Opinion Poll by Sifo for Svenska Dagbladet, 5–6 September 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti 31.0% 24.5% 23.6–25.4% 23.3–25.7% 23.1–25.9% 22.6–26.4%
Sverigedemokraterna 12.9% 17.0% 16.2–17.9% 16.0–18.1% 15.8–18.3% 15.4–18.7%
Moderata samlingspartiet 23.3% 17.0% 16.2–17.8% 15.9–18.0% 15.7–18.2% 15.4–18.7%
Centerpartiet 6.1% 10.0% 9.4–10.7% 9.2–10.9% 9.1–11.1% 8.8–11.4%
Vänsterpartiet 5.7% 10.0% 9.4–10.7% 9.2–10.9% 9.1–11.1% 8.8–11.4%
Miljöpartiet de gröna 6.9% 6.2% 5.7–6.8% 5.6–6.9% 5.4–7.1% 5.2–7.3%
Liberalerna 5.4% 6.0% 5.5–6.6% 5.4–6.7% 5.3–6.9% 5.0–7.1%
Kristdemokraterna 4.6% 6.0% 5.5–6.6% 5.4–6.7% 5.3–6.9% 5.0–7.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti 113 89 85–91 84–92 83–93 81–95
Sverigedemokraterna 49 62 58–65 58–65 57–66 56–67
Moderata samlingspartiet 84 61 58–64 57–65 57–66 55–67
Centerpartiet 22 36 34–39 33–39 33–40 31–41
Vänsterpartiet 21 36 34–38 33–39 33–40 32–41
Miljöpartiet de gröna 25 22 21–24 20–25 20–25 19–26
Liberalerna 19 22 20–24 20–24 19–24 18–26
Kristdemokraterna 16 22 20–24 19–24 19–24 18–26

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
80 0.1% 100%  
81 0.4% 99.8%  
82 1.1% 99.4%  
83 2% 98%  
84 4% 96%  
85 6% 92%  
86 11% 86%  
87 10% 75%  
88 15% 65%  
89 14% 50% Median
90 19% 36%  
91 8% 18%  
92 5% 10%  
93 2% 5%  
94 1.4% 2%  
95 0.7% 1.0%  
96 0.2% 0.3%  
97 0% 0.1%  
98 0% 0%  
99 0% 0%  
100 0% 0%  
101 0% 0%  
102 0% 0%  
103 0% 0%  
104 0% 0%  
105 0% 0%  
106 0% 0%  
107 0% 0%  
108 0% 0%  
109 0% 0%  
110 0% 0%  
111 0% 0%  
112 0% 0%  
113 0% 0% Last Result

Sverigedemokraterna

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sverigedemokraterna page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0% 100% Last Result
50 0% 100%  
51 0% 100%  
52 0% 100%  
53 0% 100%  
54 0.1% 100%  
55 0.4% 99.9%  
56 1.2% 99.5%  
57 2% 98%  
58 8% 96%  
59 6% 88%  
60 15% 81%  
61 16% 67%  
62 18% 51% Median
63 14% 33%  
64 7% 18%  
65 8% 12%  
66 2% 3%  
67 1.1% 2%  
68 0.4% 0.5%  
69 0.1% 0.1%  
70 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Moderata samlingspartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0.2% 100%  
55 0.4% 99.8%  
56 2% 99.4%  
57 5% 98%  
58 8% 93%  
59 13% 85%  
60 17% 72%  
61 14% 55% Median
62 14% 41%  
63 12% 27%  
64 8% 15%  
65 4% 7%  
66 2% 3%  
67 0.8% 1.2%  
68 0.3% 0.3%  
69 0.1% 0.1%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0% Last Result

Centerpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Centerpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0% 100% Last Result
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0% 100%  
28 0% 100%  
29 0% 100%  
30 0.1% 100%  
31 0.4% 99.9%  
32 2% 99.5%  
33 5% 98%  
34 12% 93%  
35 14% 81%  
36 26% 67% Median
37 18% 41%  
38 12% 23%  
39 7% 12%  
40 3% 4%  
41 0.7% 0.9%  
42 0.2% 0.2%  
43 0% 0%  

Vänsterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vänsterpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0% 100% Last Result
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0% 100%  
28 0% 100%  
29 0% 100%  
30 0.1% 100%  
31 0.3% 99.9%  
32 1.4% 99.6%  
33 5% 98%  
34 11% 93%  
35 21% 82%  
36 24% 61% Median
37 15% 37%  
38 13% 23%  
39 7% 10%  
40 2% 3%  
41 0.7% 1.1%  
42 0.4% 0.4%  
43 0% 0%  

Miljöpartiet de gröna

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljöpartiet de gröna page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.2% 100%  
19 1.4% 99.8%  
20 8% 98%  
21 15% 90%  
22 31% 75% Median
23 22% 45%  
24 14% 23%  
25 7% 9% Last Result
26 2% 2%  
27 0.4% 0.4%  
28 0.1% 0.1%  
29 0% 0%  

Liberalerna

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberalerna page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 2% 100%  
19 1.2% 98% Last Result
20 27% 97%  
21 10% 69%  
22 36% 60% Median
23 14% 24%  
24 8% 11%  
25 2% 2%  
26 0.5% 0.6%  
27 0.1% 0.1%  
28 0% 0%  

Kristdemokraterna

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristdemokraterna page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0% 100% Last Result
17 0.1% 100%  
18 1.0% 99.9%  
19 5% 98.9%  
20 11% 94%  
21 30% 83%  
22 25% 52% Median
23 15% 27%  
24 10% 12%  
25 2% 2%  
26 0.5% 0.6%  
27 0.1% 0.1%  
28 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet 219 186 99.8% 182–190 180–191 179–192 176–193
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet 197 150 0% 145–153 144–155 143–155 141–157
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna 159 147 0% 143–150 142–152 141–153 138–155
Sverigedemokraterna – Moderata samlingspartiet – Kristdemokraterna 149 144 0% 140–148 139–149 138–150 136–152
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna – Liberalerna 141 140 0% 137–144 135–145 134–147 133–148
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet 134 124 0% 120–128 120–129 118–130 117–133
Sverigedemokraterna – Moderata samlingspartiet 133 122 0% 119–126 118–127 117–128 115–130
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna 122 119 0% 115–123 114–124 113–125 111–127
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna 125 118 0% 115–123 114–124 113–125 111–126
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Miljöpartiet de gröna 138 111 0% 107–114 106–115 105–116 103–118
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet 106 97 0% 94–101 93–102 92–103 90–105

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
173 0.1% 100%  
174 0.1% 99.9%  
175 0.3% 99.8% Majority
176 0.2% 99.6%  
177 0.5% 99.3%  
178 0.7% 98.8%  
179 2% 98%  
180 3% 96%  
181 3% 93%  
182 9% 90%  
183 8% 82%  
184 10% 74%  
185 10% 64%  
186 18% 54% Median
187 9% 36%  
188 9% 27%  
189 8% 18%  
190 5% 10%  
191 2% 6%  
192 2% 3%  
193 0.6% 1.0%  
194 0.3% 0.4%  
195 0.1% 0.2%  
196 0% 0.1%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0% Last Result

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
138 0% 100%  
139 0.1% 99.9%  
140 0.2% 99.9%  
141 0.6% 99.7%  
142 0.8% 99.0%  
143 2% 98%  
144 3% 96%  
145 6% 93%  
146 8% 88%  
147 9% 80%  
148 9% 71%  
149 10% 62%  
150 19% 52% Median
151 11% 33%  
152 6% 23%  
153 8% 16%  
154 4% 9%  
155 3% 5%  
156 1.3% 2%  
157 0.8% 1.2%  
158 0.2% 0.4%  
159 0.1% 0.2%  
160 0% 0%  
161 0% 0%  
162 0% 0%  
163 0% 0%  
164 0% 0%  
165 0% 0%  
166 0% 0%  
167 0% 0%  
168 0% 0%  
169 0% 0%  
170 0% 0%  
171 0% 0%  
172 0% 0%  
173 0% 0%  
174 0% 0%  
175 0% 0% Majority
176 0% 0%  
177 0% 0%  
178 0% 0%  
179 0% 0%  
180 0% 0%  
181 0% 0%  
182 0% 0%  
183 0% 0%  
184 0% 0%  
185 0% 0%  
186 0% 0%  
187 0% 0%  
188 0% 0%  
189 0% 0%  
190 0% 0%  
191 0% 0%  
192 0% 0%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0% Last Result

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
135 0.1% 100%  
136 0% 99.9%  
137 0.1% 99.9%  
138 0.3% 99.8%  
139 0.5% 99.5%  
140 1.4% 99.0%  
141 2% 98%  
142 4% 95%  
143 5% 92%  
144 6% 87%  
145 11% 81%  
146 12% 70%  
147 13% 58% Median
148 21% 45%  
149 6% 24%  
150 9% 18%  
151 3% 9%  
152 3% 6%  
153 2% 3%  
154 0.8% 2%  
155 0.5% 0.7%  
156 0.2% 0.3%  
157 0% 0.1%  
158 0% 0%  
159 0% 0% Last Result

Sverigedemokraterna – Moderata samlingspartiet – Kristdemokraterna

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
133 0.1% 100%  
134 0.1% 99.9%  
135 0.2% 99.8%  
136 0.4% 99.7%  
137 0.7% 99.3%  
138 1.5% 98.6%  
139 2% 97%  
140 6% 95%  
141 10% 89%  
142 6% 79%  
143 18% 74%  
144 10% 55%  
145 13% 46% Median
146 10% 33%  
147 10% 22%  
148 4% 13%  
149 5% 9% Last Result
150 2% 4%  
151 1.1% 2%  
152 0.4% 0.7%  
153 0.2% 0.3%  
154 0.1% 0.1%  
155 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna – Liberalerna

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
130 0.1% 100%  
131 0.2% 99.9%  
132 0.1% 99.7%  
133 0.5% 99.7%  
134 2% 99.2%  
135 3% 97%  
136 2% 94%  
137 4% 93%  
138 12% 89%  
139 22% 77%  
140 12% 55%  
141 6% 44% Last Result, Median
142 9% 38%  
143 11% 29%  
144 10% 18%  
145 3% 7%  
146 2% 5%  
147 1.5% 3%  
148 0.7% 1.1%  
149 0.3% 0.4%  
150 0.1% 0.1%  
151 0% 0.1%  
152 0% 0%  

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
114 0% 100%  
115 0.1% 99.9%  
116 0.2% 99.8%  
117 0.9% 99.6%  
118 1.3% 98.7%  
119 2% 97%  
120 7% 95%  
121 5% 88%  
122 5% 83%  
123 14% 78%  
124 14% 64%  
125 9% 49% Median
126 17% 41%  
127 13% 24%  
128 3% 11%  
129 4% 8%  
130 2% 4%  
131 0.7% 2%  
132 0.6% 1.1%  
133 0.4% 0.5%  
134 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
135 0% 0%  

Sverigedemokraterna – Moderata samlingspartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
112 0.1% 100%  
113 0.1% 99.9%  
114 0.3% 99.9%  
115 0.5% 99.6%  
116 1.3% 99.1%  
117 2% 98%  
118 6% 96%  
119 7% 90%  
120 9% 83%  
121 9% 74%  
122 18% 65%  
123 11% 47% Median
124 10% 36%  
125 11% 26%  
126 5% 15%  
127 5% 9%  
128 2% 4%  
129 1.4% 2%  
130 0.4% 0.7%  
131 0.2% 0.3%  
132 0.1% 0.1%  
133 0% 0% Last Result

Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
109 0.1% 100%  
110 0.1% 99.9%  
111 0.3% 99.8%  
112 1.0% 99.5%  
113 1.3% 98%  
114 3% 97%  
115 5% 94%  
116 9% 90%  
117 15% 81%  
118 13% 65%  
119 12% 52% Median
120 11% 40%  
121 10% 29%  
122 8% 19% Last Result
123 5% 11%  
124 3% 6%  
125 1.4% 3%  
126 0.5% 1.2%  
127 0.5% 0.7%  
128 0.1% 0.2%  
129 0% 0.1%  
130 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
109 0% 100%  
110 0.2% 99.9%  
111 0.4% 99.8%  
112 1.1% 99.4%  
113 2% 98%  
114 3% 97%  
115 5% 94%  
116 8% 89%  
117 17% 81%  
118 15% 64%  
119 11% 49% Median
120 12% 39%  
121 8% 27%  
122 9% 19%  
123 5% 10%  
124 3% 5%  
125 2% 3% Last Result
126 0.8% 1.2%  
127 0.3% 0.4%  
128 0.1% 0.1%  
129 0% 0%  

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Miljöpartiet de gröna

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
101 0.1% 100%  
102 0.2% 99.9%  
103 0.5% 99.7%  
104 1.1% 99.2%  
105 2% 98%  
106 3% 96%  
107 4% 93%  
108 9% 89%  
109 10% 80%  
110 12% 70%  
111 15% 58% Median
112 19% 43%  
113 11% 24%  
114 6% 13%  
115 4% 7%  
116 2% 3%  
117 1.0% 2%  
118 0.4% 0.7%  
119 0.2% 0.3%  
120 0.1% 0.1%  
121 0% 0%  
122 0% 0%  
123 0% 0%  
124 0% 0%  
125 0% 0%  
126 0% 0%  
127 0% 0%  
128 0% 0%  
129 0% 0%  
130 0% 0%  
131 0% 0%  
132 0% 0%  
133 0% 0%  
134 0% 0%  
135 0% 0%  
136 0% 0%  
137 0% 0%  
138 0% 0% Last Result

Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
88 0.1% 100%  
89 0.1% 99.9%  
90 0.5% 99.8%  
91 1.0% 99.3%  
92 2% 98%  
93 4% 96%  
94 10% 93%  
95 9% 83%  
96 16% 73%  
97 14% 57% Median
98 12% 43%  
99 10% 31%  
100 8% 20%  
101 5% 12%  
102 4% 7%  
103 2% 3%  
104 0.7% 1.4%  
105 0.5% 0.7%  
106 0.1% 0.2% Last Result
107 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations