Opinion Poll by TNS for De Standaard–VRT, 22 September–3 October 2014

Areas included: Flanders

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
N-VA 20.3% 29.9% 28.1–31.8% 27.6–32.3% 27.2–32.8% 26.3–33.7%
CD&V 11.6% 20.0% 18.5–21.7% 18.1–22.2% 17.7–22.6% 17.0–23.4%
sp.a 8.8% 15.7% 14.4–17.3% 14.0–17.7% 13.6–18.1% 13.0–18.9%
Open Vld 9.8% 14.4% 13.1–15.9% 12.7–16.3% 12.4–16.7% 11.7–17.4%
Groen 5.3% 9.8% 8.7–11.1% 8.4–11.4% 8.1–11.7% 7.6–12.4%
Vlaams Belang 3.7% 6.5% 5.6–7.5% 5.3–7.9% 5.1–8.1% 4.7–8.7%
PVDA 1.8% 3.2% 2.6–4.0% 2.4–4.3% 2.3–4.5% 2.0–4.9%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
N-VA 33 30 27–31 26–32 26–32 25–34
CD&V 18 18 18–21 18–22 17–22 15–23
sp.a 13 14 13–16 13–17 13–17 12–18
Open Vld 14 13 12–14 11–15 11–16 11–17
Groen 6 8 6–9 6–10 6–10 5–12
Vlaams Belang 3 5 2–6 2–6 2–7 1–7
PVDA 0 0 0 0 0 0

N-VA

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the N-VA page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.2% 100%  
25 0.5% 99.8%  
26 5% 99.3%  
27 9% 94%  
28 13% 85%  
29 19% 72%  
30 28% 52% Median
31 19% 25%  
32 4% 6%  
33 2% 2% Last Result
34 0.5% 0.6%  
35 0.1% 0.1%  
36 0% 0%  

CD&V

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the CD&V page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.1% 100%  
14 0.1% 99.9%  
15 0.4% 99.8%  
16 1.1% 99.4%  
17 3% 98%  
18 54% 96% Last Result, Median
19 19% 41%  
20 11% 23%  
21 6% 11%  
22 4% 5%  
23 0.9% 1.0%  
24 0.1% 0.1%  
25 0% 0%  

sp.a

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the sp.a page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.1% 100%  
11 0.3% 99.9%  
12 1.0% 99.6%  
13 42% 98.6% Last Result
14 19% 56% Median
15 23% 38%  
16 9% 15%  
17 4% 6%  
18 2% 2%  
19 0% 0%  

Open Vld

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Open Vld page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.3% 100%  
11 7% 99.7%  
12 38% 93%  
13 43% 55% Median
14 5% 11% Last Result
15 3% 7%  
16 2% 3%  
17 1.5% 2%  
18 0.1% 0.1%  
19 0% 0%  

Groen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Groen page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 2% 100%  
6 23% 98% Last Result
7 12% 76%  
8 36% 64% Median
9 19% 28%  
10 7% 9%  
11 2% 2%  
12 0.6% 0.6%  
13 0% 0%  

Vlaams Belang

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vlaams Belang page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.5% 100%  
2 19% 99.5%  
3 15% 81% Last Result
4 9% 66%  
5 37% 57% Median
6 15% 19%  
7 4% 5%  
8 0.4% 0.4%  
9 0% 0%  

PVDA

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the PVDA page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval | |:———:|:———–:|:——:|:———:|:———————–:|:———————–:|:———————–:|:———————–:|

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations