Opinion Poll by Sifo for Svenska Dagbladet, 29 August–3 September 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti 31.0% 25.3% 24.3–26.4% 24.0–26.7% 23.7–26.9% 23.2–27.4%
Sverigedemokraterna 12.9% 17.2% 16.3–18.2% 16.1–18.4% 15.9–18.6% 15.5–19.1%
Moderata samlingspartiet 23.3% 17.0% 16.1–17.9% 15.9–18.2% 15.7–18.4% 15.3–18.9%
Vänsterpartiet 5.7% 11.1% 10.4–11.9% 10.2–12.1% 10.0–12.3% 9.6–12.7%
Centerpartiet 6.1% 8.4% 7.8–9.1% 7.6–9.3% 7.5–9.5% 7.2–9.8%
Liberalerna 5.4% 6.7% 6.1–7.3% 6.0–7.5% 5.8–7.7% 5.6–8.0%
Kristdemokraterna 4.6% 6.0% 5.5–6.6% 5.3–6.8% 5.2–6.9% 4.9–7.2%
Miljöpartiet de gröna 6.9% 5.4% 4.9–6.0% 4.8–6.2% 4.6–6.3% 4.4–6.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti 113 91 87–94 86–96 85–97 84–98
Sverigedemokraterna 49 62 58–65 58–66 57–67 56–68
Moderata samlingspartiet 84 61 58–64 57–65 56–66 55–68
Vänsterpartiet 21 40 37–42 36–43 36–44 35–45
Centerpartiet 22 30 28–33 27–34 27–34 26–35
Liberalerna 19 24 22–26 21–27 21–28 20–29
Kristdemokraterna 16 21 20–24 19–24 19–25 18–26
Miljöpartiet de gröna 25 19 18–21 17–22 17–23 16–24

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
81 0% 100%  
82 0.1% 99.9%  
83 0.3% 99.8%  
84 0.8% 99.5%  
85 3% 98.7%  
86 4% 96%  
87 7% 92%  
88 9% 85%  
89 7% 76%  
90 17% 69%  
91 18% 52% Median
92 12% 35%  
93 6% 23%  
94 7% 16%  
95 3% 10%  
96 3% 7%  
97 3% 4%  
98 0.5% 0.9%  
99 0.2% 0.4%  
100 0.1% 0.2%  
101 0% 0%  
102 0% 0%  
103 0% 0%  
104 0% 0%  
105 0% 0%  
106 0% 0%  
107 0% 0%  
108 0% 0%  
109 0% 0%  
110 0% 0%  
111 0% 0%  
112 0% 0%  
113 0% 0% Last Result

Sverigedemokraterna

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sverigedemokraterna page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0% 100% Last Result
50 0% 100%  
51 0% 100%  
52 0% 100%  
53 0% 100%  
54 0.1% 100%  
55 0.2% 99.9%  
56 1.3% 99.6%  
57 3% 98%  
58 7% 96%  
59 5% 89%  
60 9% 84%  
61 17% 75%  
62 17% 58% Median
63 19% 41%  
64 10% 22%  
65 6% 12%  
66 3% 7%  
67 2% 4%  
68 1.2% 2%  
69 0.4% 0.5%  
70 0.1% 0.1%  
71 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Moderata samlingspartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0.1% 100%  
54 0.3% 99.9%  
55 0.8% 99.6%  
56 2% 98.9%  
57 3% 97%  
58 10% 94%  
59 10% 84%  
60 14% 74%  
61 13% 60% Median
62 18% 46%  
63 12% 28%  
64 8% 16%  
65 4% 9%  
66 2% 4%  
67 1.3% 2%  
68 0.3% 0.5%  
69 0.1% 0.2%  
70 0% 0.1%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0% Last Result

Vänsterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vänsterpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0% 100% Last Result
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0% 100%  
28 0% 100%  
29 0% 100%  
30 0% 100%  
31 0% 100%  
32 0% 100%  
33 0.1% 100%  
34 0.4% 99.9%  
35 1.1% 99.6%  
36 4% 98.5%  
37 8% 94%  
38 14% 87%  
39 17% 73%  
40 18% 56% Median
41 15% 38%  
42 13% 23%  
43 6% 10%  
44 3% 4%  
45 1.0% 1.5%  
46 0.3% 0.5%  
47 0.1% 0.1%  
48 0% 0%  

Centerpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Centerpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0% 100% Last Result
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0.3% 99.9%  
26 2% 99.6%  
27 4% 98%  
28 10% 94%  
29 17% 84%  
30 20% 67% Median
31 21% 47%  
32 14% 26%  
33 8% 13%  
34 4% 5%  
35 1.2% 2%  
36 0.2% 0.3%  
37 0.1% 0.1%  
38 0% 0%  

Liberalerna

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberalerna page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.2% 100% Last Result
20 1.4% 99.8%  
21 4% 98%  
22 12% 94%  
23 22% 83%  
24 18% 61% Median
25 23% 43%  
26 12% 21%  
27 5% 8%  
28 2% 3%  
29 0.7% 0.8%  
30 0.1% 0.1%  
31 0% 0%  

Kristdemokraterna

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristdemokraterna page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0% 100% Last Result
17 0.4% 100%  
18 0.9% 99.5%  
19 7% 98.7%  
20 20% 92%  
21 23% 71% Median
22 21% 48%  
23 12% 27%  
24 10% 15%  
25 4% 5%  
26 0.4% 0.6%  
27 0.2% 0.2%  
28 0% 0%  

Miljöpartiet de gröna

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljöpartiet de gröna page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.3% 100%  
16 2% 99.7%  
17 6% 98%  
18 20% 92%  
19 25% 72% Median
20 22% 46%  
21 15% 25%  
22 6% 9%  
23 2% 3%  
24 0.5% 0.6%  
25 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
26 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet 219 182 98.7% 178–187 177–188 176–189 174–191
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet 197 152 0% 148–156 146–157 145–158 143–160
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna 159 150 0% 146–154 145–156 144–156 142–159
Sverigedemokraterna – Moderata samlingspartiet – Kristdemokraterna 149 145 0% 141–149 139–150 138–151 136–153
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna – Kristdemokraterna 141 137 0% 133–141 132–142 131–143 129–145
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet 134 131 0% 126–135 125–136 125–137 122–139
Sverigedemokraterna – Moderata samlingspartiet 133 123 0% 119–127 118–128 117–129 115–131
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna 125 116 0% 112–119 110–120 109–121 108–123
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna 122 113 0% 109–117 108–118 107–119 105–121
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Miljöpartiet de gröna 138 110 0% 106–114 105–116 104–116 103–118
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet 106 92 0% 88–95 87–96 86–97 84–99

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
171 0.1% 100%  
172 0.1% 99.9%  
173 0.2% 99.8%  
174 0.8% 99.5%  
175 1.1% 98.7% Majority
176 2% 98%  
177 3% 95%  
178 8% 92%  
179 6% 85%  
180 11% 78%  
181 11% 67%  
182 10% 56% Median
183 14% 47%  
184 8% 33%  
185 9% 25%  
186 6% 17%  
187 4% 10%  
188 3% 6%  
189 1.5% 3%  
190 0.6% 1.2%  
191 0.4% 0.6%  
192 0.2% 0.3%  
193 0.1% 0.1%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0% Last Result

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
141 0.1% 100%  
142 0.1% 99.9%  
143 0.4% 99.8%  
144 0.5% 99.4%  
145 2% 98.9%  
146 3% 97%  
147 4% 94%  
148 8% 90%  
149 9% 82%  
150 11% 73%  
151 8% 62%  
152 14% 54% Median
153 11% 40%  
154 7% 29%  
155 7% 22%  
156 6% 15%  
157 4% 9%  
158 3% 5%  
159 1.1% 2%  
160 0.6% 1.0%  
161 0.2% 0.4%  
162 0.2% 0.2%  
163 0% 0.1%  
164 0% 0%  
165 0% 0%  
166 0% 0%  
167 0% 0%  
168 0% 0%  
169 0% 0%  
170 0% 0%  
171 0% 0%  
172 0% 0%  
173 0% 0%  
174 0% 0%  
175 0% 0% Majority
176 0% 0%  
177 0% 0%  
178 0% 0%  
179 0% 0%  
180 0% 0%  
181 0% 0%  
182 0% 0%  
183 0% 0%  
184 0% 0%  
185 0% 0%  
186 0% 0%  
187 0% 0%  
188 0% 0%  
189 0% 0%  
190 0% 0%  
191 0% 0%  
192 0% 0%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0% Last Result

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
139 0.1% 100%  
140 0.1% 99.9%  
141 0.2% 99.8%  
142 0.4% 99.6%  
143 2% 99.2%  
144 2% 98%  
145 2% 96%  
146 7% 94%  
147 11% 87%  
148 10% 76%  
149 10% 66%  
150 17% 57% Median
151 12% 39%  
152 9% 28%  
153 4% 19%  
154 5% 15%  
155 4% 10%  
156 3% 6%  
157 0.8% 2%  
158 1.0% 2%  
159 0.2% 0.5% Last Result
160 0.3% 0.3%  
161 0% 0.1%  
162 0% 0%  

Sverigedemokraterna – Moderata samlingspartiet – Kristdemokraterna

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
134 0.1% 100%  
135 0.2% 99.9%  
136 0.4% 99.7%  
137 0.9% 99.4%  
138 2% 98%  
139 3% 96%  
140 3% 94%  
141 7% 91%  
142 8% 84%  
143 11% 75%  
144 13% 64% Median
145 12% 51%  
146 15% 39%  
147 6% 24%  
148 7% 18%  
149 5% 11% Last Result
150 3% 6%  
151 2% 3%  
152 0.9% 1.5%  
153 0.3% 0.5%  
154 0.1% 0.3%  
155 0.1% 0.1%  
156 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna – Kristdemokraterna

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
126 0% 100%  
127 0.1% 99.9%  
128 0.3% 99.8%  
129 0.4% 99.5%  
130 1.5% 99.2%  
131 2% 98%  
132 4% 96%  
133 4% 92%  
134 6% 88%  
135 11% 81%  
136 11% 71% Median
137 16% 60%  
138 10% 45%  
139 13% 35%  
140 6% 22%  
141 8% 16% Last Result
142 3% 8%  
143 3% 5%  
144 0.7% 2%  
145 0.8% 1.2%  
146 0.3% 0.5%  
147 0.2% 0.2%  
148 0% 0.1%  
149 0% 0%  

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
120 0.1% 100%  
121 0.1% 99.9%  
122 0.3% 99.8%  
123 0.7% 99.5%  
124 1.3% 98.8%  
125 4% 98%  
126 4% 94%  
127 10% 90%  
128 7% 79%  
129 9% 72%  
130 12% 63%  
131 14% 51% Median
132 11% 37%  
133 10% 26%  
134 4% 16% Last Result
135 4% 11%  
136 4% 8%  
137 2% 4%  
138 0.9% 2%  
139 0.3% 0.6%  
140 0.2% 0.3%  
141 0.1% 0.1%  
142 0.1% 0.1%  
143 0% 0%  

Sverigedemokraterna – Moderata samlingspartiet

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
113 0.1% 100%  
114 0.2% 99.9%  
115 0.6% 99.6%  
116 0.8% 99.0%  
117 2% 98%  
118 4% 96%  
119 4% 92%  
120 10% 88%  
121 13% 78%  
122 9% 65%  
123 7% 56% Median
124 14% 49%  
125 17% 36%  
126 7% 18%  
127 4% 11%  
128 3% 7%  
129 2% 4%  
130 0.9% 2%  
131 0.4% 0.8%  
132 0.3% 0.4%  
133 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
134 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
105 0.1% 100%  
106 0.1% 99.9%  
107 0.2% 99.8%  
108 0.8% 99.6%  
109 2% 98.8%  
110 2% 97%  
111 4% 95%  
112 7% 91%  
113 8% 84%  
114 9% 76%  
115 15% 67% Median
116 14% 52%  
117 10% 38%  
118 13% 28%  
119 6% 16%  
120 5% 10%  
121 2% 5%  
122 1.2% 2%  
123 0.8% 1.3%  
124 0.2% 0.4%  
125 0.1% 0.2% Last Result
126 0.1% 0.1%  
127 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
103 0.1% 100%  
104 0.2% 99.9%  
105 0.4% 99.7%  
106 0.9% 99.4%  
107 1.4% 98%  
108 4% 97%  
109 5% 93%  
110 9% 88%  
111 10% 79%  
112 12% 69% Median
113 13% 57%  
114 13% 44%  
115 9% 31%  
116 9% 21%  
117 4% 12%  
118 4% 8%  
119 2% 4%  
120 1.0% 2%  
121 0.5% 0.9%  
122 0.2% 0.4% Last Result
123 0.1% 0.1%  
124 0% 0%  

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Miljöpartiet de gröna

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
100 0.1% 100%  
101 0.1% 99.9%  
102 0.3% 99.8%  
103 0.9% 99.5%  
104 1.5% 98.6%  
105 3% 97%  
106 4% 94%  
107 7% 89%  
108 14% 82%  
109 14% 68%  
110 13% 54% Median
111 9% 41%  
112 12% 32%  
113 7% 20%  
114 5% 14%  
115 3% 9%  
116 3% 5%  
117 0.9% 2%  
118 0.5% 1.0%  
119 0.3% 0.5%  
120 0.1% 0.1%  
121 0% 0.1%  
122 0% 0%  
123 0% 0%  
124 0% 0%  
125 0% 0%  
126 0% 0%  
127 0% 0%  
128 0% 0%  
129 0% 0%  
130 0% 0%  
131 0% 0%  
132 0% 0%  
133 0% 0%  
134 0% 0%  
135 0% 0%  
136 0% 0%  
137 0% 0%  
138 0% 0% Last Result

Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
82 0.1% 100%  
83 0.2% 99.9%  
84 0.5% 99.7%  
85 0.9% 99.2%  
86 2% 98%  
87 6% 96%  
88 5% 91%  
89 13% 86%  
90 10% 73%  
91 13% 63% Median
92 12% 51%  
93 15% 39%  
94 9% 24%  
95 8% 15%  
96 3% 7%  
97 2% 4%  
98 0.8% 2%  
99 0.4% 0.8%  
100 0.3% 0.3%  
101 0.1% 0.1%  
102 0% 0%  
103 0% 0%  
104 0% 0%  
105 0% 0%  
106 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations