Opinion Poll by SKOP, 28 August–4 September 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti 31.0% 22.5% 21.5–23.6% 21.2–23.9% 20.9–24.1% 20.4–24.7%
Sverigedemokraterna 12.9% 20.0% 19.0–21.0% 18.7–21.3% 18.5–21.6% 18.0–22.1%
Moderata samlingspartiet 23.3% 17.1% 16.2–18.1% 15.9–18.4% 15.7–18.6% 15.3–19.1%
Vänsterpartiet 5.7% 11.0% 10.3–11.8% 10.0–12.1% 9.9–12.3% 9.5–12.7%
Centerpartiet 6.1% 8.1% 7.4–8.8% 7.3–9.0% 7.1–9.2% 6.8–9.6%
Kristdemokraterna 4.6% 7.0% 6.4–7.7% 6.2–7.9% 6.1–8.1% 5.8–8.4%
Miljöpartiet de gröna 6.9% 5.5% 5.0–6.1% 4.8–6.3% 4.7–6.5% 4.4–6.8%
Liberalerna 5.4% 5.4% 4.9–6.0% 4.7–6.2% 4.6–6.3% 4.3–6.6%
Feministiskt initiativ 3.1% 1.2% 1.0–1.5% 0.9–1.6% 0.8–1.7% 0.7–1.9%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti 113 81 77–85 76–87 75–87 73–89
Sverigedemokraterna 49 72 69–76 67–77 66–78 65–79
Moderata samlingspartiet 84 62 58–65 57–66 56–67 56–69
Vänsterpartiet 21 39 37–42 36–43 36–44 34–46
Centerpartiet 22 29 27–32 26–32 26–33 25–35
Kristdemokraterna 16 26 23–28 22–28 22–29 21–30
Miljöpartiet de gröna 25 20 18–22 17–23 17–24 16–24
Liberalerna 19 20 18–22 17–22 17–23 16–24
Feministiskt initiativ 0 0 0 0 0 0

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
72 0.1% 100%  
73 0.4% 99.9%  
74 0.6% 99.5%  
75 2% 98.8%  
76 3% 96%  
77 5% 94%  
78 7% 89%  
79 10% 82%  
80 16% 72%  
81 12% 57% Median
82 7% 45%  
83 11% 38%  
84 13% 27%  
85 6% 14%  
86 3% 8%  
87 3% 5%  
88 1.0% 2%  
89 0.4% 0.7%  
90 0.2% 0.3%  
91 0.1% 0.1%  
92 0% 0%  
93 0% 0%  
94 0% 0%  
95 0% 0%  
96 0% 0%  
97 0% 0%  
98 0% 0%  
99 0% 0%  
100 0% 0%  
101 0% 0%  
102 0% 0%  
103 0% 0%  
104 0% 0%  
105 0% 0%  
106 0% 0%  
107 0% 0%  
108 0% 0%  
109 0% 0%  
110 0% 0%  
111 0% 0%  
112 0% 0%  
113 0% 0% Last Result

Sverigedemokraterna

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sverigedemokraterna page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0% 100% Last Result
50 0% 100%  
51 0% 100%  
52 0% 100%  
53 0% 100%  
54 0% 100%  
55 0% 100%  
56 0% 100%  
57 0% 100%  
58 0% 100%  
59 0% 100%  
60 0% 100%  
61 0% 100%  
62 0% 100%  
63 0.1% 100%  
64 0.1% 99.8%  
65 0.6% 99.7%  
66 2% 99.1%  
67 3% 97%  
68 4% 95%  
69 10% 91%  
70 13% 81%  
71 15% 68%  
72 10% 54% Median
73 12% 44%  
74 15% 31%  
75 5% 16%  
76 5% 11%  
77 4% 6%  
78 1.0% 3%  
79 1.4% 2%  
80 0.2% 0.5%  
81 0.2% 0.2%  
82 0% 0.1%  
83 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Moderata samlingspartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0% 100%  
54 0.1% 99.9%  
55 0.3% 99.8%  
56 2% 99.5%  
57 3% 97%  
58 5% 94%  
59 8% 89%  
60 12% 81%  
61 15% 69%  
62 11% 54% Median
63 13% 43%  
64 7% 30%  
65 16% 22%  
66 3% 6%  
67 1.4% 3%  
68 1.2% 2%  
69 0.5% 0.6%  
70 0.1% 0.1%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0% Last Result

Vänsterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vänsterpartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0% 100% Last Result
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0% 100%  
28 0% 100%  
29 0% 100%  
30 0% 100%  
31 0% 100%  
32 0% 100%  
33 0.1% 100%  
34 0.4% 99.9%  
35 2% 99.5%  
36 5% 98%  
37 12% 92%  
38 13% 80%  
39 18% 67% Median
40 18% 49%  
41 13% 31%  
42 9% 18%  
43 4% 9%  
44 3% 5%  
45 2% 2%  
46 0.4% 0.6%  
47 0.1% 0.2%  
48 0.1% 0.1%  
49 0% 0%  

Centerpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Centerpartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0% 100% Last Result
23 0.1% 100%  
24 0.4% 99.9%  
25 2% 99.5%  
26 3% 98%  
27 8% 94%  
28 24% 87%  
29 21% 63% Median
30 17% 41%  
31 14% 25%  
32 6% 10%  
33 2% 4%  
34 1.4% 2%  
35 0.6% 0.7%  
36 0.1% 0.1%  
37 0% 0%  

Kristdemokraterna

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristdemokraterna page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0% 100% Last Result
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0.2% 100%  
21 0.8% 99.8%  
22 4% 99.0%  
23 7% 95%  
24 20% 87%  
25 18% 68%  
26 23% 50% Median
27 14% 27%  
28 9% 13%  
29 3% 4%  
30 2% 2%  
31 0.2% 0.3%  
32 0.1% 0.1%  
33 0% 0%  

Miljöpartiet de gröna

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljöpartiet de gröna page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.1% 100%  
16 1.5% 99.9%  
17 3% 98%  
18 12% 95%  
19 19% 83%  
20 28% 63% Median
21 15% 35%  
22 14% 20%  
23 4% 7%  
24 2% 3%  
25 0.3% 0.4% Last Result
26 0.1% 0.1%  
27 0% 0%  

Liberalerna

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberalerna page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.3% 100%  
16 2% 99.7%  
17 7% 98%  
18 20% 91%  
19 19% 70% Last Result
20 23% 51% Median
21 17% 28%  
22 7% 11%  
23 3% 4%  
24 0.7% 0.8%  
25 0.1% 0.1%  
26 0% 0%  

Feministiskt initiativ

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Feministiskt initiativ page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet 219 173 24% 168–176 166–177 165–179 163–182
Sverigedemokraterna – Moderata samlingspartiet – Kristdemokraterna 149 159 0% 155–164 154–165 152–166 150–168
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet 197 144 0% 138–148 137–148 136–149 134–152
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna – Feministiskt initiativ 159 141 0% 136–145 135–146 134–147 132–150
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna 159 141 0% 136–145 135–146 134–147 132–150
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna – Liberalerna 141 136 0% 132–141 131–142 130–142 127–145
Sverigedemokraterna – Moderata samlingspartiet 133 134 0% 129–139 128–139 127–141 125–142
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet 134 121 0% 117–125 115–126 114–127 113–130
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna 122 117 0% 112–121 111–122 110–123 108–125
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna 125 111 0% 107–115 105–116 104–117 103–119
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Miljöpartiet de gröna 138 101 0% 97–106 96–107 95–107 93–109
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet 106 91 0% 87–95 86–96 85–97 84–99

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
161 0.1% 100%  
162 0.2% 99.9%  
163 0.2% 99.7%  
164 1.0% 99.5%  
165 2% 98%  
166 4% 97%  
167 3% 93%  
168 2% 90%  
169 8% 88%  
170 7% 80%  
171 9% 72%  
172 5% 64% Median
173 16% 58%  
174 18% 42%  
175 8% 24% Majority
176 6% 16%  
177 5% 10%  
178 2% 5%  
179 2% 3%  
180 0.5% 1.5%  
181 0.4% 0.9%  
182 0.4% 0.6%  
183 0.2% 0.2%  
184 0% 0%  
185 0% 0%  
186 0% 0%  
187 0% 0%  
188 0% 0%  
189 0% 0%  
190 0% 0%  
191 0% 0%  
192 0% 0%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0% Last Result

Sverigedemokraterna – Moderata samlingspartiet – Kristdemokraterna

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
147 0% 100%  
148 0% 99.9%  
149 0.1% 99.9% Last Result
150 0.4% 99.8%  
151 2% 99.4%  
152 1.3% 98%  
153 1.2% 96%  
154 2% 95%  
155 5% 93%  
156 5% 88%  
157 12% 83%  
158 12% 71%  
159 9% 58%  
160 14% 49% Median
161 6% 35%  
162 12% 29%  
163 5% 17%  
164 6% 12%  
165 2% 6%  
166 1.4% 4%  
167 0.9% 2%  
168 0.9% 1.3%  
169 0.2% 0.4%  
170 0.1% 0.2%  
171 0% 0.1%  
172 0% 0%  

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
132 0.1% 100%  
133 0.2% 99.9%  
134 0.8% 99.7%  
135 0.6% 98.9%  
136 2% 98%  
137 3% 97%  
138 4% 94%  
139 7% 90%  
140 6% 82%  
141 6% 77%  
142 8% 70%  
143 9% 62% Median
144 15% 53%  
145 15% 38%  
146 6% 23%  
147 6% 17%  
148 6% 11%  
149 2% 4%  
150 1.2% 2%  
151 0.5% 1.2%  
152 0.2% 0.7%  
153 0.3% 0.5%  
154 0.1% 0.2%  
155 0.1% 0.1%  
156 0% 0%  
157 0% 0%  
158 0% 0%  
159 0% 0%  
160 0% 0%  
161 0% 0%  
162 0% 0%  
163 0% 0%  
164 0% 0%  
165 0% 0%  
166 0% 0%  
167 0% 0%  
168 0% 0%  
169 0% 0%  
170 0% 0%  
171 0% 0%  
172 0% 0%  
173 0% 0%  
174 0% 0%  
175 0% 0% Majority
176 0% 0%  
177 0% 0%  
178 0% 0%  
179 0% 0%  
180 0% 0%  
181 0% 0%  
182 0% 0%  
183 0% 0%  
184 0% 0%  
185 0% 0%  
186 0% 0%  
187 0% 0%  
188 0% 0%  
189 0% 0%  
190 0% 0%  
191 0% 0%  
192 0% 0%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0% Last Result

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna – Feministiskt initiativ

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
130 0.1% 100%  
131 0.2% 99.9%  
132 0.6% 99.7%  
133 0.6% 99.1%  
134 2% 98%  
135 2% 96%  
136 5% 94%  
137 6% 89%  
138 7% 83%  
139 5% 76%  
140 15% 71% Median
141 16% 55%  
142 9% 40%  
143 9% 31%  
144 11% 22%  
145 3% 11%  
146 4% 8%  
147 2% 5%  
148 1.0% 2%  
149 0.7% 1.5%  
150 0.4% 0.7%  
151 0.2% 0.4%  
152 0.1% 0.1%  
153 0% 0.1%  
154 0% 0%  
155 0% 0%  
156 0% 0%  
157 0% 0%  
158 0% 0%  
159 0% 0% Last Result

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
130 0.1% 100%  
131 0.2% 99.9%  
132 0.6% 99.7%  
133 0.6% 99.1%  
134 2% 98%  
135 2% 96%  
136 5% 94%  
137 6% 89%  
138 7% 83%  
139 5% 76%  
140 15% 71% Median
141 16% 55%  
142 9% 40%  
143 9% 31%  
144 11% 22%  
145 3% 11%  
146 4% 8%  
147 2% 5%  
148 1.0% 2%  
149 0.7% 1.5%  
150 0.4% 0.7%  
151 0.2% 0.4%  
152 0.1% 0.1%  
153 0% 0.1%  
154 0% 0%  
155 0% 0%  
156 0% 0%  
157 0% 0%  
158 0% 0%  
159 0% 0% Last Result

Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna – Liberalerna

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
125 0.1% 100%  
126 0.3% 99.9%  
127 0.3% 99.6%  
128 0.6% 99.3%  
129 1.0% 98.8%  
130 2% 98%  
131 4% 96%  
132 6% 92%  
133 5% 86%  
134 15% 81%  
135 10% 65%  
136 9% 55%  
137 9% 47% Median
138 16% 38%  
139 8% 22%  
140 4% 15%  
141 3% 11% Last Result
142 5% 7%  
143 1.2% 2%  
144 0.5% 1.0%  
145 0.3% 0.5%  
146 0.1% 0.2%  
147 0.1% 0.1%  
148 0% 0%  

Sverigedemokraterna – Moderata samlingspartiet

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
123 0.1% 100%  
124 0.1% 99.9%  
125 0.8% 99.8%  
126 0.6% 99.0%  
127 2% 98%  
128 2% 96%  
129 6% 94%  
130 5% 88%  
131 4% 83%  
132 14% 79%  
133 11% 65% Last Result
134 9% 54% Median
135 15% 45%  
136 8% 30%  
137 5% 22%  
138 5% 16%  
139 6% 11%  
140 1.4% 5%  
141 3% 3%  
142 0.3% 0.7%  
143 0.2% 0.5%  
144 0.1% 0.2%  
145 0.1% 0.1%  
146 0% 0%  

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
110 0.1% 100%  
111 0.2% 99.9%  
112 0.1% 99.7%  
113 0.6% 99.6%  
114 3% 99.0%  
115 2% 96%  
116 2% 94%  
117 9% 92%  
118 7% 83%  
119 8% 76%  
120 14% 68% Median
121 16% 54%  
122 7% 39%  
123 13% 32%  
124 8% 19%  
125 3% 11%  
126 4% 8%  
127 2% 4%  
128 1.2% 2%  
129 0.6% 1.2%  
130 0.4% 0.6%  
131 0.1% 0.2%  
132 0.1% 0.1%  
133 0% 0%  
134 0% 0% Last Result

Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
106 0.1% 100%  
107 0.3% 99.9%  
108 0.2% 99.5%  
109 0.5% 99.3%  
110 1.3% 98.8%  
111 5% 97%  
112 5% 93%  
113 3% 88%  
114 9% 85%  
115 12% 76%  
116 9% 64%  
117 11% 55% Median
118 20% 44%  
119 9% 24%  
120 3% 14%  
121 4% 11%  
122 4% 7% Last Result
123 2% 4%  
124 0.7% 1.2%  
125 0.3% 0.5%  
126 0.1% 0.2%  
127 0.1% 0.1%  
128 0% 0.1%  
129 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
100 0% 100%  
101 0.2% 99.9%  
102 0.2% 99.7%  
103 0.4% 99.5%  
104 2% 99.1%  
105 3% 97%  
106 1.1% 94%  
107 11% 93%  
108 11% 83%  
109 8% 71%  
110 11% 64%  
111 16% 53% Median
112 6% 36%  
113 4% 30%  
114 15% 26%  
115 3% 11%  
116 5% 8%  
117 2% 3%  
118 0.6% 1.2%  
119 0.1% 0.6%  
120 0.3% 0.5%  
121 0.1% 0.1%  
122 0% 0%  
123 0% 0%  
124 0% 0%  
125 0% 0% Last Result

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Miljöpartiet de gröna

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
91 0.1% 100%  
92 0.2% 99.9%  
93 0.7% 99.7%  
94 1.0% 99.0%  
95 2% 98%  
96 4% 96%  
97 3% 92%  
98 7% 89%  
99 12% 82%  
100 11% 70%  
101 13% 59% Median
102 12% 46%  
103 7% 34%  
104 8% 27%  
105 6% 19%  
106 8% 13%  
107 3% 5%  
108 2% 2%  
109 0.4% 0.9%  
110 0.4% 0.5%  
111 0.1% 0.1%  
112 0% 0%  
113 0% 0%  
114 0% 0%  
115 0% 0%  
116 0% 0%  
117 0% 0%  
118 0% 0%  
119 0% 0%  
120 0% 0%  
121 0% 0%  
122 0% 0%  
123 0% 0%  
124 0% 0%  
125 0% 0%  
126 0% 0%  
127 0% 0%  
128 0% 0%  
129 0% 0%  
130 0% 0%  
131 0% 0%  
132 0% 0%  
133 0% 0%  
134 0% 0%  
135 0% 0%  
136 0% 0%  
137 0% 0%  
138 0% 0% Last Result

Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
81 0% 100%  
82 0.1% 99.9%  
83 0.3% 99.8%  
84 1.4% 99.6%  
85 2% 98%  
86 4% 96%  
87 3% 92%  
88 4% 89%  
89 14% 85%  
90 11% 71%  
91 12% 59% Median
92 13% 48%  
93 14% 34%  
94 7% 20%  
95 7% 13%  
96 3% 6%  
97 1.5% 3%  
98 1.0% 2%  
99 0.3% 0.6%  
100 0.2% 0.3%  
101 0.1% 0.1%  
102 0% 0.1%  
103 0% 0%  
104 0% 0%  
105 0% 0%  
106 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations