10.5% 9.8–11.2% 9.6–11.4% 9.4–11.6% 9.1–12.0%
Centerpartiet 6.1% 9.5% 8.8–10.2% 8.6–10.4% 8.5–10.6% 8.2–10.9%
Miljöpartiet de gröna 6.9% 6.9% 6.3–7.5% 6.1–7.7% 6.0–7.8% 5.8–8.1%
Liberalerna 5.4% 5.5% 5.0–6.1% 4.8–6.2% 4.7–6.4% 4.5–6.6%
Kristdemokraterna 4.6% 5.5% 5.0–6.1% 4.8–6.2% 4.7–6.4% 4.5–6.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti 113 92 88–96 87–97 86–98 85–100
Sverigedemokraterna 49 61 58–64 57–65 56–65 54–67
Moderata samlingspartiet 84 60 57–63 56–64 55–65 54–67
Vänsterpartiet 21 38 35–40 35–41 34–42 33–43
Centerpartiet 22 34 31–37 31–37 30–38 29–39
Miljöpartiet de gröna 25 25 23–27 22–28 21–28 21–29
Liberalerna 19 20 18–22 17–22 17–23 16–24
Kristdemokraterna 16 20 18–22 17–22 17–23 16–24

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
82 0% 100%  
83 0.1% 99.9%  
84 0.3% 99.8%  
85 0.6% 99.5%  
86 1.5% 98.9%  
87 3% 97%  
88 6% 95%  
89 9% 89%  
90 14% 80%  
91 13% 66%  
92 12% 53% Median
93 15% 41%  
94 8% 26%  
95 6% 17%  
96 5% 12%  
97 3% 6%  
98 1.3% 3%  
99 1.1% 2%  
100 0.3% 0.5%  
101 0.1% 0.2%  
102 0% 0%  
103 0% 0%  
104 0% 0%  
105 0% 0%  
106 0% 0%  
107 0% 0%  
108 0% 0%  
109 0% 0%  
110 0% 0%  
111 0% 0%  
112 0% 0%  
113 0% 0% Last Result

Sverigedemokraterna

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sverigedemokraterna page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0% 100% Last Result
50 0% 100%  
51 0% 100%  
52 0% 100%  
53 0.1% 100%  
54 0.5% 99.8%  
55 1.2% 99.3%  
56 3% 98%  
57 5% 95%  
58 9% 90%  
59 18% 81%  
60 12% 63%  
61 19% 51% Median
62 12% 33%  
63 11% 21%  
64 4% 10%  
65 4% 6%  
66 0.6% 2%  
67 1.0% 1.3%  
68 0.1% 0.2%  
69 0.1% 0.1%  
70 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Moderata samlingspartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0.1% 100%  
53 0.3% 99.9%  
54 0.6% 99.7%  
55 2% 99.1%  
56 3% 97%  
57 6% 94%  
58 11% 88%  
59 17% 77%  
60 13% 60% Median
61 19% 47%  
62 12% 28%  
63 8% 17%  
64 5% 9%  
65 2% 4%  
66 1.1% 2%  
67 0.3% 0.5%  
68 0.1% 0.2%  
69 0% 0.1%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0% Last Result

Vänsterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vänsterpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0% 100% Last Result
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0% 100%  
28 0% 100%  
29 0% 100%  
30 0% 100%  
31 0% 100%  
32 0.4% 99.9%  
33 1.4% 99.6%  
34 3% 98%  
35 10% 95%  
36 15% 85%  
37 17% 70%  
38 19% 53% Median
39 18% 34%  
40 8% 16%  
41 5% 8%  
42 2% 3%  
43 0.7% 1.0%  
44 0.2% 0.3%  
45 0.1% 0.1%  
46 0% 0%  

Centerpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Centerpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0% 100% Last Result
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0% 100%  
28 0.1% 100%  
29 0.5% 99.9%  
30 2% 99.4%  
31 7% 97%  
32 11% 90%  
33 14% 79%  
34 20% 65% Median
35 18% 44%  
36 16% 26%  
37 7% 11%  
38 3% 4%  
39 1.0% 1.3%  
40 0.3% 0.3%  
41 0% 0%  

Miljöpartiet de gröna

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljöpartiet de gröna page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.3% 100%  
21 2% 99.7%  
22 5% 97%  
23 13% 92%  
24 20% 79%  
25 24% 59% Last Result, Median
26 20% 35%  
27 9% 15%  
28 5% 6%  
29 1.0% 1.4%  
30 0.3% 0.4%  
31 0% 0.1%  
32 0% 0%  

Liberalerna

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberalerna page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.1% 100%  
16 1.2% 99.9%  
17 6% 98.7%  
18 17% 92%  
19 20% 76% Last Result
20 18% 55% Median
21 22% 37%  
22 12% 16%  
23 3% 4%  
24 0.7% 0.8%  
25 0.1% 0.1%  
26 0% 0%  

Kristdemokraterna

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristdemokraterna page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.1% 100%  
16 0.9% 99.9% Last Result
17 4% 99.0%  
18 14% 95%  
19 26% 80%  
20 24% 54% Median
21 18% 31%  
22 9% 13%  
23 3% 3%  
24 0.6% 0.8%  
25 0.1% 0.1%  
26 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet 219 186 99.9% 182–191 180–192 179–193 177–195
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna 159 154 0% 150–159 149–160 148–161 145–163
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet 197 152 0% 148–156 147–157 146–158 143–161
Sverigedemokraterna – Moderata samlingspartiet – Kristdemokraterna 149 140 0% 136–145 135–146 134–147 132–149
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna – Liberalerna 141 134 0% 129–138 129–139 128–140 125–142
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet 134 130 0% 126–134 124–135 123–136 121–138
Sverigedemokraterna – Moderata samlingspartiet 133 120 0% 117–125 115–126 115–127 112–129
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Miljöpartiet de gröna 138 117 0% 113–121 112–122 111–123 109–125
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna 122 114 0% 110–118 109–119 108–120 106–122
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna 125 114 0% 110–118 109–119 108–120 106–122
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet 106 95 0% 91–98 90–99 88–100 87–102

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
173 0% 100%  
174 0% 99.9%  
175 0.1% 99.9% Majority
176 0.2% 99.8%  
177 0.4% 99.6%  
178 0.5% 99.2%  
179 2% 98.7%  
180 2% 97%  
181 3% 95%  
182 4% 92%  
183 8% 87%  
184 8% 79%  
185 13% 72%  
186 14% 59% Median
187 10% 45%  
188 11% 35%  
189 8% 25%  
190 6% 17%  
191 4% 11%  
192 3% 6%  
193 2% 3%  
194 0.8% 1.4%  
195 0.3% 0.6%  
196 0.2% 0.3%  
197 0.1% 0.1%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0% Last Result

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
142 0% 100%  
143 0.1% 99.9%  
144 0.2% 99.9%  
145 0.4% 99.7%  
146 0.5% 99.3%  
147 1.2% 98.8%  
148 1.4% 98%  
149 3% 96%  
150 7% 93%  
151 6% 86%  
152 9% 80%  
153 11% 71%  
154 12% 60%  
155 11% 48% Median
156 9% 38%  
157 12% 28%  
158 5% 16%  
159 4% 11% Last Result
160 4% 7%  
161 1.3% 3%  
162 0.8% 2%  
163 0.7% 0.9%  
164 0.2% 0.3%  
165 0.1% 0.1%  
166 0% 0.1%  
167 0% 0%  

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
140 0% 100%  
141 0.1% 99.9%  
142 0.1% 99.9%  
143 0.3% 99.8%  
144 0.6% 99.4%  
145 1.1% 98.8%  
146 2% 98%  
147 3% 96%  
148 7% 93%  
149 9% 86%  
150 7% 77%  
151 14% 71%  
152 13% 57% Median
153 11% 44%  
154 11% 33%  
155 8% 22%  
156 5% 14%  
157 4% 9%  
158 2% 4%  
159 1.1% 2%  
160 0.6% 1.2%  
161 0.4% 0.5%  
162 0.1% 0.2%  
163 0.1% 0.1%  
164 0% 0%  
165 0% 0%  
166 0% 0%  
167 0% 0%  
168 0% 0%  
169 0% 0%  
170 0% 0%  
171 0% 0%  
172 0% 0%  
173 0% 0%  
174 0% 0%  
175 0% 0% Majority
176 0% 0%  
177 0% 0%  
178 0% 0%  
179 0% 0%  
180 0% 0%  
181 0% 0%  
182 0% 0%  
183 0% 0%  
184 0% 0%  
185 0% 0%  
186 0% 0%  
187 0% 0%  
188 0% 0%  
189 0% 0%  
190 0% 0%  
191 0% 0%  
192 0% 0%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0% Last Result

Sverigedemokraterna – Moderata samlingspartiet – Kristdemokraterna

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
129 0% 100%  
130 0.1% 99.9%  
131 0.2% 99.8%  
132 0.5% 99.6%  
133 0.9% 99.1%  
134 1.3% 98%  
135 4% 97%  
136 4% 93%  
137 8% 89%  
138 9% 82%  
139 12% 73%  
140 12% 61%  
141 10% 49% Median
142 10% 39%  
143 13% 30%  
144 6% 16%  
145 4% 10%  
146 3% 6%  
147 1.4% 3%  
148 0.9% 2%  
149 0.3% 0.6% Last Result
150 0.3% 0.3%  
151 0% 0.1%  
152 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna – Liberalerna

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
123 0% 100%  
124 0.3% 99.9%  
125 0.4% 99.7%  
126 0.4% 99.2%  
127 0.8% 98.8%  
128 3% 98%  
129 6% 95%  
130 5% 89%  
131 4% 84%  
132 9% 80%  
133 17% 71%  
134 15% 54% Median
135 7% 39%  
136 6% 31%  
137 9% 25%  
138 11% 16%  
139 2% 5%  
140 1.0% 3%  
141 0.9% 2% Last Result
142 0.9% 1.2%  
143 0.3% 0.3%  
144 0% 0.1%  
145 0% 0%  

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
118 0% 100%  
119 0.1% 99.9%  
120 0.3% 99.9%  
121 0.2% 99.6%  
122 0.8% 99.4%  
123 2% 98.6%  
124 3% 97%  
125 4% 94%  
126 8% 90%  
127 8% 82%  
128 12% 74%  
129 12% 62%  
130 16% 50% Median
131 7% 35%  
132 10% 28%  
133 6% 17%  
134 5% 11% Last Result
135 3% 6%  
136 2% 4%  
137 0.7% 2%  
138 0.6% 0.9%  
139 0.2% 0.3%  
140 0.1% 0.1%  
141 0% 0%  

Sverigedemokraterna – Moderata samlingspartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
109 0.1% 100%  
110 0% 99.9%  
111 0.2% 99.9%  
112 0.3% 99.7%  
113 0.6% 99.4%  
114 1.0% 98.7%  
115 4% 98%  
116 3% 94%  
117 5% 91%  
118 9% 86%  
119 12% 77%  
120 16% 65%  
121 7% 49% Median
122 16% 43%  
123 6% 27%  
124 8% 20%  
125 6% 12%  
126 3% 6%  
127 2% 3%  
128 0.7% 1.3%  
129 0.4% 0.6%  
130 0.1% 0.2%  
131 0% 0.1%  
132 0% 0%  
133 0% 0% Last Result

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Miljöpartiet de gröna

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
106 0% 100%  
107 0.2% 99.9%  
108 0.2% 99.8%  
109 0.7% 99.5%  
110 1.2% 98.9%  
111 2% 98%  
112 5% 96%  
113 6% 91%  
114 10% 85%  
115 12% 76%  
116 12% 64%  
117 11% 51% Median
118 10% 40%  
119 11% 30%  
120 8% 19%  
121 5% 11%  
122 3% 6%  
123 2% 3%  
124 0.8% 1.4%  
125 0.4% 0.7%  
126 0.2% 0.2%  
127 0.1% 0.1%  
128 0% 0%  
129 0% 0%  
130 0% 0%  
131 0% 0%  
132 0% 0%  
133 0% 0%  
134 0% 0%  
135 0% 0%  
136 0% 0%  
137 0% 0%  
138 0% 0% Last Result

Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
104 0.1% 100%  
105 0.2% 99.9%  
106 0.5% 99.7%  
107 1.2% 99.2%  
108 2% 98%  
109 4% 96%  
110 5% 92%  
111 7% 87%  
112 9% 80%  
113 16% 72%  
114 9% 56% Median
115 11% 46%  
116 12% 36%  
117 11% 23%  
118 4% 13%  
119 6% 9%  
120 1.4% 3%  
121 1.3% 2%  
122 0.4% 0.7% Last Result
123 0.2% 0.3%  
124 0.1% 0.1%  
125 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
104 0.1% 100%  
105 0.2% 99.9%  
106 0.5% 99.7%  
107 0.8% 99.1%  
108 2% 98%  
109 3% 97%  
110 5% 93%  
111 7% 88%  
112 8% 81%  
113 15% 73%  
114 14% 58% Median
115 10% 44%  
116 9% 34%  
117 11% 24%  
118 5% 13%  
119 4% 8%  
120 2% 3%  
121 0.7% 2%  
122 0.6% 1.0%  
123 0.3% 0.4%  
124 0.1% 0.1%  
125 0% 0% Last Result

Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
85 0.1% 100%  
86 0.3% 99.9%  
87 0.7% 99.6%  
88 2% 98.9%  
89 2% 97%  
90 5% 95%  
91 6% 90%  
92 13% 84%  
93 11% 71%  
94 9% 60% Median
95 13% 51%  
96 14% 38%  
97 12% 24%  
98 5% 12%  
99 3% 8%  
100 3% 5%  
101 2% 2%  
102 0.3% 0.5%  
103 0.1% 0.2%  
104 0% 0.1%  
105 0% 0%  
106 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations