Opinion Poll by Novus for SVT, 4–6 September 2018
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti | 31.0% | 24.9% | 23.6–26.2% | 23.3–26.6% | 23.0–26.9% | 22.4–27.6% |
| Sverigedemokraterna | 12.9% | 19.1% | 18.0–20.3% | 17.6–20.7% | 17.4–21.0% | 16.8–21.6% |
| Moderata samlingspartiet | 23.3% | 17.7% | 16.6–18.9% | 16.3–19.2% | 16.0–19.5% | 15.5–20.1% |
| Vänsterpartiet | 5.7% | 10.0% | 9.2–11.0% | 8.9–11.2% | 8.7–11.5% | 8.3–11.9% |
| Centerpartiet | 6.1% | 8.6% | 7.8–9.5% | 7.6–9.8% | 7.4–10.0% | 7.0–10.4% |
| Liberalerna | 5.4% | 6.5% | 5.8–7.3% | 5.6–7.5% | 5.5–7.7% | 5.2–8.1% |
| Kristdemokraterna | 4.6% | 5.7% | 5.0–6.4% | 4.9–6.7% | 4.7–6.8% | 4.4–7.2% |
| Miljöpartiet de gröna | 6.9% | 5.0% | 4.4–5.7% | 4.2–5.9% | 4.1–6.1% | 3.8–6.4% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti | 113 | 90 | 85–94 | 84–95 | 82–96 | 80–99 |
| Sverigedemokraterna | 49 | 68 | 65–72 | 63–74 | 62–75 | 60–77 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet | 84 | 63 | 60–68 | 58–68 | 57–69 | 55–72 |
| Vänsterpartiet | 21 | 36 | 33–39 | 32–40 | 31–41 | 30–43 |
| Centerpartiet | 22 | 30 | 28–34 | 27–35 | 26–36 | 25–37 |
| Liberalerna | 19 | 23 | 21–26 | 20–27 | 19–28 | 18–29 |
| Kristdemokraterna | 16 | 21 | 18–23 | 17–24 | 17–24 | 16–26 |
| Miljöpartiet de gröna | 25 | 18 | 16–20 | 15–21 | 15–22 | 0–23 |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 78 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 79 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 80 | 0.7% | 99.8% | |
| 81 | 0.8% | 99.1% | |
| 82 | 1.5% | 98% | |
| 83 | 1.1% | 97% | |
| 84 | 4% | 96% | |
| 85 | 5% | 91% | |
| 86 | 10% | 86% | |
| 87 | 9% | 76% | |
| 88 | 8% | 68% | |
| 89 | 10% | 60% | |
| 90 | 19% | 50% | Median |
| 91 | 14% | 31% | |
| 92 | 3% | 17% | |
| 93 | 3% | 14% | |
| 94 | 5% | 11% | |
| 95 | 4% | 7% | |
| 96 | 1.2% | 3% | |
| 97 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 98 | 0.2% | 1.2% | |
| 99 | 0.7% | 1.0% | |
| 100 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 101 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 102 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 103 | 0% | 0% | |
| 104 | 0% | 0% | |
| 105 | 0% | 0% | |
| 106 | 0% | 0% | |
| 107 | 0% | 0% | |
| 108 | 0% | 0% | |
| 109 | 0% | 0% | |
| 110 | 0% | 0% | |
| 111 | 0% | 0% | |
| 112 | 0% | 0% | |
| 113 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Sverigedemokraterna
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sverigedemokraterna page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 49 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 50 | 0% | 100% | |
| 51 | 0% | 100% | |
| 52 | 0% | 100% | |
| 53 | 0% | 100% | |
| 54 | 0% | 100% | |
| 55 | 0% | 100% | |
| 56 | 0% | 100% | |
| 57 | 0% | 100% | |
| 58 | 0% | 100% | |
| 59 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 60 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 61 | 1.2% | 99.4% | |
| 62 | 3% | 98% | |
| 63 | 3% | 95% | |
| 64 | 3% | 93% | |
| 65 | 9% | 90% | |
| 66 | 14% | 81% | |
| 67 | 11% | 67% | |
| 68 | 9% | 56% | Median |
| 69 | 6% | 47% | |
| 70 | 11% | 41% | |
| 71 | 18% | 30% | |
| 72 | 5% | 12% | |
| 73 | 2% | 7% | |
| 74 | 2% | 5% | |
| 75 | 1.2% | 3% | |
| 76 | 2% | 2% | |
| 77 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 78 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 79 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 80 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 81 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Moderata samlingspartiet page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 53 | 0% | 100% | |
| 54 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 55 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 56 | 0.9% | 99.5% | |
| 57 | 2% | 98.6% | |
| 58 | 3% | 97% | |
| 59 | 4% | 94% | |
| 60 | 7% | 90% | |
| 61 | 10% | 83% | |
| 62 | 14% | 73% | |
| 63 | 19% | 59% | Median |
| 64 | 10% | 40% | |
| 65 | 6% | 31% | |
| 66 | 8% | 25% | |
| 67 | 7% | 17% | |
| 68 | 5% | 10% | |
| 69 | 2% | 5% | |
| 70 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 71 | 0.4% | 1.1% | |
| 72 | 0.3% | 0.7% | |
| 73 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 74 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 75 | 0% | 0% | |
| 76 | 0% | 0% | |
| 77 | 0% | 0% | |
| 78 | 0% | 0% | |
| 79 | 0% | 0% | |
| 80 | 0% | 0% | |
| 81 | 0% | 0% | |
| 82 | 0% | 0% | |
| 83 | 0% | 0% | |
| 84 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Vänsterpartiet
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vänsterpartiet page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 22 | 0% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0% | 100% | |
| 26 | 0% | 100% | |
| 27 | 0% | 100% | |
| 28 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 29 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 30 | 0.7% | 99.7% | |
| 31 | 2% | 99.0% | |
| 32 | 4% | 97% | |
| 33 | 9% | 93% | |
| 34 | 14% | 84% | |
| 35 | 16% | 70% | |
| 36 | 16% | 54% | Median |
| 37 | 17% | 38% | |
| 38 | 7% | 21% | |
| 39 | 7% | 15% | |
| 40 | 4% | 7% | |
| 41 | 2% | 3% | |
| 42 | 0.8% | 1.4% | |
| 43 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 44 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 45 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 46 | 0% | 0% |
Centerpartiet
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Centerpartiet page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 23 | 0% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0.7% | 99.8% | |
| 26 | 2% | 99.2% | |
| 27 | 3% | 97% | |
| 28 | 5% | 94% | |
| 29 | 14% | 89% | |
| 30 | 25% | 75% | Median |
| 31 | 18% | 50% | |
| 32 | 12% | 32% | |
| 33 | 7% | 20% | |
| 34 | 5% | 13% | |
| 35 | 5% | 8% | |
| 36 | 2% | 3% | |
| 37 | 0.7% | 0.9% | |
| 38 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 39 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 40 | 0% | 0% |
Liberalerna
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberalerna page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0.6% | 99.9% | |
| 19 | 2% | 99.4% | Last Result |
| 20 | 6% | 97% | |
| 21 | 9% | 91% | |
| 22 | 11% | 83% | |
| 23 | 24% | 72% | Median |
| 24 | 22% | 48% | |
| 25 | 15% | 26% | |
| 26 | 6% | 11% | |
| 27 | 3% | 6% | |
| 28 | 2% | 3% | |
| 29 | 0.5% | 0.7% | |
| 30 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 31 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 32 | 0% | 0% |
Kristdemokraterna
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristdemokraterna page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 16 | 1.5% | 99.6% | Last Result |
| 17 | 3% | 98% | |
| 18 | 6% | 95% | |
| 19 | 17% | 89% | |
| 20 | 19% | 72% | |
| 21 | 23% | 53% | Median |
| 22 | 17% | 30% | |
| 23 | 7% | 13% | |
| 24 | 4% | 6% | |
| 25 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 26 | 0.5% | 0.7% | |
| 27 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 28 | 0% | 0% |
Miljöpartiet de gröna
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljöpartiet de gröna page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2% | 100% | |
| 1 | 0% | 98% | |
| 2 | 0% | 98% | |
| 3 | 0% | 98% | |
| 4 | 0% | 98% | |
| 5 | 0% | 98% | |
| 6 | 0% | 98% | |
| 7 | 0% | 98% | |
| 8 | 0% | 98% | |
