Open Vld

Voting Intentions | Seats

Voting Intentions

Last result: 9.8% (General Election of 25 May 2014)

Confidence Intervals

Period Polling firm/Commissioner(s) Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
N/A Poll Average 6.3% 5.9–6.6% 5.7–6.6% 5.6–6.6% 5.3–6.6%
6–14 May 2019 Ipsos
Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM		 7.0% 5.7–6.3% 5.6–6.3% 5.4–6.3% 5.2–6.3%
25 March–14 April 2019 TNS
De Standaard, La Libre Belgique, RTBf and VRT		 8.9% 7.5–8.2% 7.3–8.2% 7.2–8.2% 6.9–8.2%
5–11 February 2019 Ipsos
Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM		 8.0% 6.6–7.2% 6.5–7.3% 6.3–7.3% 6.0–7.3%
13–17 December 2018 Ipsos
Het Nieuwsblad		 11.6% N/A N/A N/A N/A
19 November–8 December 2018 TNS
De Standaard, La Libre Belgique, RTBf and VRT		 10.9% 9.4–10.1% 9.2–10.1% 9.1–10.1% 8.7–10.1%
27 November–3 December 2018 Ipsos
Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM		 8.4% 7.0–7.7% 6.9–7.7% 6.7–7.7% 6.4–7.7%
20–27 September 2018 Ipsos
Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM		 8.0% 6.7–7.3% 6.5–7.3% 6.4–7.3% 6.1–7.3%
29 May–6 June 2018 Ipsos
Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM		 8.8% 7.4–8.0% 7.2–8.0% 7.1–8.0% 6.8–8.0%
26 February–17 March 2018 TNS
De Standaard–VRT–RTBf–La Libre Belgique		 9.3% 7.8–8.5% 7.7–8.5% 7.5–8.5% 7.2–8.5%
27 February–6 March 2018 Ipsos
RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws		 8.1% 6.7–7.4% 6.6–7.4% 6.4–7.4% 6.1–7.4%
27 November–4 December 2017 Ipsos
RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws		 7.6% 6.3–6.9% 6.2–6.9% 6.0–7.0% 5.8–7.0%
11 September–5 October 2017 TNS
De Standaard–VRT–RTBf–La Libre Belgique		 9.7% 8.3–8.9% 8.1–9.0% 8.0–9.0% 7.7–9.0%
25 August–3 September 2017 Ipsos
RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws		 7.6% 6.3–6.9% 6.1–6.9% 6.0–6.9% 5.7–7.0%
23–27 June 2017 Dedicated
MR		 7.8% 6.8–8.6% 6.5–8.8% 6.3–8.8% 5.9–8.9%
27 March–11 April 2017 TNS
De Standaard–VRT		 14.4% 13.1–15.9% 12.7–16.3% 12.4–16.7% 11.8–17.4%
16–20 March 2017 Dedicated
RTBf–La Libre Belgique		 12.3% 10.3–11.4% 10.0–11.5% 9.7–11.5% 9.3–11.5%
16–17 February 2017 iVox
Sudpresse		 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
10–17 January 2017 Ipsos
RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws		 8.2% 6.8–7.4% 6.6–7.4% 6.5–7.4% 6.2–7.4%
24–28 November 2016 Dedicated
RTBf–La Libre Belgique		 11.3% 9.3–10.5% 9.1–10.5% 8.8–10.5% 8.4–10.5%
14 September–3 October 2016 TNS
De Standaard–VRT		 13.6% 12.3–15.1% 12.0–15.5% 11.7–15.9% 11.1–16.6%
19–25 September 2016 Ipsos
RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws		 7.7% 6.9–8.3% 6.7–8.5% 6.5–8.5% 6.2–8.6%
2–6 September 2016 Dedicated
RTBf–La Libre Belgique		 8.8% 7.3–8.0% 7.1–8.0% 6.9–8.0% 6.6–8.0%
6–12 May 2016 Ipsos
RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws		 8.2% 7.4–8.8% 7.1–8.9% 7.0–8.9% 6.6–9.0%
31 March–4 April 2016 Dedicated
RTBf–La Libre Belgique		 8.4% 6.8–7.6% 6.7–7.6% 6.5–7.6% 6.2–7.6%
22 February–9 March 2016 TNS
De Standaard–VRT		 14.1% 12.8–15.6% 12.4–16.0% 12.1–16.4% 11.5–17.2%
15–20 January 2016 Ipsos
RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws		 7.7% 6.9–8.3% 6.7–8.4% 6.5–8.5% 6.2–8.5%
3–7 December 2015 Dedicated
RTBf–La Libre Belgique		 8.4% 7.6–9.2% 7.3–9.4% 7.1–9.5% 6.7–9.6%
28 September–4 October 2015 Ipsos
RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws		 8.4% 7.5–9.2% 7.3–9.3% 7.1–9.4% 6.7–9.5%
22 September–2 October 2015 TNS
De Standaard–VRT		 14.9% 13.6–16.4% 13.2–16.9% 12.9–17.2% 12.2–18.0%
9–14 September 2015 Dedicated
RTBf–La Libre Belgique		 9.6% 8.6–10.4% 8.3–10.5% 8.0–10.6% 7.6–10.7%
12–18 May 2015 Dedicated
RTBf–La Libre Belgique		 10.3% 9.2–11.0% 8.9–11.2% 8.7–11.3% 8.2–11.4%
5 March–9 May 2015 Dedicated
La Libre Belgique–RTBf		 2.6% N/A N/A N/A N/A
20 April–3 May 2015 TNS
De Standaard–VRT		 16.1% 14.7–17.6% 14.3–18.1% 14.0–18.4% 13.3–19.2%
20–24 April 2015 Ipsos
RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws		 9.4% 8.5–10.1% 8.2–10.2% 8.0–10.3% 7.6–10.3%
5–9 March 2015 Dedicated
RTBf–La Libre Belgique		 9.7% 7.9–8.7% 7.7–8.8% 7.6–8.8% 7.2–8.8%
23–28 January 2015 Ipsos
RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws		 9.9% 9.0–10.6% 8.8–10.7% 8.6–10.8% 8.2–10.8%
5–11 January 2015 Ipsos
RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws		 9.5% 8.7–10.2% 8.4–10.3% 8.2–10.4% 7.8–10.4%
4–5 December 2014 AQ Rate
Het Laatste Nieuws		 12.0% 10.6–13.6% 10.2–14.0% 9.9–14.4% 9.3–15.2%
27 November–1 December 2014 Dedicated
RTBf–La Libre Belgique		 8.9% 7.9–9.7% 7.6–9.9% 7.4–10.0% 7.0–10.1%
9–10 October 2014 AQ Rate
Het Laatste Nieuws		 16.0% 14.4–17.7% 14.0–18.2% 13.6–18.7% 12.9–19.5%
22 September–3 October 2014 TNS
De Standaard–VRT		 14.4% 13.1–15.9% 12.7–16.3% 12.4–16.7% 11.7–17.4%
5–9 September 2014 Dedicated
RTBf–La Libre Belgique		 10.3% 9.2–11.0% 8.9–11.2% 8.7–11.3% 8.3–11.4%
1–31 July 2014 AQ Rate
Het Laatste Nieuws		 15.5% 14.0–17.1% 13.6–17.6% 13.2–18.0% 12.5–18.8%

Probability Mass Function

The following table shows the probability mass function per percentage block of voting intentions for the poll average for Open Vld.

Voting Intentions Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3.5–4.5% 0% 100%  
4.5–5.5% 2% 100%  
5.5–6.5% 83% 98% Median
6.5–7.5% 100% 15%  
7.5–8.5% 100% 0%  
8.5–9.5% 100% 0%  
9.5–10.5% 68% 0% Last Result
10.5–11.5% 5% 0%  

Seats

Last result: 14 seats (General Election of 25 May 2014)

Confidence Intervals

Period Polling firm/Commissioner(s) Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
N/A Poll Average 11 8–14 8–14 8–15 7–17
6–14 May 2019 Ipsos
Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM		 9 8–11 8–12 8–12 7–12
25 March–14 April 2019 TNS
De Standaard, La Libre Belgique, RTBf and VRT		 12 11–14 11–15 11–16 10–17
5–11 February 2019 Ipsos
Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM		 12 10–13 10–13 9–14 8–15
13–17 December 2018 Ipsos
Het Nieuwsblad		 11 8–12 8–12 8–12 8–13
19 November–8 December 2018 TNS
De Standaard, La Libre Belgique, RTBf and VRT		 17 14–18 13–18 13–18 12–19
27 November–3 December 2018 Ipsos
Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM		 12 11–13 11–14 10–14 9–16
20–27 September 2018 Ipsos
Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM		 12 11–13 10–13 10–14 8–15
29 May–6 June 2018 Ipsos
Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM		 12 12–15 12–16 11–16 11–17
26 February–17 March 2018 TNS
De Standaard–VRT–RTBf–La Libre Belgique		 13 12–15 12–16 11–16 11–17
27 February–6 March 2018 Ipsos
RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws		 12 11–12 10–13 9–13 8–15
27 November–4 December 2017 Ipsos
RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws		 12 10–12 9–13 9–13 8–14
11 September–5 October 2017 TNS
De Standaard–VRT–RTBf–La Libre Belgique		 13 12–16 12–17 12–17 12–18
25 August–3 September 2017 Ipsos
RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws		 11 9–12 9–12 8–13 8–13
23–27 June 2017 Dedicated
MR		 12 10–12 9–13 8–14 8–16
27 March–11 April 2017 TNS
De Standaard–VRT		 13 11–14 11–14 11–14 11–17
16–20 March 2017 Dedicated
RTBf–La Libre Belgique		 12 11–13 11–14 10–15 8–17
16–17 February 2017 iVox
Sudpresse		          
10–17 January 2017 Ipsos
RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws		 12 11–13 10–13 10–14 8–15
24–28 November 2016 Dedicated
RTBf–La Libre Belgique		 12 10–12 8–13 8–13 8–15
14 September–3 October 2016 TNS
De Standaard–VRT		 12 11–13 11–13 11–14 10–16
19–25 September 2016 Ipsos
RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws		 12 11–12 10–13 9–13 8–14
2–6 September 2016 Dedicated
RTBf–La Libre Belgique		 13 12–15 11–16 11–17 10–17
6–12 May 2016 Ipsos
RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws		 12 11–13 11–13 11–14 10–16
31 March–4 April 2016 Dedicated
RTBf–La Libre Belgique		 12 11–13 11–13 10–15 8–17
22 February–9 March 2016 TNS
De Standaard–VRT		 12 11–14 11–14 11–15 11–17
15–20 January 2016 Ipsos
RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws		 12 11–12 10–13 9–13 8–14
3–7 December 2015 Dedicated
RTBf–La Libre Belgique		 12 11–12 10–13 8–13 8–14
28 September–4 October 2015 Ipsos
RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws		 12 11–12 11–13 10–13 8–14
22 September–2 October 2015 TNS
De Standaard–VRT		 13 12–15 12–16 11–17 11–18
9–14 September 2015 Dedicated
RTBf–La Libre Belgique		 13 12–15 11–17 11–17 11–18
12–18 May 2015 Dedicated
RTBf–La Libre Belgique		 13 12–17 12–17 12–18 11–18
5 March–9 May 2015 Dedicated
La Libre Belgique–RTBf		 0 0 0 0 0
20 April–3 May 2015 TNS
De Standaard–VRT		 14 12–17 12–17 12–18 12–18
20–24 April 2015 Ipsos
RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws		 13 11–14 11–15 11–16 11–17
5–9 March 2015 Dedicated
RTBf–La Libre Belgique		 13 12–17 12–17 12–18 11–18
23–28 January 2015 Ipsos
RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws		 13 12–15 12–16 11–17 11–18
5–11 January 2015 Ipsos
RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws		 13 12–14 11–15 11–16 11–17
4–5 December 2014 AQ Rate
Het Laatste Nieuws		 11 9–12 8–13 8–13 8–13
27 November–1 December 2014 Dedicated
RTBf–La Libre Belgique		 12 11–13 11–14 10–15 9–17
9–10 October 2014 AQ Rate
Het Laatste Nieuws		 14 12–17 12–18 12–18 11–18
22 September–3 October 2014 TNS
De Standaard–VRT		 13 12–14 11–15 11–16 11–17
5–9 September 2014 Dedicated
RTBf–La Libre Belgique		 13 12–17 12–17 12–18 11–18
1–31 July 2014 AQ Rate
Het Laatste Nieuws		 13 12–17 12–17 12–17 11–18

Probability Mass Function

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

The following table shows the probability mass function per seat for the poll average for Open Vld.

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0.1% 100%  
7 0.9% 99.9%  
8 15% 99.0%  
9 9% 84%  
10 8% 75%  
11 17% 67% Median
12 32% 50%  
13 8% 18%  
14 6% 10% Last Result
15 2% 4%  
16 1.2% 2%  
17 0.6% 0.6%  
18 0% 0%