Opinion Poll by AQ Rate for Het Laatste Nieuws, 1–31 July 2014

Areas included: Flanders

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
N-VA 20.3% 33.0% 31.0–35.0% 30.4–35.6% 29.9–36.1% 29.0–37.1%
CD&V 11.6% 17.7% 16.2–19.5% 15.7–20.0% 15.3–20.4% 14.6–21.3%
Open Vld 9.8% 15.5% 14.0–17.1% 13.6–17.6% 13.2–18.0% 12.5–18.8%
sp.a 8.8% 14.5% 13.1–16.2% 12.7–16.6% 12.4–17.0% 11.7–17.8%
Groen 5.3% 9.0% 7.9–10.3% 7.5–10.7% 7.3–11.1% 6.8–11.7%
Vlaams Belang 3.7% 5.8% 4.9–6.9% 4.7–7.2% 4.4–7.5% 4.0–8.1%
PVDA 1.8% 3.1% 2.4–4.0% 2.3–4.2% 2.1–4.4% 1.9–4.9%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
N-VA 33 33 30–35 30–36 29–37 28–37
CD&V 18 17 14–18 13–18 13–19 13–21
Open Vld 14 13 12–17 12–17 12–17 11–18
sp.a 13 13 12–15 11–15 11–16 9–17
Groen 6 6 5–9 5–9 5–10 5–10
Vlaams Belang 3 3 2–5 1–6 1–6 0–7
PVDA 0 0 0 0 0 0

N-VA

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the N-VA page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0.1% 100%  
28 0.6% 99.9%  
29 3% 99.3%  
30 8% 96%  
31 17% 89%  
32 19% 71%  
33 16% 53% Last Result, Median
34 21% 36%  
35 8% 16%  
36 4% 8%  
37 3% 4%  
38 0.3% 0.4%  
39 0.1% 0.1%  
40 0% 0%  

CD&V

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the CD&V page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 6% 100%  
14 7% 94%  
15 8% 87%  
16 16% 79%  
17 18% 63% Median
18 41% 46% Last Result
19 2% 5%  
20 1.3% 2%  
21 1.1% 1.2%  
22 0.1% 0.1%  
23 0% 0%  

Open Vld

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Open Vld page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.9% 100%  
12 19% 99.1%  
13 35% 80% Median
14 11% 45% Last Result
15 8% 34%  
16 10% 26%  
17 13% 16%  
18 2% 2%  
19 0% 0%  

sp.a

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the sp.a page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.7% 100%  
10 2% 99.3%  
11 4% 98%  
12 8% 93%  
13 52% 85% Last Result, Median
14 14% 33%  
15 15% 19%  
16 3% 4%  
17 0.7% 0.9%  
18 0.2% 0.2%  
19 0% 0%  

Groen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Groen page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 13% 100%  
6 37% 87% Last Result, Median
7 11% 50%  
8 29% 39%  
9 5% 10%  
10 5% 5%  
11 0.3% 0.4%  
12 0.1% 0.1%  
13 0% 0%  

Vlaams Belang

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vlaams Belang page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 1.0% 100%  
1 5% 99.0%  
2 44% 94%  
3 9% 50% Last Result, Median
4 8% 41%  
5 27% 33%  
6 5% 6%  
7 0.9% 1.0%  
8 0.1% 0.1%  
9 0% 0%  

PVDA

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the PVDA page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval | |:———:|:———–:|:——:|:———:|:———————–:|:———————–:|:———————–:|:———————–:|

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations