Opinion Poll by TNS for De Standaard–VRT, 20 April–3 May 2015

Areas included: Flanders

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
N-VA 20.3% 28.5% 26.7–30.3% 26.2–30.9% 25.8–31.3% 25.0–32.2%
CD&V 11.6% 21.2% 19.7–22.9% 19.2–23.4% 18.8–23.8% 18.1–24.7%
Open Vld 9.8% 16.1% 14.7–17.6% 14.3–18.1% 14.0–18.4% 13.3–19.2%
sp.a 8.8% 14.3% 13.0–15.8% 12.7–16.2% 12.3–16.6% 11.7–17.4%
Groen 5.3% 11.6% 10.4–13.0% 10.1–13.4% 9.8–13.7% 9.3–14.4%
Vlaams Belang 3.7% 5.8% 5.0–6.9% 4.7–7.2% 4.5–7.4% 4.2–7.9%
PVDA 1.8% 1.4% 1.0–1.9% 0.9–2.1% 0.8–2.3% 0.7–2.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
N-VA 33 27 25–29 24–30 24–30 23–31
CD&V 18 19 18–22 18–22 18–22 17–23
Open Vld 14 14 12–17 12–17 12–18 12–18
sp.a 13 13 11–14 10–15 10–15 9–16
Groen 6 10 8–12 8–12 8–12 6–12
Vlaams Belang 3 2 2–5 1–5 1–5 0–6
PVDA 0 0 0 0 0 0

N-VA

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the N-VA page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 1.3% 100%  
24 5% 98.7%  
25 6% 94%  
26 14% 88%  
27 28% 74% Median
28 20% 45%  
29 19% 25%  
30 5% 6%  
31 1.3% 2%  
32 0.3% 0.4%  
33 0.1% 0.2% Last Result
34 0% 0%  

CD&V

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the CD&V page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.1% 100%  
16 0.4% 99.9%  
17 2% 99.5%  
18 28% 98% Last Result
19 21% 70% Median
20 15% 49%  
21 17% 34%  
22 15% 17%  
23 1.3% 2%  
24 0.4% 0.5%  
25 0.1% 0.1%  
26 0% 0%  

Open Vld

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Open Vld page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.4% 100%  
12 10% 99.6%  
13 38% 89%  
14 14% 51% Last Result, Median
15 15% 37%  
16 8% 22%  
17 11% 14%  
18 3% 3%  
19 0% 0%  

sp.a

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the sp.a page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 2% 100%  
10 3% 98%  
11 7% 95%  
12 13% 88%  
13 62% 75% Last Result, Median
14 7% 13%  
15 6% 7%  
16 0.8% 0.9%  
17 0.1% 0.1%  
18 0% 0%  

Groen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Groen page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0.6% 100% Last Result
7 0.7% 99.4%  
8 13% 98.7%  
9 15% 86%  
10 38% 71% Median
11 14% 33%  
12 20% 20%  
13 0% 0%  

Vlaams Belang

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vlaams Belang page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.7% 100%  
1 6% 99.3%  
2 45% 93% Median
3 18% 48% Last Result
4 7% 30%  
5 22% 24%  
6 1.2% 2%  
7 0.4% 0.4%  
8 0% 0%  

PVDA

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the PVDA page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval | |:———:|:———–:|:——:|:———:|:———————–:|:———————–:|:———————–:|:———————–:|

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations