Opinion Poll by AQ Rate for Het Laatste Nieuws, 9–10 October 2014

Areas included: Flanders

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
N-VA 20.3% 30.0% 27.9–32.1% 27.4–32.7% 26.9–33.2% 25.9–34.3%
sp.a 8.8% 18.0% 16.3–19.8% 15.9–20.3% 15.5–20.8% 14.7–21.7%
Open Vld 9.8% 16.0% 14.4–17.7% 14.0–18.2% 13.6–18.7% 12.9–19.5%
CD&V 11.6% 14.0% 12.5–15.7% 12.1–16.1% 11.8–16.6% 11.1–17.4%
Groen 5.3% 9.0% 7.8–10.4% 7.5–10.8% 7.2–11.2% 6.7–11.9%
Vlaams Belang 3.7% 8.0% 6.9–9.4% 6.6–9.7% 6.3–10.1% 5.8–10.8%
PVDA 1.8% 3.0% 2.4–3.9% 2.2–4.2% 2.0–4.4% 1.8–4.9%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
N-VA 33 29 27–32 26–33 26–33 25–34
sp.a 13 17 15–19 14–19 14–20 13–21
Open Vld 14 14 12–17 12–18 12–18 11–18
CD&V 18 13 11–13 10–14 9–15 9–17
Groen 6 6 5–8 5–9 5–10 5–11
Vlaams Belang 3 7 5–8 5–8 5–8 3–8
PVDA 0 0 0 0 0 0

N-VA

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the N-VA page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.3% 100%  
25 0.9% 99.6%  
26 4% 98.8%  
27 7% 95%  
28 15% 87%  
29 24% 72% Median
30 20% 48%  
31 14% 28%  
32 8% 13%  
33 4% 5% Last Result
34 0.7% 1.1%  
35 0.2% 0.3%  
36 0.1% 0.1%  
37 0% 0%  

sp.a

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the sp.a page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 2% 100% Last Result
14 4% 98%  
15 16% 94%  
16 21% 78%  
17 25% 56% Median
18 20% 31%  
19 7% 11%  
20 2% 4%  
21 1.2% 1.5%  
22 0.2% 0.3%  
23 0% 0%  

Open Vld

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Open Vld page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.7% 100%  
12 11% 99.3%  
13 27% 89%  
14 12% 62% Last Result, Median
15 16% 50%  
16 13% 34%  
17 14% 21%  
18 7% 7%  
19 0.3% 0.3%  
20 0% 0%  

CD&V

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the CD&V page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0.2% 100%  
9 3% 99.8%  
10 3% 97%  
11 6% 94%  
12 12% 88%  
13 66% 76% Median
14 5% 10%  
15 3% 5%  
16 1.0% 2%  
17 0.3% 0.5%  
18 0.2% 0.2% Last Result
19 0% 0%  

Groen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Groen page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.1% 100%  
5 13% 99.9%  
6 37% 86% Last Result, Median
7 11% 49%  
8 29% 38%  
9 5% 9%  
10 3% 4%  
11 0.5% 0.7%  
12 0.2% 0.2%  
13 0% 0%  

Vlaams Belang

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vlaams Belang page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0.5% 100%  
3 0.8% 99.5% Last Result
4 1.0% 98.7%  
5 17% 98%  
6 25% 81%  
7 31% 56% Median
8 25% 25%  
9 0% 0.1%  
10 0% 0%  

PVDA

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the PVDA page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval | |:———:|:———–:|:——:|:———:|:———————–:|:———————–:|:———————–:|:———————–:|

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations