Opinion Poll by AQ Rate for Het Laatste Nieuws, 4–5 December 2014

Areas included: Flanders

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
N-VA 20.3% 28.0% 26.0–30.1% 25.4–30.7% 25.0–31.2% 24.0–32.2%
CD&V 11.6% 17.0% 15.4–18.8% 14.9–19.3% 14.5–19.8% 13.8–20.7%
sp.a 8.8% 16.0% 14.4–17.8% 14.0–18.3% 13.6–18.7% 12.9–19.6%
Groen 5.3% 14.0% 12.5–15.7% 12.1–16.1% 11.7–16.6% 11.1–17.4%
Open Vld 9.8% 12.0% 10.6–13.6% 10.2–14.0% 9.9–14.4% 9.3–15.2%
Vlaams Belang 3.7% 6.0% 5.1–7.3% 4.8–7.6% 4.6–7.9% 4.2–8.6%
PVDA 1.8% 2.0% 1.5–2.8% 1.4–3.0% 1.3–3.3% 1.0–3.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
N-VA 33 28 26–31 25–31 24–31 24–32
CD&V 18 17 13–18 13–18 13–18 13–20
sp.a 13 15 13–18 13–18 13–18 12–19
Groen 6 12 12–15 11–16 11–16 10–16
Open Vld 14 11 9–12 8–13 8–13 8–13
Vlaams Belang 3 4 2–6 2–7 2–7 1–7
PVDA 0 0 0 0 0 0

N-VA

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the N-VA page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0% 100%  
23 0.2% 99.9%  
24 4% 99.7%  
25 3% 96%  
26 12% 93%  
27 23% 81%  
28 18% 58% Median
29 16% 40%  
30 10% 24%  
31 11% 13%  
32 1.3% 2%  
33 0.2% 0.5% Last Result
34 0.2% 0.2%  
35 0% 0%  

CD&V

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the CD&V page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 11% 100%  
14 13% 89%  
15 9% 76%  
16 10% 67%  
17 11% 58% Median
18 44% 46% Last Result
19 2% 2%  
20 0.5% 0.8%  
21 0.2% 0.3%  
22 0.1% 0.1%  
23 0% 0%  

sp.a

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the sp.a page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0% 100%  
11 0.3% 99.9%  
12 0.4% 99.7%  
13 22% 99.2% Last Result
14 19% 77%  
15 32% 58% Median
16 5% 26%  
17 8% 21%  
18 13% 13%  
19 0.6% 0.8%  
20 0.1% 0.2%  
21 0% 0%  

Groen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Groen page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0% 100% Last Result
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0.3% 100%  
10 1.3% 99.6%  
11 4% 98%  
12 66% 94% Median
13 10% 28%  
14 5% 19%  
15 8% 14%  
16 6% 6%  
17 0.3% 0.3%  
18 0.1% 0.1%  
19 0% 0%  

Open Vld

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Open Vld page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0.4% 100%  
8 6% 99.6%  
9 4% 93%  
10 10% 90%  
11 41% 80% Median
12 32% 39%  
13 6% 7%  
14 0.2% 0.5% Last Result
15 0.2% 0.3%  
16 0.1% 0.1%  
17 0% 0%  

Vlaams Belang

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vlaams Belang page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.5% 100%  
1 1.3% 99.5%  
2 28% 98%  
3 20% 70% Last Result
4 7% 50% Median
5 22% 43%  
6 15% 21%  
7 5% 6%  
8 0.4% 0.4%  
9 0% 0%  

PVDA

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the PVDA page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval | |:———:|:———–:|:——:|:———:|:———————–:|:———————–:|:———————–:|:———————–:|

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations