Opinion Poll by Inizio for Aftonbladet, 3–7 September 2018
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti | 31.0% | 24.6% | 23.2–26.0% | 22.9–26.4% | 22.5–26.7% | 21.9–27.4% |
| Moderata samlingspartiet | 23.3% | 19.6% | 18.4–20.9% | 18.0–21.2% | 17.7–21.6% | 17.2–22.2% |
| Sverigedemokraterna | 12.9% | 16.8% | 15.7–18.0% | 15.3–18.4% | 15.1–18.7% | 14.5–19.3% |
| Vänsterpartiet | 5.7% | 9.6% | 8.7–10.6% | 8.5–10.9% | 8.2–11.1% | 7.8–11.6% |
| Centerpartiet | 6.1% | 9.4% | 8.5–10.4% | 8.3–10.7% | 8.1–10.9% | 7.7–11.4% |
| Kristdemokraterna | 4.6% | 5.9% | 5.2–6.7% | 5.0–7.0% | 4.9–7.1% | 4.6–7.6% |
| Liberalerna | 5.4% | 5.8% | 5.1–6.6% | 4.9–6.8% | 4.8–7.0% | 4.5–7.4% |
| Miljöpartiet de gröna | 6.9% | 5.2% | 4.5–5.9% | 4.4–6.2% | 4.2–6.4% | 3.9–6.8% |
| Feministiskt initiativ | 3.1% | 1.1% | 0.8–1.5% | 0.7–1.6% | 0.7–1.7% | 0.6–1.9% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti | 113 | 89 | 83–94 | 82–94 | 81–96 | 79–98 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet | 84 | 70 | 65–76 | 64–77 | 63–78 | 62–79 |
| Sverigedemokraterna | 49 | 61 | 57–65 | 55–67 | 54–67 | 52–69 |
| Vänsterpartiet | 21 | 34 | 31–38 | 30–39 | 29–40 | 28–42 |
| Centerpartiet | 22 | 34 | 31–38 | 29–38 | 29–39 | 28–41 |
| Kristdemokraterna | 16 | 21 | 19–24 | 18–25 | 17–26 | 16–28 |
| Liberalerna | 19 | 21 | 18–24 | 18–24 | 17–25 | 16–27 |
| Miljöpartiet de gröna | 25 | 19 | 17–21 | 15–22 | 15–23 | 0–24 |
| Feministiskt initiativ | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 76 | 0% | 100% | |
| 77 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 78 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 79 | 0.4% | 99.6% | |
| 80 | 0.7% | 99.2% | |
| 81 | 4% | 98.5% | |
| 82 | 3% | 95% | |
| 83 | 5% | 92% | |
| 84 | 4% | 87% | |
| 85 | 9% | 83% | |
| 86 | 3% | 74% | |
| 87 | 10% | 71% | |
| 88 | 6% | 60% | |
| 89 | 10% | 55% | Median |
| 90 | 7% | 45% | |
| 91 | 8% | 38% | |
| 92 | 15% | 31% | |
| 93 | 2% | 16% | |
| 94 | 10% | 14% | |
| 95 | 0.9% | 4% | |
| 96 | 2% | 3% | |
| 97 | 0.6% | 1.3% | |
| 98 | 0.3% | 0.7% | |
| 99 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 100 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 101 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 102 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 103 | 0% | 0% | |
| 104 | 0% | 0% | |
| 105 | 0% | 0% | |
| 106 | 0% | 0% | |
| 107 | 0% | 0% | |
| 108 | 0% | 0% | |
| 109 | 0% | 0% | |
| 110 | 0% | 0% | |
| 111 | 0% | 0% | |
| 112 | 0% | 0% | |
| 113 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Moderata samlingspartiet
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Moderata samlingspartiet page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 59 | 0% | 100% | |
| 60 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 61 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 62 | 0.9% | 99.8% | |
| 63 | 2% | 98.8% | |
| 64 | 2% | 97% | |
| 65 | 5% | 95% | |
| 66 | 4% | 90% | |
| 67 | 4% | 86% | |
| 68 | 4% | 82% | |
| 69 | 20% | 77% | |
| 70 | 11% | 58% | Median |
| 71 | 16% | 47% | |
| 72 | 5% | 31% | |
| 73 | 8% | 25% | |
| 74 | 5% | 18% | |
| 75 | 2% | 13% | |
| 76 | 5% | 11% | |
| 77 | 3% | 6% | |
| 78 | 2% | 3% | |
| 79 | 0.4% | 0.8% | |
| 80 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 81 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 82 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 83 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 84 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Sverigedemokraterna
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sverigedemokraterna page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 49 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 50 | 0% | 100% | |
| 51 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 52 | 0.5% | 99.8% | |
| 53 | 0.5% | 99.2% | |
| 54 | 1.3% | 98.7% | |
| 55 | 2% | 97% | |
| 56 | 4% | 95% | |
| 57 | 5% | 91% | |
| 58 | 19% | 87% | |
| 59 | 7% | 67% | |
| 60 | 7% | 61% | |
| 61 | 10% | 54% | Median |
| 62 | 15% | 44% | |
| 63 | 13% | 28% | |
| 64 | 4% | 15% | |
| 65 | 2% | 12% | |
| 66 | 3% | 10% | |
| 67 | 5% | 6% | |
| 68 | 0.6% | 1.3% | |
| 69 | 0.2% | 0.7% | |
| 70 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 71 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 72 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 73 | 0% | 0% |
Vänsterpartiet
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vänsterpartiet page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 22 | 0% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0% | 100% | |
| 26 | 0% | 100% | |
| 27 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 28 | 1.1% | 99.8% | |
| 29 | 1.3% | 98.8% | |
| 30 | 4% | 97% | |
| 31 | 5% | 93% | |
| 32 | 15% | 88% | |
| 33 | 10% | 73% | |
| 34 | 16% | 63% | Median |
| 35 | 15% | 47% | |
| 36 | 14% | 33% | |
| 37 | 6% | 19% | |
| 38 | 5% | 13% | |
| 39 | 4% | 7% | |
| 40 | 2% | 3% | |
| 41 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 42 | 0.5% | 0.8% | |
| 43 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 44 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 45 | 0% | 0% |
Centerpartiet
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Centerpartiet page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 23 | 0% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0% | 100% | |
| 26 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 27 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 28 | 1.5% | 99.6% | |
| 29 | 3% | 98% | |
| 30 | 3% | 95% | |
| 31 | 6% | 92% | |
| 32 | 18% | 86% | |
| 33 | 12% | 68% | |
| 34 | 8% | 56% | Median |
| 35 | 12% | 47% | |
| 36 | 11% | 36% | |
| 37 | 13% | 25% | |
| 38 | 7% | 11% | |
| 39 | 2% | 4% | |
| 40 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 41 | 0.8% | 1.0% | |
| 42 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 43 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 44 | 0% | 0% |
Kristdemokraterna
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristdemokraterna page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0.6% | 99.9% | Last Result |
| 17 | 3% | 99.3% | |
| 18 | 4% | 96% | |
| 19 | 12% | 92% | |
| 20 | 25% | 80% | |
| 21 | 12% | 55% | Median |
| 22 | 16% | 43% | |
| 23 | 12% | 27% | |
| 24 | 7% | 15% | |
| 25 | 4% | 8% | |
| 26 | 2% | 4% | |
| 27 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 28 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 29 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 30 | 0% | 0% |
Liberalerna
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberalerna page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 16 | 1.2% | 99.8% | |
| 17 | 2% | 98.6% | |
| 18 | 8% | 96% | |
| 19 | 11% | 88% | Last Result |
| 20 | 25% | 78% | |
| 21 | 15% | 53% | Median |
| 22 | 14% | 38% | |
| 23 | 12% | 24% | |
| 24 | 7% | 12% | |
| 25 | 3% | 5% | |
| 26 | 1.5% | 2% | |
| 27 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 28 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 29 | 0% | 0% |
Miljöpartiet de gröna
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljöpartiet de gröna page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.1% | 100% | |
| 1 | 0% | 98.9% | |
| 2 | 0% | 98.9% | |
| 3 | 0% | 98.9% | |
| 4 | 0% | 98.9% | |
| 5 | 0% | 98.9% | |
| 6 | 0% | 98.9% | |
| 7 | 0% | 98.9% | |
| 8 | 0% | 98.9% | |
| 9 | 0% | 98.9% | |
| 10 | 0% | 98.9% | |
| 11 | 0% | 98.9% | |
| 12 | 0% | 98.9% | |
| 13 | 0% | 98.9% | |
| 14 | 0% | 98.9% | |
| 15 | 4% | 98.9% | |
| 16 | 5% | 95% | |
| 17 | 20% | 90% | |
| 18 | 15% | 70% | |
| 19 | 24% | 55% | Median |
| 20 | 12% | 31% | |
| 21 | 10% | 19% | |
| 22 | 6% | 8% | |
| 23 | 1.5% | 3% | |
| 24 | 0.9% | 1.2% | |
| 25 | 0.2% | 0.3% | Last Result |
| 26 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 27 | 0% | 0% |
Feministiskt initiativ
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Feministiskt initiativ page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet | 219 | 194 | 100% | 186–198 | 186–201 | 184–201 | 182–205 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet | 197 | 159 | 0% | 153–165 | 151–166 | 151–167 | 148–170 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Sverigedemokraterna – Kristdemokraterna | 149 | 152 | 0% | 147–158 | 145–159 | 144–160 | 141–164 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna – Liberalerna | 141 | 146 | 0% | 141–152 | 140–154 | 139–155 | 136–158 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna – Feministiskt initiativ | 159 | 142 | 0% | 136–147 | 135–148 | 133–150 | 128–152 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna | 159 | 142 | 0% | 136–147 | 135–148 | 133–150 | 128–152 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Sverigedemokraterna | 133 | 131 | 0% | 125–137 | 123–139 | 123–140 | 120–142 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna | 122 | 126 | 0% | 120–131 | 119–134 | 118–134 | 115–137 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna | 125 | 126 | 0% | 120–131 | 118–132 | 117–134 | 114–137 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet | 134 | 124 | 0% | 118–128 | 116–129 | 115–131 | 112–134 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Miljöpartiet de gröna | 138 | 108 | 0% | 101–113 | 100–113 | 99–114 | 92–117 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet | 106 | 105 | 0% | 99–110 | 98–112 | 96–112 | 94–115 |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 179 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 180 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 181 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 182 | 0.3% | 99.6% | |
| 183 | 1.3% | 99.2% | |
| 184 | 0.6% | 98% | |
| 185 | 1.1% | 97% | |
| 186 | 7% | 96% | |
| 187 | 3% | 89% | |
| 188 | 4% | 86% | |
| 189 | 7% | 82% | |
| 190 | 4% | 76% | |
| 191 | 6% | 72% | |
| 192 | 8% | 66% | |
| 193 | 6% | 58% | Median |
| 194 | 10% | 52% | |
| 195 | 7% | 42% | |
| 196 | 5% | 36% | |
| 197 | 13% | 31% | |
| 198 | 8% | 18% | |
| 199 | 3% | 10% | |
| 200 | 1.2% | 7% | |
| 201 | 3% | 5% | |
| 202 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 203 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 204 | 0.5% | 1.4% | |
| 205 | 0.5% | 0.9% | |
| 206 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 207 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 208 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 209 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 210 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 211 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 212 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 213 | 0% | 0% | |
| 214 | 0% | 0% | |
| 215 | 0% | 0% | |
| 216 | 0% | 0% | |
| 217 | 0% | 0% | |
| 218 | 0% | 0% | |
| 219 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 144 | 0% | 100% | |
| 145 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 146 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 147 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 148 | 0.3% | 99.5% | |
| 149 | 0.5% | 99.3% | |
| 150 | 1.1% | 98.8% | |
| 151 | 5% | 98% | |
| 152 | 2% | 93% | |
| 153 | 3% | 90% | |
| 154 | 4% | 87% | |
| 155 | 5% | 83% | |
| 156 | 10% | 78% | |
| 157 | 7% | 68% | |
| 158 | 7% | 61% | |
| 159 | 8% | 54% | Median |
| 160 | 6% | 46% | |
| 161 | 11% | 40% | |
| 162 | 4% | 30% | |
| 163 | 6% | 26% | |
| 164 | 2% | 21% | |
| 165 | 13% | 19% | |
| 166 | 2% | 5% | |
| 167 | 1.4% | 3% | |
| 168 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 169 | 0.5% | 1.4% | |
| 170 | 0.3% | 0.8% | |
| 171 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 172 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 173 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 174 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 175 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
| 176 | 0% | 0% | |
| 177 | 0% | 0% | |
| 178 | 0% | 0% | |
| 179 | 0% | 0% | |
| 180 | 0% | 0% | |
| 181 | 0% | 0% | |
| 182 | 0% | 0% | |
| 183 | 0% | 0% | |
| 184 | 0% | 0% | |
| 185 | 0% | 0% | |
| 186 | 0% | 0% | |
| 187 | 0% | 0% | |
| 188 | 0% | 0% | |
| 189 | 0% | 0% | |
| 190 | 0% | 0% | |
| 191 | 0% | 0% | |
| 192 | 0% | 0% | |
| 193 | 0% | 0% | |
| 194 | 0% | 0% | |
| 195 | 0% | 0% | |
| 196 | 0% | 0% | |
| 197 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Sverigedemokraterna – Kristdemokraterna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 138 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 139 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 140 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 141 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 142 | 0.5% | 99.4% | |
| 143 | 0.8% | 98.9% | |
| 144 | 0.9% | 98% | |
| 145 | 3% | 97% | |
| 146 | 3% | 94% | |
| 147 | 9% | 91% | |
| 148 | 5% | 83% | |
| 149 | 8% | 78% | Last Result |
| 150 | 9% | 71% | |
| 151 | 6% | 62% | |
| 152 | 11% | 56% | Median |
| 153 | 4% | 45% | |
| 154 | 5% | 41% | |
| 155 | 11% | 36% | |
| 156 | 8% | 25% | |
| 157 | 4% | 16% | |
| 158 | 6% | 13% | |
| 159 | 3% | 7% | |
| 160 | 2% | 5% | |
| 161 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 162 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 163 | 0.3% | 1.2% | |
| 164 | 0.5% | 0.9% | |
| 165 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 166 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 167 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 168 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 169 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna – Liberalerna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 133 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 134 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 135 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 136 | 0.6% | 99.6% | |
| 137 | 0.5% | 99.0% | |
| 138 | 0.7% | 98.5% | |
| 139 | 2% | 98% | |
| 140 | 2% | 96% | |
| 141 | 4% | 94% | Last Result |
| 142 | 4% | 90% | |
| 143 | 11% | 86% | |
| 144 | 8% | 75% | |
| 145 | 4% | 68% | |
| 146 | 18% | 64% | Median |
| 147 | 6% | 46% | |
| 148 | 7% | 40% | |
| 149 | 6% | 34% | |
| 150 | 10% | 28% | |
| 151 | 2% | 17% | |
| 152 | 7% | 15% | |
| 153 | 2% | 8% | |
| 154 | 2% | 6% | |
| 155 | 1.2% | 4% | |
| 156 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 157 | 0.7% | 1.5% | |
| 158 | 0.3% | 0.8% | |
| 159 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 160 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 161 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 162 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 163 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 164 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna – Feministiskt initiativ
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 123 | 0% | 100% | |
| 124 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 125 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 126 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 127 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 128 | 0.4% | 99.7% | |
| 129 | 0.2% | 99.4% | |
| 130 | 0.2% | 99.2% | |
| 131 | 0.3% | 99.0% | |
| 132 | 0.7% | 98.8% | |
| 133 | 0.8% | 98% | |
| 134 | 1.1% | 97% | |
| 135 | 4% | 96% | |
| 136 | 7% | 92% | |
| 137 | 6% | 85% | |
| 138 | 7% | 79% | |
| 139 | 8% | 72% | |
| 140 | 5% | 64% | |
| 141 | 6% | 59% | |
| 142 | 4% | 53% | Median |
| 143 | 11% | 50% | |
| 144 | 3% | 39% | |
| 145 | 18% | 35% | |
| 146 | 6% | 18% | |
| 147 | 4% | 12% | |
| 148 | 3% | 7% | |
| 149 | 1.3% | 4% | |
| 150 | 1.4% | 3% | |
| 151 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 152 | 0.5% | 0.9% | |
| 153 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 154 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 155 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 156 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 157 | 0% | 0% | |
| 158 | 0% | 0% | |
| 159 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 123 | 0% | 100% | |
| 124 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 125 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 126 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 127 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 128 | 0.4% | 99.7% | |
| 129 | 0.2% | 99.4% | |
| 130 | 0.2% | 99.2% | |
| 131 | 0.3% | 99.0% | |
| 132 | 0.7% | 98.8% | |
| 133 | 0.8% | 98% | |
| 134 | 1.1% | 97% | |
| 135 | 4% | 96% | |
| 136 | 7% | 92% | |
| 137 | 6% | 85% | |
| 138 | 7% | 79% | |
| 139 | 8% | 72% | |
| 140 | 5% | 64% | |
| 141 | 6% | 59% | |
| 142 | 4% | 53% | Median |
| 143 | 11% | 50% | |
| 144 | 3% | 39% | |
| 145 | 18% | 35% | |
| 146 | 6% | 18% | |
| 147 | 4% | 12% | |
| 148 | 3% | 7% | |
| 149 | 1.3% | 4% | |
| 150 | 1.4% | 3% | |
| 151 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 152 | 0.5% | 0.9% | |
| 153 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 154 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 155 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 156 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 157 | 0% | 0% | |
| 158 | 0% | 0% | |
| 159 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Sverigedemokraterna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 117 | 0% | 100% | |
| 118 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 119 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 120 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 121 | 0.5% | 99.5% | |
| 122 | 1.1% | 99.0% | |
| 123 | 3% | 98% | |
| 124 | 2% | 95% | |
| 125 | 3% | 93% | |
| 126 | 3% | 90% | |
| 127 | 11% | 87% | |
| 128 | 4% | 76% | |
| 129 | 8% | 72% | |
| 130 | 5% | 64% | |
| 131 | 12% | 58% | Median |
| 132 | 12% | 46% | |
| 133 | 7% | 34% | Last Result |
| 134 | 6% | 27% | |
| 135 | 5% | 20% | |
| 136 | 5% | 15% | |
| 137 | 2% | 10% | |
| 138 | 2% | 8% | |
| 139 | 3% | 6% | |
| 140 | 2% | 4% | |
| 141 | 0.6% | 1.2% | |
| 142 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 143 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 144 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 145 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 146 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 147 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 148 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 112 | 0% | 100% | |
| 113 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 114 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 115 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 116 | 0.5% | 99.4% | |
| 117 | 0.5% | 98.9% | |
| 118 | 2% | 98% | |
| 119 | 5% | 96% | |
| 120 | 3% | 92% | |
| 121 | 5% | 88% | |
| 122 | 3% | 84% | Last Result |
| 123 | 12% | 81% | |
| 124 | 10% | 69% | |
| 125 | 6% | 59% | Median |
| 126 | 15% | 54% | |
| 127 | 4% | 38% | |
| 128 | 7% | 34% | |
| 129 | 7% | 27% | |
| 130 | 6% | 20% | |
| 131 | 4% | 14% | |
| 132 | 4% | 9% | |
| 133 | 0.7% | 6% | |
| 134 | 3% | 5% | |
| 135 | 0.3% | 2% | |
| 136 | 0.4% | 1.4% | |
| 137 | 0.6% | 1.0% | |
| 138 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 139 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 140 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 141 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 142 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 112 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 113 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 114 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 115 | 0.2% | 99.4% | |
| 116 | 0.6% | 99.3% | |
| 117 | 2% | 98.7% | |
| 118 | 2% | 97% | |
| 119 | 2% | 95% | |
| 120 | 4% | 93% | |
| 121 | 3% | 89% | |
| 122 | 7% | 86% | |
| 123 | 13% | 79% | |
| 124 | 6% | 66% | |
| 125 | 8% | 60% | Last Result, Median |
| 126 | 12% | 52% | |
| 127 | 11% | 40% | |
| 128 | 7% | 28% | |
| 129 | 4% | 22% | |
| 130 | 6% | 18% | |
| 131 | 4% | 12% | |
| 132 | 3% | 7% | |
| 133 | 1.1% | 4% | |
| 134 | 2% | 3% | |
| 135 | 0.6% | 1.4% | |
| 136 | 0.3% | 0.8% | |
| 137 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 138 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 139 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 140 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 141 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 142 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 109 | 0% | 100% | |
| 110 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 111 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 112 | 0.2% | 99.6% | |
| 113 | 0.3% | 99.4% | |
| 114 | 0.5% | 99.2% | |
| 115 | 1.3% | 98.6% | |
| 116 | 3% | 97% | |
| 117 | 4% | 94% | |
| 118 | 6% | 90% | |
| 119 | 10% | 84% | |
| 120 | 8% | 74% | |
| 121 | 5% | 66% | |
| 122 | 6% | 61% | |
| 123 | 4% | 55% | Median |
| 124 | 9% | 51% | |
| 125 | 6% | 42% | |
| 126 | 13% | 36% | |
| 127 | 4% | 23% | |
| 128 | 11% | 18% | |
| 129 | 3% | 8% | |
| 130 | 2% | 5% | |
| 131 | 0.8% | 3% | |
| 132 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 133 | 0.3% | 1.0% | |
| 134 | 0.3% | 0.7% | Last Result |
| 135 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 136 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 137 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 138 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 139 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Miljöpartiet de gröna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 87 | 0% | 100% | |
| 88 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 89 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 90 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 91 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 92 | 0.2% | 99.6% | |
| 93 | 0.1% | 99.3% | |
| 94 | 0.2% | 99.2% | |
| 95 | 0.1% | 99.1% | |
| 96 | 0.2% | 99.0% | |
| 97 | 0.3% | 98.8% | |
| 98 | 0.4% | 98% | |
| 99 | 2% | 98% | |
| 100 | 2% | 96% | |
| 101 | 5% | 94% | |
| 102 | 6% | 90% | |
| 103 | 5% | 84% | |
| 104 | 9% | 78% | |
| 105 | 6% | 70% | |
| 106 | 6% | 64% | |
| 107 | 8% | 58% | |
| 108 | 3% | 51% | Median |
| 109 | 15% | 47% | |
| 110 | 6% | 33% | |
| 111 | 8% | 26% | |
| 112 | 6% | 19% | |
| 113 | 8% | 13% | |
| 114 | 2% | 4% | |
| 115 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 116 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 117 | 0.5% | 1.0% | |
| 118 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 119 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 120 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 121 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 122 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 123 | 0% | 0% | |
| 124 | 0% | 0% | |
| 125 | 0% | 0% | |
| 126 | 0% | 0% | |
| 127 | 0% | 0% | |
| 128 | 0% | 0% | |
| 129 | 0% | 0% | |
| 130 | 0% | 0% | |
| 131 | 0% | 0% | |
| 132 | 0% | 0% | |
| 133 | 0% | 0% | |
| 134 | 0% | 0% | |
| 135 | 0% | 0% | |
| 136 | 0% | 0% | |
| 137 | 0% | 0% | |
| 138 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 92 | 0% | 100% | |
| 93 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 94 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 95 | 0.8% | 99.5% | |
| 96 | 2% | 98.7% | |
| 97 | 2% | 97% | |
| 98 | 2% | 96% | |
| 99 | 6% | 94% | |
| 100 | 4% | 88% | |
| 101 | 4% | 84% | |
| 102 | 8% | 80% | |
| 103 | 11% | 72% | |
| 104 | 11% | 61% | Median |
| 105 | 12% | 51% | |
| 106 | 9% | 38% | Last Result |
| 107 | 9% | 29% | |
| 108 | 3% | 20% | |
| 109 | 4% | 17% | |
| 110 | 4% | 13% | |
| 111 | 4% | 9% | |
| 112 | 4% | 6% | |
| 113 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 114 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 115 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 116 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 117 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 118 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 119 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 120 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Inizio
- Commissioner(s): Aftonbladet
- Fieldwork period: 3–7 September 2018
Calculations
- Sample size: 1661
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 1.05%