Groen
Voting Intentions
Last result: 5.3% (General Election of 25 May 2014)
Confidence Intervals
| Period | Polling firm/Commissioner(s) | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N/A | Poll Average | 8.1% | 6.9–9.3% | 6.7–9.4% | 6.5–9.5% | 6.1–9.6% |
| 6–14 May 2019 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
7.5% | 6.7–8.1% | 6.5–8.2% | 6.3–8.2% | 5.9–8.3% |
| 25 March–14 April 2019 | TNS De Standaard, La Libre Belgique, RTBf and VRT |
9.0% | 8.2–9.7% | 7.9–9.8% | 7.7–9.9% | 7.4–10.0% |
| 5–11 February 2019 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
9.6% | 8.7–10.3% | 8.5–10.4% | 8.3–10.5% | 7.9–10.6% |
| 13–17 December 2018 | Ipsos Het Nieuwsblad |
13.8% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 19 November–8 December 2018 | TNS De Standaard, La Libre Belgique, RTBf and VRT |
9.9% | 9.0–10.5% | 8.8–10.7% | 8.6–10.8% | 8.2–10.8% |
| 27 November–3 December 2018 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
7.6% | 6.8–8.2% | 6.6–8.3% | 6.4–8.3% | 6.0–8.4% |
| 20–27 September 2018 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
8.7% | 7.9–9.3% | 7.6–9.5% | 7.4–9.5% | 7.1–9.6% |
| 29 May–6 June 2018 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
7.7% | 6.9–8.3% | 6.7–8.4% | 6.5–8.4% | 6.1–8.5% |
| 26 February–17 March 2018 | TNS De Standaard–VRT–RTBf–La Libre Belgique |
8.5% | 7.7–9.1% | 7.4–9.3% | 7.2–9.3% | 6.9–9.4% |
| 27 February–6 March 2018 | Ipsos RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws |
6.4% | 5.7–7.0% | 5.5–7.1% | 5.3–7.2% | 5.0–7.2% |
| 27 November–4 December 2017 | Ipsos RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws |
8.1% | 7.3–8.8% | 7.1–8.9% | 6.9–8.9% | 6.6–9.0% |
| 11 September–5 October 2017 | TNS De Standaard–VRT–RTBf–La Libre Belgique |
8.6% | 7.7–9.2% | 7.5–9.3% | 7.3–9.4% | 7.0–9.4% |
| 25 August–3 September 2017 | Ipsos RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws |
8.3% | 7.5–8.9% | 7.2–9.1% | 7.1–9.1% | 6.7–9.2% |
| 23–27 June 2017 | Dedicated MR |
7.7% | 6.7–8.5% | 6.4–8.6% | 6.2–8.7% | 5.8–8.8% |
| 27 March–11 April 2017 | TNS De Standaard–VRT |
14.7% | 13.3–16.1% | 12.9–16.6% | 12.6–17.0% | 12.0–17.7% |
| 16–20 March 2017 | Dedicated RTBf–La Libre Belgique |
10.2% | 9.0–11.6% | 8.7–12.0% | 8.4–12.3% | 7.8–12.8% |
| 16–17 February 2017 | iVox Sudpresse |
0.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 10–17 January 2017 | Ipsos RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws |
7.6% | 6.8–8.2% | 6.5–8.3% | 6.4–8.4% | 6.0–8.4% |
| 24–28 November 2016 | Dedicated RTBf–La Libre Belgique |
11.3% | 10.0–12.8% | 9.6–13.2% | 9.3–13.5% | 8.7–14.0% |
| 14 September–3 October 2016 | TNS De Standaard–VRT |
13.3% | 12.0–14.8% | 11.7–15.2% | 11.4–15.6% | 10.8–16.3% |
| 19–25 September 2016 | Ipsos RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws |
6.6% | 5.8–7.2% | 5.7–7.3% | 5.5–7.4% | 5.1–7.4% |
| 2–6 September 2016 | Dedicated RTBf–La Libre Belgique |
6.2% | 5.3–6.8% | 5.1–6.9% | 4.9–7.0% | 4.6–7.1% |
| 6–12 May 2016 | Ipsos RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws |
6.9% | 6.1–7.4% | 5.9–7.6% | 5.8–7.6% | 5.4–7.7% |
| 31 March–4 April 2016 | Dedicated RTBf–La Libre Belgique |
6.3% | 5.5–7.0% | 5.3–7.1% | 5.1–7.2% | 4.7–7.3% |
| 22 February–9 March 2016 | TNS De Standaard–VRT |
11.6% | 10.4–13.0% | 10.1–13.4% | 9.8–13.8% | 9.3–14.5% |
| 15–20 January 2016 | Ipsos RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws |
6.3% | 5.6–6.9% | 5.4–7.0% | 5.3–7.1% | 5.0–7.1% |
| 3–7 December 2015 | Dedicated RTBf–La Libre Belgique |
7.7% | 6.9–8.6% | 6.7–8.8% | 6.5–9.0% | 6.1–9.1% |
| 28 September–4 October 2015 | Ipsos RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws |
6.0% | 5.3–6.7% | 5.1–6.9% | 4.9–7.0% | 4.6–7.1% |
| 22 September–2 October 2015 | TNS De Standaard–VRT |
9.9% | 8.8–11.2% | 8.5–11.6% | 8.2–11.9% | 7.7–12.6% |
| 9–14 September 2015 | Dedicated RTBf–La Libre Belgique |
6.7% | 5.8–7.6% | 5.6–7.8% | 5.4–8.0% | 5.0–8.1% |
| 12–18 May 2015 | Dedicated RTBf–La Libre Belgique |
6.7% | 5.8–7.5% | 5.6–7.8% | 5.4–7.9% | 5.0–8.0% |
| 5 March–9 May 2015 | Dedicated La Libre Belgique–RTBf |
0.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 20 April–3 May 2015 | TNS De Standaard–VRT |
11.6% | 10.4–13.0% | 10.1–13.4% | 9.8–13.7% | 9.3–14.4% |
| 20–24 April 2015 | Ipsos RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws |
7.1% | 6.3–8.0% | 6.1–8.2% | 5.9–8.3% | 5.6–8.5% |
| 5–9 March 2015 | Dedicated RTBf–La Libre Belgique |
5.9% | 5.1–6.6% | 4.9–6.7% | 4.7–6.8% | 4.3–6.9% |
| 23–28 January 2015 | Ipsos RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws |
6.8% | 6.1–7.6% | 5.9–7.8% | 5.7–7.9% | 5.4–8.0% |
| 5–11 January 2015 | Ipsos RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws |
6.9% | 6.1–7.7% | 5.9–7.9% | 5.8–8.0% | 5.4–8.1% |
| 4–5 December 2014 | AQ Rate Het Laatste Nieuws |
14.0% | 12.5–15.7% | 12.1–16.1% | 11.7–16.6% | 11.1–17.4% |
| 27 November–1 December 2014 | Dedicated RTBf–La Libre Belgique |
6.8% | 6.0–7.7% | 5.7–7.9% | 5.5–8.1% | 5.1–8.2% |
| 9–10 October 2014 | AQ Rate Het Laatste Nieuws |
9.0% | 7.8–10.4% | 7.5–10.8% | 7.2–11.2% | 6.7–11.9% |
| 22 September–3 October 2014 | TNS De Standaard–VRT |
9.8% | 8.7–11.1% | 8.4–11.4% | 8.1–11.7% | 7.6–12.4% |
| 5–9 September 2014 | Dedicated RTBf–La Libre Belgique |
6.4% | 5.6–7.2% | 5.3–7.4% | 5.2–7.6% | 4.8–7.7% |
| 1–31 July 2014 | AQ Rate Het Laatste Nieuws |
9.0% | 7.9–10.3% | 7.5–10.7% | 7.3–11.1% | 6.8–11.7% |
Probability Mass Function
The following table shows the probability mass function per percentage block of voting intentions for the poll average for Groen.
| Voting Intentions | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4.5–5.5% | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 5.5–6.5% | 3% | 100% | |
| 6.5–7.5% | 27% | 97% | |
| 7.5–8.5% | 35% | 70% | Median |
| 8.5–9.5% | 32% | 35% | |
| 9.5–10.5% | 13% | 2% | |
| 10.5–11.5% | 1.1% | 0% |
Seats
Last result: 6 seats (General Election of 25 May 2014)
Confidence Intervals
| Period | Polling firm/Commissioner(s) | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N/A | Poll Average | 12 | 10–13 | 10–15 | 9–15 | 7–17 |
| 6–14 May 2019 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
11 | 10–12 | 9–12 | 8–12 | 6–13 |
| 25 March–14 April 2019 | TNS De Standaard, La Libre Belgique, RTBf and VRT |
12 | 11–15 | 11–15 | 11–16 | 10–17 |
| 5–11 February 2019 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
14 | 12–16 | 12–17 | 12–17 | 11–17 |
| 13–17 December 2018 | Ipsos Het Nieuwsblad |
12 | 11–13 | 10–14 | 10–15 | 10–16 |
| 19 November–8 December 2018 | TNS De Standaard, La Libre Belgique, RTBf and VRT |
13 | 12–16 | 12–16 | 12–17 | 12–18 |
| 27 November–3 December 2018 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
11 | 10–12 | 10–12 | 9–12 | 7–13 |
| 20–27 September 2018 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
12 | 11–14 | 11–15 | 11–16 | 10–17 |
| 29 May–6 June 2018 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
11 | 10–12 | 10–12 | 10–13 | 9–14 |
| 26 February–17 March 2018 | TNS De Standaard–VRT–RTBf–La Libre Belgique |
12 | 11–13 | 11–13 | 11–14 | 10–15 |
| 27 February–6 March 2018 | Ipsos RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws |
10 | 7–10 | 6–11 | 6–11 | 6–12 |
| 27 November–4 December 2017 | Ipsos RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws |
12 | 11–13 | 10–14 | 10–14 | 10–15 |
| 11 September–5 October 2017 | TNS De Standaard–VRT–RTBf–La Libre Belgique |
12 | 11–13 | 11–14 | 10–14 | 10–16 |
| 25 August–3 September 2017 | Ipsos RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws |
12 | 11–13 | 11–14 | 10–14 | 9–16 |
| 23–27 June 2017 | Dedicated MR |
11 | 10–12 | 10–13 | 9–13 | 7–15 |
| 27 March–11 April 2017 | TNS De Standaard–VRT |
12 | 12–14 | 11–15 | 11–16 | 10–17 |
| 16–20 March 2017 | Dedicated RTBf–La Libre Belgique |
10 | 8–11 | 8–12 | 7–12 | 6–12 |
| 16–17 February 2017 | iVox Sudpresse |
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| 10–17 January 2017 | Ipsos RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws |
11 | 10–12 | 10–12 | 9–12 | 8–13 |
| 24–28 November 2016 | Dedicated RTBf–La Libre Belgique |
12 | 10–12 | 9–13 | 9–13 | 8–16 |
| 14 September–3 October 2016 | TNS De Standaard–VRT |
12 | 11–12 | 10–12 | 10–13 | 9–15 |
| 19–25 September 2016 | Ipsos RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws |
10 | 8–11 | 7–12 | 6–12 | 6–12 |
| 2–6 September 2016 | Dedicated RTBf–La Libre Belgique |
9 | 6–10 | 6–11 | 6–12 | 5–12 |
| 6–12 May 2016 | Ipsos RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws |
10 | 8–12 | 8–12 | 8–12 | 7–12 |
| 31 March–4 April 2016 | Dedicated RTBf–La Libre Belgique |
9 | 6–11 | 6–11 | 6–12 | 5–12 |
| 22 February–9 March 2016 | TNS De Standaard–VRT |
10 | 8–12 | 8–12 | 8–12 | 7–12 |
| 15–20 January 2016 | Ipsos RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws |
9 | 8–11 | 6–11 | 6–12 | 6–12 |
| 3–7 December 2015 | Dedicated RTBf–La Libre Belgique |
10 | 9–12 | 8–12 | 8–12 | 7–12 |
| 28 September–4 October 2015 | Ipsos RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws |
7 | 6–9 | 5–9 | 5–10 | 5–11 |
| 22 September–2 October 2015 | TNS De Standaard–VRT |
8 | 6–10 | 6–10 | 6–11 | 5–12 |
| 9–14 September 2015 | Dedicated RTBf–La Libre Belgique |
9 | 6–10 | 6–11 | 6–12 | 5–12 |
| 12–18 May 2015 | Dedicated RTBf–La Libre Belgique |
8 | 6–10 | 6–11 | 6–12 | 5–12 |
| 5 March–9 May 2015 | Dedicated La Libre Belgique–RTBf |
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| 20 April–3 May 2015 | TNS De Standaard–VRT |
10 | 8–12 | 8–12 | 8–12 | 6–12 |
| 20–24 April 2015 | Ipsos RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws |
10 | 8–12 | 7–12 | 7–12 | 6–12 |
| 5–9 March 2015 | Dedicated RTBf–La Libre Belgique |
8 | 6–10 | 5–10 | 5–11 | 5–12 |
| 23–28 January 2015 | Ipsos RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws |
8 | 7–10 | 6–11 | 6–11 | 6–12 |
| 5–11 January 2015 | Ipsos RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws |
9 | 7–11 | 7–12 | 6–12 | 6–12 |
| 4–5 December 2014 | AQ Rate Het Laatste Nieuws |
12 | 12–15 | 11–16 | 11–16 | 10–16 |
| 27 November–1 December 2014 | Dedicated RTBf–La Libre Belgique |
9 | 7–11 | 6–11 | 6–12 | 6–12 |
| 9–10 October 2014 | AQ Rate Het Laatste Nieuws |
6 | 5–8 | 5–9 | 5–10 | 5–11 |
| 22 September–3 October 2014 | TNS De Standaard–VRT |
8 | 6–9 | 6–10 | 6–10 | 5–12 |
| 5–9 September 2014 | Dedicated RTBf–La Libre Belgique |
8 | 6–10 | 6–10 | 5–10 | 5–12 |
| 1–31 July 2014 | AQ Rate Het Laatste Nieuws |
6 | 5–9 | 5–9 | 5–10 | 5–10 |
Probability Mass Function
The following table shows the probability mass function per seat for the poll average for Groen.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 0.3% | 100% | Last Result |
| 7 | 0.4% | 99.7% | |
| 8 | 0.7% | 99.2% | |
| 9 | 1.4% | 98.6% | |
| 10 | 15% | 97% | |
| 11 | 30% | 82% | |
| 12 | 38% | 52% | Median |
| 13 | 5% | 14% | |
| 14 | 3% | 8% | |
| 15 | 3% | 5% | |
| 16 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 17 | 0.9% | 0.9% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0% |