Vlaams Belang
Voting Intentions
Last result: 3.7% (General Election of 25 May 2014)
Confidence Intervals
| Period | Polling firm/Commissioner(s) | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N/A | Poll Average | 5.3% | 4.9–5.5% | 4.7–5.5% | 4.6–5.5% | 4.3–5.6% |
| 6–14 May 2019 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
9.3% | 7.9–8.5% | 7.7–8.6% | 7.6–8.6% | 7.3–8.6% |
| 25 March–14 April 2019 | TNS De Standaard, La Libre Belgique, RTBf and VRT |
5.9% | 4.7–5.3% | 4.6–5.3% | 4.5–5.3% | 4.2–5.3% |
| 5–11 February 2019 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
7.0% | 5.8–6.4% | 5.6–6.4% | 5.5–6.4% | 5.2–6.4% |
| 13–17 December 2018 | Ipsos Het Nieuwsblad |
12.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 19 November–8 December 2018 | TNS De Standaard, La Libre Belgique, RTBf and VRT |
4.7% | 3.7–4.1% | 3.6–4.2% | 3.5–4.2% | 3.3–4.2% |
| 27 November–3 December 2018 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
7.4% | 6.1–6.7% | 5.9–6.7% | 5.8–6.7% | 5.5–6.7% |
| 20–27 September 2018 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
7.1% | 5.9–6.5% | 5.7–6.5% | 5.6–6.5% | 5.3–6.5% |
| 29 May–6 June 2018 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
6.2% | 5.0–5.5% | 4.9–5.5% | 4.7–5.6% | 4.5–5.6% |
| 26 February–17 March 2018 | TNS De Standaard–VRT–RTBf–La Libre Belgique |
4.6% | 3.6–4.1% | 3.5–4.1% | 3.4–4.1% | 3.2–4.1% |
| 27 February–6 March 2018 | Ipsos RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws |
5.6% | 4.5–5.0% | 4.4–5.1% | 4.3–5.1% | 4.0–5.1% |
| 27 November–4 December 2017 | Ipsos RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws |
6.5% | 5.3–5.8% | 5.1–5.9% | 5.0–5.9% | 4.8–5.9% |
| 11 September–5 October 2017 | TNS De Standaard–VRT–RTBf–La Libre Belgique |
4.1% | 3.1–3.6% | 3.0–3.6% | 2.9–3.6% | 2.7–3.6% |
| 25 August–3 September 2017 | Ipsos RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws |
5.0% | 3.9–4.4% | 3.8–4.5% | 3.7–4.5% | 3.5–4.5% |
| 23–27 June 2017 | Dedicated MR |
7.2% | 6.3–8.0% | 6.0–8.1% | 5.8–8.2% | 5.4–8.3% |
| 27 March–11 April 2017 | TNS De Standaard–VRT |
7.8% | 6.8–8.9% | 6.5–9.3% | 6.3–9.6% | 5.8–10.2% |
| 16–20 March 2017 | Dedicated RTBf–La Libre Belgique |
10.8% | 8.9–10.0% | 8.7–10.1% | 8.4–10.1% | 8.0–10.1% |
| 16–17 February 2017 | iVox Sudpresse |
0.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 10–17 January 2017 | Ipsos RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws |
6.5% | 5.2–5.8% | 5.1–5.8% | 5.0–5.9% | 4.7–5.9% |
| 24–28 November 2016 | Dedicated RTBf–La Libre Belgique |
11.1% | 9.1–10.3% | 8.8–10.3% | 8.6–10.3% | 8.1–10.3% |
| 14 September–3 October 2016 | TNS De Standaard–VRT |
8.1% | 7.1–9.3% | 6.8–9.6% | 6.6–9.9% | 6.1–10.5% |
| 19–25 September 2016 | Ipsos RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws |
7.4% | 6.6–8.0% | 6.4–8.1% | 6.2–8.2% | 5.9–8.3% |
| 2–6 September 2016 | Dedicated RTBf–La Libre Belgique |
8.3% | 6.7–7.4% | 6.6–7.5% | 6.4–7.5% | 6.1–7.5% |
| 6–12 May 2016 | Ipsos RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws |
8.6% | 7.7–9.2% | 7.5–9.3% | 7.3–9.4% | 7.0–9.4% |
| 31 March–4 April 2016 | Dedicated RTBf–La Libre Belgique |
7.8% | 6.3–7.0% | 6.1–7.0% | 6.0–7.0% | 5.7–7.0% |
| 22 February–9 March 2016 | TNS De Standaard–VRT |
8.1% | 7.1–9.3% | 6.8–9.6% | 6.5–9.9% | 6.1–10.5% |
| 15–20 January 2016 | Ipsos RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws |
7.2% | 6.4–7.8% | 6.2–7.9% | 6.0–7.9% | 5.7–8.0% |
| 3–7 December 2015 | Dedicated RTBf–La Libre Belgique |
8.0% | 7.1–8.8% | 6.9–9.0% | 6.7–9.1% | 6.3–9.3% |
| 28 September–4 October 2015 | Ipsos RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws |
7.0% | 6.2–7.8% | 6.0–8.0% | 5.8–8.1% | 5.5–8.2% |
| 22 September–2 October 2015 | TNS De Standaard–VRT |
7.0% | 6.0–8.1% | 5.8–8.4% | 5.6–8.7% | 5.1–9.3% |
| 9–14 September 2015 | Dedicated RTBf–La Libre Belgique |
6.5% | 5.6–7.3% | 5.4–7.5% | 5.2–7.7% | 4.8–7.8% |
| 12–18 May 2015 | Dedicated RTBf–La Libre Belgique |
5.3% | 4.5–6.0% | 4.3–6.2% | 4.1–6.3% | 3.8–6.4% |
| 5 March–9 May 2015 | Dedicated La Libre Belgique–RTBf |
0.8% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 20 April–3 May 2015 | TNS De Standaard–VRT |
5.8% | 5.0–6.9% | 4.7–7.2% | 4.5–7.4% | 4.2–7.9% |
| 20–24 April 2015 | Ipsos RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws |
5.3% | 4.6–6.0% | 4.4–6.1% | 4.3–6.2% | 4.0–6.3% |
| 5–9 March 2015 | Dedicated RTBf–La Libre Belgique |
4.7% | 3.4–4.0% | 3.3–4.0% | 3.2–4.0% | 2.9–4.0% |
| 23–28 January 2015 | Ipsos RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws |
5.1% | 4.4–5.7% | 4.2–5.8% | 4.1–5.9% | 3.8–6.0% |
| 5–11 January 2015 | Ipsos RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws |
4.5% | 3.9–5.1% | 3.8–5.2% | 3.6–5.3% | 3.3–5.4% |
| 4–5 December 2014 | AQ Rate Het Laatste Nieuws |
6.0% | 5.1–7.3% | 4.8–7.6% | 4.6–7.9% | 4.2–8.6% |
| 27 November–1 December 2014 | Dedicated RTBf–La Libre Belgique |
3.8% | 3.1–4.4% | 3.0–4.5% | 2.8–4.6% | 2.6–4.6% |
| 9–10 October 2014 | AQ Rate Het Laatste Nieuws |
8.0% | 6.9–9.4% | 6.6–9.7% | 6.3–10.1% | 5.8–10.8% |
| 22 September–3 October 2014 | TNS De Standaard–VRT |
6.5% | 5.6–7.5% | 5.3–7.9% | 5.1–8.1% | 4.7–8.7% |
| 5–9 September 2014 | Dedicated RTBf–La Libre Belgique |
3.7% | 3.1–4.3% | 2.9–4.4% | 2.8–4.5% | 2.5–4.5% |
| 1–31 July 2014 | AQ Rate Het Laatste Nieuws |
5.8% | 4.9–6.9% | 4.7–7.2% | 4.4–7.5% | 4.0–8.1% |
Probability Mass Function
The following table shows the probability mass function per percentage block of voting intentions for the poll average for Vlaams Belang.
| Voting Intentions | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.5–3.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 3.5–4.5% | 2% | 100% | Last Result |
| 4.5–5.5% | 96% | 98% | Median |
| 5.5–6.5% | 100% | 2% | |
| 6.5–7.5% | 48% | 0% | |
| 7.5–8.5% | 45% | 0% | |
| 8.5–9.5% | 100% | 0% | |
| 9.5–10.5% | 100% | 0% | |
| 10.5–11.5% | 17% | 0% | |
| 11.5–12.5% | 0.5% | 0% |
Seats
Last result: 3 seats (General Election of 25 May 2014)
Confidence Intervals
| Period | Polling firm/Commissioner(s) | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N/A | Poll Average | 10 | 7–14 | 7–15 | 6–15 | 6–16 |
| 6–14 May 2019 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
13 | 12–15 | 12–15 | 11–15 | 9–16 |
| 25 March–14 April 2019 | TNS De Standaard, La Libre Belgique, RTBf and VRT |
7 | 7–8 | 6–8 | 6–8 | 5–10 |
| 5–11 February 2019 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
8 | 8–11 | 8–12 | 7–12 | 7–13 |
| 13–17 December 2018 | Ipsos Het Nieuwsblad |
10 | 8–12 | 8–13 | 8–13 | 7–13 |
| 19 November–8 December 2018 | TNS De Standaard, La Libre Belgique, RTBf and VRT |
6 | 5–7 | 5–8 | 4–8 | 2–8 |
| 27 November–3 December 2018 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
9 | 8–12 | 8–12 | 8–13 | 7–13 |
| 20–27 September 2018 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
9 | 8–12 | 8–12 | 8–12 | 7–13 |
| 29 May–6 June 2018 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
8 | 7–8 | 7–9 | 7–10 | 6–12 |
| 26 February–17 March 2018 | TNS De Standaard–VRT–RTBf–La Libre Belgique |
6 | 5–7 | 4–7 | 3–7 | 2–8 |
| 27 February–6 March 2018 | Ipsos RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws |
7 | 7–8 | 6–8 | 6–8 | 5–9 |
| 27 November–4 December 2017 | Ipsos RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws |
8 | 7–10 | 7–11 | 7–11 | 7–12 |
| 11 September–5 October 2017 | TNS De Standaard–VRT–RTBf–La Libre Belgique |
5 | 2–6 | 2–6 | 2–7 | 2–7 |
| 25 August–3 September 2017 | Ipsos RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws |
7 | 5–7 | 5–8 | 5–8 | 3–8 |
| 23–27 June 2017 | Dedicated MR |
9 | 8–12 | 8–13 | 7–13 | 7–13 |
| 27 March–11 April 2017 | TNS De Standaard–VRT |
6 | 5–7 | 5–8 | 5–8 | 2–8 |
| 16–20 March 2017 | Dedicated RTBf–La Libre Belgique |
11 | 8–12 | 8–12 | 8–13 | 7–13 |
| 16–17 February 2017 | iVox Sudpresse |
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| 10–17 January 2017 | Ipsos RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws |
8 | 7–10 | 7–11 | 7–12 | 7–12 |
| 24–28 November 2016 | Dedicated RTBf–La Libre Belgique |
12 | 8–13 | 8–13 | 8–14 | 8–15 |
| 14 September–3 October 2016 | TNS De Standaard–VRT |
7 | 5–8 | 5–8 | 5–8 | 3–8 |
| 19–25 September 2016 | Ipsos RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws |
11 | 8–12 | 8–13 | 8–13 | 8–14 |
| 2–6 September 2016 | Dedicated RTBf–La Libre Belgique |
12 | 10–14 | 8–14 | 8–15 | 8–15 |
| 6–12 May 2016 | Ipsos RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws |
13 | 12–15 | 12–15 | 11–15 | 9–15 |
| 31 March–4 April 2016 | Dedicated RTBf–La Libre Belgique |
12 | 8–13 | 8–13 | 8–14 | 8–15 |
| 22 February–9 March 2016 | TNS De Standaard–VRT |
7 | 5–8 | 5–8 | 5–8 | 3–8 |
| 15–20 January 2016 | Ipsos RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws |
9 | 8–12 | 8–12 | 8–13 | 8–13 |
| 3–7 December 2015 | Dedicated RTBf–La Libre Belgique |
10 | 8–12 | 8–12 | 8–13 | 8–13 |
| 28 September–4 October 2015 | Ipsos RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws |
8 | 8–10 | 8–11 | 8–12 | 7–12 |
| 22 September–2 October 2015 | TNS De Standaard–VRT |
5 | 4–7 | 2–7 | 2–7 | 2–8 |
| 9–14 September 2015 | Dedicated RTBf–La Libre Belgique |
8 | 7–8 | 7–9 | 6–10 | 6–12 |
| 12–18 May 2015 | Dedicated RTBf–La Libre Belgique |
7 | 5–8 | 5–8 | 4–8 | 2–8 |
| 5 March–9 May 2015 | Dedicated La Libre Belgique–RTBf |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 20 April–3 May 2015 | TNS De Standaard–VRT |
2 | 2–5 | 1–5 | 1–5 | 0–6 |
| 20–24 April 2015 | Ipsos RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws |
7 | 6–8 | 5–8 | 5–8 | 3–8 |
| 5–9 March 2015 | Dedicated RTBf–La Libre Belgique |
6 | 4–8 | 3–8 | 2–8 | 2–8 |
| 23–28 January 2015 | Ipsos RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws |
6 | 5–8 | 5–8 | 4–8 | 2–8 |
| 5–11 January 2015 | Ipsos RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws |
5 | 3–7 | 3–7 | 2–8 | 2–8 |
| 4–5 December 2014 | AQ Rate Het Laatste Nieuws |
4 | 2–6 | 2–7 | 2–7 | 1–7 |
| 27 November–1 December 2014 | Dedicated RTBf–La Libre Belgique |
2 | 2–5 | 1–6 | 1–6 | 0–7 |
| 9–10 October 2014 | AQ Rate Het Laatste Nieuws |
7 | 5–8 | 5–8 | 5–8 | 3–8 |
| 22 September–3 October 2014 | TNS De Standaard–VRT |
5 | 2–6 | 2–6 | 2–7 | 1–7 |
| 5–9 September 2014 | Dedicated RTBf–La Libre Belgique |
3 | 2–5 | 1–6 | 0–6 | 0–7 |
| 1–31 July 2014 | AQ Rate Het Laatste Nieuws |
3 | 2–5 | 1–6 | 1–6 | 0–7 |
Probability Mass Function
The following table shows the probability mass function per seat for the poll average for Vlaams Belang.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 6 | 3% | 99.7% | |
| 7 | 25% | 97% | |
| 8 | 20% | 71% | |
| 9 | 1.1% | 51% | |
| 10 | 0.7% | 50% | Median |
| 11 | 1.1% | 49% | |
| 12 | 7% | 48% | |
| 13 | 28% | 42% | |
| 14 | 5% | 14% | |
| 15 | 9% | 9% | |
| 16 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 17 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0% |