Opinion Poll by Demoskop for Expressen, 30 August–4 September 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti 31.0% 25.5% 24.1–26.9% 23.7–27.3% 23.4–27.7% 22.8–28.4%
Sverigedemokraterna 12.9% 18.2% 17.0–19.5% 16.6–19.8% 16.4–20.1% 15.8–20.8%
Moderata samlingspartiet 23.3% 17.8% 16.6–19.1% 16.3–19.4% 16.0–19.8% 15.5–20.4%
Vänsterpartiet 5.7% 9.4% 8.6–10.4% 8.3–10.7% 8.1–11.0% 7.7–11.5%
Centerpartiet 6.1% 8.9% 8.0–9.8% 7.8–10.1% 7.6–10.4% 7.2–10.9%
Liberalerna 5.4% 6.2% 5.5–7.0% 5.3–7.3% 5.1–7.5% 4.8–7.9%
Kristdemokraterna 4.6% 5.9% 5.2–6.7% 5.0–7.0% 4.8–7.2% 4.5–7.6%
Miljöpartiet de gröna 6.9% 4.8% 4.2–5.5% 4.0–5.7% 3.8–5.9% 3.6–6.3%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti 113 92 86–97 85–99 84–100 81–103
Sverigedemokraterna 49 65 61–70 60–72 59–73 56–75
Moderata samlingspartiet 84 64 60–69 58–70 57–71 55–73
Vänsterpartiet 21 34 31–38 30–38 29–39 27–41
Centerpartiet 22 32 29–35 28–36 27–37 26–39
Liberalerna 19 22 20–25 19–26 18–27 17–29
Kristdemokraterna 16 21 19–24 18–25 17–26 16–27
Miljöpartiet de gröna 25 17 15–20 0–21 0–21 0–23

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
78 0% 100%  
79 0.1% 99.9%  
80 0.2% 99.9%  
81 0.5% 99.7%  
82 0.6% 99.2%  
83 0.9% 98.6%  
84 2% 98%  
85 2% 95%  
86 4% 93%  
87 6% 89%  
88 6% 83%  
89 8% 77%  
90 10% 69%  
91 8% 59%  
92 9% 51% Median
93 9% 42%  
94 8% 32%  
95 8% 25%  
96 4% 17%  
97 5% 13%  
98 3% 8%  
99 2% 5%  
100 1.2% 3%  
101 0.8% 2%  
102 0.4% 1.1%  
103 0.2% 0.7%  
104 0.2% 0.5%  
105 0.2% 0.3%  
106 0% 0.1%  
107 0% 0.1%  
108 0% 0%  
109 0% 0%  
110 0% 0%  
111 0% 0%  
112 0% 0%  
113 0% 0% Last Result

Sverigedemokraterna

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sverigedemokraterna page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0% 100% Last Result
50 0% 100%  
51 0% 100%  
52 0% 100%  
53 0% 100%  
54 0.1% 100%  
55 0.1% 99.9%  
56 0.3% 99.8%  
57 0.6% 99.5%  
58 1.2% 98.9%  
59 3% 98%  
60 4% 95%  
61 7% 91%  
62 8% 85%  
63 6% 77%  
64 14% 72%  
65 9% 58% Median
66 10% 49%  
67 13% 39%  
68 7% 26%  
69 6% 19%  
70 4% 13%  
71 4% 9%  
72 2% 5%  
73 2% 3%  
74 0.8% 2%  
75 0.4% 0.7%  
76 0.2% 0.3%  
77 0.1% 0.2%  
78 0.1% 0.1%  
79 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Moderata samlingspartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0.1% 100%  
54 0.1% 99.9%  
55 0.3% 99.8%  
56 0.8% 99.5%  
57 1.5% 98.6%  
58 3% 97%  
59 4% 95%  
60 6% 91%  
61 7% 85%  
62 9% 77%  
63 11% 68%  
64 13% 57% Median
65 10% 44%  
66 11% 34%  
67 7% 23%  
68 5% 17%  
69 6% 12%  
70 2% 6%  
71 1.3% 4%  
72 1.1% 2%  
73 0.8% 1.2%  
74 0.2% 0.4%  
75 0.1% 0.2%  
76 0.1% 0.1%  
77 0% 0.1%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0% Last Result

Vänsterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vänsterpartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0% 100% Last Result
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0.1% 100%  
27 0.5% 99.9%  
28 1.0% 99.4%  
29 2% 98%  
30 5% 96%  
31 9% 92%  
32 12% 82%  
33 15% 70%  
34 14% 55% Median
35 14% 41%  
36 10% 28%  
37 6% 17%  
38 6% 11%  
39 2% 5%  
40 1.4% 2%  
41 0.6% 1.1%  
42 0.3% 0.5%  
43 0.1% 0.2%  
44 0% 0.1%  
45 0% 0%  

Centerpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Centerpartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0% 100% Last Result
23 0% 100%  
24 0.1% 100%  
25 0.3% 99.9%  
26 1.0% 99.6%  
27 2% 98.6%  
28 5% 97%  
29 10% 92%  
30 11% 82%  
31 12% 71%  
32 16% 59% Median
33 14% 42%  
34 12% 28%  
35 7% 16%  
36 4% 9%  
37 2% 5%  
38 1.4% 2%  
39 0.5% 0.8%  
40 0.1% 0.3%  
41 0.1% 0.2%  
42 0% 0%  

Liberalerna

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberalerna page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0.1% 100%  
17 0.7% 99.9%  
18 2% 99.2%  
19 6% 97% Last Result
20 10% 92%  
21 19% 82%  
22 18% 64% Median
23 14% 46%  
24 14% 31%  
25 10% 18%  
26 4% 8%  
27 3% 4%  
28 0.8% 1.4%  
29 0.4% 0.6%  
30 0.1% 0.2%  
31 0% 0%  

Kristdemokraterna

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristdemokraterna page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.1% 100%  
16 0.5% 99.9% Last Result
17 2% 99.3%  
18 7% 97%  
19 14% 91%  
20 14% 76%  
21 15% 62% Median
22 12% 47%  
23 18% 36%  
24 9% 17%  
25 6% 8%  
26 2% 3%  
27 0.7% 1.1%  
28 0.3% 0.4%  
29 0.1% 0.1%  
30 0% 0%  

Miljöpartiet de gröna

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljöpartiet de gröna page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 5% 100%  
1 0% 95%  
2 0% 95%  
3 0% 95%  
4 0% 95%  
5 0% 95%  
6 0% 95%  
7 0% 95%  
8 0% 95%  
9 0% 95%  
10 0% 95%  
11 0% 95%  
12 0% 95%  
13 0% 95%  
14 0.9% 95%  
15 10% 94%  
16 17% 83%  
17 21% 66% Median
18 20% 45%  
19 13% 25%  
20 7% 13%  
21 3% 6%  
22 2% 2%  
23 0.4% 0.5%  
24 0.1% 0.1%  
25 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet 219 188 99.0% 181–195 179–197 177–198 173–204
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet 197 156 0.1% 150–162 148–164 146–166 142–170
Sverigedemokraterna – Moderata samlingspartiet – Kristdemokraterna 149 151 0% 145–157 142–159 141–161 138–165
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna 159 142 0% 136–149 133–150 130–152 125–155
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna – Kristdemokraterna 141 140 0% 134–146 132–148 130–150 128–154
Sverigedemokraterna – Moderata samlingspartiet 133 129 0% 124–136 122–137 120–140 117–143
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet 134 126 0% 119–131 118–133 117–135 114–139
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna 125 118 0% 113–125 111–126 110–128 107–131
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna 122 118 0% 112–124 110–125 109–127 106–129
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Miljöpartiet de gröna 138 109 0% 102–114 99–116 95–118 90–120
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet 106 96 0% 91–102 89–103 88–105 85–107

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
170 0% 100%  
171 0.1% 99.9%  
172 0.2% 99.8%  
173 0.1% 99.6%  
174 0.5% 99.5%  
175 0.3% 99.0% Majority
176 0.7% 98.7%  
177 0.9% 98%  
178 1.4% 97%  
179 2% 96%  
180 2% 94%  
181 3% 91%  
182 4% 88%  
183 5% 84%  
184 6% 79%  
185 7% 74%  
186 9% 67%  
187 5% 58%  
188 9% 53% Median
189 4% 44%  
190 10% 40%  
191 7% 29%  
192 6% 22%  
193 4% 17%  
194 2% 13%  
195 2% 10%  
196 2% 8%  
197 1.4% 6%  
198 2% 4%  
199 0.6% 2%  
200 0.5% 2%  
201 0.5% 1.4%  
202 0.1% 0.9%  
203 0.2% 0.8%  
204 0.2% 0.5%  
205 0% 0.4%  
206 0.1% 0.3%  
207 0.1% 0.2%  
208 0.1% 0.1%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0% Last Result

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
139 0% 100%  
140 0.1% 99.9%  
141 0.1% 99.9%  
142 0.3% 99.8%  
143 0.3% 99.4%  
144 0.7% 99.1%  
145 0.6% 98%  
146 1.2% 98%  
147 1.4% 97%  
148 2% 95%  
149 3% 93%  
150 5% 90%  
151 6% 85%  
152 4% 79%  
153 8% 74%  
154 8% 66%  
155 7% 59%  
156 8% 52% Median
157 8% 44%  
158 8% 36%  
159 7% 28%  
160 4% 22%  
161 5% 17%  
162 3% 12%  
163 2% 9%  
164 3% 7%  
165 1.1% 4%  
166 1.1% 3%  
167 0.5% 2%  
168 0.4% 1.2%  
169 0.2% 0.8%  
170 0.2% 0.6%  
171 0.1% 0.4%  
172 0.1% 0.4%  
173 0% 0.2%  
174 0.1% 0.2%  
175 0.1% 0.1% Majority
176 0% 0%  
177 0% 0%  
178 0% 0%  
179 0% 0%  
180 0% 0%  
181 0% 0%  
182 0% 0%  
183 0% 0%  
184 0% 0%  
185 0% 0%  
186 0% 0%  
187 0% 0%  
188 0% 0%  
189 0% 0%  
190 0% 0%  
191 0% 0%  
192 0% 0%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0% Last Result

Sverigedemokraterna – Moderata samlingspartiet – Kristdemokraterna

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
134 0% 100%  
135 0.1% 99.9%  
136 0.1% 99.9%  
137 0.2% 99.8%  
138 0.3% 99.5%  
139 0.4% 99.2%  
140 0.6% 98.9%  
141 2% 98%  
142 2% 97%  
143 1.1% 95%  
144 3% 94%  
145 4% 90%  
146 6% 86%  
147 5% 81%  
148 9% 76%  
149 6% 67% Last Result
150 7% 61% Median
151 10% 54%  
152 9% 44%  
153 6% 35%  
154 5% 29%  
155 6% 25%  
156 6% 18%  
157 4% 13%  
158 2% 9%  
159 2% 6%  
160 1.3% 4%  
161 1.2% 3%  
162 0.4% 2%  
163 0.4% 1.4%  
164 0.2% 1.0%  
165 0.3% 0.7%  
166 0.1% 0.4%  
167 0.2% 0.3%  
168 0.1% 0.1%  
169 0% 0.1%  
170 0% 0%  

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
121 0% 100%  
122 0.1% 99.9%  
123 0.1% 99.9%  
124 0.2% 99.7%  
125 0.1% 99.5%  
126 0.2% 99.4%  
127 0.2% 99.2%  
128 0.4% 99.0%  
129 0.3% 98.7%  
130 1.4% 98%  
131 0.7% 97%  
132 1.1% 96%  
133 1.4% 95%  
134 1.3% 94%  
135 1.5% 92%  
136 4% 91%  
137 4% 87%  
138 6% 82%  
139 4% 76%  
140 8% 72%  
141 7% 64%  
142 8% 57%  
143 7% 50% Median
144 8% 43%  
145 8% 35%  
146 4% 28%  
147 8% 23%  
148 4% 15%  
149 4% 11%  
150 2% 7%  
151 2% 4%  
152 1.1% 3%  
153 0.6% 2%  
154 0.4% 1.0%  
155 0.3% 0.5%  
156 0.1% 0.2%  
157 0.1% 0.1%  
158 0% 0%  
159 0% 0% Last Result

Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna – Kristdemokraterna

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
123 0% 100%  
124 0% 99.9%  
125 0% 99.9%  
126 0.1% 99.9%  
127 0.2% 99.8%  
128 0.5% 99.6%  
129 1.1% 99.1%  
130 1.0% 98%  
131 1.0% 97%  
132 1.4% 96%  
133 3% 95%  
134 5% 92%  
135 8% 86%  
136 5% 79%  
137 3% 73%  
138 6% 70%  
139 7% 64% Median
140 14% 57%  
141 10% 43% Last Result
142 6% 33%  
143 2% 27%  
144 3% 25%  
145 6% 21%  
146 5% 15%  
147 4% 10%  
148 2% 6%  
149 0.7% 3%  
150 0.6% 3%  
151 0.5% 2%  
152 0.5% 1.4%  
153 0.3% 0.9%  
154 0.3% 0.6%  
155 0.2% 0.3%  
156 0% 0.1%  
157 0% 0.1%  
158 0% 0.1%  
159 0% 0%  

Sverigedemokraterna – Moderata samlingspartiet

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
114 0% 100%  
115 0.1% 99.9%  
116 0.1% 99.8%  
117 0.2% 99.7%  
118 0.5% 99.5%  
119 0.5% 99.0%  
120 1.0% 98%  
121 2% 97%  
122 2% 95%  
123 3% 93%  
124 3% 90%  
125 9% 87%  
126 5% 78%  
127 7% 73%  
128 11% 67%  
129 6% 56% Median
130 8% 49%  
131 7% 41%  
132 8% 34%  
133 7% 26% Last Result
134 4% 19%  
135 5% 16%  
136 3% 10%  
137 3% 7%  
138 1.3% 5%  
139 0.7% 4%  
140 2% 3%  
141 0.4% 1.3%  
142 0.4% 1.0%  
143 0.2% 0.6%  
144 0.2% 0.4%  
145 0.1% 0.2%  
146 0.1% 0.1%  
147 0% 0%  

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
110 0% 100%  
111 0.1% 99.9%  
112 0.1% 99.8%  
113 0.2% 99.7%  
114 0.3% 99.5%  
115 0.5% 99.2%  
116 0.9% 98.7%  
117 2% 98%  
118 3% 96%  
119 4% 94%  
120 5% 90%  
121 4% 85%  
122 8% 80%  
123 6% 72%  
124 9% 66%  
125 5% 57%  
126 10% 52% Median
127 8% 42%  
128 6% 34%  
129 6% 28%  
130 6% 22%  
131 6% 16%  
132 2% 10%  
133 3% 8%  
134 1.4% 5% Last Result
135 1.1% 3%  
136 0.8% 2%  
137 0.4% 1.4%  
138 0.4% 1.0%  
139 0.2% 0.6%  
140 0.1% 0.4%  
141 0.1% 0.2%  
142 0% 0.1%  
143 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 99.9%  
105 0.1% 99.9%  
106 0.1% 99.8%  
107 0.4% 99.7%  
108 0.7% 99.3%  
109 0.8% 98.6%  
110 2% 98%  
111 2% 96%  
112 3% 94%  
113 5% 91%  
114 4% 86%  
115 5% 82%  
116 9% 77%  
117 14% 68%  
118 5% 54% Median
119 12% 50%  
120 5% 38%  
121 5% 32%  
122 7% 27%  
123 5% 20%  
124 3% 15%  
125 6% 12% Last Result
126 2% 6%  
127 2% 4%  
128 0.7% 3%  
129 0.6% 2%  
130 0.5% 1.2%  
131 0.3% 0.7%  
132 0.2% 0.4%  
133 0.1% 0.2%  
134 0% 0.1%  
135 0% 0.1%  
136 0% 0.1%  
137 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
103 0% 100%  
104 0.1% 99.9%  
105 0.2% 99.8%  
106 0.3% 99.6%  
107 0.6% 99.2%  
108 1.0% 98.7%  
109 1.4% 98%  
110 3% 96%  
111 3% 93%  
112 5% 90%  
113 6% 85%  
114 7% 79%  
115 6% 72%  
116 5% 66%  
117 10% 61% Median
118 8% 51%  
119 9% 43%  
120 8% 34%  
121 7% 26%  
122 4% 19% Last Result
123 4% 15%  
124 3% 10%  
125 3% 7%  
126 1.3% 4%  
127 1.0% 3%  
128 0.4% 2%  
129 0.7% 1.2%  
130 0.1% 0.5%  
131 0.1% 0.4%  
132 0.1% 0.3%  
133 0.1% 0.1%  
134 0% 0.1%  
135 0% 0%  

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Miljöpartiet de gröna

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
86 0% 100%  
87 0.1% 99.9%  
88 0.1% 99.8%  
89 0.1% 99.8%  
90 0.2% 99.7%  
91 0.1% 99.5%  
92 0.2% 99.3%  
93 0.4% 99.2%  
94 0.3% 98.8%  
95 1.4% 98%  
96 0.3% 97%  
97 0.6% 97%  
98 0.7% 96%  
99 1.1% 95%  
100 1.3% 94%  
101 3% 93%  
102 2% 90%  
103 4% 88%  
104 5% 84%  
105 5% 80%  
106 7% 75%  
107 7% 68%  
108 8% 60%  
109 9% 52% Median
110 9% 43%  
111 7% 34%  
112 8% 27%  
113 7% 19%  
114 3% 12%  
115 3% 9%  
116 2% 5%  
117 0.9% 3%  
118 1.2% 3%  
119 0.4% 1.3%  
120 0.6% 0.8%  
121 0.2% 0.3%  
122 0.1% 0.1%  
123 0% 0.1%  
124 0% 0%  
125 0% 0%  
126 0% 0%  
127 0% 0%  
128 0% 0%  
129 0% 0%  
130 0% 0%  
131 0% 0%  
132 0% 0%  
133 0% 0%  
134 0% 0%  
135 0% 0%  
136 0% 0%  
137 0% 0%  
138 0% 0% Last Result

Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
83 0.1% 100%  
84 0.1% 99.9%  
85 0.3% 99.8%  
86 0.5% 99.5%  
87 0.6% 99.0%  
88 2% 98%  
89 3% 97%  
90 3% 94%  
91 5% 91%  
92 5% 85%  
93 7% 81%  
94 10% 73%  
95 7% 63%  
96 11% 56% Median
97 7% 45%  
98 9% 38%  
99 7% 29%  
100 8% 22%  
101 3% 14%  
102 2% 11%  
103 4% 8%  
104 2% 4%  
105 1.2% 3%  
106 0.6% 1.4% Last Result
107 0.4% 0.9%  
108 0.3% 0.5%  
109 0.1% 0.2%  
110 0% 0.1%  
111 0% 0.1%  
112 0% 0%  

Technical Information

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