Opinion Poll by Sifo for Svenska Dagbladet, 3–5 September 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti 31.0% 25.1% 24.1–26.1% 23.9–26.4% 23.6–26.6% 23.2–27.1%
Moderata samlingspartiet 23.3% 17.2% 16.4–18.1% 16.2–18.3% 16.0–18.5% 15.6–18.9%
Sverigedemokraterna 12.9% 16.9% 16.1–17.8% 15.9–18.0% 15.7–18.2% 15.3–18.6%
Vänsterpartiet 5.7% 10.1% 9.5–10.8% 9.3–11.0% 9.1–11.2% 8.8–11.5%
Centerpartiet 6.1% 10.0% 9.3–10.7% 9.2–10.9% 9.0–11.1% 8.7–11.4%
Miljöpartiet de gröna 6.9% 6.2% 5.7–6.8% 5.6–7.0% 5.4–7.1% 5.2–7.4%
Liberalerna 5.4% 6.0% 5.5–6.6% 5.4–6.7% 5.2–6.9% 5.0–7.1%
Kristdemokraterna 4.6% 5.9% 5.4–6.4% 5.3–6.6% 5.1–6.7% 4.9–7.0%
Feministiskt initiativ 3.1% 1.0% 0.8–1.3% 0.8–1.4% 0.7–1.4% 0.6–1.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti 113 90 86–93 86–94 85–96 83–97
Moderata samlingspartiet 84 62 58–65 57–65 57–66 56–67
Sverigedemokraterna 49 61 57–63 57–64 56–66 55–67
Vänsterpartiet 21 36 34–39 33–40 32–40 32–41
Centerpartiet 22 36 33–38 33–39 32–40 31–41
Miljöpartiet de gröna 25 22 21–24 20–25 20–25 19–26
Liberalerna 19 21 20–23 19–24 19–25 18–26
Kristdemokraterna 16 21 19–23 19–23 18–24 17–25
Feministiskt initiativ 0 0 0 0 0 0

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
81 0.1% 100%  
82 0.1% 99.9%  
83 0.9% 99.8%  
84 1.1% 98.9%  
85 3% 98%  
86 9% 95%  
87 8% 86%  
88 10% 79%  
89 10% 69%  
90 12% 59% Median
91 24% 47%  
92 11% 22%  
93 3% 12%  
94 5% 9%  
95 1.0% 4%  
96 2% 3%  
97 0.5% 0.7%  
98 0.1% 0.2%  
99 0.1% 0.1%  
100 0% 0%  
101 0% 0%  
102 0% 0%  
103 0% 0%  
104 0% 0%  
105 0% 0%  
106 0% 0%  
107 0% 0%  
108 0% 0%  
109 0% 0%  
110 0% 0%  
111 0% 0%  
112 0% 0%  
113 0% 0% Last Result

Moderata samlingspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Moderata samlingspartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0.1% 100%  
55 0.2% 99.9%  
56 1.0% 99.7%  
57 5% 98.7%  
58 4% 93%  
59 8% 89%  
60 9% 82%  
61 18% 73%  
62 14% 55% Median
63 12% 41%  
64 18% 29%  
65 7% 11%  
66 2% 3%  
67 0.7% 1.2%  
68 0.3% 0.5%  
69 0.2% 0.2%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0% Last Result

Sverigedemokraterna

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sverigedemokraterna page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0% 100% Last Result
50 0% 100%  
51 0% 100%  
52 0% 100%  
53 0.1% 100%  
54 0.2% 99.9%  
55 0.8% 99.6%  
56 2% 98.8%  
57 8% 97%  
58 8% 89%  
59 11% 81%  
60 19% 70%  
61 9% 51% Median
62 22% 42%  
63 10% 19%  
64 5% 9%  
65 1.3% 4%  
66 2% 3%  
67 0.5% 0.7%  
68 0.1% 0.1%  
69 0% 0%  

Vänsterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vänsterpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0% 100% Last Result
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0% 100%  
28 0% 100%  
29 0% 100%  
30 0% 100%  
31 0.4% 99.9%  
32 2% 99.6%  
33 4% 97%  
34 11% 93%  
35 20% 82%  
36 15% 62% Median
37 21% 47%  
38 15% 26%  
39 6% 12%  
40 4% 6%  
41 1.0% 1.2%  
42 0.1% 0.2%  
43 0.1% 0.1%  
44 0% 0%  

Centerpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Centerpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0% 100% Last Result
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0% 100%  
28 0% 100%  
29 0% 100%  
30 0.1% 100%  
31 0.7% 99.9%  
32 2% 99.2%  
33 9% 97%  
34 19% 89%  
35 17% 70%  
36 10% 53% Median
37 26% 42%  
38 9% 16%  
39 3% 7%  
40 2% 3%  
41 0.9% 1.0%  
42 0.1% 0.1%  
43 0% 0%  

Miljöpartiet de gröna

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljöpartiet de gröna page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.4% 100%  
19 2% 99.6%  
20 6% 98%  
21 24% 92%  
22 29% 67% Median
23 20% 38%  
24 12% 18%  
25 3% 6% Last Result
26 2% 2%  
27 0.4% 0.4%  
28 0% 0%  

Liberalerna

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberalerna page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0.1% 100%  
18 2% 99.9%  
19 4% 98% Last Result
20 16% 94%  
21 29% 77% Median
22 27% 48%  
23 14% 21%  
24 3% 7%  
25 3% 3%  
26 0.5% 0.5%  
27 0.1% 0.1%  
28 0% 0%  

Kristdemokraterna

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristdemokraterna page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0% 100% Last Result
17 0.5% 100%  
18 2% 99.5%  
19 12% 97%  
20 24% 85%  
21 23% 61% Median
22 20% 38%  
23 13% 18%  
24 4% 5%  
25 1.0% 1.2%  
26 0.2% 0.2%  
27 0% 0%  

Feministiskt initiativ

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Feministiskt initiativ page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet 219 187 100% 183–192 182–192 181–193 179–195
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet 197 152 0% 147–155 146–156 144–157 144–159
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna – Feministiskt initiativ 159 149 0% 145–152 144–153 143–154 141–156
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna 159 149 0% 145–152 144–153 143–154 141–156
Moderata samlingspartiet – Sverigedemokraterna – Kristdemokraterna 149 143 0% 140–147 138–148 137–150 136–151
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna – Kristdemokraterna 141 140 0% 137–144 136–145 135–145 132–147
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet 134 126 0% 122–129 122–131 120–132 119–133
Moderata samlingspartiet – Sverigedemokraterna 133 123 0% 119–126 118–127 117–128 115–130
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna 122 118 0% 115–123 114–124 114–124 111–125
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna 125 119 0% 115–122 114–124 113–124 111–126
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Miljöpartiet de gröna 138 112 0% 108–115 108–117 107–118 105–120
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet 106 97 0% 94–101 93–102 92–102 90–104

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
177 0.1% 100%  
178 0.1% 99.9%  
179 0.5% 99.8%  
180 0.9% 99.3%  
181 3% 98%  
182 4% 96%  
183 3% 92%  
184 5% 88%  
185 8% 83%  
186 9% 75%  
187 21% 65%  
188 14% 44% Median
189 7% 30%  
190 6% 23%  
191 2% 17%  
192 12% 15%  
193 2% 4%  
194 0.9% 2%  
195 0.6% 0.9%  
196 0.1% 0.3%  
197 0.1% 0.1%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0% Last Result

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
142 0.1% 100%  
143 0.2% 99.9%  
144 2% 99.7%  
145 1.2% 97%  
146 4% 96%  
147 6% 92%  
148 4% 86%  
149 5% 82%  
150 10% 77%  
151 12% 67%  
152 14% 56% Median
153 11% 42%  
154 14% 32%  
155 11% 17%  
156 3% 7%  
157 2% 4%  
158 0.6% 1.4%  
159 0.5% 0.8%  
160 0.2% 0.3%  
161 0% 0.1%  
162 0% 0%  
163 0% 0%  
164 0% 0%  
165 0% 0%  
166 0% 0%  
167 0% 0%  
168 0% 0%  
169 0% 0%  
170 0% 0%  
171 0% 0%  
172 0% 0%  
173 0% 0%  
174 0% 0%  
175 0% 0% Majority
176 0% 0%  
177 0% 0%  
178 0% 0%  
179 0% 0%  
180 0% 0%  
181 0% 0%  
182 0% 0%  
183 0% 0%  
184 0% 0%  
185 0% 0%  
186 0% 0%  
187 0% 0%  
188 0% 0%  
189 0% 0%  
190 0% 0%  
191 0% 0%  
192 0% 0%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0% Last Result

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna – Feministiskt initiativ

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
139 0.1% 100%  
140 0.3% 99.8%  
141 0.6% 99.6%  
142 0.8% 99.0%  
143 3% 98%  
144 4% 95%  
145 9% 91%  
146 10% 82%  
147 11% 72%  
148 10% 60% Median
149 15% 50%  
150 18% 36%  
151 5% 18%  
152 6% 13%  
153 3% 7%  
154 2% 4%  
155 0.7% 2%  
156 1.1% 1.5%  
157 0.3% 0.4%  
158 0.1% 0.1%  
159 0% 0% Last Result

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
139 0.1% 100%  
140 0.3% 99.8%  
141 0.6% 99.6%  
142 0.8% 99.0%  
143 3% 98%  
144 4% 95%  
145 9% 91%  
146 10% 82%  
147 11% 72%  
148 10% 60% Median
149 15% 50%  
150 18% 36%  
151 5% 18%  
152 6% 13%  
153 3% 7%  
154 2% 4%  
155 0.7% 2%  
156 1.1% 1.5%  
157 0.3% 0.4%  
158 0.1% 0.1%  
159 0% 0% Last Result

Moderata samlingspartiet – Sverigedemokraterna – Kristdemokraterna

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
134 0.1% 100%  
135 0.3% 99.9%  
136 0.7% 99.6%  
137 1.5% 99.0%  
138 3% 97%  
139 3% 95%  
140 7% 91%  
141 6% 84%  
142 11% 78%  
143 21% 67%  
144 15% 46% Median
145 8% 32%  
146 8% 24%  
147 6% 15%  
148 5% 10%  
149 1.3% 4% Last Result
150 2% 3%  
151 0.4% 0.7%  
152 0.2% 0.3%  
153 0.1% 0.1%  
154 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna – Kristdemokraterna

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
130 0.1% 100%  
131 0.1% 99.9%  
132 0.5% 99.9%  
133 0.4% 99.4%  
134 1.0% 99.0%  
135 2% 98%  
136 3% 95%  
137 17% 92%  
138 9% 75%  
139 12% 66%  
140 12% 54% Median
141 9% 42% Last Result
142 10% 33%  
143 5% 22%  
144 8% 17%  
145 6% 9%  
146 1.0% 2%  
147 1.0% 1.5%  
148 0.2% 0.4%  
149 0.2% 0.3%  
150 0.1% 0.1%  
151 0% 0%  

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
116 0.1% 100%  
117 0.1% 99.9%  
118 0.2% 99.8%  
119 0.8% 99.7%  
120 2% 98.9%  
121 2% 97%  
122 7% 95%  
123 11% 89%  
124 5% 78%  
125 14% 72%  
126 12% 58% Median
127 14% 46%  
128 9% 32%  
129 12% 22%  
130 5% 10%  
131 2% 5%  
132 2% 3%  
133 1.0% 1.5%  
134 0.1% 0.5% Last Result
135 0.3% 0.3%  
136 0% 0.1%  
137 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet – Sverigedemokraterna

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
112 0.1% 100%  
113 0.1% 99.9%  
114 0.2% 99.9%  
115 0.6% 99.6%  
116 2% 99.0%  
117 2% 98%  
118 2% 96%  
119 13% 94%  
120 7% 82%  
121 10% 74%  
122 6% 65%  
123 25% 59% Median
124 19% 34%  
125 3% 15%  
126 3% 12%  
127 6% 9%  
128 3% 4%  
129 0.3% 1.0%  
130 0.4% 0.7%  
131 0.3% 0.3%  
132 0% 0.1%  
133 0% 0% Last Result

Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
109 0.1% 100%  
110 0.1% 99.9%  
111 0.3% 99.7%  
112 0.6% 99.4%  
113 1.1% 98.8%  
114 3% 98%  
115 7% 95%  
116 22% 88%  
117 11% 66%  
118 8% 55%  
119 9% 47% Median
120 11% 38%  
121 6% 27%  
122 6% 21% Last Result
123 8% 15%  
124 6% 7%  
125 0.8% 1.2%  
126 0.2% 0.5%  
127 0.1% 0.3%  
128 0.1% 0.1%  
129 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
110 0.1% 100%  
111 0.4% 99.9%  
112 0.9% 99.4%  
113 2% 98.5%  
114 3% 97%  
115 4% 94%  
116 7% 90%  
117 14% 83%  
118 13% 68%  
119 15% 56% Median
120 7% 40%  
121 11% 34%  
122 13% 22%  
123 3% 9%  
124 4% 6%  
125 0.8% 2% Last Result
126 0.9% 1.3%  
127 0.3% 0.5%  
128 0.1% 0.2%  
129 0.1% 0.1%  
130 0% 0%  

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Miljöpartiet de gröna

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
102 0.1% 100%  
103 0.1% 99.9%  
104 0.2% 99.8%  
105 0.5% 99.7%  
106 0.9% 99.1%  
107 2% 98%  
108 7% 97%  
109 8% 89%  
110 11% 81%  
111 11% 70%  
112 15% 58% Median
113 14% 43%  
114 14% 30%  
115 7% 16%  
116 4% 9%  
117 2% 5%  
118 1.4% 3%  
119 0.9% 2%  
120 0.4% 0.7%  
121 0.3% 0.3%  
122 0% 0.1%  
123 0% 0%  
124 0% 0%  
125 0% 0%  
126 0% 0%  
127 0% 0%  
128 0% 0%  
129 0% 0%  
130 0% 0%  
131 0% 0%  
132 0% 0%  
133 0% 0%  
134 0% 0%  
135 0% 0%  
136 0% 0%  
137 0% 0%  
138 0% 0% Last Result

Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
89 0.2% 100%  
90 0.5% 99.8%  
91 1.1% 99.3%  
92 0.8% 98%  
93 4% 97%  
94 9% 94%  
95 8% 85%  
96 21% 77%  
97 10% 56%  
98 11% 46% Median
99 7% 35%  
100 6% 28%  
101 13% 23%  
102 7% 9%  
103 2% 2%  
104 0.4% 0.8%  
105 0.2% 0.4%  
106 0.1% 0.2% Last Result
107 0.1% 0.1%  
108 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations