N-VA

Voting Intentions | Seats

Voting Intentions

Last result: 20.3% (General Election of 25 May 2014)

Confidence Intervals

Period Polling firm/Commissioner(s) Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
N/A Poll Average 16.4% 15.8–16.7% 15.6–16.7% 15.4–16.7% 15.0–16.7%
6–14 May 2019 Ipsos
Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM		 17.8% 15.9–16.8% 15.7–16.8% 15.5–16.9% 15.1–16.9%
25 March–14 April 2019 TNS
De Standaard, La Libre Belgique, RTBf and VRT		 17.6% 15.7–16.6% 15.5–16.6% 15.3–16.6% 14.9–16.6%
5–11 February 2019 Ipsos
Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM		 17.5% 15.5–16.4% 15.3–16.5% 15.1–16.5% 14.7–16.5%
13–17 December 2018 Ipsos
Het Nieuwsblad		 30.2% N/A N/A N/A N/A
19 November–8 December 2018 TNS
De Standaard, La Libre Belgique, RTBf and VRT		 18.0% 16.1–17.0% 15.9–17.0% 15.7–17.0% 15.3–17.0%
27 November–3 December 2018 Ipsos
Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM		 17.7% 15.8–16.7% 15.6–16.7% 15.4–16.7% 15.0–16.7%
20–27 September 2018 Ipsos
Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM		 15.9% 14.1–14.9% 13.9–15.0% 13.7–15.0% 13.3–15.0%
29 May–6 June 2018 Ipsos
Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM		 16.9% 15.0–15.9% 14.8–15.9% 14.6–15.9% 14.2–15.9%
26 February–17 March 2018 TNS
De Standaard–VRT–RTBf–La Libre Belgique		 20.4% 18.4–19.3% 18.1–19.3% 17.9–19.3% 17.5–19.4%
27 February–6 March 2018 Ipsos
RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws		 19.8% 17.8–18.7% 17.6–18.8% 17.4–18.8% 16.9–18.8%
27 November–4 December 2017 Ipsos
RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws		 18.7% 16.8–17.7% 16.6–17.7% 16.4–17.7% 16.0–17.7%
11 September–5 October 2017 TNS
De Standaard–VRT–RTBf–La Libre Belgique		 17.6% 15.8–16.6% 15.6–16.7% 15.4–16.7% 15.0–16.7%
25 August–3 September 2017 Ipsos
RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws		 18.9% 17.0–17.9% 16.7–17.9% 16.5–17.9% 16.1–18.0%
23–27 June 2017 Dedicated
MR		 16.7% 15.3–17.7% 14.9–17.9% 14.6–18.0% 14.0–18.1%
27 March–11 April 2017 TNS
De Standaard–VRT		 26.3% 24.6–28.1% 24.1–28.6% 23.7–29.1% 22.9–30.0%
16–20 March 2017 Dedicated
RTBf–La Libre Belgique		 25.6% 22.8–24.4% 22.4–24.4% 22.1–24.5% 21.4–24.5%
16–17 February 2017 iVox
Sudpresse		 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
10–17 January 2017 Ipsos
RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws		 17.3% 15.4–16.3% 15.2–16.3% 15.0–16.3% 14.6–16.4%
24–28 November 2016 Dedicated
RTBf–La Libre Belgique		 23.9% 21.0–22.6% 20.7–22.7% 20.3–22.7% 19.6–22.7%
14 September–3 October 2016 TNS
De Standaard–VRT		 27.8% 26.1–29.7% 25.6–30.2% 25.2–30.7% 24.3–31.6%
19–25 September 2016 Ipsos
RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws		 16.0% 14.9–16.8% 14.6–17.0% 14.4–17.1% 13.9–17.1%
2–6 September 2016 Dedicated
RTBf–La Libre Belgique		 15.9% 13.8–14.8% 13.6–14.8% 13.4–14.8% 12.9–14.8%
6–12 May 2016 Ipsos
RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws		 15.0% 13.9–15.7% 13.6–15.9% 13.4–16.0% 12.9–16.0%
31 March–4 April 2016 Dedicated
RTBf–La Libre Belgique		 16.1% 14.0–15.0% 13.8–15.0% 13.5–15.0% 13.1–15.0%
22 February–9 March 2016 TNS
De Standaard–VRT		 27.3% 25.5–29.1% 25.0–29.6% 24.6–30.1% 23.8–31.0%
15–20 January 2016 Ipsos
RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws		 17.6% 16.5–18.4% 16.2–18.5% 15.9–18.6% 15.4–18.7%
3–7 December 2015 Dedicated
RTBf–La Libre Belgique		 19.5% 18.2–20.3% 17.9–20.5% 17.6–20.6% 17.1–20.7%
28 September–4 October 2015 Ipsos
RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws		 19.3% 18.0–20.1% 17.7–20.2% 17.5–20.3% 16.9–20.4%
22 September–2 October 2015 TNS
De Standaard–VRT		 31.1% 29.3–33.0% 28.8–33.6% 28.3–34.0% 27.5–34.9%
9–14 September 2015 Dedicated
RTBf–La Libre Belgique		 18.4% 17.0–19.4% 16.6–19.6% 16.3–19.7% 15.7–19.8%
12–18 May 2015 Dedicated
RTBf–La Libre Belgique		 18.8% 17.4–19.7% 17.0–19.9% 16.7–20.0% 16.1–20.1%
5 March–9 May 2015 Dedicated
La Libre Belgique–RTBf		 3.5% N/A N/A N/A N/A
20 April–3 May 2015 TNS
De Standaard–VRT		 28.5% 26.7–30.3% 26.2–30.9% 25.8–31.3% 25.0–32.2%
20–24 April 2015 Ipsos
RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws		 18.9% 17.7–19.8% 17.4–19.9% 17.1–20.0% 16.5–20.1%
5–9 March 2015 Dedicated
RTBf–La Libre Belgique		 18.1% 15.8–16.9% 15.5–16.9% 15.3–16.9% 14.8–16.9%
23–28 January 2015 Ipsos
RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws		 20.2% 18.9–21.0% 18.6–21.2% 18.3–21.3% 17.8–21.4%
5–11 January 2015 Ipsos
RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws		 18.6% 17.4–19.4% 17.1–19.5% 16.8–19.6% 16.3–19.7%
4–5 December 2014 AQ Rate
Het Laatste Nieuws		 28.0% 26.0–30.1% 25.4–30.7% 25.0–31.2% 24.0–32.2%
27 November–1 December 2014 Dedicated
RTBf–La Libre Belgique		 20.6% 19.2–21.7% 18.8–21.9% 18.5–22.0% 17.9–22.1%
9–10 October 2014 AQ Rate
Het Laatste Nieuws		 30.0% 27.9–32.1% 27.4–32.7% 26.9–33.2% 25.9–34.3%
22 September–3 October 2014 TNS
De Standaard–VRT		 29.9% 28.1–31.8% 27.6–32.3% 27.2–32.8% 26.3–33.7%
5–9 September 2014 Dedicated
RTBf–La Libre Belgique		 21.4% 19.9–22.4% 19.5–22.6% 19.2–22.7% 18.5–22.8%
1–31 July 2014 AQ Rate
Het Laatste Nieuws		 33.0% 31.0–35.0% 30.4–35.6% 29.9–36.1% 29.0–37.1%

Probability Mass Function

The following table shows the probability mass function per percentage block of voting intentions for the poll average for N-VA.

Voting Intentions Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13.5–14.5% 0.1% 100%  
14.5–15.5% 4% 99.9%  
15.5–16.5% 64% 96% Median
16.5–17.5% 100% 32%  
17.5–18.5% 100% 0%  
18.5–19.5% 100% 0%  
19.5–20.5% 15% 0% Last Result
20.5–21.5% 0.7% 0%  

Seats

Last result: 33 seats (General Election of 25 May 2014)

Confidence Intervals

Period Polling firm/Commissioner(s) Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
N/A Poll Average 28 25–30 25–30 24–31 23–32
6–14 May 2019 Ipsos
Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM		 28 25–30 25–31 24–31 24–32
25 March–14 April 2019 TNS
De Standaard, La Libre Belgique, RTBf and VRT		 28 25–29 25–29 24–30 23–31
5–11 February 2019 Ipsos
Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM		 28 26–30 25–30 25–31 24–32
13–17 December 2018 Ipsos
Het Nieuwsblad		 29 28–32 27–33 26–34 25–34
19 November–8 December 2018 TNS
De Standaard, La Libre Belgique, RTBf and VRT		 28 26–30 25–30 25–31 24–32
27 November–3 December 2018 Ipsos
Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM		 28 26–30 25–30 24–31 24–32
20–27 September 2018 Ipsos
Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM		 25 23–28 23–28 22–29 21–30
29 May–6 June 2018 Ipsos
Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM		 28 25–29 25–30 24–30 23–31
26 February–17 March 2018 TNS
De Standaard–VRT–RTBf–La Libre Belgique		 31 29–33 29–34 28–34 28–36
27 February–6 March 2018 Ipsos
RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws		 31 29–34 29–35 29–35 28–36
27 November–4 December 2017 Ipsos
RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws		 30 29–33 28–34 28–34 26–35
11 September–5 October 2017 TNS
De Standaard–VRT–RTBf–La Libre Belgique		 28 25–29 24–30 24–30 23–31
25 August–3 September 2017 Ipsos
RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws		 30 28–32 27–33 27–33 26–35
23–27 June 2017 Dedicated
MR		 27 24–29 23–29 23–30 22–31
27 March–11 April 2017 TNS
De Standaard–VRT		 25 23–27 23–28 22–28 21–29
16–20 March 2017 Dedicated
RTBf–La Libre Belgique		 28 25–30 25–31 24–31 23–32
16–17 February 2017 iVox
Sudpresse		          
10–17 January 2017 Ipsos
RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws		 28 26–30 25–30 24–31 23–32
24–28 November 2016 Dedicated
RTBf–La Libre Belgique		 26 24–28 24–29 23–30 21–31
14 September–3 October 2016 TNS
De Standaard–VRT		 27 25–29 24–30 24–30 23–31
19–25 September 2016 Ipsos
RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws		 26 24–28 24–28 23–29 22–30
2–6 September 2016 Dedicated
RTBf–La Libre Belgique		 25 24–28 23–28 22–29 20–30
6–12 May 2016 Ipsos
RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws		 24 23–26 22–27 21–27 20–28
31 March–4 April 2016 Dedicated
RTBf–La Libre Belgique		 25 23–28 23–28 22–29 20–30
22 February–9 March 2016 TNS
De Standaard–VRT		 27 24–29 24–29 23–29 23–31
15–20 January 2016 Ipsos
RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws		 28 26–31 26–31 25–31 24–32
3–7 December 2015 Dedicated
RTBf–La Libre Belgique		 29 27–31 26–31 25–32 24–33
28 September–4 October 2015 Ipsos
RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws		 29 27–31 27–31 26–32 24–33
22 September–2 October 2015 TNS
De Standaard–VRT		 31 29–33 28–33 28–34 26–35
9–14 September 2015 Dedicated
RTBf–La Libre Belgique		 27 25–30 24–31 24–31 23–32
12–18 May 2015 Dedicated
RTBf–La Libre Belgique		 28 25–30 24–31 24–31 23–32
5 March–9 May 2015 Dedicated
La Libre Belgique–RTBf		 0 0 0 0 0
20 April–3 May 2015 TNS
De Standaard–VRT		 27 25–29 24–30 24–30 23–31
20–24 April 2015 Ipsos
RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws		 29 26–31 26–31 25–32 24–33
5–9 March 2015 Dedicated
RTBf–La Libre Belgique		 29 26–31 25–32 25–32 24–34
23–28 January 2015 Ipsos
RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws		 30 28–32 27–32 27–33 26–34
5–11 January 2015 Ipsos
RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws		 28 26–30 25–31 25–31 24–32
4–5 December 2014 AQ Rate
Het Laatste Nieuws		 28 26–31 25–31 24–31 24–32
27 November–1 December 2014 Dedicated
RTBf–La Libre Belgique		 31 29–33 28–34 28–35 26–37
9–10 October 2014 AQ Rate
Het Laatste Nieuws		 29 27–32 26–33 26–33 25–34
22 September–3 October 2014 TNS
De Standaard–VRT		 30 27–31 26–32 26–32 25–34
5–9 September 2014 Dedicated
RTBf–La Libre Belgique		 31 29–34 29–35 28–35 27–37
1–31 July 2014 AQ Rate
Het Laatste Nieuws		 33 30–35 30–36 29–37 28–37

Probability Mass Function

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

The following table shows the probability mass function per seat for the poll average for N-VA.

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.1% 100%  
23 0.7% 99.9%  
24 3% 99.2%  
25 11% 96%  
26 17% 85%  
27 16% 68%  
28 24% 52% Median
29 14% 28%  
30 10% 14%  
31 3% 3%  
32 0.8% 0.9%  
33 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
34 0% 0%