Opinion Poll by Sifo for Svenska Dagbladet, 30 August–4 September 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti 31.0% 24.9% 23.9–26.0% 23.6–26.3% 23.4–26.5% 22.9–27.1%
Moderata samlingspartiet 23.3% 17.1% 16.3–18.1% 16.0–18.3% 15.8–18.6% 15.4–19.0%
Sverigedemokraterna 12.9% 17.0% 16.2–18.0% 15.9–18.2% 15.7–18.5% 15.3–18.9%
Vänsterpartiet 5.7% 10.2% 9.5–10.9% 9.3–11.1% 9.1–11.3% 8.8–11.7%
Centerpartiet 6.1% 9.3% 8.6–10.0% 8.4–10.2% 8.3–10.4% 7.9–10.7%
Liberalerna 5.4% 6.8% 6.2–7.4% 6.1–7.6% 5.9–7.8% 5.7–8.1%
Kristdemokraterna 4.6% 6.6% 6.0–7.2% 5.9–7.4% 5.7–7.5% 5.5–7.8%
Miljöpartiet de gröna 6.9% 5.4% 4.9–6.0% 4.7–6.1% 4.6–6.3% 4.4–6.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti 113 89 86–93 84–94 84–95 82–97
Moderata samlingspartiet 84 61 58–64 57–66 57–66 55–68
Sverigedemokraterna 49 61 58–65 57–65 56–66 55–67
Vänsterpartiet 21 36 34–39 33–40 33–41 31–42
Centerpartiet 22 33 31–36 30–37 30–37 29–38
Liberalerna 19 24 22–26 22–28 21–28 20–28
Kristdemokraterna 16 24 22–26 21–27 20–27 20–28
Miljöpartiet de gröna 25 19 17–21 17–22 17–22 16–24

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
80 0.1% 100%  
81 0.2% 99.9%  
82 0.6% 99.7%  
83 1.5% 99.2%  
84 3% 98%  
85 4% 95%  
86 8% 91%  
87 12% 82%  
88 10% 71%  
89 14% 60% Median
90 13% 47%  
91 9% 34%  
92 10% 24%  
93 6% 14%  
94 3% 8%  
95 3% 5%  
96 1.0% 2%  
97 0.5% 0.8%  
98 0.1% 0.3%  
99 0.1% 0.1%  
100 0% 0%  
101 0% 0%  
102 0% 0%  
103 0% 0%  
104 0% 0%  
105 0% 0%  
106 0% 0%  
107 0% 0%  
108 0% 0%  
109 0% 0%  
110 0% 0%  
111 0% 0%  
112 0% 0%  
113 0% 0% Last Result

Moderata samlingspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Moderata samlingspartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0.2% 100%  
55 0.6% 99.7%  
56 2% 99.1%  
57 3% 98%  
58 5% 95%  
59 9% 89%  
60 12% 80%  
61 25% 68% Median
62 11% 42%  
63 9% 31%  
64 12% 22%  
65 3% 10%  
66 5% 7%  
67 2% 2%  
68 0.4% 0.8%  
69 0.3% 0.4%  
70 0% 0.1%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0% Last Result

Sverigedemokraterna

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sverigedemokraterna page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0% 100% Last Result
50 0% 100%  
51 0% 100%  
52 0% 100%  
53 0.1% 100%  
54 0.2% 99.9%  
55 0.8% 99.7%  
56 1.5% 98.9%  
57 4% 97%  
58 9% 93%  
59 16% 84%  
60 14% 68%  
61 13% 54% Median
62 11% 42%  
63 7% 31%  
64 11% 24%  
65 9% 13%  
66 3% 4%  
67 0.8% 1.2%  
68 0.3% 0.4%  
69 0.1% 0.1%  
70 0% 0.1%  
71 0% 0%  

Vänsterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vänsterpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0% 100% Last Result
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0% 100%  
28 0% 100%  
29 0% 100%  
30 0.1% 100%  
31 0.4% 99.9%  
32 2% 99.5%  
33 5% 98%  
34 10% 93%  
35 16% 84%  
36 20% 67% Median
37 17% 48%  
38 16% 31%  
39 8% 15%  
40 4% 7%  
41 2% 3%  
42 0.5% 0.7%  
43 0.2% 0.2%  
44 0% 0%  

Centerpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Centerpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0% 100% Last Result
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0.1% 100%  
28 0.4% 99.9%  
29 2% 99.6%  
30 6% 98%  
31 10% 92%  
32 16% 82%  
33 22% 66% Median
34 22% 44%  
35 11% 23%  
36 6% 11%  
37 4% 5%  
38 1.1% 2%  
39 0.3% 0.4%  
40 0.1% 0.1%  
41 0% 0%  

Liberalerna

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberalerna page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.1% 100% Last Result
20 1.1% 99.9%  
21 2% 98.9%  
22 11% 97%  
23 9% 86%  
24 39% 77% Median
25 12% 39%  
26 17% 26%  
27 4% 9%  
28 5% 6%  
29 0.2% 0.5%  
30 0.2% 0.2%  
31 0% 0%  

Kristdemokraterna

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristdemokraterna page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0% 100% Last Result
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0.3% 100%  
20 3% 99.6%  
21 6% 97%  
22 16% 90%  
23 21% 74%  
24 23% 53% Median
25 19% 30%  
26 6% 11%  
27 4% 5%  
28 0.8% 1.1%  
29 0.3% 0.3%  
30 0% 0%  

Miljöpartiet de gröna

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljöpartiet de gröna page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.2% 100%  
16 2% 99.7%  
17 9% 98%  
18 16% 88%  
19 24% 72% Median
20 23% 49%  
21 16% 26%  
22 7% 9%  
23 2% 2%  
24 0.5% 0.5%  
25 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
26 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet 219 184 99.8% 180–188 179–190 178–191 176–193
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet 197 151 0% 147–155 146–156 144–157 142–159
Moderata samlingspartiet – Sverigedemokraterna – Kristdemokraterna 149 146 0% 142–150 141–151 140–153 138–154
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna 159 145 0% 141–149 140–151 139–152 137–154
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna – Kristdemokraterna 141 142 0% 138–147 137–148 137–149 134–151
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet 134 125 0% 122–130 121–132 120–132 118–134
Moderata samlingspartiet – Sverigedemokraterna 133 122 0% 118–127 117–128 116–129 115–131
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna 125 119 0% 115–123 114–125 113–125 111–127
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna 122 118 0% 114–122 113–123 112–125 111–127
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Miljöpartiet de gröna 138 109 0% 105–113 104–114 103–115 101–117
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet 106 94 0% 91–98 90–99 89–100 88–102

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
173 0.1% 100%  
174 0.1% 99.9%  
175 0.3% 99.8% Majority
176 0.9% 99.5%  
177 1.1% 98.6%  
178 2% 98%  
179 4% 96%  
180 9% 91%  
181 7% 83%  
182 8% 76%  
183 11% 68% Median
184 13% 57%  
185 11% 43%  
186 11% 33%  
187 7% 22%  
188 5% 14%  
189 4% 9%  
190 3% 5%  
191 2% 3%  
192 0.4% 1.1%  
193 0.4% 0.6%  
194 0.2% 0.3%  
195 0% 0.1%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0% Last Result

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
140 0.1% 100%  
141 0.2% 99.9%  
142 0.3% 99.7%  
143 1.1% 99.4%  
144 1.2% 98%  
145 2% 97%  
146 4% 95%  
147 6% 91%  
148 13% 85%  
149 6% 73%  
150 14% 66% Median
151 15% 53%  
152 8% 37%  
153 9% 29%  
154 5% 20%  
155 6% 14%  
156 4% 8%  
157 2% 4%  
158 0.9% 2%  
159 0.5% 0.9%  
160 0.3% 0.4%  
161 0.1% 0.1%  
162 0% 0.1%  
163 0% 0%  
164 0% 0%  
165 0% 0%  
166 0% 0%  
167 0% 0%  
168 0% 0%  
169 0% 0%  
170 0% 0%  
171 0% 0%  
172 0% 0%  
173 0% 0%  
174 0% 0%  
175 0% 0% Majority
176 0% 0%  
177 0% 0%  
178 0% 0%  
179 0% 0%  
180 0% 0%  
181 0% 0%  
182 0% 0%  
183 0% 0%  
184 0% 0%  
185 0% 0%  
186 0% 0%  
187 0% 0%  
188 0% 0%  
189 0% 0%  
190 0% 0%  
191 0% 0%  
192 0% 0%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0% Last Result

Moderata samlingspartiet – Sverigedemokraterna – Kristdemokraterna

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
135 0% 100%  
136 0.1% 99.9%  
137 0.2% 99.9%  
138 0.3% 99.6%  
139 1.1% 99.3%  
140 3% 98%  
141 4% 95%  
142 6% 91%  
143 8% 85%  
144 8% 77%  
145 11% 68%  
146 10% 58% Median
147 10% 47%  
148 11% 37%  
149 9% 26% Last Result
150 9% 18%  
151 4% 9%  
152 2% 5%  
153 2% 3%  
154 0.6% 1.1%  
155 0.2% 0.4%  
156 0.2% 0.2%  
157 0% 0.1%  
158 0% 0%  

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
134 0% 100%  
135 0.1% 99.9%  
136 0.2% 99.9%  
137 0.6% 99.7%  
138 0.9% 99.1%  
139 2% 98%  
140 3% 96%  
141 4% 93%  
142 9% 89%  
143 12% 79%  
144 14% 68% Median
145 6% 54%  
146 9% 47%  
147 14% 38%  
148 8% 24%  
149 7% 16%  
150 3% 9%  
151 2% 6%  
152 2% 4%  
153 1.1% 2%  
154 0.4% 0.6%  
155 0.1% 0.3%  
156 0.1% 0.1%  
157 0% 0%  
158 0% 0%  
159 0% 0% Last Result

Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna – Kristdemokraterna

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
132 0.1% 100%  
133 0.2% 99.9%  
134 0.4% 99.7%  
135 0.2% 99.3%  
136 2% 99.1%  
137 4% 98%  
138 5% 93%  
139 3% 88%  
140 4% 86%  
141 22% 81% Last Result
142 13% 59% Median
143 7% 46%  
144 4% 39%  
145 15% 35%  
146 9% 20%  
147 6% 11%  
148 2% 5%  
149 2% 4%  
150 1.4% 2%  
151 0.4% 0.8%  
152 0.2% 0.3%  
153 0.1% 0.1%  
154 0.1% 0.1%  
155 0% 0%  

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
115 0% 100%  
116 0.1% 99.9%  
117 0.2% 99.9%  
118 0.8% 99.7%  
119 1.3% 98.9%  
120 1.3% 98%  
121 4% 96%  
122 11% 92%  
123 5% 81%  
124 14% 76%  
125 14% 62% Median
126 8% 49%  
127 9% 41%  
128 10% 31%  
129 8% 21%  
130 6% 14%  
131 2% 7%  
132 3% 6%  
133 2% 2%  
134 0.3% 0.6% Last Result
135 0.1% 0.3%  
136 0.2% 0.2%  
137 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet – Sverigedemokraterna

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
112 0.1% 100%  
113 0.1% 99.9%  
114 0.2% 99.8%  
115 0.5% 99.6%  
116 2% 99.1%  
117 3% 97%  
118 6% 94%  
119 9% 89%  
120 7% 79%  
121 11% 72%  
122 13% 62% Median
123 9% 49%  
124 9% 40%  
125 11% 31%  
126 10% 21%  
127 4% 11%  
128 4% 6%  
129 1.4% 3%  
130 0.8% 1.3%  
131 0.3% 0.5%  
132 0.1% 0.2%  
133 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
134 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
109 0% 100%  
110 0.2% 99.9%  
111 0.4% 99.8%  
112 0.9% 99.3%  
113 2% 98%  
114 3% 96%  
115 6% 93%  
116 9% 87%  
117 11% 78%  
118 13% 67% Median
119 10% 54%  
120 13% 45%  
121 9% 32%  
122 10% 24%  
123 6% 14%  
124 3% 8%  
125 3% 5% Last Result
126 1.0% 2%  
127 0.6% 1.0%  
128 0.2% 0.4%  
129 0.1% 0.2%  
130 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
108 0.1% 100%  
109 0.1% 99.9%  
110 0.2% 99.8%  
111 1.4% 99.6%  
112 2% 98%  
113 2% 96%  
114 5% 94%  
115 7% 90%  
116 7% 82%  
117 19% 76%  
118 15% 56% Median
119 7% 42%  
120 7% 34%  
121 13% 28%  
122 7% 15% Last Result
123 3% 8%  
124 2% 5%  
125 1.4% 3%  
126 0.6% 1.1%  
127 0.2% 0.5%  
128 0.2% 0.3%  
129 0% 0%  

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Miljöpartiet de gröna

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
98 0% 100%  
99 0.1% 99.9%  
100 0.2% 99.9%  
101 0.5% 99.7%  
102 2% 99.2%  
103 2% 98%  
104 4% 96%  
105 6% 92%  
106 12% 86%  
107 8% 74%  
108 13% 66% Median
109 12% 53%  
110 12% 41%  
111 9% 29%  
112 8% 20%  
113 5% 12%  
114 3% 6%  
115 2% 4%  
116 0.7% 1.3%  
117 0.3% 0.6%  
118 0.3% 0.4%  
119 0.1% 0.1%  
120 0% 0%  
121 0% 0%  
122 0% 0%  
123 0% 0%  
124 0% 0%  
125 0% 0%  
126 0% 0%  
127 0% 0%  
128 0% 0%  
129 0% 0%  
130 0% 0%  
131 0% 0%  
132 0% 0%  
133 0% 0%  
134 0% 0%  
135 0% 0%  
136 0% 0%  
137 0% 0%  
138 0% 0% Last Result

Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
85 0% 100%  
86 0.1% 99.9%  
87 0.3% 99.8%  
88 1.3% 99.5%  
89 2% 98%  
90 4% 96%  
91 4% 92%  
92 9% 88%  
93 15% 79%  
94 17% 64% Median
95 10% 47%  
96 9% 37%  
97 10% 28%  
98 8% 18%  
99 5% 10%  
100 2% 4%  
101 1.3% 2%  
102 0.8% 1.2%  
103 0.3% 0.4%  
104 0.1% 0.2%  
105 0% 0%  
106 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations