Opinion Poll by TNS for De Standaard–VRT, 22 September–2 October 2015

Areas included: Flanders

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
N-VA 20.3% 31.1% 29.3–33.0% 28.8–33.6% 28.3–34.0% 27.5–34.9%
CD&V 11.6% 18.4% 16.9–20.0% 16.5–20.4% 16.1–20.8% 15.4–21.7%
Open Vld 9.8% 14.9% 13.6–16.4% 13.2–16.9% 12.9–17.2% 12.2–18.0%
sp.a 8.8% 13.8% 12.5–15.3% 12.2–15.7% 11.9–16.1% 11.3–16.8%
Groen 5.3% 9.9% 8.8–11.2% 8.5–11.6% 8.2–11.9% 7.7–12.6%
Vlaams Belang 3.7% 7.0% 6.0–8.1% 5.8–8.4% 5.6–8.7% 5.1–9.3%
PVDA 1.8% 3.8% 3.2–4.7% 3.0–5.0% 2.8–5.2% 2.5–5.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
N-VA 33 31 29–33 28–33 28–34 26–35
CD&V 18 18 16–18 15–19 14–20 13–21
Open Vld 14 13 12–15 12–16 11–17 11–18
sp.a 13 13 11–13 10–14 9–15 9–15
Groen 6 8 6–10 6–10 6–11 5–12
Vlaams Belang 3 5 4–7 2–7 2–7 2–8
PVDA 0 0 0 0 0 0

N-VA

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the N-VA page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0.5% 100%  
27 2% 99.5%  
28 6% 98%  
29 17% 92%  
30 21% 75%  
31 30% 54% Median
32 14% 24%  
33 6% 11% Last Result
34 3% 4%  
35 0.6% 0.9%  
36 0.2% 0.3%  
37 0.1% 0.1%  
38 0% 0%  

CD&V

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the CD&V page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 2% 100%  
14 3% 98%  
15 5% 96%  
16 10% 91%  
17 16% 80%  
18 56% 64% Last Result, Median
19 5% 8%  
20 2% 3%  
21 0.8% 1.0%  
22 0.2% 0.2%  
23 0% 0%  

Open Vld

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Open Vld page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 5% 100%  
12 23% 95%  
13 51% 72% Median
14 7% 21% Last Result
15 6% 14%  
16 3% 7%  
17 3% 4%  
18 0.6% 0.7%  
19 0% 0%  

sp.a

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the sp.a page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 3% 100%  
10 6% 97%  
11 8% 92%  
12 14% 84%  
13 61% 70% Last Result, Median
14 6% 9%  
15 3% 4%  
16 0.3% 0.4%  
17 0.1% 0.1%  
18 0% 0%  

Groen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Groen page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 1.0% 100%  
6 16% 99.0% Last Result
7 8% 83%  
8 47% 76% Median
9 15% 29%  
10 10% 14%  
11 2% 3%  
12 0.8% 0.8%  
13 0% 0%  

Vlaams Belang

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vlaams Belang page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.1% 100%  
2 6% 99.9%  
3 4% 94% Last Result
4 5% 90%  
5 47% 85% Median
6 23% 38%  
7 14% 16%  
8 2% 2%  
9 0% 0%  

PVDA

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the PVDA page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval | |:———:|:———–:|:——:|:———:|:———————–:|:———————–:|:———————–:|:———————–:|

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations