sp.a
Voting Intentions
Last result: 8.8% (General Election of 25 May 2014)
Confidence Intervals
| Period | Polling firm/Commissioner(s) | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N/A | Poll Average | 6.9% | 6.2–7.3% | 6.0–7.3% | 5.8–7.3% | 5.5–7.3% |
| 6–14 May 2019 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
6.8% | 6.0–7.4% | 5.8–7.5% | 5.7–7.6% | 5.3–7.6% |
| 25 March–14 April 2019 | TNS De Standaard, La Libre Belgique, RTBf and VRT |
7.9% | 6.6–7.2% | 6.5–7.3% | 6.3–7.3% | 6.0–7.3% |
| 5–11 February 2019 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
7.0% | 5.7–6.3% | 5.6–6.3% | 5.5–6.3% | 5.2–6.4% |
| 13–17 December 2018 | Ipsos Het Nieuwsblad |
9.7% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 19 November–8 December 2018 | TNS De Standaard, La Libre Belgique, RTBf and VRT |
5.8% | 4.7–5.3% | 4.6–5.3% | 4.5–5.3% | 4.3–5.3% |
| 27 November–3 December 2018 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
7.7% | 6.4–7.0% | 6.2–7.0% | 6.1–7.0% | 5.8–7.0% |
| 20–27 September 2018 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
7.5% | 6.2–6.9% | 6.1–6.9% | 6.0–6.9% | 5.7–6.9% |
| 29 May–6 June 2018 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
7.3% | 6.0–6.6% | 5.9–6.6% | 5.7–6.6% | 5.5–6.6% |
| 26 February–17 March 2018 | TNS De Standaard–VRT–RTBf–La Libre Belgique |
5.9% | 4.8–5.3% | 4.6–5.3% | 4.5–5.3% | 4.3–5.3% |
| 27 February–6 March 2018 | Ipsos RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws |
8.0% | 6.7–7.3% | 6.5–7.3% | 6.4–7.3% | 6.1–7.3% |
| 27 November–4 December 2017 | Ipsos RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws |
6.8% | 5.6–6.2% | 5.4–6.2% | 5.3–6.2% | 5.0–6.2% |
| 11 September–5 October 2017 | TNS De Standaard–VRT–RTBf–La Libre Belgique |
6.9% | 5.7–6.2% | 5.5–6.3% | 5.4–6.3% | 5.1–6.3% |
| 25 August–3 September 2017 | Ipsos RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws |
7.7% | 6.3–6.9% | 6.2–7.0% | 6.0–7.0% | 5.8–7.0% |
| 23–27 June 2017 | Dedicated MR |
5.8% | 5.0–6.6% | 4.7–6.7% | 4.5–6.8% | 4.2–6.8% |
| 27 March–11 April 2017 | TNS De Standaard–VRT |
13.2% | 11.9–14.6% | 11.6–15.1% | 11.3–15.4% | 10.7–16.1% |
| 16–20 March 2017 | Dedicated RTBf–La Libre Belgique |
11.6% | 9.6–10.7% | 9.3–10.7% | 9.1–10.8% | 8.6–10.8% |
| 16–17 February 2017 | iVox Sudpresse |
0.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 10–17 January 2017 | Ipsos RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws |
8.3% | 6.9–7.6% | 6.7–7.6% | 6.6–7.6% | 6.3–7.6% |
| 24–28 November 2016 | Dedicated RTBf–La Libre Belgique |
11.8% | 9.7–10.9% | 9.4–10.9% | 9.2–10.9% | 8.7–10.9% |
| 14 September–3 October 2016 | TNS De Standaard–VRT |
15.8% | 14.4–17.3% | 14.0–17.8% | 13.7–18.2% | 13.0–18.9% |
| 19–25 September 2016 | Ipsos RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws |
8.5% | 7.6–9.1% | 7.4–9.2% | 7.2–9.3% | 6.9–9.4% |
| 2–6 September 2016 | Dedicated RTBf–La Libre Belgique |
9.3% | 7.7–8.5% | 7.5–8.5% | 7.4–8.5% | 7.0–8.5% |
| 6–12 May 2016 | Ipsos RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws |
9.7% | 8.8–10.3% | 8.5–10.4% | 8.3–10.5% | 8.0–10.6% |
| 31 March–4 April 2016 | Dedicated RTBf–La Libre Belgique |
8.9% | 7.9–9.6% | 7.6–9.8% | 7.4–9.9% | 7.0–10.0% |
| 22 February–9 March 2016 | TNS De Standaard–VRT |
14.7% | 13.4–16.2% | 13.0–16.7% | 12.7–17.0% | 12.0–17.8% |
| 15–20 January 2016 | Ipsos RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws |
9.4% | 8.5–10.1% | 8.3–10.2% | 8.1–10.3% | 7.8–10.3% |
| 3–7 December 2015 | Dedicated RTBf–La Libre Belgique |
9.4% | 8.6–10.1% | 8.3–10.2% | 8.1–10.3% | 7.7–10.4% |
| 28 September–4 October 2015 | Ipsos RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws |
9.7% | 8.8–10.3% | 8.5–10.4% | 8.3–10.5% | 7.9–10.6% |
| 22 September–2 October 2015 | TNS De Standaard–VRT |
13.8% | 12.5–15.3% | 12.2–15.7% | 11.9–16.1% | 11.3–16.8% |
| 9–14 September 2015 | Dedicated RTBf–La Libre Belgique |
10.8% | 9.7–11.7% | 9.4–11.8% | 9.2–11.9% | 8.7–12.0% |
| 12–18 May 2015 | Dedicated RTBf–La Libre Belgique |
10.5% | 9.3–11.2% | 9.1–11.4% | 8.8–11.5% | 8.4–11.5% |
| 5 March–9 May 2015 | Dedicated La Libre Belgique–RTBf |
3.2% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 20 April–3 May 2015 | TNS De Standaard–VRT |
14.3% | 13.0–15.8% | 12.7–16.2% | 12.3–16.6% | 11.7–17.4% |
| 20–24 April 2015 | Ipsos RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws |
10.4% | 9.4–11.1% | 9.2–11.2% | 8.9–11.3% | 8.5–11.4% |
| 5–9 March 2015 | Dedicated RTBf–La Libre Belgique |
10.4% | 8.5–9.4% | 8.3–9.4% | 8.2–9.4% | 7.8–9.4% |
| 23–28 January 2015 | Ipsos RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws |
9.8% | 8.9–10.4% | 8.7–10.6% | 8.5–10.6% | 8.0–10.7% |
| 5–11 January 2015 | Ipsos RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws |
10.5% | 9.5–11.2% | 9.3–11.3% | 9.1–11.4% | 8.7–11.4% |
| 4–5 December 2014 | AQ Rate Het Laatste Nieuws |
16.0% | 14.4–17.8% | 14.0–18.3% | 13.6–18.7% | 12.9–19.6% |
| 27 November–1 December 2014 | Dedicated RTBf–La Libre Belgique |
10.1% | 9.0–10.9% | 8.8–11.0% | 8.5–11.1% | 8.1–11.2% |
| 9–10 October 2014 | AQ Rate Het Laatste Nieuws |
18.0% | 16.3–19.8% | 15.9–20.3% | 15.5–20.8% | 14.7–21.7% |
| 22 September–3 October 2014 | TNS De Standaard–VRT |
15.7% | 14.4–17.3% | 14.0–17.7% | 13.6–18.1% | 13.0–18.9% |
| 5–9 September 2014 | Dedicated RTBf–La Libre Belgique |
10.0% | 9.0–10.8% | 8.7–10.9% | 8.5–11.0% | 8.0–11.1% |
| 1–31 July 2014 | AQ Rate Het Laatste Nieuws |
14.5% | 13.1–16.2% | 12.7–16.6% | 12.4–17.0% | 11.7–17.8% |
Probability Mass Function
The following table shows the probability mass function per percentage block of voting intentions for the poll average for sp.a.
| Voting Intentions | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3.5–4.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 4.5–5.5% | 0.8% | 100% | |
| 5.5–6.5% | 21% | 99.2% | |
| 6.5–7.5% | 100% | 78% | Median |
| 7.5–8.5% | 100% | 0% | |
| 8.5–9.5% | 67% | 0% | Last Result |
| 9.5–10.5% | 4% | 0% |
Seats
Last result: 13 seats (General Election of 25 May 2014)
Confidence Intervals
| Period | Polling firm/Commissioner(s) | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N/A | Poll Average | 10 | 8–12 | 8–13 | 8–14 | 6–15 |
| 6–14 May 2019 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
9 | 8–11 | 8–11 | 7–11 | 6–13 |
| 25 March–14 April 2019 | TNS De Standaard, La Libre Belgique, RTBf and VRT |
11 | 10–13 | 9–14 | 9–14 | 9–15 |
| 5–11 February 2019 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
9 | 9–11 | 8–11 | 8–12 | 6–13 |
| 13–17 December 2018 | Ipsos Het Nieuwsblad |
8 | 6–9 | 6–10 | 6–11 | 5–11 |
| 19 November–8 December 2018 | TNS De Standaard, La Libre Belgique, RTBf and VRT |
8 | 5–9 | 5–9 | 5–9 | 5–9 |
| 27 November–3 December 2018 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
11 | 9–12 | 9–13 | 9–13 | 8–14 |
| 20–27 September 2018 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
11 | 9–13 | 9–13 | 9–13 | 8–14 |
| 29 May–6 June 2018 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
11 | 9–12 | 9–13 | 9–13 | 8–14 |
| 26 February–17 March 2018 | TNS De Standaard–VRT–RTBf–La Libre Belgique |
8 | 6–9 | 6–9 | 6–10 | 5–10 |
| 27 February–6 March 2018 | Ipsos RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws |
11 | 10–13 | 9–14 | 9–15 | 9–15 |
| 27 November–4 December 2017 | Ipsos RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws |
10 | 9–11 | 8–11 | 7–12 | 6–13 |
| 11 September–5 October 2017 | TNS De Standaard–VRT–RTBf–La Libre Belgique |
9 | 8–11 | 8–11 | 8–11 | 6–13 |
| 25 August–3 September 2017 | Ipsos RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws |
11 | 9–13 | 9–13 | 9–13 | 9–14 |
| 23–27 June 2017 | Dedicated MR |
8 | 6–9 | 6–10 | 5–11 | 5–11 |
| 27 March–11 April 2017 | TNS De Standaard–VRT |
12 | 10–13 | 9–14 | 9–14 | 9–15 |
| 16–20 March 2017 | Dedicated RTBf–La Libre Belgique |
11 | 10–13 | 9–14 | 9–15 | 9–15 |
| 16–17 February 2017 | iVox Sudpresse |
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| 10–17 January 2017 | Ipsos RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws |
12 | 11–14 | 10–14 | 9–15 | 9–15 |
| 24–28 November 2016 | Dedicated RTBf–La Libre Belgique |
13 | 10–13 | 9–14 | 9–15 | 9–16 |
| 14 September–3 October 2016 | TNS De Standaard–VRT |
14 | 13–16 | 13–17 | 13–17 | 12–18 |
| 19–25 September 2016 | Ipsos RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws |
13 | 11–14 | 11–15 | 10–15 | 9–16 |
| 2–6 September 2016 | Dedicated RTBf–La Libre Belgique |
14 | 13–16 | 12–17 | 12–17 | 10–18 |
| 6–12 May 2016 | Ipsos RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws |
15 | 13–17 | 13–17 | 13–18 | 12–18 |
| 31 March–4 April 2016 | Dedicated RTBf–La Libre Belgique |
13 | 11–15 | 11–15 | 10–16 | 9–18 |
| 22 February–9 March 2016 | TNS De Standaard–VRT |
13 | 12–15 | 12–15 | 11–16 | 10–17 |
| 15–20 January 2016 | Ipsos RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws |
13 | 13–15 | 13–16 | 12–17 | 11–18 |
| 3–7 December 2015 | Dedicated RTBf–La Libre Belgique |
13 | 11–14 | 11–15 | 10–15 | 9–16 |
| 28 September–4 October 2015 | Ipsos RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws |
13 | 13–15 | 12–15 | 11–15 | 10–17 |
| 22 September–2 October 2015 | TNS De Standaard–VRT |
13 | 11–13 | 10–14 | 9–15 | 9–15 |
| 9–14 September 2015 | Dedicated RTBf–La Libre Belgique |
15 | 13–17 | 13–18 | 13–18 | 12–19 |
| 12–18 May 2015 | Dedicated RTBf–La Libre Belgique |
14 | 13–16 | 13–17 | 12–18 | 11–18 |
| 5 March–9 May 2015 | Dedicated La Libre Belgique–RTBf |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 20 April–3 May 2015 | TNS De Standaard–VRT |
13 | 11–14 | 10–15 | 10–15 | 9–16 |
| 20–24 April 2015 | Ipsos RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws |
14 | 13–17 | 13–17 | 13–17 | 12–18 |
| 5–9 March 2015 | Dedicated RTBf–La Libre Belgique |
15 | 13–18 | 13–18 | 13–18 | 12–19 |
| 23–28 January 2015 | Ipsos RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws |
13 | 13–15 | 12–15 | 11–16 | 10–17 |
| 5–11 January 2015 | Ipsos RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws |
14 | 13–17 | 13–17 | 13–18 | 12–18 |
| 4–5 December 2014 | AQ Rate Het Laatste Nieuws |
15 | 13–18 | 13–18 | 13–18 | 12–19 |
| 27 November–1 December 2014 | Dedicated RTBf–La Libre Belgique |
14 | 13–16 | 13–17 | 11–17 | 10–18 |
| 9–10 October 2014 | AQ Rate Het Laatste Nieuws |
17 | 15–19 | 14–19 | 14–20 | 13–21 |
| 22 September–3 October 2014 | TNS De Standaard–VRT |
14 | 13–16 | 13–17 | 13–17 | 12–18 |
| 5–9 September 2014 | Dedicated RTBf–La Libre Belgique |
13 | 12–15 | 12–17 | 11–17 | 10–18 |
| 1–31 July 2014 | AQ Rate Het Laatste Nieuws |
13 | 12–15 | 11–15 | 11–16 | 9–17 |
Probability Mass Function
The following table shows the probability mass function per seat for the poll average for sp.a.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 0.6% | 100% | |
| 7 | 1.1% | 99.4% | |
| 8 | 15% | 98% | |
| 9 | 23% | 84% | |
| 10 | 17% | 61% | Median |
| 11 | 29% | 44% | |
| 12 | 7% | 15% | |
| 13 | 4% | 8% | Last Result |
| 14 | 3% | 4% | |
| 15 | 0.6% | 0.6% | |
| 16 | 0% | 0% |