| 9 | 0% | 98% | |
| 10 | 0% | 98% | |
| 11 | 0% | 98% | |
| 12 | 0% | 98% | |
| 13 | 0% | 98% | |
| 14 | 0.6% | 98% | |
| 15 | 6% | 98% | |
| 16 | 11% | 92% | |
| 17 | 21% | 81% | |
| 18 | 19% | 60% | Median |
| 19 | 21% | 41% | |
| 20 | 12% | 20% | |
| 21 | 5% | 8% | |
| 22 | 2% | 3% | |
| 23 | 0.6% | 0.8% | |
| 24 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet | 219 | 183 | 98% | 178–188 | 177–190 | 175–192 | 173–196 |
| Sverigedemokraterna – Moderata samlingspartiet – Kristdemokraterna | 149 | 153 | 0% | 147–157 | 146–158 | 144–161 | 142–164 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet | 197 | 152 | 0% | 147–157 | 146–159 | 144–161 | 142–164 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna | 159 | 143 | 0% | 138–148 | 136–149 | 134–151 | 129–153 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna – Kristdemokraterna | 141 | 137 | 0% | 134–144 | 132–145 | 130–146 | 127–150 |
| Sverigedemokraterna – Moderata samlingspartiet | 133 | 132 | 0% | 127–136 | 126–138 | 124–140 | 121–142 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet | 134 | 125 | 0% | 120–130 | 119–132 | 117–133 | 115–136 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna | 125 | 117 | 0% | 114–123 | 112–124 | 109–125 | 107–128 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna | 122 | 114 | 0% | 110–120 | 109–121 | 107–123 | 105–125 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Miljöpartiet de gröna | 138 | 107 | 0% | 102–111 | 100–113 | 99–114 | 92–117 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet | 106 | 93 | 0% | 90–99 | 89–100 | 87–101 | 85–104 |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 170 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 171 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 172 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 173 | 0.5% | 99.7% | |
| 174 | 1.1% | 99.2% | |
| 175 | 1.1% | 98% | Majority |
| 176 | 2% | 97% | |
| 177 | 3% | 95% | |
| 178 | 6% | 93% | |
| 179 | 5% | 87% | |
| 180 | 8% | 81% | |
| 181 | 11% | 74% | |
| 182 | 9% | 63% | |
| 183 | 12% | 54% | Median |
| 184 | 6% | 42% | |
| 185 | 7% | 36% | |
| 186 | 8% | 29% | |
| 187 | 5% | 21% | |
| 188 | 7% | 17% | |
| 189 | 3% | 9% | |
| 190 | 1.3% | 6% | |
| 191 | 1.1% | 4% | |
| 192 | 1.1% | 3% | |
| 193 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 194 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 195 | 0.3% | 1.1% | |
| 196 | 0.4% | 0.8% | |
| 197 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 198 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 199 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 200 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 201 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 202 | 0% | 0% | |
| 203 | 0% | 0% | |
| 204 | 0% | 0% | |
| 205 | 0% | 0% | |
| 206 | 0% | 0% | |
| 207 | 0% | 0% | |
| 208 | 0% | 0% | |
| 209 | 0% | 0% | |
| 210 | 0% | 0% | |
| 211 | 0% | 0% | |
| 212 | 0% | 0% | |
| 213 | 0% | 0% | |
| 214 | 0% | 0% | |
| 215 | 0% | 0% | |
| 216 | 0% | 0% | |
| 217 | 0% | 0% | |
| 218 | 0% | 0% | |
| 219 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Sverigedemokraterna – Moderata samlingspartiet – Kristdemokraterna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 139 | 0% | 100% | |
| 140 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 141 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 142 | 0.7% | 99.6% | |
| 143 | 0.8% | 98.9% | |
| 144 | 1.2% | 98% | |
| 145 | 1.2% | 97% | |
| 146 | 1.4% | 96% | |
| 147 | 5% | 94% | |
| 148 | 9% | 89% | |
| 149 | 10% | 80% | Last Result |
| 150 | 7% | 70% | |
| 151 | 6% | 63% | |
| 152 | 7% | 57% | Median |
| 153 | 13% | 50% | |
| 154 | 9% | 37% | |
| 155 | 9% | 28% | |
| 156 | 7% | 20% | |
| 157 | 5% | 13% | |
| 158 | 3% | 7% | |
| 159 | 2% | 5% | |
| 160 | 0.7% | 3% | |
| 161 | 0.8% | 3% | |
| 162 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 163 | 0.3% | 0.9% | |
| 164 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 165 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 166 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 167 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 168 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 169 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 139 | 0% | 100% | |
| 140 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 141 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 142 | 0.5% | 99.7% | |
| 143 | 0.5% | 99.2% | |
| 144 | 1.5% | 98.7% | |
| 145 | 1.4% | 97% | |
| 146 | 3% | 96% | |
| 147 | 4% | 93% | |
| 148 | 3% | 89% | |
| 149 | 10% | 86% | |
| 150 | 6% | 75% | |
| 151 | 13% | 70% | |
| 152 | 8% | 57% | |
| 153 | 13% | 49% | Median |
| 154 | 9% | 36% | |
| 155 | 7% | 27% | |
| 156 | 6% | 21% | |
| 157 | 5% | 15% | |
| 158 | 4% | 10% | |
| 159 | 1.2% | 6% | |
| 160 | 2% | 5% | |
| 161 | 1.0% | 3% | |
| 162 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 163 | 0.3% | 1.0% | |
| 164 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 165 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 166 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 167 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 168 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 169 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 170 | 0% | 0% | |
| 171 | 0% | 0% | |
| 172 | 0% | 0% | |
| 173 | 0% | 0% | |
| 174 | 0% | 0% | |
| 175 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
| 176 | 0% | 0% | |
| 177 | 0% | 0% | |
| 178 | 0% | 0% | |
| 179 | 0% | 0% | |
| 180 | 0% | 0% | |
| 181 | 0% | 0% | |
| 182 | 0% | 0% | |
| 183 | 0% | 0% | |
| 184 | 0% | 0% | |
| 185 | 0% | 0% | |
| 186 | 0% | 0% | |
| 187 | 0% | 0% | |
| 188 | 0% | 0% | |
| 189 | 0% | 0% | |
| 190 | 0% | 0% | |
| 191 | 0% | 0% | |
| 192 | 0% | 0% | |
| 193 | 0% | 0% | |
| 194 | 0% | 0% | |
| 195 | 0% | 0% | |
| 196 | 0% | 0% | |
| 197 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 123 | 0% | 100% | |
| 124 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 125 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 126 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 127 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 128 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 129 | 0.2% | 99.6% | |
| 130 | 0.2% | 99.4% | |
| 131 | 0.2% | 99.3% | |
| 132 | 0.3% | 99.1% | |
| 133 | 0.5% | 98.7% | |
| 134 | 1.4% | 98% | |
| 135 | 2% | 97% | |
| 136 | 2% | 95% | |
| 137 | 3% | 93% | |
| 138 | 3% | 90% | |
| 139 | 4% | 87% | |
| 140 | 12% | 83% | |
| 141 | 5% | 70% | |
| 142 | 14% | 65% | |
| 143 | 10% | 51% | |
| 144 | 9% | 41% | Median |
| 145 | 6% | 33% | |
| 146 | 8% | 27% | |
| 147 | 8% | 19% | |
| 148 | 4% | 10% | |
| 149 | 2% | 6% | |
| 150 | 1.3% | 4% | |
| 151 | 0.9% | 3% | |
| 152 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 153 | 0.4% | 0.9% | |
| 154 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 155 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 156 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 157 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 158 | 0% | 0% | |
| 159 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna – Kristdemokraterna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 125 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 126 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 127 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 128 | 0.4% | 99.5% | |
| 129 | 0.6% | 99.1% | |
| 130 | 1.0% | 98% | |
| 131 | 2% | 97% | |
| 132 | 2% | 95% | |
| 133 | 2% | 93% | |
| 134 | 5% | 91% | |
| 135 | 11% | 86% | |
| 136 | 14% | 75% | |
| 137 | 14% | 61% | Median |
| 138 | 9% | 47% | |
| 139 | 5% | 38% | |
| 140 | 5% | 33% | |
| 141 | 7% | 28% | Last Result |
| 142 | 6% | 21% | |
| 143 | 4% | 14% | |
| 144 | 5% | 10% | |
| 145 | 2% | 6% | |
| 146 | 1.4% | 3% | |
| 147 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 148 | 0.4% | 1.3% | |
| 149 | 0.3% | 0.9% | |
| 150 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 151 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 152 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 153 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 154 | 0% | 0% |
Sverigedemokraterna – Moderata samlingspartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 119 | 0% | 100% | |
| 120 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 121 | 0.6% | 99.7% | |
| 122 | 0.7% | 99.1% | |
| 123 | 0.6% | 98% | |
| 124 | 0.6% | 98% | |
| 125 | 2% | 97% | |
| 126 | 5% | 96% | |
| 127 | 6% | 90% | |
| 128 | 11% | 84% | |
| 129 | 9% | 73% | |
| 130 | 4% | 64% | |
| 131 | 4% | 60% | Median |
| 132 | 10% | 56% | |
| 133 | 10% | 45% | Last Result |
| 134 | 15% | 35% | |
| 135 | 8% | 20% | |
| 136 | 4% | 12% | |
| 137 | 2% | 8% | |
| 138 | 2% | 6% | |
| 139 | 2% | 5% | |
| 140 | 1.5% | 3% | |
| 141 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 142 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 143 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 144 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 145 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 146 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 147 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 148 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 149 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 112 | 0% | 100% | |
| 113 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 114 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 115 | 0.5% | 99.6% | |
| 116 | 0.6% | 99.2% | |
| 117 | 1.4% | 98.6% | |
| 118 | 2% | 97% | |
| 119 | 3% | 95% | |
| 120 | 4% | 92% | |
| 121 | 9% | 88% | |
| 122 | 5% | 79% | |
| 123 | 12% | 74% | |
| 124 | 9% | 63% | |
| 125 | 13% | 54% | |
| 126 | 6% | 41% | Median |
| 127 | 11% | 35% | |
| 128 | 8% | 24% | |
| 129 | 4% | 16% | |
| 130 | 5% | 13% | |
| 131 | 2% | 8% | |
| 132 | 2% | 6% | |
| 133 | 1.2% | 3% | |
| 134 | 0.8% | 2% | Last Result |
| 135 | 0.3% | 1.2% | |
| 136 | 0.4% | 0.9% | |
| 137 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 138 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 139 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 140 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 141 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 106 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 107 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 108 | 0.8% | 99.5% | |
| 109 | 1.4% | 98.7% | |
| 110 | 1.2% | 97% | |
| 111 | 0.9% | 96% | |
| 112 | 2% | 95% | |
| 113 | 3% | 93% | |
| 114 | 10% | 91% | |
| 115 | 17% | 80% | |
| 116 | 9% | 63% | Median |
| 117 | 15% | 54% | |
| 118 | 4% | 38% | |
| 119 | 4% | 34% | |
| 120 | 3% | 30% | |
| 121 | 8% | 27% | |
| 122 | 5% | 19% | |
| 123 | 7% | 14% | |
| 124 | 3% | 6% | |
| 125 | 1.2% | 3% | Last Result |
| 126 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 127 | 0.3% | 1.3% | |
| 128 | 0.5% | 1.0% | |
| 129 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 130 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 131 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 132 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 102 | 0% | 100% | |
| 103 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 104 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 105 | 0.4% | 99.6% | |
| 106 | 1.1% | 99.2% | |
| 107 | 0.7% | 98% | |
| 108 | 1.4% | 97% | |
| 109 | 3% | 96% | |
| 110 | 3% | 93% | |
| 111 | 6% | 90% | |
| 112 | 20% | 84% | |
| 113 | 5% | 64% | |
| 114 | 10% | 59% | Median |
| 115 | 11% | 49% | |
| 116 | 6% | 38% | |
| 117 | 6% | 31% | |
| 118 | 11% | 25% | |
| 119 | 4% | 15% | |
| 120 | 4% | 11% | |
| 121 | 3% | 7% | |
| 122 | 1.4% | 4% | Last Result |
| 123 | 1.3% | 3% | |
| 124 | 0.5% | 1.3% | |
| 125 | 0.4% | 0.8% | |
| 126 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 127 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 128 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 129 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 130 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Miljöpartiet de gröna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 87 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 88 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 89 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 90 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 91 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 92 | 0.2% | 99.6% | |
| 93 | 0.2% | 99.4% | |
| 94 | 0.3% | 99.2% | |
| 95 | 0.1% | 98.9% | |
| 96 | 0.3% | 98.7% | |
| 97 | 0.3% | 98% | |
| 98 | 0.7% | 98% | |
| 99 | 2% | 98% | |
| 100 | 1.0% | 96% | |
| 101 | 3% | 95% | |
| 102 | 3% | 92% | |
| 103 | 3% | 89% | |
| 104 | 7% | 85% | |
| 105 | 9% | 78% | |
| 106 | 10% | 69% | |
| 107 | 17% | 58% | |
| 108 | 5% | 41% | Median |
| 109 | 15% | 36% | |
| 110 | 5% | 21% | |
| 111 | 7% | 16% | |
| 112 | 3% | 8% | |
| 113 | 2% | 5% | |
| 114 | 1.4% | 4% | |
| 115 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 116 | 0.6% | 1.3% | |
| 117 | 0.3% | 0.7% | |
| 118 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 119 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 120 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 121 | 0% | 0% | |
| 122 | 0% | 0% | |
| 123 | 0% | 0% | |
| 124 | 0% | 0% | |
| 125 | 0% | 0% | |
| 126 | 0% | 0% | |
| 127 | 0% | 0% | |
| 128 | 0% | 0% | |
| 129 | 0% | 0% | |
| 130 | 0% | 0% | |
| 131 | 0% | 0% | |
| 132 | 0% | 0% | |
| 133 | 0% | 0% | |
| 134 | 0% | 0% | |
| 135 | 0% | 0% | |
| 136 | 0% | 0% | |
| 137 | 0% | 0% | |
| 138 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 83 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 84 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 85 | 0.8% | 99.5% | |
| 86 | 1.0% | 98.8% | |
| 87 | 1.2% | 98% | |
| 88 | 1.2% | 97% | |
| 89 | 3% | 95% | |
| 90 | 4% | 93% | |
| 91 | 12% | 89% | |
| 92 | 15% | 77% | |
| 93 | 15% | 62% | Median |
| 94 | 10% | 47% | |
| 95 | 5% | 37% | |
| 96 | 4% | 32% | |
| 97 | 5% | 28% | |
| 98 | 9% | 23% | |
| 99 | 7% | 14% | |
| 100 | 4% | 7% | |
| 101 | 2% | 4% | |
| 102 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 103 | 0.6% | 1.3% | |
| 104 | 0.2% | 0.7% | |
| 105 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 106 | 0.1% | 0.2% | Last Result |
| 107 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 108 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Novus
- Commissioner(s): SVT
- Fieldwork period: 4–6 September 2018
Calculations
- Sample size: 1847
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 1.16%